Right on Time: An Electoral Audit for the Publication of Vote Results

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-186
Author(s):  
Leonardo Antenangeli ◽  
Francisco Cantú
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Counting Process ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Systematic Effect ◽  
Potential Bias ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Administrative Capacity ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Do So

Abstract The publication of electoral results in real time is a common practice in contemporary democracies. However, delays in the reporting of electoral outcomes often stir up skepticism and suspicion in the vote-counting process. This issue urges us to construct a systematic test to distinguish delays attributable to manipulation to those resulting from a limited administrative capacity. This paper proposes a method to assess the potential sorting of the electoral results given the moment at which polling stations publish their vote totals. To do so, we model the time span for a polling station to report its electoral results, to identify those observations whose reported times are poorly explained by the model, and to assess a potential bias in the candidates’ vote trends. We illustrate this method by analyzing the 2006 Presidential Election in Mexico, a contest that aroused suspicion from opposition parties and public opinion alike regarding how the electoral results were reported. The results suggest that polling stations’ time logs mostly respond to their specific geographic, logistic, and sociodemographic features. Moreover, those observations that took longer than expected to report their returns had no systematic effect on the electoral outcome. The proposed method can be used as an additional post-election audit to help officials and party representatives evaluate the integrity of an election.

Are voters' views about proportional outcomes shaped by partisan preferences? A survey experiment in the context of a real election

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Semra Sevi ◽  
Carolina Plescia
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Ultimate Outcome ◽  
The Government ◽  
Performance Conditions

Abstract We examine citizens' evaluations of majoritarian and proportional electoral outcomes through an innovative experimental design. We ask respondents to react to six possible electoral outcomes during the 2019 Canadian federal election campaign. There are two treatments: the performance of the party and the proportionality of electoral outcomes. There are three performance conditions: the preferred party's vote share corresponds to vote intentions as reported in the polls at the time of the survey (the reference), or it gets 6 percentage points more (fewer) votes. There are two electoral outcome conditions: disproportional and proportional. We find that proportional outcomes are slightly preferred and that these preferences are partly conditional on partisan considerations. In the end, however, people focus on the ultimate outcome, that is, who is likely to form the government. People are happy when their party has a plurality of seats and is therefore likely to form the government, and relatively unhappy otherwise. We end with a discussion of the merits and limits of our research design.

Thinking technology for the Anthropocene: encountering 3D printing through the philosophy of Gilbert Simondon

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Roberts
Keyword(s):  
3D Printing ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Anthropogenic Change ◽  
Technological Processes ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Social ◽  
Human Thinking ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Gilbert Simondon ◽  
Do So

The notion that the Earth has entered a new epoch characterized by the ubiquity of anthropogenic change presents the social sciences with something of a paradox, namely, that the point at which we recognize our species to be a geologic force is also the moment where our assumed metaphysical privilege becomes untenable. Cultural geography continues to navigate this paradox in conceptually innovative ways through its engagements with materialist philosophies, more-than-human thinking and experimental modes of ontological enquiry. Drawing upon the philosophy of Gilbert Simondon, this article contributes to these timely debates by articulating the paradox of the Anthropocene in relation to technological processes. Simondon’s philosophy precedes the identification of the Anthropocene epoch by a number of decades, yet his insistence upon situating technology within an immanent field of material processes resonates with contemporary geographical concerns in a number of important ways. More specifically, Simondon’s conceptual vocabulary provides a means of framing our entanglements with technological processes without assuming a metaphysical distinction between human beings and the forces of nature. In this article, I show how Simondon’s concepts of individuation and transduction intersect with this technological problematic through his far-reaching critique of the ‘hylomorphic’ distinction between matter and form. Inspired by Simondon’s original account of the genesis of a clay brick, the article unfolds these conceptual challenges through two contrasting empirical encounters with 3D printing technologies. In doing so, my intention is to lend an affective consistency to Simondon’s problematic, and to do so in a way that captures the kinds of material mutations expressive of a particular technological moment.

scholarly journals Using Intrade.com to Teach Campaign Strategies in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (01) ◽  
pp. 139-144
Author(s):  
Paul R. Abramson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Campaign Strategies ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Campaigns And Elections ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
Bid Prices ◽  
The Way

AbstractDuring the six weeks before the 2008 elections, I conducted a contest for the 72 students enrolled in my upper-division course Campaigns and Elections. Using contract prices posted by Intrade.com, an electronic gaming market based in Dublin, I asked students to choose among 10 political outcomes. The “contracts” earned by each choice were determined by the Intrade “bid” prices as of September 24, 2008, the day the contest began. The contest helped teach students about campaign strategies, the way electoral rules affect electoral outcomes, provided a reference point to discuss the campaign, and was designed to stimulate interest in the election.

Deadlock or new opening? Current state and prospects for development of Lithuanian-Belarusian relations

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 121-141
Author(s):  
Justyna Olędzka
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Future ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Eu

The purpose of this article is to discuss the trajectory of Belarusian-Lithuanian relations with a particular focus on the period after the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which resulted in a change in international relations in the region. This was the moment that redefined the Lithuanian-Belarusian relations, which until 2020 were satisfactory for both sides (especially in the economic aspect). However, Lithuania began to pursue a reactive policy of promoting the democratisation of Belarus and provided multi-level support to Belarusian opposition forces. The current problems in bilateral relations (e.g., the future of Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant located in Astravyets) have been put on the agenda for discussion at the EU level, while the instruments of a hybrid conflict in the form of an influx of immigrants into Lithuania, controlled by the Belarusian regime, have become a key issue for the future prospects of relations between Belarus and Lithuania.

scholarly journals How handshape type can distinguish between nouns and verbs in homesign

Gesture ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 354-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dea Hunsicker ◽  
Susan Goldin-Meadow
Keyword(s):  
Sign Language ◽  
Deaf Child ◽  
Stages Of Development ◽  
Linguistic Structure ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Hearing Parents ◽  
Signed Language ◽  
Combinatorial System ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Do So

All established languages, spoken or signed, make a distinction between nouns and verbs. Even a young sign language emerging within a family of deaf individuals has been found to mark the noun-verb distinction, and to use handshape type to do so. Here we ask whether handshape type is used to mark the noun-verb distinction in a gesture system invented by a deaf child who does not have access to a usable model of either spoken or signed language. The child produces homesigns that have linguistic structure, but receives from his hearing parents co-speech gestures that are structured differently from his own gestures. Thus, unlike users of established and emerging languages, the homesigner is a producer of his system but does not receive it from others. Nevertheless, we found that the child used handshape type to mark the distinction between nouns and verbs at the early stages of development. The noun-verb distinction is thus so fundamental to language that it can arise in a homesign system not shared with others. We also found that the child abandoned handshape type as a device for distinguishing nouns from verbs at just the moment when he developed a combinatorial system of handshape and motion components that marked the distinction. The way the noun-verb distinction is marked thus depends on the full array of linguistic devices available within the system.

scholarly journals CONTAINER FOR THE TRANSPORTATION AND CONSERVATION OF IMMUNOBIOLOGICALS

2008 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 03
Author(s):  
C. B. Soares ◽  
M. N. E. Reis ◽  
B. Takane ◽  
F. M. Almeida
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Virus ◽  
Low Temperatures ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Cold Chain ◽  
National Immunization Program ◽  
Immunization Program ◽  
Operational Costs ◽  
National Immunization ◽  
The Moment

A container was developed for the transport and conservation of immunological products under low temperatures of between 2 and 8 º C, within a time span of 8 hours. The container is practical, simple and userfriendly, and can be used in places without electric power, and all these advantages are added of low operational costs. The container proposed aims at meeeting the demand of the Programa Nacional de Imunizações (PNI- the National Immunization Program), through Cold Chain, which sets the standards for all the procedures concerning conservation, handling, distribution and transport of the vaccine from the laboratory that produces it to the moment of inoculation.Innitially, the container was specifically developed for Vaccine for Inactive Influenza Virus against flu, which, according to a survey conducted with laboratories, is the most widely consumed, and whose conservation time span is also applicable to other immunobiologicals After the design and construction of the prototype, the container was exhaustively tested under different weather conditions. The results of the experiment are being exposed and discussed in this paper and the prototype lived up to the expectations of the reserachers in terms of the time spans and temperatures foreseen for the conservation of the vaccine selected.

scholarly journals Humanizing intensive nursing care for people with COVID-19

Rev Rene ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. e62584
Author(s):  
Sergio Vital da Silva Junior ◽  
Aline Gomes Machado ◽  
Anny Michelle Rodrigues da Silva Alves ◽  
Katia Jaqueline da Silva Cordeiro ◽  
Maíra Bonfim Barbosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Music Therapy ◽  
Care Environment ◽  
Intensive Care Nurses ◽  
On Line ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Theoretical Saturation ◽  
Hospital Sample ◽  
Do So

Objective: to understand the impact of music on the intensive care for COVID-19 as an instrument to humanize assistance from the perspective of nurses who work on assistance. Methods: qualitative study carried out with seven intensive care nurses working in the COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit of a public state hospital. Sample reached through theoretical saturation. Data were collected using interviews through the on-line application WhatsApp, guided by a semi-structured guide. Results: the following discursive categories emerged: Feelings of health professionals and humanized actions in intensive care; Music therapy to provide integral care for people with COVID-19 in the score of intensive care; Living in the moment; Music therapy as an instrument for spirituality in the intensive care environment. Conclusion: the nursing intensive care did not only carry out a biological treatment, but considered all aspects of the human being, using to do so humanization by music.

scholarly journals Motion fluency effects on object preference is limited to learned context

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0244110
Author(s):  
Jonathan Charles Flavell ◽  
Bryony McKean
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Original Work ◽  
Object Motion ◽  
Preference Change ◽  
Behavioural Interventions ◽  
Stimulus Choice ◽  
Critical Boundary ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Do So ◽  
Object Preference

Recently, Flavell et al. (2019) demonstrated that an object’s motion fluency (how smoothly and predictably it moves) influences liking of the object itself. Though the authors demonstrated learning of object-motion associations, participants only preferred fluently associated objects over disfluently associated objects when ratings followed a moving presentation but not a stationary presentation. In the presented experiment, we tested the possibility that this apparent failure of associative learning / evaluative conditioning was due to stimulus choice. To do so we replicate part of the original work but change the ‘naturally stationary’ household object stimuli with winged insects which move in a similar way to the original motions. Though these more ecologically valid stimuli should have facilitated object to motion associations, we again found that preference effects were only apparent following moving presentations. These results confirm the potential of motion fluency for ‘in the moment’ preference change, and they demonstrate a critical boundary condition that should be considered when attempting to generalise fluency effects across contexts such as in advertising or behavioural interventions.

scholarly journals Brick Manifolds and Toric Varieties of Brick Polytopes

10.37236/5038 ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Escobar
Keyword(s):  
Toric Variety ◽  
Toric Varieties ◽  
Moment Map ◽  
Twisted Product ◽  
General Fiber ◽  
Moment Polytope ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Subword Complex ◽  
Do So

Bott-Samelson varieties are a twisted product of $\mathbb{C}\mathbb{P}^1$'s with a map into $G/B$. These varieties are mostly studied in the case in which the map into $G/B$ is birational to the image; however in this paper we study a fiber of this map when it is not birational. We prove that in some cases the general fiber, which we christen a brick manifold, is a toric variety. In order to do so we use the moment map of a Bott-Samelson variety to translate this problem into one in terms of the "subword complexes" of Knutson and Miller. Pilaud and Stump realized certain subword complexes as the dual of the boundary of a polytope which generalizes the brick polytope defined by Pilaud and Santos. For a nice family of words, the brick polytope is the generalized associahedron realized by Hohlweg, Lange and Thomas. These stories connect in a nice way: we show that the moment polytope of the brick manifold is the brick polytope. In particular, we give a nice description of the toric variety of the associahedron. We give each brick manifold a stratification dual to the subword complex. In addition, we relate brick manifolds to Brion's resolutions of Richardon varieties.

scholarly journals Institutionalized Ambiguity in Legal Status: Managing Citizenship in the U.S. Imperial Rule of the Philippines

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Quisumbing King
Keyword(s):  
Legal Status ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
The Political ◽  
Administrative Capacity ◽  
Law And Policy ◽  
State Actors ◽  
Political Realm ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Scholarly Attention ◽  
Do So

A perennial question in the scholarship of the state asks how states rule and expand their capacity to do so. Scholars have paid special attention to activities that rationalize and build administrative capacity, known as legibility projects. Alongside these projects, state actors also rule through ambiguous and unclear techniques that have been given less scholarly attention. I introduce the concept of institutionalized ambiguity in legal status to extend the study of state rule. I ask what generates ambiguity, what purposes it serves in law and policy, and what consequences it has for the management of populations. I propose an analytic approach that draws attention to equivocation in law as enabling classificatory debates and discretion in the political realm. To illustrate the purchase of institutionalized ambiguity in legal status, I analyze how, during the years of formal imperial rule (1898-1946), U.S. state actors debated the racial fitness and membership of Filipinos in the imagined U.S. nation. I consider the broader implications of this analysis for scholars of modern state formation and suggest that foundational conflicts over national identity can be institutionalized in law, in turn facilitating a range of contradictory, but co-existing, legally defensible policies.

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