The Central American Midsummer Drought: Regional Aspects and Large-Scale Forcing*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (19) ◽  
pp. 4853-4873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Justin O. Small ◽  
Simon P. de Szoeke ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Central America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The midsummer drought (MSD) is a diminution in rainfall experienced during the middle of the rainy season in southern Mexico and Central America, as well as in the adjacent Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern Pacific seas. The aim of this paper is to describe the regional characteristics of the MSD and to propose some possible forcing mechanisms. Satellite and in situ data are used to form a composite of the evolution of a typical MSD, which highlights its coincidence with a low-level anticyclone centered over the Gulf of Mexico and associated easterly flow across Central America. The diurnal cycle of precipitation over the region is reduced in amplitude during midsummer. The MSD is also coincident with heavy precipitation over the Sierra Madre Occidental (part of the North American monsoon). Reanalysis data are used to show that the divergence of the anomalous low-level flow during the MSD is the main factor governing the variations in precipitation. A linear baroclinic model is used to show that the seasonal progression of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which moves northward following warm sea surface temperature (SST) during the early summer, and of the Atlantic subtropical high, which moves westward, are the most important remote factors that contribute toward the low-level easterly flow and divergence during the MSD. The circulation associated with the MSD precipitation deficit helps to maintain the deficit by reinforcing the low-level anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating over land also plays a role: a large thermal low over the northern United States in early summer is accompanied by enhanced subsidence over the North Atlantic. This thermal low is seen to decrease considerably in midsummer, allowing the high pressure anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to extend into the Gulf of Mexico. These anomalies are maintained until late summer, when an increase in rainfall from the surge in Atlantic tropical depressions induces anomalous surface cyclonic flow with westerlies fluxing moisture from the Pacific ITCZ toward Central America.

scholarly journals Organization of convective ascents in a warm conveyor belt

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Blanchard ◽  
Florian Pantillon ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Julien Delanoë
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Isolated Cells ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are warm, moist airstreams of extratropical cyclones leading to widespread clouds and heavy precipitation, where associated diabatic processes can influence midlatitude dynamics. Although WCBs are traditionally seen as continuous slantwise ascents, recent studies have emphasized the presence of embedded convection and the production of mesoscale bands of negative potential vorticity (PV), the impact of which on large-scale dynamics is still debated. Here, detailed cloud and wind measurements obtained with airborne Doppler radar provide unique information on the WCB of the Stalactite cyclone on 2 October 2016 during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. The measurements are complemented by a convection-permitting simulation, enabling online Lagrangian trajectories and 3-D objects clustering. The simulation reproduces well the mesoscale structure of the cyclone shown by satellite infrared observations, while the location of trajectories rising by 150 hPa during a relatively short 12 h window matches the WCB region expected from high clouds. One third of those trajectories, categorized as fast ascents, further reach a 100 hPa (2h)−1 threshold during their ascent and follow the cyclonic flow mainly at lower levels. In agreement with radar observations, convective updrafts are found in the WCB and are characterized by moderate reflectivity values up to 20 dBz and vertical velocities above 0.3 m s−1. Updraft objects and fast ascents consistently show three main types of convection in the WCB: (i) frontal convection along the surface cold front and the western edge of the low-level jet; (ii) banded convection at about 2 km altitude along the eastern edge of the low-level jet; (iii) mid-level convection below the upper-level jet. Mesoscale PV dipoles with strong positive and negative values are located in the vicinity of convective ascents and appear to accelerate both low-level and upper-level jets. Both convective ascents and negative PV organize into structures with coherent shape, location and evolution, thus suggesting a dynamical linkage. The results show that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.

scholarly journals Organization of convective ascents in a warm conveyor belt

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 617-634
Author(s):  
Nicolas Blanchard ◽  
Florian Pantillon ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Julien Delanoë
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Isolated Cells ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level Jet ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are warm, moist airstreams of extratropical cyclones leading to widespread clouds and heavy precipitation, where associated diabatic processes can influence midlatitude dynamics. Although WCBs are traditionally seen as continuous slantwise ascents, recent studies have emphasized the presence of embedded convection, the impact of which on large-scale dynamics is still debated. Here, detailed cloud and wind measurements obtained with airborne Doppler radar provide unique information on the WCB of the Stalactite cyclone on 2 October 2016 during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. The measurements are complemented by a convection-permitting simulation, enabling online Lagrangian trajectories and 3-D objects clustering. Trajectories rising by 150 hPa during a relatively short 12 h window are identified as ascents and examined in the WCB region. One-third take an anticyclonic turn at upper levels, while two-thirds follow the cyclonic flow at lower levels. Identified trajectories that reach a 100 hPa (2 h)−1 threshold are further categorized as fast ascents. They represent one-third of the ascents and are located at lower levels mainly. Both radar observations and simulation reveal the presence of convective updrafts in the WCB region, which are characterized by moderate reflectivity values up to 20 dBZ. Fast ascents and updraft objects with vertical velocities above 0.3 m s−1 consistently show three main types of convection in the WCB region: (i) frontal convection along the surface cold front and the western edge of the low-level jet, (ii) banded convection at about 2 km altitude along the eastern edge of the low-level jet, and (iii) mid-level convection below the upper-level jet. Frontal and banded convection result in shallow ascents, while mid-level convection contributes to the anticyclonic WCB outflow. The results emphasize that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.

scholarly journals Synoptic–Dynamic Climatology of Large-Scale Cyclones in the North Pacific

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (12) ◽  
pp. 3567-3587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda M. Keller ◽  
Michael C. Morgan ◽  
David D. Houghton ◽  
Ross A. Lazear
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
Maximum Frequency ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract A climatology of large-scale, persistent cyclonic flow anomalies over the North Pacific was constructed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) global reanalysis data for the cold season (November–March) for 1977–2003. These large-scale cyclone (LSC) events were identified as those periods for which the filtered geopotential height anomaly at a given analysis point was at least 100 m below its average for the date for at least 10 days. This study identifies a region of maximum frequency of LSC events at 45°N, 160°W [key point 1 (KP1)] for the entire period. This point is somewhat to the east of regions of maximum height variability noted in previous studies. A second key point (37.5°N, 162.5°W) was defined as the maximum in LSC frequency for the period after November 1988. The authors show that the difference in location of maximum LSC frequency is linked to a climate regime shift at about that time. LSC events occur with a maximum frequency in the period from November through January. A composite 500-hPa synoptic evolution, constructed relative to the event onset, suggests that the upper-tropospheric precursor for LSC events emerges from a quasi-stationary long-wave trough positioned off the east coast of Asia. In the middle and lower troposphere, the events are accompanied by cold thickness advection from a thermal trough over northeastern Asia. The composite mean sea level evolution reveals a cyclone that deepens while moving from the coast of Asia into the central Pacific. As the cyclone amplifies, it slows down in the central Pacific and becomes nearly stationary within a day of onset. Following onset, at 500 hPa, a stationary wave pattern, resembling the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern, emerges with a ridge immediately downstream (over western North America) and a trough farther downstream (from the southeast coast of the United States into the western North Atlantic). The implications for the resulting sensible weather and predictability of the flow are discussed. An adjoint-derived sensitivity study was conducted for one of the KP1 cases identified in the climatology. The results provide dynamical confirmation of the LSC precursor identification for the events. The upper-tropospheric precursor is seen to play a key role not only in the onset of the lower-tropospheric height falls and concomitant circulation increases, but also in the eastward extension of the polar jet across the Pacific. The evolution of the forecast sensitivities suggest that LSC events are not a manifestation of a modal instability of the time mean flow, but rather the growth of a favorably configured perturbation on the flow.

scholarly journals Toward Identifying Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Using North American Weather Regimes

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1875
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Nicolas Vigaud ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Graphical Tool

Abstract Large-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the North American sector, from the NCEP CFSv2 model. Four large-scale daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height data using K-means clustering are used as a low-dimensional basis for diagnosing the model’s forecasts up to 45 days ahead. On average, hindcast skill in regime space is found to be limited to 10–15 days ahead, in terms of anomaly correlation of 5-day averages of regime counts, over the 1999–2010 period. However, skill up to 30 days ahead is identified in individual winters, and intraseasonal episodes of high skill are identified using a forecast-evolution graphical tool. A striking vacillation between the West Coast and Pacific ridge patterns during December–January 2008/09 is shown to be predicted 20–25 days in advance, illustrating the possibility to identify “forecasts of opportunity” when subseasonal forecast skill is much higher than the average. The forecast-evolution tool also provides insight into the poor seasonal forecasts of California precipitation by operational centers during the 2015/16 El Niño winter. The Pacific trough regime is shown to be greatly overpredicted beyond 1–2 weeks in advance during the 2015/16 winter, with weather-scale features dominating the forecast evolution at shorter lead times. A similar though less extreme situation took place during the weaker El Niño of 2009/10, with the Pacific trough overforecast at S2S lead times.

scholarly journals Assessment of tsunami hazards for the Central American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1889-1903 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Brizuela ◽  
A. Armigliato ◽  
S. Tinti
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Central American ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Extended Region ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Northern Peru ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Tsunami Run Up

Abstract. Central America (CA), from Guatemala to Panama, has been struck by at least 52 tsunamis between 1539 and 2013, and in the extended region from Mexico to northern Peru (denoted as ECA, Extended Central America in this paper) the number of recorded tsunamis in the same time span is more than 100, most of which were triggered by earthquakes located in the Middle American Trench that runs parallel to the Pacific coast. The most severe event in the catalogue is the tsunami that occurred on 2 September 1992 off Nicaragua, with run-up measured in the range of 5–10 m in several places along the Nicaraguan coast. The aim of this paper is to assess the tsunami hazard on the Pacific coast of this extended region, and to this purpose a hybrid probabilistic-deterministic analysis is performed, that is adequate for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. More specifically, the probabilistic approach is used to compute the Gutenberg–Richter coefficients of the main seismic tsunamigenic zones of the area and to estimate the annual rate of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes and their corresponding return period. The output of the probabilistic part of the method is taken as input by the deterministic part, which is applied to calculate the tsunami run-up distribution along the coast.

scholarly journals Contrasting stable water isotope signals from convective and large-scale precipitation phases of a heavy precipitation event in southern Italy during HyMeX IOP 13: a modelling perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 7487-7506
Author(s):  
Keun-Ok Lee ◽  
Franziska Aemisegger ◽  
Stephan Pfahl ◽  
Cyrille Flamant ◽  
Jean-Lionel Lacour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Cold Front ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Water Isotopes ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Stable Water Isotopes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation Event ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract. The dynamical context and moisture transport pathways embedded in large-scale flow and associated with a heavy precipitation event (HPE) in southern Italy (SI) are investigated with the help of stable water isotopes (SWIs) based on a purely numerical framework. The event occurred during the Intensive Observation Period (IOP) 13 of the field campaign of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) on 15 and 16 October 2012, and SI experienced intense rainfall of 62.4 mm over 27 h with two precipitation phases during this event. The first one (P1) was induced by convective precipitation ahead of a cold front, while the second one (P2) was mainly associated with precipitation induced by large-scale uplift. The moisture transport and processes responsible for the HPE are analysed using a simulation with the isotope-enabled regional numerical model COSMOiso. The simulation at a horizontal grid spacing of about 7 km over a large domain (about 4300 km ×3500 km) allows the isotopes signal to be distinguished due to local processes or large-scale advection. Backward trajectory analyses based on this simulation show that the air parcels arriving in SI during P1 originate from the North Atlantic and descend within an upper-level trough over the north-western Mediterranean. The descending air parcels reach elevations below 1 km over the sea and bring dry and isotopically depleted air (median δ18O ≤-25 ‰, water vapour mixing ratio q≤2 g kg−1) close to the surface, which induces strong surface evaporation. These air parcels are rapidly enriched in SWIs (δ18O ≥-14 ‰) and moistened (q≥8 g kg−1) over the Tyrrhenian Sea by taking up moisture from surface evaporation and potentially from evaporation of frontal precipitation. Thereafter, the SWI-enriched low-level air masses arriving upstream of SI are convectively pumped to higher altitudes, and the SWI-depleted moisture from higher levels is transported towards the surface within the downdrafts ahead of the cold front over SI, producing a large amount of convective precipitation in SI. Most of the moisture processes (i.e. evaporation, convective mixing) related to the HPE take place during the 18 h before P1 over SI. A period of 4 h later, during the second precipitation phase P2, the air parcels arriving over SI mainly originate from north Africa. The strong cyclonic flow around the eastward-moving upper-level trough induces the advection of a SWI-enriched African moisture plume towards SI and leads to large-scale uplift of the warm air mass along the cold front. This lifts moist and SWI-enriched air (median δ18O ≥-16 ‰, median q≥6 g kg−1) and leads to gradual rain out of the air parcels over Italy. Large-scale ascent in the warm sector ahead of the cold front takes place during the 72 h preceding P2 in SI. This work demonstrates how stable water isotopes can yield additional insights into the variety of thermodynamic mechanisms occurring at the mesoscale and synoptic scale during the formation of a HPE.

The Intra-Americas Springtime Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Dipole as Fingerprint of Remote Influences

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Muñoz ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
David Enfield
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Caribbean Sea ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract The influence of teleconnections on the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS; Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) has been mostly analyzed from the perspective of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Caribbean Sea (the latter being an extension of the tropical North Atlantic). This emphasis has overlooked both 1) the influence of other teleconnections on the IAS and 2) which teleconnections affect the Gulf of Mexico climate variability. In this study the different fingerprints that major teleconnection patterns have on the IAS during boreal spring are analyzed. Indices of teleconnection patterns are regressed and correlated to observations of oceanic temperature and atmospheric data from reanalyses and observational datasets. It is found that the Pacific teleconnection patterns that influence the IAS SSTs do so by affecting the Gulf of Mexico in an opposite manner to the Caribbean Sea. These analyzed Pacific climate patterns are the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and ENSO. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is related to a lesser degree with the north–south SST anomaly dipole than are Pacific teleconnection patterns. It is also found that the IAS influence from the midlatitude Pacific mostly affects the Gulf of Mexico, whereas the influence from the tropical Pacific mostly affects the Caribbean Sea. Therefore, the combination of a warm ENSO event and a positive PNA event induces a strong IAS SST anomaly dipole between the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea during spring. By calculating an index that represents the IAS SST anomaly dipole, it is found that the dipole forms mostly in response to changes in the air–sea heat fluxes. In the Gulf of Mexico the dominant mechanisms are the air–sea differences in humidity and temperature. The changes in shortwave radiation also contribute to the dipole of net air–sea heat flux. The changes in shortwave radiation arise, in part, by the cloudiness triggered by the air–sea differences in humidity, and also by the changes in the convection cell that connects the Amazon basin to the IAS. Weaker Amazon convection (e.g., in the event of a warm ENSO event) reduces the subsidence over the IAS, and henceforth the IAS cloudiness increases (and the shortwave radiation decreases). This study contributes to a greater understanding of how the IAS is influenced by different Pacific and Atlantic teleconnections.

Transport into the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere over North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyue Wang ◽  
William Randel ◽  
Yutian Wu
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Diffusion ◽  
Dynamical Mechanism ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The North ◽  
Budget Analysis

<p>We study fast transport of air from the surface into the North American upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) during northern summer with a large ensemble of Boundary Impulse Response (BIR) idealized tracers. Specifically, we implement 90 pulse tracers at the Northern Hemisphere surface and release them during July and August months in the fully coupled Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) version 5. We focus on the most efficient transport cases above southern U.S. (10°-40°N, 60°-140°W) at 100 hPa with modal ages fall below 10th percentile. We examine transport-related terms, including resolved dynamics computed inside model transport scheme and parameterized processes (vertical diffusion and convective parameterization), to pin down the dominant dynamical mechanism. Our results show during the fastest transport, air parcels enter ULTS directly above the Gulf of Mexico. The budget analysis indicates that strong deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico fast uplift the tracer into 200 hPa, and then is vertically advected into 100 hPa and circulated by the enhanced large-scale anticyclone. </p>

Recurrent Supersynoptic Evolution of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 575-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott J. Weaver ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Analysis Strategy ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
North American Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

Abstract The evolution of supersynoptic (i.e., pentad) Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) variability, its precipitation impacts, and large-scale circulation context are analyzed in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)—a high-resolution precipitation-assimilating dataset—and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. The analysis strategy leans on the extended EOF technique, which targets both spatial and temporal recurrence of a variability episode. Pentad GPLLJ variability structures are found to be spatially similar to those in the monthly analysis. The temporal evolution of the supersynoptic GPLLJ-induced precipitation anomalies reveal interesting lead and lag relationships highlighted by GPLLJ variability-leading precipitation anomalies. Interestingly, similar temporal phasing of the GPLLJ and precipitation anomalies were operative during the 1993 (1988) floods (drought) over the Great Plains, indicating the importance of these submonthly GPLLJ variability modes in the instigation of extreme hydroclimatic episodes. The northward-shifted (dry) GPLLJ variability mode is linked to large-scale circulation variations emanating from remote regions that are modified by interaction with the Rocky Mountains, suggesting that the supersynoptic GPLLJ fluctuations may have their origin in orographic modulation of baroclinic development.

scholarly journals Potential Large-Scale Forcing Mechanisms Driving Enhanced North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity since the Mid-1990s

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1377-1397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Xingyi Duan ◽  
G. B. Raga ◽  
Fengpeng Sun
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Recent Increase ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms ◽  
Interdecadal Changes

A significant increase of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is observed over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin during the recent decades (1995–2014). In this study, the changes in large-scale controls of the NATL TC activity are compared between two periods, one before and one since 1995, when a regime change is observed. The results herein suggest that the significantly enhanced NATL TC frequency is related mainly to the combined effect of changes in the magnitudes of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic factors and their association with TC frequency. Interdecadal changes in the role of vertical wind shear and local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the NATL appear to be two important contributors to the recent increase of NATL TC frequency. Low-level vorticity plays a relatively weak role in the recent increase of TC frequency. These changes in the role of large-scale factors largely depend on interdecadal changes of tropical SST anomalies (SSTAs). Enhanced low-level westerlies to the east of the positive SSTAs have been observed over the tropical Atlantic since 1995, with a pattern nearly opposite to that seen before 1995. Moreover, the large-scale contributors to the NATL TC frequency increase since 1995 are likely related to both local and remote SSTAs. Quantification of the impacts of local and remote SSTAs on the increase of TC frequency over the NATL basin and the physical mechanisms require numerical simulations and further observational analyses.

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