Sequencing the Peace

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhav Joshi ◽  
Erik Melander ◽  
Jason Michael Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Survival Models ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Promoting Effect ◽  
Stepping Stone ◽  
Peace Agreements

Once a set of civil war actors reach a final peace agreement, a number of different implementation sequences are possible as the negotiated provisions are put into practice. We focus on a key but threatening stepping stone in the post-accord period—the holding of the first post-accord election—which has the capacity to be a stabilizing or destabilizing force. We identify effective accommodation provisions that civil war actors can negotiate and implement before the first post-accord election to reduce the chances of renewed violence. Utilizing new longitudinal data on the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements between 1989 and 2012 and a series of survival models, we find that if the first post-accord election is preceded by the implementation of accommodation measures, elections can have a peace-promoting effect. However, in the absence of preelection accommodation measures, elections are much more likely to be followed by peace failure.

The Israeli-Syrian Conflict, 1973–2019

2020 ◽  
pp. 192-208
Author(s):  
Jerome Slater
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Israel is largely responsible for the Israeli-Syrian conflict. Before the 1948 war, Israel rejected opportunities to reach peace agreements with moderate Syrian monarchs or military governments, because they would have required the end of Israeli expansionist goals focusing on the Golan Heights. Syria’s participation in the 1967 and 1973 wars was partly the intended result of Israeli military provocations designed to give Israel the pretext to seize the area. Since then. the Hafez and Bassar Assad monarchies have repeatedly offered to end the conflict, provided Israel returned the Golan. While several Israeli prime ministers and top military leaders believed Israel’security would be enhanced by such a deal, the negotiations collapsed when the Israeli prime ministers, fearing a rightwing domestic backlash, on the verge of an agreement backed away. For the foreseeable future, the Syrian civil war, together with Israel’s annexation of the Golan, has ended the prospect for a peace agreement.

scholarly journals Fragmented Ethnopolitical Social Representations of a Territorial Peace Agreement: The Mindanao Peace Talks

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Jayme Montiel ◽  
Judith M. de Guzman ◽  
Ma. Elizabeth J. Macapagal
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Social Representations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Territorial Conflict ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
The Social ◽  
Agreement Study ◽  
Social Landscapes

This article examines fractures in the social representations of a contested peace agreement in the longstanding territorial conflict of Mindanao. We compared representational structures and discourses about the peace talks among Muslims and Christians. Study One used an open-ended survey of 420 Christians and Muslims from two Mindanao cities identified with different Islamised tribes, and employed the hierarchical evocation method to provide representational structures of the peace agreement. Study Two contrasted discourses about the Memorandum of Agreement between two Muslim liberation fronts identified with separate Islamised tribes in Mindanao. Findings show unified Christians’ social representations about the peace agreement. However, Muslims’ social representations diverge along the faultlines of the Islamised ethnic groups. Findings are examined in the light of ethnopolitical divides that emerge among apparently united nonmigrant groups, as peace agreements address territorial solutions. Research results are likewise discussed in relation to other tribally contoured social landscapes that carry hidden, yet fractured ethnic narratives embedded in a larger war storyline.

The Kurdish Civil War and Peace Negotiations, 1994–1998

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962110624
Author(s):  
Dana Ali Salih ◽  
Hawre Hasan Hama
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
War And Peace ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Contingency Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Military

The Kurdish Civil War between the military forces of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) began in 1994. Despite frequently occurring peace talks throughout the conflict, negotiations failed to bring about a durable settlement until the United States brokered the Washington Peace Agreement in 1998. This research explores why the earlier negotiations were unsuccessful, and whether it was only the US mediation in 1998 which made the difference. Although the US mediation was clearly an important factor, by employing the contingency model this research argues that both contextual variables and process variables determined the success of negotiations in 1998. Furthermore, they can explain the failure of the previous 4 years of negotiations.

scholarly journals DISPUTES SETTLEMENT OF BALI TRADITIONAL INHERITANCE THROUGH PEACE AGREEMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-26
Author(s):  
Anak Agung Istri Agung ◽  
I Nyoman Sukandia
Keyword(s):  
Civil Code ◽  
Good Faith ◽  
Legal Certainty ◽  
Legal Research ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
The Law ◽  
Made In

The inheritance and the division of inheritance that is felt to be unfair is often a source of dispute. The disputes that occur can sometimes be resolved by making a peace agreement between the disputing parties. The peace desired by the parties is, of course, expected to end disputes/conflict and to provide legal certainty among those in dispute. However, sometimes peace agreements that have been made between those in dispute are disputed again in court. This study aims to examine the settlement of Balinese traditional inheritance disputes through a binding peace agreement between the parties make it. The method used in this study is a normative legal research, using a statute approach and a case approach. The result of this study showed that the settlement of Balinese indigenous inheritance disputes through a binding peace agreement of the parties that make it if the peace agreement is made based on the validity of the agreement as stipulated in article 1320 of the Civil Code, based on good faith as the principles in the law of the agreement, and must be made in the form of a notary deed is in accordance with the provisions for conciliation in book III of the Civil Code.  

scholarly journals Peace Governance and Multiculturalism: What role for Peace Education in the Balkans

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidija Georgieva
Keyword(s):  
Peace Education ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Violent Conflicts

This article will focus on theoretical and practical dilemmas related to the concept of peace governance, and within this context on the possible transformative role of peace education trough facilitation of contact between communities in conflict. The basic assumption is that violent conflicts in the Balkans have been resolved trough negotiated settlements and peace agreements. Yet, education strategy including peace education and its impact on post-conflict peacebuilding and reconciliation are underestimated. Peace governance is recognized as a dynamic but challenging process often based on institutional and policy arrangements aimed to at least settle conflict dynamics or in some cases even to provide more sustainable peace after signing of negotiated settlement in multicultural societies. We will argue that education in general is one of the critical issues of peace governance arrangements that could facilitate peacebuilding and create a contact platform between communities. The first question addressed in this article is to what extend peace agreements refer to education as an issue and the second one relate to the question if education is included in peace agreement to what extent it contributes for contact between different conflicting communities. Although it is widely accepted that contacts between former adversaries contributes for multicultural dialogue it is less known or explained if and in what way peace agreements provisions on education facilitate contact and transformation of conflicting relations.

scholarly journals The Prevalence of Power-Sharing: Exploring the Patterns of Post-Election Peace

2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna K. Jarstad
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Good News ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Negative Effect

Why are some elections followed by armed conflict, while others are not? This article begins to explore this question by mapping the prevalence of power-sharing agreements and patterns of post-election peace in states shattered by civil war. While democracy builds on the notion of free political competition and uncertain electoral outcomes, power-sharing reduces the uncertainty by ensuring political power for certain groups. Nevertheless, new data presented in this article – the Post-Accord Elections (PAE) data collection – shows that the issues of peace, power-sharing and democracy have become intertwined as the vast majority of contemporary peace agreements provide for both power-sharing and elections. First, in contrast to previous research which has suggested that power-sharing is a tool for ending violence, this study shows that conflict often continues after an agreement has been signed, even if it includes provisions for power-sharing. Second, this investigation shows no evidence of power-sharing facilitating the holding of elections. On the contrary, it is more common that elections are held following a peace process without power-sharing. Third, a period of power-sharing ahead of the elections does not seem to provide for postelection peace. Rather, such elections are similarly dangerous as post-accord elections held without a period of power-sharing. The good news is that power-sharing does not seem to have a negative effect on post-election peace.

scholarly journals Women, peace and international security: the Havana Agreement for peace in Colombia

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-90
Author(s):  
Elena DE OLIVEIRA SCHUCK ◽  
Lívia BRITO
Keyword(s):  
International Security ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Specific Analysis ◽  
The Government

Armed conflicts have different impacts on women. In this regard, women’s civil society organizations are inserted in the international political arenas in order to guarantee their rights in warfare contexts. In the case of conflicts in Colombia, women are identified not only as combatants and victims, but also as members of women civil organizations for peacebuilding. These organizations played a prominent role in the elaboration of the peace agreement between the Government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Havana, Cuba, between 2012 and 2016. This article proposes an analysis of the theoretical production on peace, international security, feminism and subalternity, to present the specific case of the conflict in Colombia and its gender perspectives. The results indicate that peace agreements can be instruments of political inclusion and reparation for women affected by armed conflicts. In highlighting the role of political minorities in the international peace negotiations in Colombia, this research contributes to the development and expansion of critical perspectives —feminist and subaltern— on international security and studies for peace. Moreover, building upon the specific analysis of the Havana Agreement, this paper aims to contribute to the inclusion of a gender perspective in future peace agreements.

Making

2021 ◽  
pp. 55-84
Author(s):  
Sharath Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Actual Practice ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
Civil Politics ◽  
The Many

This chapter, ‘Making’, analyses the genesis of Sudan’s 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement in order to answer the question, what does it mean to ‘make’ peace? Making necessitates having ends in mind, but not only ones that textbook theories propose. The chapter examines how in Sudan a messy and contingent multiplicity of divergent and conflicting foreign states and organizations jockeyed to shape the end of ‘peace’. The many ends of ‘peace’ pursued in actual practice have limited concern for non-violent civil politics. The chapter explains how the prevailing logic for making peace in Sudan was pragmatism and feasibility for achieving a ‘make-do’ outcome, for which the Western-backed regional IGAD peace initiative emerged as the most efficacious. The chapter then explores the means used to achieve make-do peacemaking ends: tools of design and compulsion. With these means, peacemakers productively work on structuring, compelling and coercing the civil war towards an end. Yet this making mindset tends to deny or debilitate war’s unruly political dimensions in ways that risk backfiring violently.

scholarly journals Selling Out or Standing Firm? Explaining the Design of Civil War Peace Agreements

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-342
Author(s):  
Deniz Cil ◽  
Alyssa K Prorok
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Military Power ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Settlement Agreements

Abstract When do rebel leaders “sell out” their constituents in the terms of peace by signing agreements that benefit group elites over the rebel constituency, and when do they instead “stand firm,” pushing for settlement terms that benefit the public they claim to represent? This article examines variation in the design of civil war settlement agreements. It argues that constituents, fighters, and rebel elites have different preferences over the terms of peace, and that rebel leaders will push for settlements that reflect the preferences of whichever audience they are most reliant on and accountable to. In particular, leaders of groups that are more civilian-reliant for their military and political power are more likely to sign agreements that favor broad benefits for civilian constituents, while leaders who do not depend on civilian support for their political and military power will sign agreements with fewer public benefits. We test this argument using original data on the design of all final peace agreements reached between 1989 and 2009, and several proxies for the group's level of reliance on civilian supporters. Using a variety of statistical tests and accounting for nonrandom selection into peace agreements, we find strong support for our hypothesis.

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