When Does Information Influence Voters? The Joint Importance of Salience and Coordination

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 851-891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Adida ◽  
Jessica Gottlieb ◽  
Eric Kramon ◽  
Gwyneth McClendon

Scholars argue that access to information about a politician’s programmatic performance helps voters reward good performers and punish poor ones. But in places where resources are made conditional on collective electoral behavior, voters may not want to defect to vote for a strong legislative performer if they do not believe that others will. We argue that two conditions must hold for information about politician performance to affect voter behavior: Voters must care about the information and believe that others in their constituency care as well. In a field experiment around legislative elections in Benin, voters rewarded good programmatic performance only when information was both made relevant to voters and widely disseminated within the electoral district. Otherwise, access to positive legislative performance information actually lowered vote share for the incumbent’s party. These results demonstrate the joint importance of Salience and voter coordination in shaping information’s impact in clientelistic democracies.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J M Costa ◽  
Angelo Marcantonio Junior ◽  
Rudi Rocha

This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. We find that regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal affiliation and in the vote share of candidates connected to Pentecostal churches in national legislative elections. Once elected, these politicians carried out an agenda with greater emphasis on issues that are sensitive to fundamental religious principles. These results uncover a direct link between economic distress and a sustained entrenchment of more fundamentalist religious groups in a contemporary democracy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abel François ◽  
Julien Navarro

AbstractThis paper studies the relationship between incumbent MPs’ activities and their electoral fortune. We address this question in the context of the French political system characterized by an executive domination, a candidate-centered electoral system, and an electoral schedule maximizing the impact of the presidential elections. Given the contradictory influence of these three institutional features on the relationship between MPs’ activities and electoral results, the overall link can only be assessed empirically. We test the effects of several measurements of MPs’ activities on both their vote share and reelection probability in the 2007 legislative election. We show that MPs’ activities are differently correlated to both the incumbents’ vote shares in the first round and their reelection. Despite the weakness of the French National Assembly, several parliamentary activities, especially bill initiation, have a significant effect on MPs’ electoral prospects.


2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 262-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Ziegfeld ◽  
Maya Tudor

When elections are free and fair, why do some political parties rule for prolonged periods of time? Most explanations for single-party dominance focus on the dominant party’s origins, resources, or strategies. In this article, we show how opposition parties can undermine or sustain single-party dominance. Specifically, opposition parties should be central in explaining single-party dominance in countries with highly disproportional electoral systems and a dominant party whose vote share falls short of a popular majority. Employing a quantitative analysis of Indian legislative elections as well as a paired case study, we show that opposition coordination plays a crucial part in undermining single-party dominance.


Author(s):  
Muhamad Sepriansyah ◽  
Yazwardi Yazwardi ◽  
Yulion Zalpa

The election of legislative candidates is a legitimate link between the people and the government in a democratic society. Political strategy is a political force that will occupy a power in the future, the strategy used is to use battle to win wars and aims to achieve peace. The purpose of this study was to determine the strategy carried out by M. Anwar Al Syadat in the 2019 legislative elections in the Palembang II electoral district. This research is field research or "field research" which is carried out in the real world. The results of field research show that the strategy carried out by M. Anwar Al Syadat in the 2019 legislative election uses a political marketing strategy, namely first, showing a political product which contains the vision and mission and excellent work programs of M. Anwar Al Syadat and the winning team. to be shown to the community in the 9 Districts where the campaign is. Second, this promotion is carried out by means of direct dialogue with the community and through social media such as Facebook and Instagram. Third, determine the price during the campaign, both in the campaign funding process and in building the image price of the legislative candidates. Fourth, the place for the campaign, which at that time was not only focused on 1 sub-district, but all sub-districts in the electoral district of Palembang II.


2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (2) ◽  
pp. 280-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
GUY GROSSMAN ◽  
KRISTIN MICHELITCH

Politicians shirk when their performance is obscure to constituents. We theorize that when politician performance information is disseminated early in the electoral term, politicians will subsequently improve their performance in anticipation of changes in citizens’ evaluative criteria and possible challenger entry in the next election. However, politicians may only respond in constituencies where opposition has previously mounted. We test these predictions in partnership with a Ugandan civil society organization in a multiyear field experiment conducted in 20 district governments between the 2011 and 2016 elections. While the organization published yearly job duty performance scorecards for all incumbents, it disseminated the scorecards to constituents for randomly selected politicians. These dissemination efforts induced politicians to improve performance across a range of measures, butonly in competitive constituencies. Service delivery was unaffected. We conclude that, conditional on electoral pressure, transparency can improve politicians’ performance between elections but not outcomes outside of their control.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Danis Tri Saputra Wahidin ◽  
Ali Muhyidin ◽  
Iswahyuni Iswahyuni ◽  
Anwar Ilmar

This study discusses the voter behavior that influence the fluctuation of  political party voters changing in the 2009, 2014 and 2019 legislative elections. The undestanding of political parties with a rational voter behavior approach is carried out to detect the relationship of political parties performance to the people's choices in the Indonesia Legislative elections. However, the Indonesian voters behavior  cannot be caracterized absolutely rational, because the sociological and the psychological voter behavior also strongly influences Indonesian voters, and even influences one another. This case study found that the behavior of Indonesian voters is volatile. loyal voters in the 2014 general election are predicted to only amount 20%. In the 2019 elections, loyal party voters tended to be stable due to several factors, 1) The political bipolarization between supporters of the Jokowi-Maruf and Probowo-Sandi pair, 2) high public satisfaction with the performance of the Jokowi-JK government, 3) stable public trust in government and opposition parties and 4) holding legislative elections in conjunction with the presidential election. This condition can be seen from the motives of political party voters who choose because of several main factors, namely figures, ideology and political work programs.Penelitian ini mendiskusikan tentang perilaku pemilih yang mempengaruhi perubahan suara partai politik pada pemilu legislatif 2009, 2014, dan 2019. Pendalaman partai politik dengan pendekatan perilaku pemilih rasional dilakukan untuk mendeteksi hubungan kinerja partai politik terhadap perilaku pemilih pada pemilu Legislatif di Indonesia. Meski demikian, perilaku pemilih Indonesia tidak dapat dikatakan rasional secara mutlak, karena perilaku pemilih sosiologis dan psikologis juga masih kuat mempengaruhi pemilih Indonesia, bahkan saling mempengaruhi antara satu dengan yang lainnya . Studi kasus ini menemukan bahwa perilaku pemilih Indonesia bersifat fluktuatif. pemilih loyal di Indonesia pada pemilu 2014 diprediksi hanya berjumlah 20%. Pada pemilu 2019 pemilih loyal partai cenderung stabil karena didorong oleh beberapa faktor, yaitu 1) bipolarisasi politik antara pendukung pasangan Jokowi-Maruf dan Probowo-Sandi, 2) tingginya kepuasan masyarakat pada kinerja pemerintahan Jokowi-JK,  3) stabilnya kepercayaan publik pada partai pemerintah maupun partai oposisi dan 4) pelaksanaan pemilu legislatif  yang bersamaan dengan  pemilu presiden. Kondisi ini terlihat dari motif pemilih partai politik yang memilih karena beberapa faktor utama yaitu faktor figur, Ideologi dan program kerja.


Author(s):  
Marc Hooghe

Political trust is closely related to various forms of electoral behavior. First, political trust tends to stimulate voter turnout, as distrusting citizens are less motivated to cast a vote. Second, low levels of political trust have been associated with an anti-incumbent vote and with populist voting. Third, taking part in elections can actually boost levels of political trust, although it is debatable whether this effect is limited to supporters of the winning party in elections. The occurrence of this winner-loser gap, however, seems to depend strongly on specific characteristics of electoral and party systems. Across liberal democracies, processes of electoral dealignment have led to lower levels of voter turnout and a higher vote share for populist parties. To a large extent, it remains to be investigated what causal role political trust plays in these processes.


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