scholarly journals Improved Estimation of Poisson Rate Distributions Through a Multimode Survey Design

2020 ◽  
pp. 004912411988246
Author(s):  
Marcin Hitczenko
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Hybrid Design ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Respondent Burden ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Survey Designs

Researchers interested in studying the frequency of events or behaviors among a population must rely on count data provided by sampled individuals. Often, this involves a decision between live event counting, such as a behavioral diary, and recalled aggregate counts. Diaries are generally more accurate, but their greater cost and respondent burden generally yield less data. The choice of survey mode, therefore, involves a potential trade-off between bias and variance of estimators. We use a case study comparing inferences about payment instrument use based on different survey designs to illustrate this dilemma. We then use a simulation study to show how and under what conditions a hybrid survey design can improve efficiency of estimation, in terms of mean-squared error. Overall, our work suggests that such a hybrid design can have considerable benefits, as long as there is nontrivial overlap in the diary and recall samples.

scholarly journals Reducing the Bias of the Smoothed Log Periodogram Regression for Financial High-Frequency Data

Econometrics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Erhard Reschenhofer ◽  
Manveer K. Mangat
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Periodic Patterns ◽  
Typical Sample ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Proper Interpretation

For typical sample sizes occurring in economic and financial applications, the squared bias of estimators for the memory parameter is small relative to the variance. Smoothing is therefore a suitable way to improve the performance in terms of the mean squared error. However, in an analysis of financial high-frequency data, where the estimates are obtained separately for each day and then combined by averaging, the variance decreases with the sample size but the bias remains fixed. This paper proposes a method of smoothing that does not entail an increase in the bias. This method is based on the simultaneous examination of different partitions of the data. An extensive simulation study is carried out to compare it with conventional estimation methods. In this study, the new method outperforms its unsmoothed competitors with respect to the variance and its smoothed competitors with respect to the bias. Using the results of the simulation study for the proper interpretation of the empirical results obtained from a financial high-frequency dataset, we conclude that significant long-range dependencies are present only in the intraday volatility but not in the intraday returns. Finally, the robustness of these findings against daily and weekly periodic patterns is established.

scholarly journals An Approach Based on Fog Computing for Providing Reliability in IoT Data Collection: A Case Study in a Colombian Coffee Smart Farm

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (24) ◽  
pp. 8904
Author(s):  
Ana Isabel Montoya-Munoz ◽  
Oscar Mauricio Caicedo Rendon
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fog Computing ◽  
Reliable Data ◽  
Inaccurate Data ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Smart Farming ◽  
The Internet Of Things

The reliability in data collection is essential in Smart Farming supported by the Internet of Things (IoT). Several IoT and Fog-based works consider the reliability concept, but they fall short in providing a network’s edge mechanisms for detecting and replacing outliers. Making decisions based on inaccurate data can diminish the quality of crops and, consequently, lose money. This paper proposes an approach for providing reliable data collection, which focuses on outlier detection and treatment in IoT-based Smart Farming. Our proposal includes an architecture based on the continuum IoT-Fog-Cloud, which incorporates a mechanism based on Machine Learning to detect outliers and another based on interpolation for inferring data intended to replace outliers. We located the data cleaning at the Fog to Smart Farming applications functioning in the farm operate with reliable data. We evaluate our approach by carrying out a case study in a network based on the proposed architecture and deployed at a Colombian Coffee Smart Farm. Results show our mechanisms achieve high Accuracy, Precision, and Recall as well as low False Alarm Rate and Root Mean Squared Error when detecting and replacing outliers with inferred data. Considering the obtained results, we conclude that our approach provides reliable data collection in Smart Farming.

Electricity Consumption Analysis Using Demographic Variables Case Study – Nakhonratchasima, Thailand

2013 ◽  
Vol 734-737 ◽  
pp. 1679-1682
Author(s):  
Sureeporn Meehom ◽  
Nopphadon Khodpun
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
High Speed Diesel

Electricity energy is vital in social and economic for nation development. The electricity consumption analysis plays an important role for sustainable energy and electricity resources management in the future. In this paper, the influence of demographical variables on the annual electricity consumption in Nakhonratchasima has been investigated by multiple regression analysis. It is founded that the electricity consumption correlated with four demographic variables, which are the number of electricity consumers, the amount of high speed diesel usages, the number of industrial factory and the number of employed labor force. The historical electricity consumption and all variables for the period 20022010 have been analyzed in 8 models for electricity prediction in 2011. In conclusion, the effective model has been selected by comparison of adjusted R2, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of the proposed models. Model 8 is acceptable in relation to electricity consumption analysis with adjusted-R2, RMSE and MAE equal to 0.9980, 0.7540% and 0.6095% respectively. The results indicate that the model using all four variables has strong ability to predict future annual electricity consumption with 4,195,837,877 kWh in 2011.

scholarly journals Two Different Classes of Shrinkage Estimators for the Scale Parameter of the Rayleigh Distribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21
Author(s):  
Talha Omer ◽  
Zawar Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Qasim ◽  
Said Farooq Shah ◽  
Akbar Ali Khan
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Scale Parameter ◽  
Rayleigh Distribution ◽  
Shrinkage Estimators ◽  
Unbiased Estimators ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Simulation Results

Shrinkage estimators are introduced for the scale parameter of the Rayleigh distribution by using two different shrinkage techniques. The mean squared error properties of the proposed estimator have been derived. The comparison of proposed classes of the estimators is made with the respective conventional unbiased estimators by means of mean squared error in the simulation study. Simulation results show that the proposed shrinkage estimators yield smaller mean squared error than the existence of unbiased estimators.

scholarly journals Predicting Fire Brigades Operational Breakdowns: A Real Case Study

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selene Cerna ◽  
Christophe Guyeux ◽  
Guillaume Royer ◽  
Céline Chevallier ◽  
Guillaume Plumerel
Keyword(s):  
Public Service ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Fire Departments ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Over Time

Over the years, fire departments have been searching for methods to identify their operational disruptions and establish strategies that allow them to efficiently organize their resources. The present work develops a methodology for breakage calculation and another for predicting disruptions based on machine learning techniques. The main objective is to establish indicators to identify the failures due to the temporal state of the organization in the human and vehicular material. Likewise, by forecasting disruptions, to determine strategies for the deployment or acquisition of the necessary armament. This would allow improving operational resilience and increasing the efficiency of the firemen over time. The methodology was applied to the Departmental Fire and Rescue Doubs (SDIS25) in France. However, it is generic enough to be extended and adapted to other fire departments. Considering a historic of breakdowns of 2017 and 2018, the best predictions of public service breakdowns for the year 2019, presented a root mean squared error of 2.5602 and a mean absolute error of 2.0240 on average with the XGBoost technique.

Computation-Time and Mean-Squared-Error Trade-off of Calibration Curves for Electrical Soil Conductivity Smart Sensor

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Vitor Holanda de Luna ◽  
Mariana Rodrigues Villarim ◽  
Douglas de Farias Medeiros ◽  
Renata Imaculada Soares Pereira ◽  
Cleonilson Protasio de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Smart Sensor ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Calibration Curves ◽  
Soil Conductivity

scholarly journals Modifying Two-Parameter Ridge Liu Estimator Based on Ridge Estimation

2019 ◽  
pp. 881-890
Author(s):  
Tarek Mahmoud Omara
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Error Matrix ◽  
Liu Estimator ◽  
Mean Squared Error Matrix ◽  
Ridge Estimation ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Two Parameter

In this paper, we introduce the new biased estimator to deal with the problem of multicollinearity. This estimator is considered a modification of Two-Parameter Ridge-Liu estimator based on ridge estimation. Furthermore, the superiority of the new estimator than Ridge, Liu and Two-Parameter Ridge-Liu estimator were discussed. We used the mean squared error matrix (MSEM) criterion to verify the superiority of the new estimate.  In addition to, we illustrated the performance of the new estimator at several factors through the simulation study.

scholarly journals The change in estimate method for selecting confounders: A simulation study

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022110342
Author(s):  
Denis Talbot ◽  
Awa Diop ◽  
Mathilde Lavigne-Robichaud ◽  
Chantal Brisson
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Estimate Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Work And Health

Background The change in estimate is a popular approach for selecting confounders in epidemiology. It is recommended in epidemiologic textbooks and articles over significance test of coefficients, but concerns have been raised concerning its validity. Few simulation studies have been conducted to investigate its performance. Methods An extensive simulation study was realized to compare different implementations of the change in estimate method. The implementations were also compared when estimating the association of body mass index with diastolic blood pressure in the PROspective Québec Study on Work and Health. Results All methods were susceptible to introduce important bias and to produce confidence intervals that included the true effect much less often than expected in at least some scenarios. Overall mixed results were obtained regarding the accuracy of estimators, as measured by the mean squared error. No implementation adequately differentiated confounders from non-confounders. In the real data analysis, none of the implementation decreased the estimated standard error. Conclusion Based on these results, it is questionable whether change in estimate methods are beneficial in general, considering their low ability to improve the precision of estimates without introducing bias and inability to yield valid confidence intervals or to identify true confounders.

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