scholarly journals What Kind of Electoral Outcome do People Think is Good for Democracy?

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232172110555
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Damien Bol ◽  
Shaun Bowler ◽  
David M Farrell ◽  
Annika Fredén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Politics ◽  
Survey Instrument ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Electoral Institutions ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Good For ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Representative Samples

There is perennial debate in comparative politics about electoral institutions, but what characterizes this debate is the lack of consideration for citizens’ perspective. In this paper, we report the results of an original survey conducted on representative samples in 15 West European countries ( N = 15,414). We implemented an original instrument to elicit respondents’ views by asking them to rate “real but blind” electoral outcomes. With this survey instrument, we aimed to elicit principled rather than partisan preferences regarding the kind of electoral outcomes that citizens think is good for democracy. We find that West Europeans do not clearly endorse a majoritarian or proportional vision of democracy. They tend to focus on aspects of the government rather than parliament when they pass a judgment. They want a majority government that has few parties and enjoys wide popular support. Finally, we find only small differences between citizens of different countries.

Are voters' views about proportional outcomes shaped by partisan preferences? A survey experiment in the context of a real election

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Semra Sevi ◽  
Carolina Plescia
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Ultimate Outcome ◽  
The Government ◽  
Performance Conditions

Abstract We examine citizens' evaluations of majoritarian and proportional electoral outcomes through an innovative experimental design. We ask respondents to react to six possible electoral outcomes during the 2019 Canadian federal election campaign. There are two treatments: the performance of the party and the proportionality of electoral outcomes. There are three performance conditions: the preferred party's vote share corresponds to vote intentions as reported in the polls at the time of the survey (the reference), or it gets 6 percentage points more (fewer) votes. There are two electoral outcome conditions: disproportional and proportional. We find that proportional outcomes are slightly preferred and that these preferences are partly conditional on partisan considerations. In the end, however, people focus on the ultimate outcome, that is, who is likely to form the government. People are happy when their party has a plurality of seats and is therefore likely to form the government, and relatively unhappy otherwise. We end with a discussion of the merits and limits of our research design.

scholarly journals Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Lucy Barnes ◽  
Timothy Hicks
Keyword(s):  
Analogical Reasoning ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Cognitive Problem ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Household Borrowing

Abstract Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation.

Political Competition and Right-Wing Terrorism: A County-Level Analysis of the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110067
Author(s):  
Stephen C. Nemeth ◽  
Holley E. Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Politics ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
The United States ◽  
County Level ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Economic Anxiety ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Level Analysis

While many previous studies on U.S. right-wing violence center on factors such as racial threat and economic anxiety, we draw from comparative politics research linking electoral dynamics to anti-minority violence. Furthermore, we argue that the causes of right-wing terrorism do not solely rest on political, economic, or social changes individually, but on their interaction. Using a geocoded, U.S. county-level analysis of right-wing terrorist incidents from 1970 to 2016, we find no evidence that poorer or more diverse counties are targets of right-wing terrorism. Rather, right-wing violence is more common in areas where “playing the ethnic card” makes strategic sense for elites looking to shift electoral outcomes: counties that are in electorally competitive areas and that are predominantly white.

Clivage linguistique et vote économique au Canada

1998 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 557-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Guérin ◽  
Richard Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Economic Perceptions

AbstractThis study deals with the question of economic voting in Canada, notably that the electoral impact of economic perceptions with regard to the performance of the federal government has not been homogeneous among the whole Canadian electorate during the period of Liberal dominance in Quebec. Contrary to our Findings on voters in other provinces, francophone Quebeckers did not vote according to their judgment of the government on economic matters, their fidelity to the Liberal party having inhibited them in this respect. These results suggest that the absence of economic voting in Quebec during the Liberal regime may clarify, at least in part, the puzzling conclusions of previous research, that show a fragile relationship between the economy and the electoral outcomes in Canada. These findings break new ground for a better understanding of the specific electoral rationality used by minorities in long-established democracies.

How Voters Respond to Currency Crises: Evidence From Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402110602
Author(s):  
David A. Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Financial Shocks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
And Migration

A burgeoning literature shows that international trade and migration shocks influence individuals’ political attitudes, but relatively little is known about how international financial shocks impact public opinion. This study examines how one prevalent type of international financial shock—currency crises—shapes mass political attitudes. I argue that currency crises reduce average citizens’ support for incumbent governments. I also expect voters’ concerns about their own pocketbooks to influence their response to currency crises. Original survey data from Turkey support these arguments. Exploiting exogenous variation in the currency’s value during the survey window, I show that currency depreciations strongly reduce support for the government. This effect is stronger among individuals that are more negatively affected by depreciation, and it is moderated by individuals’ perceptions of their personal economic situation. This evidence suggests that international financial shocks can strongly influence the opinions of average voters, and it provides further support for pocketbook theories.

scholarly journals Psychological factors underpinning vaccine willingness in Israel, Japan and Hungary

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Goodwin ◽  
Menachem Ben-Ezra ◽  
Masahito Takahashi ◽  
Lan Anh Nguyen Luu ◽  
Krisztina Borsfay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Class ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Anticipated Regret ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Representative Samples

The rapid international spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus 19 led to unprecedented attempts to develop and administer an effective vaccine. However, there is evidence of considerable vaccine hesitancy in some countries and sub-populations. We investigated willingness to vaccinate in three nations with historically different levels of vaccine willingness and attitudes to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout: Israel, Japan and Hungary. Employing an ecological-systems approach we analysed associations between demographic factors and health status, individual cognitions, normative pressures, trust in government, belief in COVID-19 myths and willingness to be vaccinated, using data from three nationally representative samples (Israel, N=1011 (Jan 2021); Japan, N= 997 (Feb 2021); Hungary, N=1131 (Apr 2021)). In Israel 74% indicated a willingness to vaccinate, but only 51% in Japan and 31% in Hungary. Results from multigroup regression analyses indicated greater vaccine willingness amongst those who perceived benefits to vaccination, anticipated regret if not vaccinated and trusted the government. Multi-group latent class analysis of ten COVID-19 (mis)beliefs identified three classes of myths, with concerns about the alteration of DNA (Israel), allergies (Hungary) and catching COVID-19 from the vaccine (Japan) specific to vaccine willingness for each culture. Rather than focusing primarily on disease threats, intervention campaigns should focus on increasing trust and addressing culturally specific myths while emphasising the individual and social group benefits of vaccination.

scholarly journals Personas datu aizsardzības mērķis un tiesiskā regulējuma vēsturiskā attīstība

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (13) ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
Agnese Reine-Vītiņa
Keyword(s):  
Data Protection ◽  
Personal Data ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Federal Republic Of Germany ◽  
Right To Privacy ◽  
Personal Data Protection ◽  
The Right To Privacy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Mūsdienās tiesības uz privāto dzīvi nepieciešamas ikvienā demokrātiskā sabiedrībā, un šo tiesību iekļaušana konstitūcijā juridiski garantē fiziskas personas rīcības brīvību un vienlaikus arī citu – valsts pamatlikumā noteikto – cilvēka tiesību īstenošanu [5]. Personas datu aizsardzības institūts tika izveidots, izpratnes par tiesību uz personas privātās dzīves neaizskaramību saturu paplašinot 20. gadsimta 70. gados, kad vairāku Eiropas valstu valdības uzsāka informācijas apstrādes projektus, piemēram, tautas skaitīšanu u. c. Informācijas tehnoloģiju attīstība ļāva arvien vairāk informācijas par personām glabāt un apstrādāt elektroniski. Viena no tiesību problēmām bija informācijas vākšana par fizisku personu un tiesību uz privātās dzīves neaizskaramību ievērošana. Lai nodrošinātu privātās dzīves aizsardzību, atsevišķas Eiropas valstis pēc savas iniciatīvas pieņēma likumus par datu aizsardzību. Pirmie likumi par personas datu aizsardzību Eiropā tika pieņemti Vācijas Federatīvajā Republikā, tad Zviedrijā (1973), Norvēģijā (1978) un citur [8, 10]. Ne visas valstis pieņēma likumus par datu aizsardzību vienlaikus, tāpēc Eiropas Padome nolēma izstrādāt konvenciju, lai unificētu datu aizsardzības noteikumus un principus. Nowadays, the right to privacy is indispensable in every democratic society and inclusion of such rights in the constitution, guarantees legally freedom of action of a natural person and, simultaneously, implementation of other human rights established in the fundamental law of the state. The institute of personal data protection was established by expanding the understanding of the content of the right to privacy in the 70’s of the 19th century, when the government of several European countries initiated information processing projects, such as population census etc. For the development of information technology, more and more information on persons was kept and processed in electronic form. One of the legal problems was gathering of information on natural persons and the right to privacy. In order to ensure the protection of privacy, separate European countries, on their own initiative, established a law on data protection. The first laws on the protection of personal data in Europe were established in the Federal Republic of Germany, then in Sweden (1973), Norway (1978) and elsewhere. Not all countries adopted laws on data protection at the same time, so the Council of Europe decided to elaborate a convention to unify data protection rules and principles.

Right on Time: An Electoral Audit for the Publication of Vote Results

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-186
Author(s):  
Leonardo Antenangeli ◽  
Francisco Cantú
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Counting Process ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Systematic Effect ◽  
Potential Bias ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Administrative Capacity ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Do So

Abstract The publication of electoral results in real time is a common practice in contemporary democracies. However, delays in the reporting of electoral outcomes often stir up skepticism and suspicion in the vote-counting process. This issue urges us to construct a systematic test to distinguish delays attributable to manipulation to those resulting from a limited administrative capacity. This paper proposes a method to assess the potential sorting of the electoral results given the moment at which polling stations publish their vote totals. To do so, we model the time span for a polling station to report its electoral results, to identify those observations whose reported times are poorly explained by the model, and to assess a potential bias in the candidates’ vote trends. We illustrate this method by analyzing the 2006 Presidential Election in Mexico, a contest that aroused suspicion from opposition parties and public opinion alike regarding how the electoral results were reported. The results suggest that polling stations’ time logs mostly respond to their specific geographic, logistic, and sociodemographic features. Moreover, those observations that took longer than expected to report their returns had no systematic effect on the electoral outcome. The proposed method can be used as an additional post-election audit to help officials and party representatives evaluate the integrity of an election.

Social Identity, Electoral Institutions and the Number of Candidates

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric S. Dickson ◽  
Kenneth Scheve
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Politics ◽  
Social Identities ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Electoral Institutions ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Social Cleavages ◽  
Electoral Coalitions ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Relationship

The empirical literature in comparative politics holds that social cleavages affect the number of candidates or parties when electoral institutions are ‘permissive’, but it lacks a theoretical account of the strategic candidate entry and exit decisions that ultimately determine electoral coalitions in plural societies. This article incorporates citizen-candidate social identities into game-theoretic models of electoral competition under plurality and majority-runoff electoral rules, indicating that social group demographics can affect the equilibrium number of candidates, even in non-permissive systems. Under plurality rule, the relationship between social homogeneity and the effective number of candidates is non-monotonic and, contrary to the prevailing Duvergerian intuition, for some demographic configurations even the effective number of candidates cannot be near two. Empirical patterns in cross-national presidential election results are consistent with the theoretical model.

‘War is Good for Thieving!’ The Symbiosis of Crime and Warfare Among the Kuria of Tanzania

Africa ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L. Fleisher
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Young Men ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Cash Market ◽  
Cattle Raiding ◽  
Good For ◽  
Cattle Herds ◽  
The Government ◽  
Livestock Trade

AbstractAmong the agro-pastoral Kuria people of East Africa, whose population straddles the border between Tanzania and Kenya, many young men are engaged in an illicit, violent livestock trade in which cattle stolen in Tanzania are sold to Tanzanian or Kenyan buyers for cash. This raiding is inextricably bound up with the phenomenon of warfare between mutually antagonistic Kuria clans, which not only serves to legitimise raids on the enemy's cattle herds so long as the fighting rages but which also fosters and sustains an atmosphere of inter-clan enmity that lends support to cattle raiding, particularly on the herds of former adversaries, even after hostilities have ended. Clan warfare emerges as both a cause and an effect of raiding as well as serving as a training ground for novice raiders. On the basis of field research in the Tarime District lowlands, the article argues that although Kuria cattle raiding, oriented to the cash market, owes its existence to capitalist penetration and is driven by the rising demand for cattle, particularly in Kenya, it remains heavily dependent on inter-clan warfare, which has two main causes: animosity engendered by commercialised cattle raiding, and boundary adjustments initiated by the government, either for administrative reasons or, paradoxically, in an effort to resolve existing disputes over access to pasture, grazing and water.

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