The Impact of Ambiguity-induced Error in Offender Decision-making: Evidence from the Field

2021 ◽  
pp. 002242782110000
Author(s):  
Greg Midgette ◽  
Thomas A. Loughran ◽  
Sarah Tahamont
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Drunk Driving ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Criminal Justice Program ◽  
Program Compliance ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Justice Program ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weighting Methods

Objectives: To invoke behavioral economics theories of ambiguity in the context of offender decision-making, and to test the impact of ambiguity in punishment certainty on offender decisions. Methods: We leverage a quasi-experimental condition among a sample of drunk driving arrestees that are tested for alcohol use and subject to mandatory brief incarceration for a violation. The treatment condition relaxes a zero-tolerance alcohol rule, thereby introducing design-based ambiguity surrounding the certainty of punishment. We use Mahalanobis matching and propensity score weighting methods to estimate the impact of ambiguity on violations. We then interrogate this finding with complementary sensitivity analyses. Results: When facing the ambiguity condition participants are 27–28 percentage points (84–93 percent) more likely to violate program conditions after 30 days of supervision. We demonstrate that a statistical difference in violations due to ambiguity is still detectible at 90 and 180 days of supervision. These results are robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests. Conclusions: This study is the first to examine the impact of ambiguity on criminal justice program compliance using a quasi-experiment from the field. We further demonstrate the unintended costs to persons under supervision and jurisdictions of laxity in program design, which are applicable across criminal justice domains.

scholarly journals The impact of a cash transfer programme on tuberculosis treatment success rate: a quasi-experimental study in Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. e001029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J Carter ◽  
Rhian Daniel ◽  
Ana W Torrens ◽  
Mauro N Sanchez ◽  
Ethel Leonor N Maciel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Success Rate ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Treatment Success ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Treatment Success Rate ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Tb Treatment ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundEvidence suggests that social protection policies such as Brazil’s Bolsa Família Programme (BFP), a governmental conditional cash transfer, may play a role in tuberculosis (TB) elimination. However, study limitations hamper conclusions. This paper uses a quasi-experimental approach to more rigorously evaluate the effect of BFP on TB treatment success rate.MethodsPropensity scores were estimated from a complete-case logistic regression using covariates from a linked data set, including the Brazil’s TB notification system (SINAN), linked to the national registry of those in poverty (CadUnico) and the BFP payroll.ResultsThe average effect of treatment on the treated was estimated as the difference in TB treatment success rate between matched groups (ie, the control and exposed patients, n=2167). Patients with TB receiving BFP showed a treatment success rate of 10.58 percentage points higher (95% CI 4.39 to 16.77) than patients with TB not receiving BFP. This association was robust to sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsThis study further confirms a positive relationship between the provision of conditional cash transfers and TB treatment success rate. Further research is needed to understand how to enhance access to social protection so to optimise public health impact.

scholarly journals Attitudes, Rape and Law Reform in South Africa

2009 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 414-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charnelle van der Bijl ◽  
Philip N. S. Rumney
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Social Attitudes ◽  
Law Reform ◽  
Judicial Decision Making ◽  
Rape Law ◽  
Justice Process ◽  
Criminal Justice Process ◽  
The Impact

In the last decade South Africa has undergone an extensive process of sexual offence law reform. This process has attempted, amongst other things, to address deficiencies in the criminal justice response to rape and has also recognised some of the limits to the impact of legal reform. These limits are partly defined by rape supportive attitudes and myths that appear to influence decision-making at all points in the criminal justice process. In South Africa, and many other jurisdictions, evidence suggests that police, prosecutorial and judicial decision-making is influenced, in part, by a range of social attitudes that misconstrue sexual violence, as well as serve to undermine the credibility of complainants. This article examines the impact of myths, social definitions of rape on rape law reform in South Africa and the points at which these reforms are likely to be undermined by social attitudes and what potentially might be done to address this problem.

The Impact of Weighting Methods and Behavioral Attitudes on the Weighting Process in Decision-Making

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasia Tzioutziou ◽  
Yiannis Xenidis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Behavioral Traits ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Behavioral Attitudes ◽  
Weighting Methods

Abstract The determination of weights in decision-making problems can be deduced as a complex process of preference formation. Preferences are expressions of behavioral attitudes and are affected by external circumstances, such as risk and ambiguity. The objective of this research is to examine the impact of both the human factor and the weighting methods on the weighting process in decision-making problems. Based on relevant literature a new methodology is proposed and applied to identify with the use of a psychometric function the behavioral attitudes of decision-making analysts against risk and ambiguity. Furthermore, the examination of process-related features such as the weighting method, the weighting scale and the weighting problem's presentation provides additional knowledge on the understanding of the weighting process in decision-making problems. Thus, an original survey is designed, aiming at: (a) the identification of the respondents' attitudinal preferences based on multiple personality tests and (b) the elicitation of weight assignments through the use of different weighting tasks and subtasks. The findings reveal that the weightings and their consistency are significantly affected by the elicitation method, the nature of the weighting scale and the problem's framing. It is also interesting that the decision analysts' behavioral traits, in association with the problem's methodological aspects, affect the weight assignments, thus providing evidence for the potential to predict weightings in the decision-making process.

A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Professional Development on Teachers’ Knowledge, Skill, and Self-Efficacy in Data-Based Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
pp. 002221942097019
Author(s):  
Samantha A. Gesel ◽  
Lauren M. LeJeune ◽  
Jason C. Chow ◽  
Anne C. Sinclair ◽  
Christopher J. Lemons
Keyword(s):  
Professional Development ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
K 12 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Data Based Decision Making

The purpose of this review was to synthesize research on the effect of professional development (PD) targeting data-based decision-making processes on teachers’ knowledge, skills, and self-efficacy related to curriculum-based measurement (CBM) and data-based decision-making (DBDM). To be eligible for this review, studies had to (a) be published in English, (b) include in-service or pre-service K–12 teachers as participants, (c) use an empirical group design, and (d) include sufficient data to calculate an effect size for teacher outcome variables. The mean effect of DBDM PD on teacher outcomes was g = 0.57 ( p < .001). This effect was not moderated by study quality. These results must be viewed through the lens of significant heterogeneity in effects across included studies, which could not be explained by follow-up sensitivity analyses. In addition, the experimental studies included in this review occurred under ideal, researcher-supported conditions, which impacts the generalizability of the effects of DBDM PD in practice. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

Criminal Justice Education, Employment Destinations, and Graduate Satisfaction

2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Wimshurst ◽  
Troy Allard
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Educational Outcomes ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Criminal Justice Education ◽  
Occupational Groups ◽  
Criminal Justice Program ◽  
Perceived Success ◽  
Justice Program ◽  
Components Analysis ◽  
Program Accountability

The article addresses the lack of sound empirical research both overseas and especially in Australia on the outcomes of criminal justice education. The very limited research on graduate outcomes is potentially problematic at a time when governments are increasingly calling for program accountability and evaluation in higher education. The article reports on an empirical study of one criminology/criminal justice program that investigated the employment destinations of graduates. Principal components analysis and regression analyses were used to explore graduate satisfaction with their degree. There was evidence that educational outcomes were important considerations when alumni evaluated their degree. However, findings indicated that satisfaction varied considerably between occupational groups and was influenced by employment experiences and perceived ‘success’ in the workforce. The article addresses various themes emerging from the findings and identifies the need for further research across other programs on the outcomes of criminal justice education and graduate destinations.

Parole Guidelines: Suggested Research Questions

1981 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
James L. Galvin ◽  
Kenneth Polk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Research Community ◽  
Statistical Procedures ◽  
Offense Severity ◽  
Rehabilitation Model ◽  
Time Served ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Impact

Three factors have supported the development of parole guidelines: criticism of the rehabilitation model as a basis for parole decision making and the accompanying movement toward a just deserts model of punishment, the development of sophisticated statistical procedures for risk assessment, and increasing questions about disparity in criminal justice decision making. This paper raises questions related to each of these three factors that should be addressed by the research community as guidelines are implemented. With respect to offense severity and sentence served, key considerations are the rationale for sentence lengths, the degree to which discretion is being structured, inmates' perceptions of the guidelines, and the effect of guidelines on time served. Under risk assessment and parole prediction, the accuracy of the salient factors as predictors, the problem of false positives, and the possibility of unan ticipated bias must be addressed. In terms of effects on the overall system, questions are raised about the extent to which discretion can be structured, the effect on correctional staffs of changing the purpose of correction, and the impact of such a shift on the already dwindling resources for the parolee. The paper closes with a call for a coherent program of research to accompany the implementation of guidelines.

Does a Coordinated Program Between the Police and Prosecution Services Matter? The Impacts on Satisfaction and Safety of Domestic Violence Victims

2020 ◽  
pp. 088740342092033
Author(s):  
Jorge Quintas ◽  
Pedro Sousa
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Violence ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Telephone Survey ◽  
Safety Data ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Experimental Group

Domestic violence–specialized programs have been created by the police or the criminal justice system with the intention of improving victims’ protection. This article examines the impact of the first Portuguese coordinated program, involving a specialized prosecution team and a special police unit, the experience of victims in encountering with authorities, and the fulfillment of their expectations on victims’ satisfaction and safety. Data were collected through a telephone survey, using a two-group quasi-experimental design, at two waves (3 and 12 months after the crime report). Victims from the experimental group are more satisfied and reveal a better sense of safety. However, it is only in the second variable that the program has a direct effect on multivariate analysis. Satisfaction mainly comes from the authorities’ demeanor and the expectation fulfillment while it is the authorities’ behavior and the expectation fulfillment that grounds safety.

Linking the Social Services and Criminal Justice Systems

2020 ◽  
pp. 145-158
Author(s):  
Leon Ginsberg
Keyword(s):  
Social Work ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Social Workers ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Code Of Ethics ◽  
Clinical Services ◽  
Criminal Justice Program ◽  
Criminal Justice Systems ◽  
The Social ◽  
Justice Program

This chapter covers the criminal justice program structures and services and the ways in which social workers are involved in them. Social work’s involvement in the complex criminal justice system is extensive and varied. Direct or clinical practice with individuals, groups of individuals, and their families, are the primary activities of social workers in criminal justice. Social work, among the human services professions, is broader in its approaches than are most others. The social work profession not only focuses on direct or clinical services to clients and their families, but it also involves itself in larger system concerns, such as public policy and research. These nonclinical functions are included in the National Association of Social Workers’ Social Work Code of Ethics, social work licensing standards, and in programs of education for social workers.

Examination of Decision Making and Botched Lethal Injection Executions in Texas

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (12) ◽  
pp. 1715-1732
Author(s):  
Talia Roitberg Harmon ◽  
Michael Cassidy ◽  
Richelle Kloch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Death Penalty ◽  
Single Drug ◽  
Lethal Injection ◽  
Injection Protocol ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Analyze Data

This research examines the influence of lethal injection drug shortages on Texas criminal justice officials’ decision to change the state’s three-drug lethal injection protocol to the use of pentobarbital as a single drug protocol, without judicial oversight. We analyze data collected under the three- and one-drug protocols from 1982 through 2020 and compare differences in the length of time the lethal injection took, and complications reported by media witnesses. Findings suggest a higher rate of botched executions under the one-drug protocol than the three-drug protocol. We discuss the role compounding pharmacies may play in our results, the impact of this work on the U.S. Supreme Court’s death penalty jurisprudence, and implications concerning the unilateral decision making by Texas state officials.

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