Satellite and Aircraft Observations of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (9) ◽  
pp. 3406-3420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth R. Sanabia ◽  
Bradford S. Barrett ◽  
Nicholas P. Celone ◽  
Zachary D. Cornelius
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Radial Profiles ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycle ◽  
Flight Level ◽  
Cloud Tops ◽  
Replacement Cycle

Abstract Satellite and aircraft observations of the concurrent evolution of cloud-top brightness temperatures (BTs) and the surface and flight-level wind fields were examined before and during an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) as part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS08) field campaign. The structural evolution of deep convection through the life cycle of the ERC was clearly evident in the radial variation of positive water vapor (WV) minus infrared (IR) brightness temperature differences over the 96-h period. Within this framework, the ERC was divided into six broadly defined stages, wherein convective processes (including eyewall development and decay) were analyzed and then validated using microwave data. Dual maxima in aircraft wind speeds and geostationary satellite BTs along flight transects through Sinlaku were used to document the temporal evolution of the ERC within the TC inner core. Negative correlations were found between IR BTs and surface wind speeds, indicating that colder cloud tops were associated with stronger surface winds. Spatial lags indicated that the strongest surface winds were located radially inward of both the flight-level winds and coldest cloud tops. Finally, timing of the ERC was observed equally in IR and WV minus IR (WVIR) BTs with one exception. Decay of the inner eyewall was detected earlier in the WVIR data. These findings highlight the potential utility of WVIR and IR BT radial profiles, particularly so for basins without active aircraft weather reconnaissance programs such as the western North Pacific.

Estimating Maximum Surface Winds from Hurricane Reconnaissance Measurements

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 868-883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Powell ◽  
Eric W. Uhlhorn ◽  
Jeffrey D. Kepert
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Reduction Factor ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Wind Maximum ◽  
Maximum Surface ◽  
Radial Profiles ◽  
Flight Level ◽  
Reduction Factors

Abstract Radial profiles of surface winds measured by the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) are compared to radial profiles of flight-level winds to determine the slant ratio of the maximum surface wind speed to the maximum flight-level wind speed, for flight altitude ranges of 2–4 km. The radius of maximum surface wind is found on average to be 0.875 of the radius of the maximum flight-level wind, and very few cases have a surface wind maximum at greater radius than the flight-level maximum. The mean slant reduction factor is 0.84 with a standard deviation of 0.09 and varies with storm-relative azimuth from a maximum of 0.89 on the left side of the storm to a minimum of 0.79 on the right side. Larger slant reduction factors are found in small storms with large values of inertial stability and small values of relative angular momentum at the flight-level radius of maximum wind, which is consistent with Kepert’s recent boundary layer theories. The global positioning system (GPS) dropwindsonde-based reduction factors that are assessed using this new dataset have a high bias and substantially larger RMS errors than the new technique. A new regression model for the slant reduction factor based upon SFMR data is presented, and used to make retrospective estimates of maximum surface wind speeds for significant Atlantic basin storms, including Hurricanes Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992), and Mitch (1998).

scholarly journals The Probability Distribution of Sea Surface Wind Speeds: Effects of Variable Surface Stratification and Boundary Layer Thickness

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5151-5162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Hugh Monahan
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Layer Thickness ◽  
Boundary Layer Thickness ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Sea Surface Wind ◽  
Variable Surface

Abstract Air–sea exchanges of momentum, energy, and material substances of fundamental importance to the variability of the climate system are mediated by the character of the turbulence in the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Sea surface winds influence, and are influenced by, these fluxes. The probability density function (pdf) of sea surface wind speeds p(w) is a mathematical object describing the variability of surface winds that arises from the physics of the turbulent atmospheric planetary boundary layer. Previous mechanistic models of the pdf of sea surface wind speeds have considered the momentum budget of an atmospheric layer of fixed thickness and neutral stratification. The present study extends this analysis, using an idealized model to consider the influence of boundary layer thickness variations and nonneutral surface stratification on p(w). It is found that surface stratification has little direct influence on p(w), while variations in boundary layer thickness bring the predictions of the model into closer agreement with the observations. Boundary layer thickness variability influences the shape of p(w) in two ways: through episodic downward mixing of momentum into the boundary layer from the free atmosphere and through modulation of the importance (relative to other tendencies) of turbulent momentum fluxes at the surface and the boundary layer top. It is shown that the second of these influences dominates over the first.

scholarly journals The Unconventional Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Hurricane Ophelia (2005)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naufal Razin ◽  
Michael M. Bell
Keyword(s):  
Intensity Change ◽  
Wind Maximum ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycle ◽  
Flight Level ◽  
Intensive Observation ◽  
Observation Period ◽  
Replacement Cycle

AbstractHurricane Ophelia (2005) underwent an unconventional eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) as it was a Category 1 storm located over cold sea surface temperatures near 23°C. The ERC was analyzed using airborne radar, flight-level, and dropsonde data collected during the Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment (RAINEX) intensive observation period on 11 September 2005. Results showed that the spin-up of the secondary tangential wind maximum during the ERC can be attributed to the efficient convergence of absolute angular momentum by the mid-level inflow of Ophelia’s dominantly stratiform rainbands. This secondary tangential wind maximum strongly contributed to the azimuthal mean tangential wind field, which is conducive for increased low-level supergradient winds and corresponding outflow. The low-level supergradient forcing enhanced convergence to form a secondary eyewall. Ophelia provides a unique example of an ERC occurring in a weaker storm with predominantly stratiform rainbands, suggesting an important role of stratiform precipitation processes in the development of secondary eyewalls.

scholarly journals Comparison of ARCHER MPERC to NHC Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Pulmano ◽  
Leya Joykutty
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycle ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycles ◽  
National Hurricane Center ◽  
Joint Typhoon Warning Center ◽  
Replacement Cycle

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) are events that occur in intense tropical cyclones (TCs) and are difficult to predict.  An ERC event involves a secondary outer eyewall that surrounds the inner eyewall.  The outer eyewall slowly moves towards the eye and weakens the inner eyewall, eventually replacing the inner eyewall.  During this process, wind speeds lower and the structure of a TC becomes disorganized, further weakening the storm.  TCs often restrengthen after an ERC.  Little is known about the process and as such, poses an obstacle to forecasters.  The Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) is an algorithm that uses 89-95 GHz passive microwave imagery and intensity estimates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to predict the possibility of an ERC.  The effectiveness and ability of ARCHER MPERC was analyzed and compared to the NHC’s official reports on all Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones from 2017 to 2019.   MPERC ultimately predicted seventeen ERCs in nine tropical cyclones.  Of those, seven were valid ERCs.  The algorithm works well, predicting approximately 41% of the total number of predictions correctly.  However, MPERC did not predict five ERCs that were cited by the NHC.  It was further found that it was true that MPERC produces incorrect results in sheared and dry environments.

scholarly journals An Assessment of NASA’s GMAO MERRA-2 Reanalysis Surface Winds

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8261-8281 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
Surface Wind ◽  
The Other ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ocean Surface Winds ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Global Surface

Abstract The quality of MERRA-2 surface wind fields was assessed by comparing them with 10 years of measurements from a wide range of surface wind observing platforms. This assessment includes a comparison of MERRA-2 global surface wind fields with the ones from its predecessor, MERRA, to assess if GMAO’s latest reanalyses improved the representation of the global surface winds. At the same time, surface wind fields from other modern reanalyses—NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55—were also included in the comparisons to evaluate MERRA-2 global surface wind fields in the context of its contemporary reanalyses. Results show that MERRA-2, CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 show similar error metrics while MERRA consistently shows the highest errors. Thus, when compared with wind observations, the accuracy of MERRA-2 surface wind fields represents a clear improvement over its predecessor MERRA and is in line with the other contemporary reanalyses in terms of the representation of global near-surface wind fields. All reanalyses showed a tendency to underestimate ocean surface winds (particularly in the tropics) and, oppositely, to overestimate inland surface winds (except JRA-55, which showed a global tendency to underestimate the wind speeds); to represent the wind direction rotated clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere (positive bias) and anticlockwise in the Southern Hemisphere (negative bias), with the exception of JRA-55; and to show higher errors near the poles and in the ITCZ, particularly in the equatorial western coasts of Central America and Africa. However, MERRA-2 showed substantially lower wind errors in the poles when compared with the other reanalyses.

scholarly journals High-resolution observations of the near-surface wind field over an isolated mountain and in a steep river canyon

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 3785-3801 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. W. Butler ◽  
N. S. Wagenbrenner ◽  
J. M. Forthofer ◽  
B. K. Lamb ◽  
K. S. Shannon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Wind Flow ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Synoptic Forcing

Abstract. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating wind flow at relatively fine spatial resolutions (e.g., ~ 100 m); however, there are very limited observational data available for evaluating these high-resolution models. This study presents high-resolution surface wind data sets collected from an isolated mountain and a steep river canyon. The wind data are presented in terms of four flow regimes: upslope, afternoon, downslope, and a synoptically driven regime. There were notable differences in the data collected from the two terrain types. For example, wind speeds on the isolated mountain increased with distance upslope during upslope flow, but generally decreased with distance upslope at the river canyon site during upslope flow. In a downslope flow, wind speed did not have a consistent trend with position on the isolated mountain, but generally increased with distance upslope at the river canyon site. The highest measured speeds occurred during the passage of frontal systems on the isolated mountain. Mountaintop winds were often twice as high as wind speeds measured on the surrounding plain. The highest speeds measured in the river canyon occurred during late morning hours and were from easterly down-canyon flows, presumably associated with surface pressure gradients induced by formation of a regional thermal trough to the west and high pressure to the east. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects (speed-up over ridges and decreased speeds on leeward sides of terrain obstacles) that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings suggest that traditional operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds on sub-grid scales in complex terrain. Measurement data can be found at http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications.

scholarly journals Comparison of the third-generation Japanese ocean flux data set J-OFURO3 with numerical simulations of Typhoon Dujuan (2015) traveling south of Okinawa

2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 419-437
Author(s):  
Akiyoshi Wada ◽  
Hiroyuki Tomita ◽  
Shin’ichiro Kako
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Third Generation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Third ◽  
Simulated Surface

Abstract Insufficient in situ observations in high winds make it difficult to verify climatological data sets and the results of tropical cyclone (TC) simulations. Reliable data sets are necessary for developing numerical models that predict TCs more accurately. This study attempted to compare the third-generation Japanese Ocean Flux Data Sets with Use of Remote-Sensing Observations (J-OFURO3) data, with TC simulations conducted by a 2 km mesh coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model. This is a case study of Typhoon Dujuan (2015) and the area of approximately 20̊N, 130̊E, south of Okinawa, was selected. The comparison reveals that J-OFURO3 data are reliable for verifying the atmospheric and oceanic components of TC simulations with two different initial sea surface temperature (SST) conditions, although the blank area remains within the inner core area for air temperature, specific humidity, and latent heat flux owing to issues with the construction method. Simulated maximum surface wind speeds (MSWs) are significantly correlated with J-OFURO3 MSWs. The asymmetrical distribution of simulated surface wind speeds within the inner core area can be reproduced well in the J-OFURO3 data set. In terms of the oceanic response to the TC, TC-induced sea surface cooling was reproduced well in the J-OFURO3 data set and is consistent with the simulation results. Unlike simulated SST, simulated surface wind speeds, surface air temperature, and surface specific humidity are still inconsistent with the J-OFURO3 data, even when the J-OFURO3 SST is used as the initial condition. New algorithms, more satellite data used, and model improvement are expected in the future.

The Impact of Multisatellite Data on the Initialization and Simulation of Hurricane Lili’s (2002) Rapid Weakening Phase

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (2) ◽  
pp. 526-548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Qingnong Xiao ◽  
Patrick J. Fitzpatrick
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Outer Core ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Numerical experiments have been conducted to examine the impact of multisatellite data on the initialization and forecast of the rapid weakening of Hurricane Lili (in 2002) from 0000 UTC to landfall in Louisiana on 1300 UTC 3 October 2002. Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) 4DVAR sensitivity runs were conducted separately with QuikSCAT surface winds, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-8 (GOES-8) cloud drift–water vapor winds, and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) temperature–dewpoint sounding data to investigate their individual impact on storm track and intensity. The results were compared against a simulation initialized from a Global Forecast System background interpolated to the MM5 grid. Assimilating QuikSCAT surface wind data improves the analyzed outer-core surface winds, as well as the inner-core low-level temperature and moisture fields. Substantial adjustments of winds are noted on the periphery of the hurricane by assimilating GOES-8 satellite-derived upper-level winds. Both track forecasts initialized at 1200 UTC 2 October 2002 with four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) of QuikSCAT and GOES-8 show improvement compared to those initialized with the model background. Assimilating Aqua MODIS sounding data improves the outer-core thermodynamic features. The Aqua MODIS data has a slight impact on the track forecast, but more importantly shows evidence of impacting the model intensity predicting by retarding the incorrect prediction of intensification. All three experiments also show that bogusing of an inner-core wind vortex is required to depict the storm’s initial intensity. To properly investigate Lili’s weakening, data assimilation experiments that incorporate bogusing vortex, QuikSCAT winds, GOES-8 winds, and Aqua MODIS sounding data were performed. The 4DVAR satellite-bogus data assimilation is conducted in two consecutive 6-h windows preceding Lili’s weakening. Comparisons of the results between the experiments with and without satellite data indicated that the satellite data, particularly the Aqua MODIS sounding information, makes an immediate impact on the hurricane intensity change beyond normal bogusing procedures. The track forecast with the satellite data is also more accurate than just using bogusing alone. This study suggests that dry air intrusion played an important role in Lili’s rapid weakening. It also demonstrates the potential benefit of using satellite data in a 4DVAR context—particularly high-resolution soundings—on unusual cases like Hurricane Lili.

scholarly journals High resolution observations of the near-surface wind field over an isolated mountain and in a steep river canyon

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 16821-16863
Author(s):  
B. W. Butler ◽  
N. S. Wagenbrenner ◽  
J. M. Forthofer ◽  
B. K. Lamb ◽  
K. S. Shannon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wind Flow ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Flow Models ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Synoptic Forcing

Abstract. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating wind flow at relatively fine spatial resolutions (e.g., ∼100 m); however, there are very limited observational data available for evaluating these high resolution models. This study presents high-resolution surface wind datasets collected from an isolated mountain and a steep river canyon. The wind data are presented in terms of four flow regimes: upslope, afternoon, downslope, and a synoptically-driven regime. There were notable differences in the data collected from the two terrain types. For example, wind speeds collected on the isolated mountain increased with distance upslope during upslope flow, but generally decreased with distance upslope at the river canyon site during upslope flow. Wind speed did not have a simple, consistent trend with position on the slope during the downslope regime on the isolated mountain, but generally increased with distance upslope at the river canyon site. The highest measured speeds occurred during the passage of frontal systems on the isolated mountain. Mountaintop winds were often twice as high as wind speeds measured on the surrounding plain. The highest speeds measured in the river canyon occurred during late morning hours and were from easterly downcanyon flows, presumably associated with surface pressure gradients induced by formation of a regional thermal trough to the west and high pressure to the east. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects (speed-up over ridges and decreased speeds on leeward sides of terrain obstacles) that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings suggest that traditional operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds at sub-grid scales in complex terrain. The data from this effort are archived and available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting Surface Wind Speeds in Gravity Waves and Wake Lows

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1664-1679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy A. Coleman ◽  
Kevin R. Knupp
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wind Damage ◽  
Pressure Gradients ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Multiple Case ◽  
Speed Of Propagation

Abstract Ducted gravity waves and wake lows have been associated with numerous documented cases of “severe” winds (>25 m s−1) and wind damage. These winds are associated with the pressure perturbations and transient mesoscale pressure gradients occurring in many gravity waves and wake lows. However, not all wake lows and gravity waves produce significant winds nor wind damage. In this paper, the factors that affect the surface winds produced by ducted gravity waves and wake lows are reviewed and examined. It is shown theoretically that the factors most conducive to high surface winds include a large-amplitude pressure disturbance, a slow intrinsic speed of propagation, and an ambient wind with the same sign as the pressure perturbation (i.e., a headwind for a pressure trough). Multiple case studies are presented, contrasting gravity waves and wake lows with varying amplitudes, intrinsic speeds, and background winds. In some cases high winds occurred, while in others they did not. In each case, the factor(s) responsible for significant winds, or the lack thereof, are discussed. It is hoped that operational forecasters will be able to, in some cases, compute these factors in real time, to ascertain in more detail the threat of damaging wind from an approaching ducted gravity wave or wake low.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document