Please Help Us (or Don’t): External Interventions and Negotiated Settlements in Civil Conflicts

2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272095041
Author(s):  
Heather Elko McKibben ◽  
Amy Skoll
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Bargaining Process ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Conflict Outcomes ◽  
External Interventions ◽  
External Intervention

How do different types of external intervention affect the likelihood of a negotiated settlement in civil conflicts? Drawing on the negotiation literature, which shows that the nature of the parties’ “best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA)” influences the bargaining process between them, we argue different types of intervention affect governments’ and rebel groups’ BATNAs in different ways. This, in turn, affects the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. To test this argument, we address the fact that interventions are nonrandom, and that characteristics of civil conflicts that lead to different types of intervention also influence the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. We therefore use a two-stage statistical model. The first stage predicts the likelihood of different types of intervention, and drawing on those results, the second stage analyzes the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. The results provide insights into how different types of intervention affect civil conflict outcomes.

scholarly journals The impact of foreign fighters on civil conflict outcomes

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 205316801772205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiffany S. Chu ◽  
Alex Braithwaite
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
Conflict Outcomes ◽  
The Impact

There has been a great deal of discussion about the large volumes of foreign fighters involved in civil conflicts in Syria and Iraq over recent years. Yet, there remains little systematic evidence about the effect, if any, that foreign fighters have upon the conflicts they join. Existing literature distinguishes between the resources fighters bring to rebel groups and the liability they represent in regards to campaign cohesion. We seek to establish preliminary evidence as to whether or not foreign fighters contribute to the success of the campaigns they join. Our multinomial logistic and competing risks regression analyses of civil conflicts between 1946 and 2013 suggest that foreign fighters are associated with a decreased likelihood of government victory. Furthermore, we offer partial evidence to suggest that foreign fighters from non-contiguous countries are more likely to help rebels achieve a negotiated settlement or to continue their struggle against the government, but not to directly help them achieve victory.

Politics of Pursuing Justice in the Aftermath of Civil Conflict

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 1165-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam Kyu Kim ◽  
Mi Hwa Hong
Keyword(s):  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Truth Commissions ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conflict Outcomes

Why do some states pursue transitional justice (TJ) in the immediate aftermath of armed conflict while others do not? What drives a state to select a particular type of justice mechanism over another? Building on the political explanations of TJ, we argue that postconflict justice (PCJ) decisions are driven by the interests and power of political elites shaped by recently ended conflicts. Our empirical analysis shows that conflict outcomes and their subsequent impact on the balance of power between the government and rebel groups are the most important determinants of PCJ decisions. Domestic trials are most likely to emerge out of a decisive, one-sided victory while truth commissions and reparations are most likely to occur after a negotiated settlement. We also find that conflict severity interacts with conflict outcomes to affect PCJ decisions.

Do International Interventions Prolong Civil Conflicts? The Effect of Ex Ante Expectations

2020 ◽  
pp. 0095327X2096765
Author(s):  
Tsukasa Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Direct Effect ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Third Party Intervention ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Conflict Duration ◽  
External Interventions ◽  
External Intervention

Many studies have found that third-party intervention tends to prolong the duration of civil conflict. However, some studies have suggested that mere expectations of external intervention can prolong conflict duration even in the absence of actual intervention. Therefore, the effects of external interventions in prolonging the duration of civil conflicts remain unclear. This study examines the direct effect of third-party intervention on the duration of civil conflict by controlling for the indirect effect of expectations of external intervention. The probabilities of intervention were estimated, and the direct effect of interventions was tested by controlling for the effect of ex ante expectations. The empirical findings were as follows: (1) Third-party intervention has no direct effect of prolonging the duration of a conflict when expectations are controlled for, and (2) Third-party intervention may have an indirect effect of shortening conflict duration, which contradicts the findings of previous studies.

scholarly journals Female combatants, forced recruitment, and civil conflict outcomes

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 205316801877055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Braithwaite ◽  
Luna B. Ruiz
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Female Participation ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conflict Outcomes

Women participated as combatants in almost 40% of civil conflicts that occurred between 1979 and 2009. We offer a novel argument about the effect of female combatants upon the outcomes of the civil conflicts that they join. Groups that recruit female combatants are more likely to achieve victory in their conflicts than are groups that do not recruit female combatants. However, when rebel groups rely upon forced recruitment, they risk undermining the benefits associated with female combatants, lowering their likelihood of victory relative to that of the government. We test this conditional argument using multinomial logistic regression models on a sample of 194 rebel groups globally from 1979 to 2009. We find that female participation appears to decrease the likelihood of government victory in civil wars; this effect holds primarily in instances in which female participation could plausibly be thought of as voluntary. Forced female participation, by contrast, appears to increase the likelihood of a government victory.

Shaking Hands with the Internal Enemy: Democracy and Civil Conflict Settlement

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 845-856
Author(s):  
Omer Zarpli
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Internal Conflicts ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Difficult Time ◽  
Novel Theory ◽  
Using Data

Abstract How does regime type affect the likelihood of negotiated settlements that end civil conflicts? A limited number of previous studies have offered divergent theories and mixed findings about whether democracy is an asset or a liability. I draw these disparate findings together and present a novel theory on why leaders under fully democratic and autocratic regimes may have a particularly difficult time in peacemaking, and how leaders in anocratic (hybrid) regimes are more likely to be successful in reaching negotiated settlements. Thus, I hypothesize that the relationship between regime type and the likelihood of conflict-resolution is inverted U-shaped. I test this hypothesis using data on all internal conflicts between 1946 and 2014, and find empirical support. The findings suggest that even if anocracies are more prone to the outbreak of civil wars as has been proposed by previous studies, they are also better at settling these conflicts.

scholarly journals Civil War and Female Empowerment

2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272098340
Author(s):  
Ingrid Vik Bakken ◽  
Halvard Buhaug
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Female Empowerment ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Transformative Potential ◽  
Sustained Effort ◽  
Gender Specific

Recent research has directed attention to the transformative potential of war for female empowerment. As a disruptive shock, armed conflict can create a window of opportunity for advancing the societal role of women. We complement this research agenda by looking at how conflict severity and termination condition the outcomes for women in the aftermath of civil conflict. We expect that both level of violence and mode of resolution affect subsequent female empowerment, where severe conflicts ending by a negotiated settlement have the greatest transformative potential. Consistent with expectations, we find that post-conflict improvements in female empowerment occur primarily after high-intensity civil conflicts. However, subsequent tests reveal that this effect is driven largely by conflicts terminated by peace agreements. The greatest improvement in female empowerment is seen when peace agreements have gender-specific provisions. These results support calls for a sustained effort toward mainstreaming gender issues in conflict resolution and peacebuilding processes.

scholarly journals Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332198978
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Turkoglu
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Armed Struggle ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Different Sources

Why do some countries host more refugees than others? Previous research has focused on the role of geographical, political, and economic determinants, and little attention has been paid to civil conflict dynamics. In this article, I examine how a host country’s support for rebel groups may affect the number of refugees that it accommodates. Countries that support rebels host a higher number of refugees than others, as accommodating refugees can be the continuation of that support and help rebel groups in their armed struggle. By hosting people, countries may offer a sanctuary from which rebels can operate some of their insurgent activities. Rebel groups can exploit these camps for recruitment, training, and benefiting from the main services such as health care. In addition, when rebels operate in host countries, these countries may monitor, impact, or even direct the strategies of insurgent groups. Analysis of refugee flows between 1968 and 2011 suggests that countries which support rebel groups host twice as many refugees as others. Results are robust to various model specifications, two different sources for the main explanatory variable, matching analysis, and additional checks. Findings of this article highlight the importance of conflict dynamics in explaining the variation in refugee flows.

The Short-Term Effects of Military Interventions in Civil Conflict

2002 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-377
Author(s):  
Patrick M. Regan
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Management ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Military Interventions ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Negotiated Settlements

In this article, I discuss the implications of thinking about conflict management in terms of long and short-term outcomes. In particular, I focus on the role of third-party interventions in civil conflicts and how military interventions can affect the terms of negotiated settlements. I argue that military interventions can be effective if you judge success in terms of short-term outcomes, but even then, there are more or less-effective strategies. After articulating different metrics for considering short-term success, I outline a framework for thinking about how the intervention strategy will influence the duration of a civil conflict, in part by linking battlefield conditions to negotiated outcomes. I conclude by discussing some of the implications of linking military interventions to diplomatic efforts when negotiating a settlement.

Toward a holistic networks approach to strategic third-party intervention: A literature review

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Hannigan
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Third Party Intervention ◽  
External Actors ◽  
Conflict Outcomes

How do third parties decide to intervene in civil conflicts? The study of intervention has focused primarily on the conflict characteristics and dyadic linkages that make intervention more likely, or the conflict outcomes that interventions generate, while holding all else equal. To paint a more complete picture of what goes into the intervention decision, I advocate a shift in the way we conceive of interventions toward network analysis, which grants due agency to the multiple external actors and internal combatants that influence the decision to intervene. This review critically examines and synthesizes the recent literature on third-party interventions in civil conflict and, in so doing, identifies some areas for future research.

scholarly journals Legislative Gender Diversity and the Resolution of Civil Conflict

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 215-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca H. Best ◽  
Sarah Shair-Rosenfield ◽  
Reed M. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Female Representation ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Conflict Termination ◽  
The Impact

Policy makers and scholars have shown increased interest in gendered approaches to peacemaking, even as evidence of women’s impact on peace processes has remained unclear. In this paper, we explore the influence of gender diversity among decision-making elites on the outcome of ongoing civil conflicts. Specifically, we argue that increased female representation within the national legislature increases the likelihood that a conflict terminates in a negotiated settlement. However, the impact of legislative female representation on conflict termination is conditioned by the power of the legislature vis-à-vis the executive, suggesting that gender diversity exerts a greater impact in states with more authoritative legislatures. We evaluate our hypotheses using data on the manner of conflict termination and the proportion of women in national legislatures between 1945 and 2009. Our results show support for the central argument, suggesting that increasing female representation within legislative bodies increases the likelihood of war termination via negotiated settlement.

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