Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate the Effect of Unique Interventions: The Case of Say Yes to Education

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 593-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Bifulco ◽  
Ross Rubenstein ◽  
Hosung Sohn
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
School District ◽  
Graduation Rates ◽  
Control Method ◽  
New York State ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Synthetic Controls

Background: “Place-based” scholarships seek to improve student outcomes in urban school districts and promote urban revitalization in economically challenged cities. Say Yes to Education is a unique district-wide school reform effort adopted in Syracuse, NY, in 2008. It includes full-tuition scholarships for public and private universities, coupled with extensive wraparound support services in schools. Objectives: This study uses synthetic control methods to evaluate the effect of Say Yes on district enrollment and graduation rates. It also introduces the synthetic control method and provides guidance for its use in evaluating single-site interventions. Method: Combining school district-level data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Common Core of Data and New York State School Report Cards, this article uses synthetic control methods to construct a synthetic comparison district to estimate counterfactual enrollment and graduation trends for Syracuse. Results: We find that Say Yes to Education was associated with enrollment increases in the Syracuse City School District, a district that had previously experienced decades of sustained enrollment declines. We do not find consistent evidence of changes in graduation rates following adoption of the program. Conclusions: Graduation rate analyses demonstrate that estimates of treatment effects can be sensitive to choices that the researcher has to make in applying synthetic control methods, particularly when pretreatment outcome measures appear to have considerable amounts of noise.

scholarly journals Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-425
Author(s):  
Alberto Abadie
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Control Framework ◽  
The Social ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Synthetic Controls ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Data Requirements

Probably because of their interpretability and transparent nature, synthetic controls have become widely applied in empirical research in economics and the social sciences. This article aims to provide practical guidance to researchers employing synthetic control methods. The article starts with an overview and an introduction to synthetic control estimation. The main sections discuss the advantages of the synthetic control framework as a research design, and describe the settings where synthetic controls provide reliable estimates and those where they may fail. The article closes with a discussion of recent extensions, related methods, and avenues for future research. (JEL B41, C32, C54, E23, F15, O47)

scholarly journals Synthetic control method with convex hull restrictions: A Bayesian maximum a posteriori approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gyuhyeong Goh ◽  
Jisang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Convex Hull ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Maximum A Posteriori ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Bayesian Approaches ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Statistical Inferences ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods

Abstract Synthetic control methods have gained popularity among causal studies with observational data, particularly when estimating the impacts of the interventions implemented to a small number of large units. The synthetic control methods face two major challenges: a) estimating weights for each donor to create a synthetic control and b) providing statistical inferences. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian framework that implements the synthetic control method with the parallelly shiftable convex hull and provides a Bayesian inference, which is from the duality between a penalized least squares and a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) approaches. Our approach differs from the recent Bayesian approaches, which allow violating the convex hull restriction and face the potential extrapolation bias. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method leads to smaller biases compared to alternatives. We revisit Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) by applying our proposed method.

scholarly journals Decoupling synthetic control methods to ensure stability, accuracy and meaningfulness

SERIEs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Albalate ◽  
Germà Bel ◽  
Ferran A. Mazaira-Font
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Accuracy And Stability

AbstractThe synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used to evaluate causal effects under quasi-experimental designs. However, SCM suffers from weaknesses that compromise its accuracy, stability and meaningfulness, due to the nested optimization problem of covariate relevance and counterfactual weights. We propose a decoupling of both problems. We evaluate the economic effect of government formation deadlock in Spain-2016 and find that SCM method overestimates the effect by 0.23 pp. Furthermore, we replicate two studies and compare results from standard and decoupled SCM. Decoupled SCM offers higher accuracy and stability, while ensuring the economic meaningfulness of covariates used in building the counterfactual.

scholarly journals The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment*

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (623) ◽  
pp. 2722-2744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Born ◽  
Gernot J Müller ◽  
Moritz Schularick ◽  
Petr Sedláček
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Output Loss ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Time Series Estimation ◽  
Series Estimation ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Unexpected Outcome

Abstract Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.

scholarly journals An ecological study of food desert prevalence and 4th grade academic achievement in New York State school districts

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth E. Frndak
Keyword(s):  
Academic Achievement ◽  
New York ◽  
School District ◽  
School Districts ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
New York State ◽  
Food Deserts ◽  
Food Desert ◽  
Achievement Scores ◽  
York State

<p><em>Background</em>. This ecological study examines the relationship between food desert prevalence and academic achievement at the school district level. <br /><em>Design and methods.</em> Sample included 232 suburban and urban school districts in New York State. Multiple open-source databases were merged to obtain: 4th grade science, English and math scores, school district demographic composition (NYS Report Card), regional socioeconomic indicators (American Community Survey), school district quality (US Common Core of Data), and food desert data (USDA Food Desert Atlas). Multiple regression models assessed the percentage of variation in achievement scores explained by food desert variables, after controlling for additional predictors.<br /><em>Results</em>. The proportion of individuals living in food deserts significantly explained 4th grade achievement scores, after accounting for additional predictors. School districts with higher proportions of individuals living in food desert regions demonstrated lower 4th grade achievement across science, English and math. <em><br />Conclusions</em>. Food deserts appear to be related to academic achievement at the school district level among urban and suburban regions. Further research is needed to better understand how food access is associated with academic achievement at the individual level.</p>

scholarly journals Does Occupational Deregulation Affect In-Company Vocational Training? – Evidence from the 2004 Reform of the German Trade and Crafts Code

2020 ◽  
Vol 240 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petrik Runst ◽  
Jörg Thomä
Keyword(s):  
Vocational Training ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
German Trade ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Entry Restrictions ◽  
Rule Out

AbstractThe European Commission actively evaluates occupational entry restrictions in all member states. This has attracted a growing interest among scholars of the German crafts sector as it is governed by an idiosyncratic national set of rules. We estimate the effects of the deregulation of the German Trade and Crafts Code in 2004 on the overall vocational training levels in affected crafts trades. We employ Difference-in-Differences regressions as well as Synthetic Control Methods on data for the entire population of the German crafts sector. We provide evidence that the overall effect of the reform on vocational training levels was negative. While we cannot comprehensively rule out all potential confounding factors, we address competing explanations related to demand shocks, recession effect, and migration. In addition, there is evidence that the overall deregulation effects can be decomposed into a sunk-cost-channel and a firm size channel.

scholarly journals The Economic Consequences of the Mexican Drug War

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Mexican Drug War ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Proportional Reduction

AbstractMilitary crackdowns often disrupt economic development by exacerbating violence. This paper examines the case of the Mexican Drug War, employing synthetic control methods. To prove causality, I use variation on statewide military operations, as well as the rollout of the war. Findings indicate a decrease in GDP per capita equal to 0.5%, in states with military operations. Determinants by which the Mexican Drug War hampered economic development include a proportional reduction in consumption per capita, and a decline in productive investment of at least 0.3%, driven by a drop of 3.2% in commercial credit granted to businesses.

Model Cooperative Efforts between the Public and Private Agency

1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (3) ◽  
pp. 126-126
Author(s):  
A. Gidget Hopf
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York State ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Public ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Private Agency ◽  
Not For Profit ◽  
State Office ◽  
Cooperative Relationship ◽  
Visually Handicapped

In New York State, an effective and cooperative relationship exists between the Council of Agency Administrators— comprising 17 not-for-profit agencies—and the Commission for the Blind and Visually Handicapped. This paper examines the role of each organization and hopes for future collaborative plans, including calls from the agencies for a combined state Office of Rehabilitation Services.

The Occupational Therapy Programme in the State of New York

1934 ◽  
Vol 80 (331) ◽  
pp. 639-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor C. Slagle
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
State Government ◽  
Mental Hygiene ◽  
New York State ◽  
The State ◽  
York State Department ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Mental Defectives ◽  
Therapy Programme

Before proceeding with the subject of this paper, it is my very great privilege to extend to the distinguished members of the Royal Medico-Psychological Association the cordial greetings of my own Chief of Service, Dr. W. Parsons, the Commissioner of the New York State Department of Mental Hygiene, who has long held in high respect his European acquaintances in the field of psychiatry; in particular, those residing in the British Isles. For purpose of clarity it should be explained that the Department of Mental Hygiene is a branch of the State Government, and the Commissioner is charged with the execution of the laws relating to the custody, care and treatment of the insane, mental defectives and epileptics in all public and private licensed institutions.

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