The Volatility of the Output Gap in the G7

2004 ◽  
Vol 188 ◽  
pp. 100-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barell ◽  
Sylvia Gottschalk

We investigate declining output volatility in the G7 since 1970 in a panel context, seeking to explain the causes of the decline. We show that there is a significant role for both net financial wealth and trade openness as well as inflation volatility, even though previous studies have ignored the fact that it may be endogenous and its role therefore spurious. However, its importance clearly varies over time and across countries, and it appears less important as an explanation of declining volatility in the US than it does in the UK. Changes in openness appear to be at least as important in explaining the decline in US output volatility.

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 482-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Blundell ◽  
Antoine Bozio ◽  
Guy Laroque

In this paper we propose a systematic way of examining the importance of the extensive and the intensive margins of labor supply in order to explain the overall movements in total hours of work over time. We show how informative bounds can be developed on each of these margins. We apply this analysis to the evolution of hours of work in the US, the UK, and France and show that both the extensive and intensive margins matter in explaining changes in total hours.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 5831-5831
Author(s):  
Keri Keri Yang ◽  
Eleanor Lucas ◽  
Beth Lesher ◽  
Tony Caver ◽  
Boxiong Tang

Introduction: MCL is a rare, aggressive subtype of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma associated with a poor prognosis. A comprehensive understanding of the global epidemiology and economic and humanistic burden of MCL is needed to quantify the burden of disease in patients with MCL. Objective/Methods: To examine the burden of MCL, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify publications between the years 2010 to 2019 reporting on the epidemiology (incidence, prevalence, mortality, survival), economic (direct [e.g., drug costs] and indirect [e.g., lost productivity, missed days of work] costs and healthcare resource utilization [HRU; e.g., hospitalization, length of stay, emergency room use, outpatient visits]) and humanistic (e.g., quality of life [QOL], patient-reported outcome measures) burden of patients with MCL. Embase and Medline were searched via ProQuest and the Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials (CENTRAL) via the Cochrane Library. Results: A total of 2206 publications were identified, 177 full-text references screened, and 12 studies reporting epidemiology outcomes in MCL identified. Epidemiology data (1995-2016) were identified for the US (n = 5), UK (n = 2), Belgium (n = 1), France (n = 1), Netherlands (n = 1), Sweden/Denmark (n = 1), and Taiwan (n = 1). Incidence (n = 9) was lower in Taiwan (0.12 persons per 100,000) than in the US (0.8-1.15) and Europe (0.7-1.27). Six studies reported incidence over multiple time periods with 4 studies showing an increase in total incidence or incidence in men over time and 2 studies showing no change or a decrease in incidence in women over time. MCL prevalence was 3.0 per 100,000 persons in the UK (year 2011) and 3.6 per 100,000 persons in Belgium (year 2013). Mortality, reported in 1 US study, showed a consistent decrease from 1995-2013. Three-year all-cause mortality was 38% and MCL-related mortality 30%; 5-year all-cause mortality was 51% and MCL-related mortality 38%. Median overall survival (OS, n = 5) ranged from 28.8 (years 2004-2017; Europe) to 52.0 (years 1999-2013; US) months. Three-year OS (n = 2) was reported as 43.9% in the UK (2004-2017) and 61.0% in Sweden/Denmark (2006-2011). Increasing trends in survival over time were reported in 3 studies (US, Danish/Swedish, Netherlands; n = 1 each); increases in survival in the Netherlands were greatest in younger (age < 65 years) vs older patients (age ≥ 65 years). Twelve studies reported on the economic burden of MCL (Table). An increase in all costs and HRU, including outpatient encounters, emergency room visits, and days spent in the hospital, were found following vs pre MCL diagnosis. Length of hospital stays ranged from 3.0 to 8.3 days. All cause mean monthly costs for MCL patients were $5131 to $16,117 per patient month (PPM). Treatment cost varied with costs generally higher with chemoimmunotherapy and lower with targeted therapies. Adverse events (AEs) were associated with increased economic burden. Mean all-cause costs in patients with no AEs were $5131 PPM compared with $13,560 PPM in patients with ≥6 AEs. Patients experiencing 3-4 AEs during first-line therapy were almost 7-times more likely to require an inpatient admission than those experiencing only 1-2 AEs (OR, 6.9; 95% CI, 4.0-11.93). Patients with ≥6 AEs had inpatient stays lasting 2.2 days longer than those with no AEs. Common AE costs ranged from $5751 (atrial fibrillation) to $19,645 (hepatotoxicity). No studies reporting on indirect costs or the QOL impact of MCL or MCL treatment were identified. Conclusions: The increasing incidence and survival of patients with MCL along with the high costs of disease and treatment suggest an increasing economic burden. Though limited data are available on costs and HRU in populations with MCL and outcomes reported differed across studies, available data shows variability of costs among treatments influenced by AE costs. Some evidence suggests lower costs of therapy with targeted compared with chemoimmunotherapy regimens. The economic burden of MCL and MCL treatment on costs, beyond direct medical costs, needs to be quantified. Furthermore, the humanistic burden of MCL and impact on patient QOL warrants investigation. Additional epidemiology data are needed globally for MCL as well as the need for economic analyses that reflect the real-world treatment of patients with MCL. Disclosures Yang: BeiGene, Ltd.: Employment. Lucas:Pharmerit: Employment. Lesher:Pharmerit: Employment. Caver:BeiGene, Ltd.: Employment. Tang:BeiGene, Ltd.: Employment.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole L. Washington ◽  
Simon White ◽  
Kelly M. Schiabor Barrett ◽  
Elizabeth T. Cirulli ◽  
Alexandre Bolze ◽  
...  

Recently, multiple novel strains of SARS-CoV-2 have been found to share the same deletion of amino acids H69 and V70 in the virus S gene. This includes strain B.1.1.7 / SARS-CoV-2 VUI 202012/01, which has been found to be more infectious than other strains of SARS-CoV-2, and its increasing presence has resulted in new lockdowns in and travel restrictions leaving the UK. Here, we analyze 2 million RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 tests performed at Helix to identify the rate of S gene dropout, which has been recently shown to occur in tests from individuals infected with strains of SARS-CoV-2 that carry the H69del/V70del mutation. We observe a rise in S gene dropout in the US starting in early October, with 0.25% of our daily SARS-CoV-2-positive tests exhibiting this pattern during the first week. The rate of positive samples with S gene dropout has grown slowly over time, with last week exhibiting the highest level yet, at 0.5%. Focusing on the 14 states for which we have sufficient sample size to assess the frequency of this rare event (n>1000 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples), we see a recent expansion in the Eastern part of the US, concentrated in MA, OH, and FL. However, we cannot say from these data whether the S gene dropout samples we observe here represent the B.1.1.7. strain. Only with an expansion of genomic surveillance sequencing in the US will we know for certain the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 strain in the US.


2004 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 8-36

Global inflationary pressures have been building over the last 12 months. These rising pressures reflect emergence from the global recession of 2001–2 and fiscal laxity in several of the world's largest economies, as well as a number of temporary factors such as rising commodity prices and indirect tax increases. Inflation expectations, as reflected by yield differences between indexed and ordinary government debt, have edged up in the US, the Euro Area and the UK, as illustrated in Chart 1. US and UK inflation expectations are about 0.8 percentage points higher than at the start of 2003, while Euro Area inflation expectations have risen by about 0.4 percentage points. Our inflation projections for the major economies are reported in Table 1. We forecast an acceleration of inflation in the US, Germany, France and the UK this year relative to 2003, and expect deflation in Japan to come to an end from the middle of 2004. Stronger inflationary pressures in the US partly reflect the positive output gap, while output gaps in Canada and the Euro Area are expected to remain negative until the end of 2005 and 2006, respectively. Our output gap estimates are illustrated in Chart 2.


2007 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 65-68
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell

Economic growth in Europe has been disappointing in the past few years, especially when compared to the US, and in addition growth in the UK has looked more robust than that in the large continental economies. There could be many factors that contribute to these differences, and they are addressed in the articles by Crafts; Barrell, Guillemineau and Holland; Mc Morrow and Röger; and Bebee and Hunt in this Review. This introduction discusses some of the factors affecting growth, and draws some conclusions from these studies that help us understand why growth may differ between countries for sustained periods of time, and also why underlying, or trend growth rates may vary over time.


2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S2) ◽  
pp. 540-540
Author(s):  
A. Grant Hay ◽  
A. Woppmann ◽  
N. Walder ◽  
G. Szmukler ◽  
B. Schrank

IntroductionReasons for differences in the effect sizes of studies on complex interventions, such as assertive outreach, between the US and the UK are a much debated topic. One possible explanation was suggested to be the potentially different quality of standard care in the two countries.AimsWe aimed to(i) empirically establish the comparability of research results on complex interventions for people with severe mental illness (SMI) from the UK and the US, and(ii) explore developments over time in standard care in both countries by comparing studies that use “treatment as usual” (TAU) as the control intervention.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs conducted in the UK or the US(i) involving people with SMI,(ii) comparing complex interventions with TAU, and(iii) using the outcome relapse or readmission to hospital.ResultsThe Risk Ratios for relapse/readmission were very similar and favouring experimental treatment both in the UK (RR 0.80, CI 0.73–0.88) and the US (RR 0.87, CI 0.79–0.95). The development of effects resulting from experimental interventions relative to those from TAU over time shows a slightly different pattern for the two countries.ConclusionsThe broadly similar total RR for relapse/readmission in both countries confirms the comparability of studies conducted in the UK and the US and suggests no significant overall difference in the quality of standard care. The chronological development of effects, however, reflects developments in TAU over time which differ between the two countries.


Author(s):  
Ana-Belen Fernandez-Souto ◽  
Motse Vázquez-Gestal ◽  
Jose Ruas-Araujo

The following is a reflection on Spanish undergraduate studies that combine the concepts of marketing and public relations. Sharing origins and often functions and specialists, both concepts have run parallel paths that have merged on multiple occasions. This evolution has been studied from different points of view. Initially, marketing experts included PR techniques as an additional tool to grant it a greater specific instrumental relevance over time. On the other hand, PR scholars have tried to dissociate themselves from marketing in order acquire an independent position within the field of communication. In Spain, these conceptual differences are currently blurred due to the creation of new university degrees and double degrees combining both disciplines. This trend is evidenced within the Spanish university market which, throughout this article, will be compared to other markets, namely the American and the British ones, as a scientific reference for both concepts, and to the Portuguese one, given its geographical proximity. We will reflect on the reasons that have led the Spanish university market to combine both concepts and to offer official studies that include them in their nomenclature, far from the historical tradition in this country, where studies in public relations have been related to the field of communication, while those in marketing have been related to the field of economics. The identification of this trend in the job market of organisational communication professionals poses new challenges to training institutions, especially to universities.


Author(s):  
Beth Breeze

Chapter 1 reviews the historical roots and development of fundraising in the UK, highlighting important milestones and key issues that have emerged over time and that remain contentious today. Noting that asking is as old as giving, the standard origin myth of fundraising - which states that fundraising began in the US in the late 19th/early 20th century - is rejected as a-historical, overly-reliant on a ‘Great men’ explanation, and relevant only for explaining how for-profit consultancy came into being in specific countries. An alternative approach to charting the history of fundraising, focused on purpose and impact rather than people and processes, is illustrated with ten examples of the outcomes of fundraising over the centuries.


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