Predictive Validity of the HCR-20V3 With Incarcerated Males in Mexico City

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482199752
Author(s):  
Alicia Nijdam-Jones ◽  
Eric García-López ◽  
Libertad Merchan-Rojas ◽  
Aura Ruiz Guarneros ◽  
Barry Rosenfeld
Keyword(s):  
Mexico City ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Clinical Interviews ◽  
Institutional Violence ◽  
Medium Security ◽  
Document Review ◽  
Incarcerated Males

This prospective study investigated the predictive validity of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management–20, Version 3 (HCR-20V3) in a sample of incarcerated males in a Mexico City prison. Data were collected from 114 male adults incarcerated in a medium-security prison in Mexico City. Participants were an average of 36.86 years old ( SD = 9.93 years) and were all born in Mexico. Data collection for HCR-20V3 ratings involved clinical interviews and a review of institutional documents. Aggressive incidents for a 3-month period following each completed risk assessment were collected through document review, self-report follow-up interviews, and guard reports. Participants who engaged in institutional violence during the 3-month follow-up period were given significantly higher summary risk ratings and had higher HCR-20 total scores than the participants who did not engage in violence (area under the curve [AUC] ranged from .71 to .77). The study demonstrated support for the cross-cultural utility of the HCR-20V3 for institutional violence in a Mexican prison.

Prediction of Youth and Adult Recidivism Among Spanish Juveniles Involved in Serious Offenses

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 399-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Cuervo ◽  
Lidón Villanueva ◽  
Miguel Basto-Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Young Adult ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Juvenile Period ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Juvenile Sample

This study analyzes the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Spanish juvenile sample. Participants’ age ranged between 14 and 18.09 years old ( N = 264) and 82% were boys and all had been sentenced to probation and custody centers. Data on juvenile and young adult recidivism were collected for the sample with mean follow-up periods of 13.74 and 20.19 months, respectively. The area under the curve, Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression survival analyses were each conducted to check for predictive validity. The findings demonstrated that the YLS/CMI is able to predict recidivism in both the juvenile period and the emerging adult period in a different cultural context. Prior Offenses and Education/Employment emerged as significant predictors for youth and young adult recidivism. The entire YLS/CMI is therefore an effective tool for risk classification in a different cultural sample.

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile

Assessment ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Troy E. McEwan ◽  
Daniel E. Shea ◽  
Michael Daffern ◽  
Rachel D. MacKenzie ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Duration Discrimination ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Risk Judgments ◽  
Better Than

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

The Relationship Between Grandiosity, Psychopathy, and Narcissism in an Offender Sample

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 2687-2708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Klipfel ◽  
David S. Kosson
Keyword(s):  
Personality Disorder ◽  
Construct Validity ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Clinical Interviews ◽  
Unique Variance ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Research Assistants ◽  
Incarcerated Males

Clinical accounts suggest grandiosity is an important characteristic of both psychopathy and narcissism. This study examined the relationships between grandiosity and each of these personality disorder syndromes, using a novel index, namely the Grandiosity Index. Seventy-five incarcerated males completed clinical interviews of psychopathy and narcissism and a self-report inventory of narcissism and were rated on interpersonal measures of psychopathy and narcissism. Trained research assistants rated participants on the Grandiosity Index. Analyses provided preliminary evidence of construct validity for the index. Scores on the Grandiosity Index were significantly correlated with scores on both clinical and interpersonal measures of psychopathy and narcissism and with self-reported narcissism. Regressions demonstrated that the Grandiosity Index explained substantial unique variance in psychopathy after controlling for scores on narcissism. This study demonstrates that grandiose features are associated uniquely with clinical ratings of psychopathy, though not significantly more with psychopathy than with narcissism.

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

Is the Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) a feasible and valid predictor of short-term fall risk in nursing home residents with dementia?

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn S. Sterke ◽  
Sawadi L. Huisman ◽  
Ed F. van Beeck ◽  
Caspar W. N. Looman ◽  
Tischa J. M. van der Cammen
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Nursing Home ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Dementia ◽  
Mobility Assessment ◽  
Specific Objective

ABSTRACTBackground:The feasibility and predictive validity of balance and gait measures in more severe stages of dementia have been understudied. We evaluated the clinimetric properties of the Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) in nursing home residents with dementia with a specific objective of predicting falls in the short term.Methods:Seventy-five ambulatory nursing home residents with dementia, mean age 81 ± 8 years, participated in a prospective cohort study. All participants underwent the full POMA-test. Fall statistics were retrieved from incident reports during a three-months follow-up period. The predictive validity was expressed in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Loglinear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between POMA scores and the occurrence of a fall.Results:The POMA showed several feasibility problems, with 41% of patients having problems in understanding one or more instructions. The inter-rater reliability of the instrument was good. The predictive validity was acceptable, with a sensitivity of 70–85% and a specificity of 51–61% for the POMA and its subtests, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 for POMA-Total (95% CI: 0.53–0.81), 0.67 for POMA-Balance (95% CI: 0.52–0.81), and 0.67 for POMA-Gait (95% CI: 0.53–0.81). After loglinear regression analysis, only POMA-T was significant in predicting a fall (adjusted HR = 1.08 per point lower; 95% CI 1.00–1.17).Conclusions:Application of the POMA in populations with moderate to severe dementia is hampered by feasibility problems. Its implementation in clinical practice cannot therefore be recommended, despite an acceptable predictive validity. To refine our findings, large prospective studies on the predictive validity of the POMA in populations with mild, moderate and severe dementia are needed. In addition, the performance of mobility assessment methods that are less dependent on cognition should be evaluated.

scholarly journals Late chronotype predicts more depressive symptoms in bipolar disorder over a 5 year follow-up period

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Parisa Vidafar ◽  
Anastasia K. Yocum ◽  
Peisong Han ◽  
Melvin G. McInnis ◽  
Helen J. Burgess
Keyword(s):  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Depressive Mood ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Circadian Timing ◽  
Clinical Interviews ◽  
Circadian Phase ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Larger Sample

Abstract Background There is increasing evidence that bipolar disorder is influenced by circadian timing, including the timing of sleep and waking activities. Previous studies in bipolar disorder have shown that people with later timed daily activities, also known as late chronotypes, are at higher risk for subsequent mood episodes over the following 12–18 months. However, these studies were limited to euthymic patients and smaller sample sizes. The aim of the current study was to further examine baseline chronotype as a potentially important predictor of mood-related outcomes in a larger sample of individuals with bipolar disorder and over the longest follow up period to date, of 5 years. Participants included 318 adults diagnosed with bipolar I and II (19–86 years) who were enrolled in the Prechter Longitudinal Study of Bipolar Disorder. Results Participants with a late chronotype were found to be more likely to have mild to more severe depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 ≥ 5) as captured with PHQ-9 assessments every 2 months over the 5 year follow up period. This higher risk for depressive symptoms remained even after adjusting for age, sex and mood at baseline. Additionally, late chronotypes reported fewer hypomania/mania episodes during the 5 year follow up, as derived from clinical interviews every two years. Conclusions These results highlight the potential clinical usefulness of a single self-report question, in identifying patients at risk for a more depressive mood course. The results also suggest that circadian phase advancing treatments, that can shift circadian timing earlier, should be explored as a means to reduce depressive symptoms in late chronotypes with bipolar disorder.

Time-Free Effects in Predicting Recidivism Using Both Fixed and Variable Follow-Up Periods

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony W. Flores ◽  
Alexander M. Holsinger ◽  
Christopher T. Lowenkamp ◽  
Thomas H. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Hazard Rates ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Variable Versus

We provide a comparison of analyses used to estimate predictive validity, across fixed (logistic regression and area under the curve receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]) and variable (Cox regression and Harrell’s C) lengths of follow-up. This study adds to research demonstrating a relationship between time at risk offense free and recidivism in two ways. First, reoffending hazard rates were calculated across levels of general offending risk to better understand how failure relates to time at risk. Second, this research compared validity estimates derived from Cox and logistic regression analyses to examine the importance of variable versus fixed follow-up periods. Results show that risk declines as a function of time offense free for all but low risk offenders. In addition, findings demonstrate remarkable stability in estimates of validity after just 7 months of follow-up. Finally, comparisons of Cox and logistic regression analyses, along with their related Harrell’s C and AUC-ROC validity estimates, revealed little substantive differences in prediction

The Long-Term Psychiatric Consequences of Accidental Injury

1988 ◽  
Vol 153 (6) ◽  
pp. 810-818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrik Malt
Keyword(s):  
Psychiatric Disorders ◽  
Depressive Disorders ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
General Health Questionnaire ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Accidental Injury ◽  
Impact Of Event Scale ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
Clinical Interviews

One hundred and seven accidentally injured adults were studied while in hospital and assessed prospectively twice more in a mean period of 28 months. The patients were studied by means of taped clinical interviews, including the Comprehensive Psycho-pathological Rating Scale (which includes the Montgomery-åsberg Depression Rating Scale), and several self-report measures of distress (Schedule of Recent Life Events, General Health Questionnaire, Impact of Event Scale and State Anxiety Inventory) at the three assessments. The total incidence of psychiatric disorders considered to be caused by the accident during the follow-up period was 22.4%. The incidence of non-organic psychiatric disorders caused by the accident was 16.8% at the first follow-up and 9.3% at the final follow-up. Depressive disorders of different severity were most often seen. Only one patient suffered from a posttraumatic stress disorder during the follow-up, and none at the final follow-up (DSM-III). Organic mental disorders were diagnosed in 9.3% of the patients. In 5.6% of the patients this was the only disorder.

A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107906322110197
Author(s):  
Allen Azizian ◽  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
James Rokop ◽  
Deirdre M. D’Orazio
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
State Hospitals ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
General Recidivism

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.

Research Participation Experiences of Informants of Suicide and Control Cases

Crisis ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 238-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul W. C. Wong ◽  
Wincy S. C. Chan ◽  
Philip S. L. Beh ◽  
Fiona W. S. Yau ◽  
Paul S. F. Yip ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Research Participation ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Initial Contact ◽  
Psychological Autopsy ◽  
Autopsy Study ◽  
The People ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Background: Ethical issues have been raised about using the psychological autopsy approach in the study of suicide. The impact on informants of control cases who participated in case-control psychological autopsy studies has not been investigated. Aims: (1) To investigate whether informants of suicide cases recruited by two approaches (coroners’ court and public mortuaries) respond differently to the initial contact by the research team. (2) To explore the reactions, reasons for participation, and comments of both the informants of suicide and control cases to psychological autopsy interviews. (3) To investigate the impact of the interviews on informants of suicide cases about a month after the interviews. Methods: A self-report questionnaire was used for the informants of both suicide and control cases. Telephone follow-up interviews were conducted with the informants of suicide cases. Results: The majority of the informants of suicide cases, regardless of the initial route of contact, as well as the control cases were positive about being approached to take part in the study. A minority of informants of suicide and control cases found the experience of talking about their family member to be more upsetting than expected. The telephone follow-up interviews showed that none of the informants of suicide cases reported being distressed by the psychological autopsy interviews. Limitations: The acceptance rate for our original psychological autopsy study was modest. Conclusions: The findings of this study are useful for future participants and researchers in measuring the potential benefits and risks of participating in similar sensitive research. Psychological autopsy interviews may be utilized as an active engagement approach to reach out to the people bereaved by suicide, especially in places where the postvention work is underdeveloped.

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