scholarly journals Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of High-Impact Extratropical Cyclones

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (12) ◽  
pp. 4511-4532 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Clark Amerault
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Precipitation Kinetic ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Adjoint Sensitivity ◽  
The North

Abstract The initial state sensitivity of high-impact extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and United Kingdom is investigated using an adjoint modeling system that includes moist processes. The adjoint analysis indicates that the 48-h forecast of precipitation and high winds associated with the extratropical cyclone “Desmond” was highly sensitive to mesoscale regions of moisture at the initial time. Mesoscale moisture and potential vorticity structures along the poleward edge of an atmospheric river at the initialization time had a large impact on the development of Desmond as demonstrated with precipitation, kinetic energy, and potential vorticity response functions. Adjoint-based optimal perturbations introduced into the initial state exhibit rapidly growing amplitudes through moist energetic processes over the 48-h forecast. The sensitivity manifests as an upshear-tilted structure positioned along the cold and warm fronts. Perturbations introduced into the nonlinear and tangent linear models quickly expand vertically and interact with potential vorticity anomalies in the mid- and upper levels. Analysis of adjoint sensitivity results for the winter 2013/14 show that the moisture sensitivity magnitude at the initial time is well correlated with the kinetic energy error at the 36-h forecast time, which supports the physical significance and importance of the mesoscale regions of high moisture sensitivities.

scholarly journals Adjoint Sensitivity of North Pacific Atmospheric River Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (6) ◽  
pp. 1871-1897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
James D. Doyle ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
Reuben Demirdjian
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Adjoint Sensitivity ◽  
Optimal Perturbation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
Perturbation Growth

Abstract The initial-state sensitivity and optimal perturbation growth for 24- and 36-h forecasts of low-level kinetic energy and precipitation over California during a series of atmospheric river (AR) events that took place in early 2017 are explored using adjoint-based tools from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). This time period was part of the record-breaking winter of 2016–17 in which several high-impact ARs made landfall in California. The adjoint sensitivity indicates that both low-level winds and precipitation are most sensitive to mid- to lower-tropospheric perturbations in the initial state in and near the ARs. A case study indicates that the optimal moist perturbations occur most typically along the subsaturated edges of the ARs, in a warm conveyor belt region. The sensitivity to moisture is largest, followed by temperature and winds. A 1 g kg−1 perturbation to moisture may elicit twice as large a response in kinetic energy and precipitation as a 1 m s−1 perturbation to the zonal or meridional wind. In an average sense, the sensitivity and related optimal perturbations are very similar for the kinetic energy and precipitation response functions. However, on a case-by-case basis, differences in the sensitivity magnitude and optimal perturbation structures result in substantially different forecast perturbations, suggesting that optimal adaptive observing strategies should be metric dependent. While the nonlinear evolved perturbations are usually smaller (by about 20%, on average) than the expected linear perturbations, the optimal perturbations are still capable of producing rapid nonlinear perturbation growth. The positive correlation between sensitivity magnitude and wind speed forecast error or precipitation forecast differences supports the relevance of adjoint-based calculations for predictability studies.

scholarly journals Adjoint Sensitivity and Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (12) ◽  
pp. 3535-3557 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Clark Amerault ◽  
Jonathan Moskaitis
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Adjoint Sensitivity ◽  
Optimal Perturbation ◽  
Sensitivity Maximum

Abstract The sensitivity of tropical cyclogenesis and subsequent intensification is explored by applying small perturbations to the initial state in the presence of organized mesoscale convection and synoptic-scale forcing using the adjoint and tangent linear models for the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The forward, adjoint, and tangent linear models are used to compare and contrast predictability characteristics for the disturbance that became Typhoon Nuri and a nondeveloping organized convective cluster in the western Pacific during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) experiments. The adjoint diagnostics indicate that the intensity (e.g., maximum surface wind speed, minimum surface pressure) of a tropical disturbance is very sensitive to perturbations in the moisture and temperature fields and to a lesser degree the wind fields. The highest-resolution adjoint simulations (grid increment of 13 km) indicate that the most efficient intensification is through moistening in the lower and middle levels and heating in banded regions that are coincident with vorticity maxima in the initial state. Optimal adjoint perturbations exhibit rapid growth for the Nuri case and only modest growth for the nondeveloping system. The adjoint results suggest that Nuri was near the threshold for development, indicative of low predictability. The low-level sensitivity maximum and tendency for optimal perturbation growth to extend vertically through the troposphere are consistent with a “bottom up” development process of TC genesis, although a secondary midlevel sensitivity maximum is present as well. Growth originates at small scales and projects onto the scale of the vortex, a manifestation of perturbations that project onto organized convection embedded in regions of cyclonic vorticity.

scholarly journals Correlation between Buoyancy Flux, Dissipation and Potential Vorticity in Rotating Stratified Turbulence

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
Duane Rosenberg ◽  
Annick Pouquet ◽  
Raffaele Marino
Keyword(s):  
Energy Dissipation ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Isotropic Turbulence ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Buoyancy Flux ◽  
Turbulent Regime ◽  
Stratified Turbulence ◽  
Low Dissipation ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

We study in this paper the correlation between the buoyancy flux, the efficiency of energy dissipation and the linear and nonlinear components of potential vorticity, PV, a point-wise invariant of the Boussinesq equations, contrasting the three identified regimes of rotating stratified turbulence, namely wave-dominated, wave–eddy interactions and eddy-dominated. After recalling some of the main novel features of these flows compared to homogeneous isotropic turbulence, we specifically analyze three direct numerical simulations in the absence of forcing and performed on grids of 10243 points, one in each of these physical regimes. We focus in particular on the link between the point-wise buoyancy flux and the amount of kinetic energy dissipation and of linear and nonlinear PV. For flows dominated by waves, we find that the highest joint probability is for minimal kinetic energy dissipation (compared to the buoyancy flux), low dissipation efficiency and low nonlinear PV, whereas for flows dominated by nonlinear eddies, the highest correlation between dissipation and buoyancy flux occurs for weak flux and high localized nonlinear PV. We also show that the nonlinear potential vorticity is strongly correlated with high dissipation efficiency in the turbulent regime, corresponding to intermittent events, as observed in the atmosphere and oceans.

Trends and Variability of North American Cool-Season Extratropical Cyclones: 1979–2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Fritzen ◽  
Victoria Lang ◽  
Vittorio A. Gensini
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
The North ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Log Linear

AbstractExtratropical cyclones are the primary driver of sensible weather conditions across the mid-latitudes of North America, often generating various types of precipitation, gusty non-convective winds, and severe convective storms throughout portions of the annual cycle. Given ongoing modifications of the zonal atmospheric thermal gradient due to anthropogenic forcing, analyzing the historical characteristics of these systems presents an important research question. Using the North American Regional Reanalysis, boreal cool-season (October–April) extratropical cyclones for the period 1979–2019 were identified, tracked, and classified based on their genesis location. Additionally, bomb cyclones—extratropical cyclones that recorded a latitude normalized pressure fall of 24 hPa in 24-hr—were identified and stratified for additional analysis. Cyclone lifespan across the domain exhibits a log-linear relationship, with 99% of all cyclones tracked lasting less than 8 days. On average, ≈ 270 cyclones were tracked across the analysis domain per year, with an average of ≈ 18 year−1 being classified as bomb cyclones. The average number of cyclones in the analysis domain has decreased in the last 20 years from 290 year−1 during the period 1979–1999 to 250 year−1 during the period 2000–2019. Spatially, decreasing trends in the frequency of cyclone track counts were noted across a majority of the analysis domain, with the most significant decreases found in Canada’s Northwest Territories, Colorado, and east of the Graah mountain range. No significant interannual or spatial trends were noted with bomb cyclone frequency.

scholarly journals Spatial interactions between saithe (Pollachius virens) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the North Sea

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 1342-1355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xochitl Cormon ◽  
Christophe Loots ◽  
Sandrine Vaz ◽  
Youen Vermard ◽  
Paul Marchal
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Trawl Survey ◽  
Spatial Interactions ◽  
Merluccius Merluccius ◽  
The North ◽  
Sediment Types ◽  
The North Sea

Spatial interactions between saithe (Pollachius virens) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) were investigated in the North Sea. Saithe is a well-established species in the North Sea, while occurrence of the less common hake has recently increased in the area. Spatial dynamics of these two species and their potential spatial interactions were explored using binomial generalized linear models (GLM) applied to the International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1991 to 2012. Models included different types of variables: (i) abiotic variables including sediment types, temperature, and bathymetry; (ii) biotic variables including potential competitors and potential preys presence; and (iii) spatial variables. The models were reduced and used to predict and map probable habitats of saithe, hake but also, for the first time in the North Sea, the distribution of the spatial overlap between these two species. Changes in distribution patterns of these two species and of their overlap were also investigated by comparing species’ presence and overlap probabilities predicted over an early (1991–1996) and a late period (2007–2012). The results show an increase in the probability over time of the overlap between saithe and hake along with an expansion towards the southwest and Scottish waters. These shifts follow trends observed in temperature data and might be indirectly induced by climate changes. Saithe, hake, and their overlap are positively influenced by potential preys and/or competitors, which confirms spatial co-occurrence of the species concerned and leads to the questions of predator–prey relationships and competition. Finally, the present study provides robust predictions concerning the spatial distribution of saithe, hake, and of their overlap in the North Sea, which may be of interest for fishery managers.

scholarly journals Potential Vorticity Diagnostics to Quantify Effects of Latent Heating in Extratropical Cyclones. Part I: Methodology

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (11) ◽  
pp. 3567-3590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Büeler ◽  
Stephan Pfahl
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Strongly Coupled ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Diabatic Processes

Abstract Extratropical cyclones develop because of baroclinic instability, but their intensification is often substantially amplified by diabatic processes, most importantly, latent heating (LH) through cloud formation. Although this amplification is well understood for individual cyclones, there is still need for a systematic and quantitative investigation of how LH affects cyclone intensification in different, particularly warmer and moister, climates. For this purpose, the authors introduce a simple diagnostic to quantify the contribution of LH to cyclone intensification within the potential vorticity (PV) framework. The two leading terms in the PV tendency equation, diabatic PV modification and vertical advection, are used to derive a diagnostic equation to explicitly calculate the fraction of a cyclone’s positive lower-tropospheric PV anomaly caused by LH. The strength of this anomaly is strongly coupled to cyclone intensity and the associated impacts in terms of surface weather. To evaluate the performance of the diagnostic, sensitivity simulations of 12 Northern Hemisphere cyclones with artificially modified LH are carried out with a numerical weather prediction model. Based on these simulations, it is demonstrated that the PV diagnostic captures the mean sensitivity of the cyclones’ PV structure to LH as well as parts of the strong case-to-case variability. The simple and versatile PV diagnostic will be the basis for future climatological studies of LH effects on cyclone intensification.

scholarly journals The relative effect of altitude and aspect on saxicolous lichen communities at mountain summits from central-west of Argentina

Rodriguésia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Martín Costas ◽  
Norma Canton ◽  
Juan Manuel Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
Relative Effect ◽  
Lichen Species ◽  
Substrate Type ◽  
Rock Outcrops ◽  
The North ◽  
Relative Cover ◽  
North And South

Abstract The altitudinal patterns of lichen communities in altitudinal gradients are very variable. The changes that occur along the mountains depend on climatic factors but also on microsite variables such as substrate type and aspect. The effect of altitude and aspect on richness, cover and composition of saxicolous lichens communities along an elevation gradient in extra Andean mountains from the central-west of Argentina was studied. Rock outcrops on the north and south aspect of three mountain summits distributed between 2,500 and 4,500 m.a.s.l. were sampled. Lichen species present in a 20 × 20 cm square were identified and the relative cover was measured using digital photography. Richness, cover and composition were analyzed through linear models and multivariate analysis. Fifty-eight saxicolous lichen species were identified between the three sites. Richness and cover were maximum at middle altitude. Also compositional differences among communities of each mountain summit were found. Finally, the effect of the aspect was significant at lower altitudes for cover and composition.

scholarly journals Inversion of Potential Vorticity Density

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 801-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Egger ◽  
Klaus-Peter Hoinka ◽  
Thomas Spengler
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Dimensional Problem ◽  
Absolute Vorticity ◽  
Vertical Vector ◽  
The North ◽  
And Function

Abstract Inversion of potential vorticity density with absolute vorticity and function η is explored in η coordinates. This density is shown to be the component of absolute vorticity associated with the vertical vector of the covariant basis of η coordinates. This implies that inversion of in η coordinates is a two-dimensional problem in hydrostatic flow. Examples of inversions are presented for (θ is potential temperature) and (p is pressure) with satisfactory results for domains covering the North Pole. The role of the boundary conditions is investigated and piecewise inversions are performed as well. The results shed new light on the interpretation of potential vorticity inversions.

Naval Research Laboratory Multiscale Targeting Guidance for T-PARC and TCS-08

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 526-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Richard M. Hodur ◽  
Hao Jin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Research Laboratory ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Adjoint System ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Naval Research Laboratory ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Initial State ◽  
The North

Abstract As part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the Office of Naval Research’s (ONR’s) Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS-08) experiments, a variety of real-time products were produced at the Naval Research Laboratory during the field campaign that took place from August through early October 2008. In support of the targeted observing objective, large-scale targeting guidance was produced twice daily using singular vectors (SVs) from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). These SVs were optimized for fixed regions centered over Guam, Taiwan, Japan, and two regions over the North Pacific east of Japan. During high-interest periods, flow-dependent SVs were also produced. In addition, global ensemble forecasts were produced and were useful for examining the potential downstream impacts of extratropical transitions. For mesoscale models, TC forecasts were produced using a new version of the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) developed specifically for tropical cyclone prediction (COAMPS-TC). In addition to the COAMPS-TC forecasts, mesoscale targeted observing products were produced using the COAMPS forecast and adjoint system twice daily, centered on storms of interest, at a 40-km horizontal resolution. These products were produced with 24-, 36-, and 48-h lead times. The nonhydrostatic adjoint system used during T-PARC/TCS-08 contains an exact adjoint to the explicit microphysics. An adaptive response function region was used to target favorable areas for tropical cyclone formation and development. Results indicate that forecasts of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific are very sensitive to the initial state.

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