Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of Holocene climate: linkages to solar science

1999 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank M. Chambers ◽  
Michael I. Ogle ◽  
Jeffrey J. Blackford

Current concern over ‘greenhouse’ warming and possible human influence upon global climate has been countered by claims that recent advances in solar theory demonstrate a greater role than previously thought for solar forcing in recent climate change. This is still disputed for this century, but new evidence from a range of palaeoenvironmental indicators lends strong support to the notion that not only the long-term (105 to 103 years) climate changes of the Pleistocene but also short-term (101 to 102 years) climate changes in the Holocene may derive in large or small part from solar variability. Evidence from recent research into proxy climate records is reviewed and set in the context of recent advances elsewhere in studies of late Quaternary palaeoenvironments and in solar science.

Factors causing global degradation of coral reefs are examined briefly as a basis for predicting the likely consequences of increases in these factors. The earlier consensus was that widespread but localized damage from natural factors such as storms, and direct anthropogenic effects such as increased sedimentation, pollution and exploitation, posed the largest immediate threat to coral reefs. Now truly global factors associated with accelerating Global Climate Change are either damaging coral reefs or have the potential to inflict greater damage in the immediate future: e.g. increases in coral bleaching and mortality, and reductions in coral calcification due to changes in sea-water chemistry with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Rises in sea level will probably disrupt human communities and their cultures by making coral cays uninhabitable, whereas coral reefs will sustain minimal damage from the rise in sea level. The short-term (decades) prognosis is indeed grim, with major reductions almost certain in the extent and biodiversity of coral reefs, and severe disruptions to cultures and economies dependent on reef resources. The long-term (centuries to millennia) prognosis is more encouraging because coral reefs have remarkable resilience to severe disruption and will probably show this resilience in the future when climate changes either stabilize or reverse.


Author(s):  
Robert A. Berner

The cycle of carbon is essential to the maintenance of life, to climate, and to the composition of the atmosphere and oceans. What is normally thought of as the “carbon cycle” is the transfer of carbon between the atmosphere, the oceans, and life. This is not the subject of interest of this book. To understand this apparently confusing statement, it is necessary to separate the carbon cycle into two cycles: the short-term cycle and the long-term cycle. The “carbon cycle,” as most people understand it, is represented in figure 1.1. Carbon dioxide is taken up via photosynthesis by green plants on the continents or phytoplankton in the ocean. On land carbon is transferred to soils by the dropping of leaves, root growth, and respiration, the death of plants, and the development of soil biota. Land herbivores eat the plants, and carnivores eat the herbivores. In the oceans the phytoplankton are eaten by zooplankton that are in turn eaten by larger and larger organisms. The plants, plankton, and animals respire CO2. Upon death the plants and animals are decomposed by microorganisms with the ultimate production of CO2. Carbon dioxide is exchanged between the oceans and atmosphere, and dissolved organic matter is carried in solution by rivers from soils to the sea. This all constitutes the shortterm carbon cycle. The word “short-term” is used because the characteristic times for transferring carbon between reservoirs range from days to tens of thousands of years. Because the earth is more than four billion years old, this is short on a geological time scale. As the short-term cycle proceeds, concentrations of the two principal atmospheric gases, CO2 and CH4, can change as a result of perturbations of the cycle. Because these two are both greenhouse gases—in other words, they adsorb outgoing infrared radiation from the earth surface—changes in their concentrations can involve global warming and cooling over centuries and many millennia. Such changes have accompanied global climate change over the Quaternary period (past 2 million years), although other factors, such as variations in the receipt of solar radiation due to changes in characteristics of the earth’s orbit, have also contributed to climate change.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kensuke Kimura ◽  
Daisuke Yasutake ◽  
Takahiro Oki ◽  
Koichiro Yoshida ◽  
Masaharu Kitano

Abstract Background and Aims Most perennial plants memorize cold stress for a certain period and retrieve the memories for cold acclimation and deacclimation, which leads to seasonal changes in cold-hardiness. Therefore, a model for evaluating cold stress memories is required for predicting cold-hardiness and for future frost risk assessments under warming climates. In this study we develop a new dynamic model of cold-hardiness by introducing a function imitating past temperature memory in the processes of cold acclimation and deacclimation. Methods We formulated the past temperature memory for plants using thermal time weighted by a forgetting function, and thereby proposed a dynamic model of cold-hardiness. We used the buds of tea plants (Camellia sinensis) from two cultivars, ‘Yabukita’ and ‘Yutakamidori’, to calibrate and validate this model based on 10 years of observed cold-hardiness data. Key Results The model captured more than 90 % of the observed variation in cold-hardiness and predicted accurate values for both cultivars, with root mean square errors of ~1.0 °C. The optimized forgetting function indicated that the tea buds memorized both short-term (recent days) and long-term (previous months) temperatures. The memories can drive short-term processes such as increasing/decreasing the content of carbohydrates, proteins and antioxidants in the buds, as well as long-term processes such as determining the bud phenological stage, both of which vary with cold-hardiness. Conclusions The use of a forgetting function is an effective means of understanding temperature memories in plants and will aid in developing reliable predictions of cold-hardiness for various plant species under global climate warming.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 10051-10070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meghan M. Dalton ◽  
Karen M. Shell

Abstract The climate sensitivity uncertainty of global climate models (GCMs) is partly due to the spread of individual feedbacks. One approach to constrain long-term climate sensitivity is to use the relatively short observational record, assuming there exists some relationship in feedbacks between short and long records. The present work tests this assumption by regressing short-term feedback metrics, characterized by the 20-yr feedback as well as interannual and intra-annual metrics, against long-term longwave water vapor, longwave atmospheric temperature, and shortwave surface albedo feedbacks calculated from 13 twentieth-century GCM simulations. Estimates of long-term feedbacks derived from reanalysis observations and statistically significant regressions are consistent with but no more constrained than earlier estimates. For the interannual metric, natural variability contributes to the feedback uncertainty, reducing the ability to estimate the interannual behavior from one 20-yr time slice. For both the interannual and intra-annual metrics, uncertainty in the intermodel relationships between 20-yr metrics and 100-yr feedbacks also contributes to the feedback uncertainty. Because of differences in time scales of feedback processes, relationships between the 20-yr interannual metric and 100-yr water vapor and atmospheric temperature feedbacks are significant for only one feedback calculation method. The intra-annual and surface albedo relationships show more complex behavior, though positive correspondence between Northern Hemisphere surface albedo intra-annual metrics and 100-yr feedbacks is consistent with previous studies. Many relationships between 20-yr metrics and 100-yr feedbacks are sensitive to the specific GCMs included, highlighting that care should be taken when inferring long-term feedbacks from short-term observations.


Author(s):  
D. G. Galkin

The goal of the article is to work out recommendations aimed at providing sustainability of agriculture development on the level of national economy in conditions of changing climate. The agriculture development within the frames of traditional approach can be studied in two aspects: as a sector subjected to the global climate change impact; as a sector promoting climate change due to greenhouse gas emission. The authors showed that in regard to present trends scientific recommendations aimed at agriculture adaptation to climate changes are the most significant for Russia. On the basis of provided concepts they identified key lines in the said adaptation: to develop innovation connected with adaptation to consequences of climate changes; to upgrade the system of agro-insurance; to use methods of organic food production; to monitor and appraise adaptation of agriculture to climate changes; to introduce strategic planning of sustainable development and location of agricultural production. These lines should be realized on the basis of integrity, strategic orientation and scientific support of agricultural production. These lines can stabilize the level of key parameters of the sector in the long-term perspective.


TRIKONOMIKA ◽  
2020 ◽  

This paper investigates the factors that determine bank profitability in Indonesia particularly on state-owned banks during the 2007 to 2017. The research applied Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to measure short-term and long-term effects of independent variable on dependent variable. The research data ini this paper is drawn from two main sources namely Bank Indonesia (BI) and Financial Services Authority (OJK) from 2007 to 2017. The findings showed that in the long term, BOPO, LDR, NPLs, economic growth, and exchange rates have positive relationship toward bank profitability while in the short term, inflation and BI rates do not have effect on bank profitability. However, in the short run, all variables mentioned do not have impact toward banking profitability. In addition, based on Impulse Response Function test, it showed that there are only two independent variables are able to provide a response in case of shock, namely inflation and the exchange rate toward bank’s profitability.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 104-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menelaos Apostolou

Abstract. A considerable proportion of the population experiences varying degrees of same-sex attraction. It has been proposed that men exhibit high tolerance to their partner’s same-sex infidelity, which allows such predispositions to exist in a relative high frequency in the population. On this basis, the hypothesis was tested that heterosexual men and women would differ in their tolerance level, with men exhibiting higher tolerance to same-sex infidelity than women. Evidence from an online sample of 590 heterosexual Greek-speaking participants provided strong support for this hypothesis. In particular, the vast majority of women exhibited low tolerance, while about one in two men exhibited high tolerance to same-sex infidelity. Furthermore, men and women exhibited higher tolerance to the same-sex infidelity of their long-term than of their short-term partners, with men exhibiting higher tolerance in the latter case. In addition, women exhibited low tolerance to opposite-sex and same-sex infidelity, but men exhibited low tolerance to opposite-sex infidelity, but much higher tolerance to same-sex infidelity.


Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6493) ◽  
pp. 869-874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin J. P. Sullivan ◽  
Simon L. Lewis ◽  
Kofi Affum-Baffoe ◽  
Carolina Castilho ◽  
Flávia Costa ◽  
...  

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.


Science ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 318 (5850) ◽  
pp. 612-612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott R. Saleska ◽  
Kamel Didan ◽  
Alfredo R. Huete ◽  
Humberto R. da Rocha

Coupled climate-carbon cycle models suggest that Amazon forests are vulnerable to both long- and short-term droughts, but satellite observations showed a large-scale photosynthetic green-up in intact evergreen forests of the Amazon in response to a short, intense drought in 2005. These findings suggest that Amazon forests, although threatened by human-caused deforestation and fire and possibly by more severe long-term droughts, may be more resilient to climate changes than ecosystem models assume.


2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
◽  

The Global Cloud-Resolving Model is a next-generation atmospheric global model with potential to open up new areas in numerical weather forecasting and climate simulation. The new model, called NICAM, has shown realistic behavior for precipitation systems over the global domain, particularly over the tropics. One impact of the global cloud-resolving model is the attainment of realistic simulation of rainfall in the tropics realizing a multiscale nature from kilometer to planetary, because rainfall in the tropics affects short-term local tropical weather and the long-term global climate. We review the global cloud-resolving model using simulation results from NICAM, and discuss its applicability in reducing natural weather disasters.


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