Climate-Sensitive Decisions and Time Frames: A Cross-Sectoral Analysis of Information Pathways in the Carolinas

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 238-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsten Lackstrom ◽  
Nathan P. Kettle ◽  
Benjamin Haywood ◽  
Kirstin Dow

Abstract This paper analyzes the information dissemination pathways that support climate-sensitive decisions in North and South Carolina. The study draws from over 100 online questionnaires and follow-up interviews with leaders in the forestry, natural resources management, planning and preparedness, tourism and recreation, and water supply management sectors. Participants represented subregions within each state, different types of organizations, and organizations working at different geographic scales. The cross-sector comparison demonstrates diverse information uses across multiple time horizons and a wide range of sector-specific needs and factors that influence how and where decision makers obtain climate information. It builds upon previous research regarding climate decision making by providing a comprehensive view of the patterns of information exchange within a given region. Although all sectors draw from a common pool of federal agencies for historical and current climate data, participants consider sector-specific and local sources to be their key climate information providers. Information obtained through these sources is more likely to be trusted, accessible, and relevant for decision making. Furthermore, information sharing is largely facilitated via subregional networks, and accessing relationships with colleagues and local agency personnel is a critical component of this process. This study provides a more nuanced understanding of how climate information use varies across sectors and time frames and the decentralized nature of existing networks. These findings have important implications for future efforts to provide climate decision support to state- and local-level decision makers and highlight the need for networks and processes that meet diverse regional and sector concerns and contexts.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Edward Johnson

<p><b>The gold mining industry in Ghana is characterised by complexity in terms of its extended/sequential operations, its system-wide reach, its multiple stakeholders, and the variety of formal and informal organisations that constitute the industry. Perceptions of the industry differ considerably amongst stakeholders, depending on their stakes and interests, knowledge, understanding, involvement and agency within or without the sector. Studies of the industry to date have overlooked these diverse viewpoints and used limited-scope, single-frame analyses. However, they have highlighted wide-ranging industry issues that impact the diversity of stakeholders, which could benefit from a fuller and more comprehensive analysis.</b></p> <p>This study addresses this need by adopting a multi-framing systems-based approach. Data was examined and analysed through a variety of systems-based lenses and frames, including a stakeholder analysis (SA) frame, a causal loop modelling (CLM) frame, supply chain analysis (SCA) frame and the Theory of Constraints (TOC) Thinking Processes analytical frames lenses. First the Current Reality Tree (CRT) tool of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) was used to synthesise information from the literature examined, providing an initial provisional CRT model. Interview data was collected by sharing and seeking feedback to the CRT model at multiple levels of the industry, giving voice to stakeholders throughout the sector. Subsequent analysis used all the modelling frameworks mentioned above in a multi-framing analysis.</p> <p>In particular, the evaporating cloud (EC) tool from TOC was used to structure and develop potential solutions to conflict highlighted by the literature review, the SA, SCA and CLM. Building on this, a final CRT was developed, and a goal tree (GT) used to design the desired future whilst employing the future reality tree (FRT) to test the plausibility of solutions from the EC to deliver the desired future. The prerequisite tree (PRT) was then used to identify obstacles and intermediate objectives that must be overcome for successful transition to the desired future.</p> <p>Insights from the research shows a desire by multi-national large scale-gold mining companies and government alike to minimise adverse impacts and maximise the sector’s outcomes for key stakeholders, including those at the community level. However, the research has documented many instances of actions taken to address issues and improve outcomes that have instead resulted in unresolved dilemmas and paradoxes, failing to achieve desired outcomes.</p> <p>A number of factors have been identified as being responsible for these situations. Key amongst them is a limited understanding to deliver desired outcome for stakeholders without compromises, a focus on short-term goals, no collective effort, and arms-length/win-lose relationships amongst the Ghanaian stakeholders of the industry.</p> <p>The study’s concluding findings and results allow decision makers to benefit significantly from the study through its recommendations and showcasing of tools that may allow them to make sound decisions and address endogenous and exogenous cause-effect relationships limiting desirable outcomes from actions taken.</p> <p>Theoretical and knowledge-based contributions are made by conceptualising and offering evidence for three key factors or dimensions that can explain a significant number of issues limiting desirable outcomes for stakeholders of the gold mining industry. These include difficulty to transition from theory (espoused aims) to practice, a relative focus on local optima (silo thinking), poor monitoring (lack of evaluation), and a control culture. Methodological contributions are made by demonstrating the application of a multi-framing approach in a more organic and iterative manner as opposed to its use in a designed sequence, working down through layers of various systemic levels of an industry (in this case, the gold mining industry in Ghana). By so doing, the study builds on and extends the practicality of the multi-framing approach and stimulates further research in the field.</p> <p>In terms of its contribution to practice, the study provides Government, political and mining sector policy decision makers, and other interested actors, with a platform for understanding the sector in order to support their decision making about the industry to ultimately improve outcomes for key stakeholders. In particular, the study allows mining sector policy decision makers and other stakeholders to recognise complexity, uncertainty and conflicts that are embedded in the mining system and in their everyday decision-making activities about the industry. It also allows these stakeholders to become more aware that such issues can be addressed and improved by identifying and focusing on one or few underlying causes.</p> <p>This thesis draws on systems-based frameworks drawn both from functional management, for example, the supply chain and value chain frameworks of operations management and the stakeholder framework of strategic management, and from the broad domain of systems thinking (ST) and systems-based methodologies; and then focuses on the intersection of these frameworks in relation to the gold mining sector in Ghana. Due to the wide range of techniques applied, none are over-explored, creating potential for further research. On the other hand, with regard to explanations, depending on background, practitioners, and researchers familiar with some techniques may consider those sections over-explained. The researcher has sought a balance for the purpose of this study. Whilst limiting the scope of this work has been necessary in the context of doctoral study, topics ripe for future research are set out in the conclusion.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Melanie Burford ◽  
Miriam Stackpole Dahl

&lt;p&gt;Extreme floods with severe impacts have hit municipalities in Western Norway in recent decades and they will become more intense and frequent with global warming. We present a project that focused on providing an approach for visualizing climate change information for decision-makers challenged with planning resilient infrastructure and preparedness measures for future flood impacts. We have chosen visual storytelling through a short film as the most suitable and effective tool for building a communication strategy to reach out to local and regional decision-makers on the one hand and the research community on the other.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The objective was to present and communicate results from a research project in a film by focusing on low-probability high-impact events using a storyline approach. The scope of the research project was to provide Norwegian stakeholders with a realistic representation of how an observed high-impact event of the past will look like under projected future climate conditions (Schaller et al. 2020, Hegdahl et al. 2020). Recent high-impact flood events in Norway have emphasized the need for more proactive climate change adaptation. This requires local, actionable and reliable climate information to support the decision making as well as awareness and consideration of barriers to adaptation. Thus, a seamless chain from global climate system modelling over high-resolution hydrological modelling to impact assessments is needed. We have therefore taken a novel &quot;Tales of future weather&quot; approach (Hazeleger et al. 2015), which suggests that scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder context in combination with numerical weather prediction models will offer a more realistic picture of what future weather might look like, hence facilitating adaptation planning and implementation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The film we produced particularly focuses on the extreme flood event in October 2005 that affected people (including fatalities) in Bergen municipality, how the event can be seen in context of historic floods and its atmospheric drivers. It tells the story of people having experienced this event and how Bergen municipality was responding to that event.&amp;#160; One key objective of the film is to drive interest and attention to the event-based storyline approach (Sillmann et al. 2020) to facilitate uptake of climate information and to empower decision makers with new knowledge and tools to assist them in their decision making.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hazeleger, W., B. Van den Hurk, E. Min, G-J. Van Oldenborgh, A. Petersen, D. Stainforth, D., E. Vasileiadou, and L. Smith, 2015: Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5, 107-113, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2450.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hegdahl, T.J., K. Engeland, M. M&amp;#252;ller and J. Sillmann, 2020: Atmospheric River induced floods in western Norway &amp;#8211; under present and future climate, J. Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0071.1.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Schaller, N., J. Sillmann, M. Mueller, R. Haarsma, W. Hazeleger, T. Jahr Hegdahl, T. Kelder, G. van den Oord, A. Weerts, and K. Whan, 2020: The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in Western Norway, Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100259.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Sillmann, J., T. G. Shepherd, B. van den Hurk, W. Hazeleger, O. Martius, J. Zscheischler, 2020: Event-based storylines to address climate risk, Earth&amp;#8217;s Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001783.&lt;/p&gt;


2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa L. Finucane ◽  
Rachel Miller ◽  
L. Kati Corlew ◽  
Victoria W. Keener ◽  
Maxine Burkett ◽  
...  

Abstract Understanding how climate science can be useful in decisions about the management of freshwater resources requires knowledge of decision makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. A mixed-methods study found that people managing freshwater resources in Hawaii are highly educated and experienced in diverse professions, they perceive climate change as posing a worrisome risk, and they would like to be better informed about how to adapt to climate change. Decision makers with higher climate literacy seem to be more comfortable dealing with uncertain information. Those with lower climate literacy seem to be more trusting of climate information from familiar sources. Freshwater managers in Hawaii make a wide range of climate-sensitive decisions. These decisions can be characterized on several key dimensions including purpose (optimization and evaluation), time horizon (short term and long term), level of information uncertainty (known, uncertain, deeply uncertain, and completely unknown), and information type (quantitative and qualitative). The climate information most relevant to decision makers includes vulnerability assessments incorporating long-term projections about temperature, rainfall distribution, storms, sea level rise, and streamflow changes at an island or statewide scale. The main barriers to using available climate information include insufficient staff time to locate the information and the lack of a clear legal mandate to use the information. Overall, the results suggest that an integrated and systematic approach is needed to determine where and when uncertain climate information is useful and how a larger set of organizational and individual variables affect decision making.


2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Chulwon Lee

The future direction of China's approach to energy policy making is, of course, difficult to predict. This is due not only to the opaque and fragmented nature of Chinese energy policy decision-making, but also to the fact that energy policy is a new topic for China's leaders and the individuals they rely on for advice to master that impinges on the interests of actors throughout the Chinese bureaucracy. The wide range of participants in the energy policy debate indicates that more diversified views on it probably reach the top leadership. The impact of the multiplicity of opinions is two-fold. It can result in more informed decision-making, but it can also delay the process as decision makers must assess a larger number of competing and sometimes contradictory views.


Author(s):  
Nils Brunsson

This book questions the rationality of decision-making, and argues that it is as important to understand other aspects of decision-making apart from choice — such things as mobilizing action, allocating responsibility, and legitimizing organizations. These aspects of decisions can influence decision-making, and the assumptions about feasible norms that provide their context. The norm of rationality is far from obvious: sometimes decision-makers can be recommending systematic irrationality. This book collects together a wide-range of writing on decision-making, brought together in one volume.


2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Gorman ◽  
Donald E. Wynn ◽  
William David Salisbury

Since Herbert Simon’s seminal work (Simon, 1957) on bounded rationality researchers and practitioners have sought the “holy grail” of computer-supported decision-making. A recent wave of interest in “business analytics” (BA) has elevated interest in data-driven analytical decision making to the forefront. While reporting and prediction via business intelligence (BI) systems has been an important component to business decision making for some time, BA broadens its scope and potential impact in business decision making further by moving the focus to prescription. The authors see BA as the end-to-end process integrating the production through consumption of the data, and making more extensive use of the data through heavily automated, integrated and advanced predictive and prescriptive tools in ways that better support, or replace, the human decision maker. With the advent of “big data”, BA already extends beyond internal databases to external and unstructured data that is publicly produced and consumed data with new analytical techniques to better enable business decision makers in a connected world. BI research in the future will be broader in scope, and the challenge is to make effective use of a wide range of data with varying degrees of structure, and from sources both internal and external to the organization. In this paper, we suggest ways that this broader focus of BA will also affect future BI research streams.


2003 ◽  
Vol 2003 (1) ◽  
pp. 311-318
Author(s):  
Debra Scholz ◽  
Steven R. Warren ◽  
Heidi Stout ◽  
Gregory Hogue ◽  
Ann Hayward Walker ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT During a response to spilled oil or hazardous material, the protection, retrieval, and rehabilitation of affected wildlife is the jurisdiction of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the US Department of Interior (DOI), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), and the affected state resource trustees. Only permitted and trained individuals (Qualified Wildlife Responders - QWR) are allowed to directly handle the affected wildlife. QWRs are familiar with a wide range of actions that can be taken to minimize the adverse effects of spilled oil on fish and wildlife resources and their habitats. However, decision-makers and QWRs are not always familiar with the effects that various oil spill products and technologies may have on different wildlife resources. Applied oil spill products and technologies are listed under the National Contingency Plan (NCP) Product Schedule (40 CFR § 300.317) and are the focus of the Selection Guide for Oil Spill Applied Technologies. These applied oil spill products and technologies are relatively unknown and most decision-makers have limited experience in their use. To facilitate greater understanding of these products and technologies, the Selection Guide assists the decision-maker to evaluate the various spill response products and technologies for potential or suspected impacts to the environment, workers, and natural resources. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the use of various oil spill response


2005 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-736
Author(s):  
Louis Constans

This paper attempts to clarify the basic issues underlying the discussion of citizens' participation in public decision-making on energy policy and projects. It questions the assumption that such participation is possible, and recalls that energy policy is at present, at least in the French context, an area of conflict between government and various interest groups. It warns of possible misunderstandings due to the lack of an agreed definition of participation. Three major points are made in this connection. The first is that the usual instruments of citizens' participation in decision-making (public inquiries, parliamentary debates, etc.) have, for a number of technical and institutional reasons, become largely irrelevant as regards energy matters — as indeed in several other areas of policy. The second is that decision-making on energy policy and projects really allows for very little freedom of choice on the part of decision-makers : such freedom rarely goes beyond the setting of time-frames for the achievement of goals imposed by circumstances. Finally, it is suggested that invocation of the ideals of democracy is unhelpful : what is realistically possible amounts only to a greater openness and objectivity in decision-making processes aimed at giving citizens, not an illusory power to decide themselves or to block decisions by policy-makers, but the capacity to forewarn the latter about public feelings on energy issues.


Author(s):  
Laura Pereira ◽  
Ghassem R. Asrar ◽  
Rohan Bhargava ◽  
Laur Hesse Fisher ◽  
Angel Hsu ◽  
...  

AbstractFuture scenarios and pathways of potential development trajectories are powerful tools to assist with decision-making to address many sustainability challenges. Such scenarios play a major role in global environmental assessments (GEAs). Currently, however, scenarios in GEAs are mostly developed at the global level by experts and researchers, and locally imagined, bottom-up scenarios do not play a role in such assessments. In this paper, we argue that addressing future sustainability challenges for achieving more equitable development in GEAs requires a more explicit role for bottom-up inspired futures. To this end, this paper employs an innovative global assessment framework for exploring alternative futures that are grounded in local realities and existing practical actions, and that can be appropriately scaled to the required decision-making level. This framework was applied in the context of the UN’s Global Environment Outlook 6, a major example of a GEA. We developed novel methods for synthesizing insights from a wide range of local practices and perspectives into global futures. We collected information from crowdsourcing platforms, outcomes of participatory workshops in different regions of the world, and an assessment of reported regional outlooks. We analysed these according to a framework also used by an integrated assessment model in the same GEA. We conclude that bottom-up approaches to identify and assess transformative solutions that envision future pathways towards greater sustainability significantly strengthen current GEA scenario-development approaches. They provide decision makers with required actionable information based on tangible synergistic solutions that have been tested on the ground. This work has revealed that there are significant opportunities for the integration of bottom-up knowledge and insights into GEAs, to make such assessments more salient and valuable to decision makers.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey J. Rachlinski ◽  
Andrew J. Wistrich

13 Annual Review of Law and Social Science (2017)Do judges make decisions that are truly impartial? A wide range of experimental and field studies reveal that several extra-legal factors influence judicial decision making. Demographic characteristics of judges and litigants affect judges’ decisions. Judges also rely heavily on intuitive reasoning in deciding cases, making them vulnerable to the use of mental shortcuts that can lead to mistakes. Furthermore, judges sometimes rely on facts outside the record and rule more favorably towards litigants who are more sympathetic or with whom they share demographic characteristics. On the whole, judges are excellent decision makers, and sometimes resist common errors of judgment that influence ordinary adults. The weight of the evidence, however, suggests that judges are vulnerable to systematic deviations from the ideal of judicial impartiality.


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