Reliability Analysis of Cracking and Faulting Prediction in the New Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Procedure

2005 ◽  
Vol 1936 (1) ◽  
pp. 150-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Darter ◽  
Lev Khazanovich ◽  
Tom Yu ◽  
Jag Mallela
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Pavement Design ◽  
Rigid Pavement ◽  
Pavement Distress ◽  
Reliability Based Design ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Reliability Performance

Reliability analysis is an important part of the mechanistic–empirical pavement design guide (M-E PDG). Even though mechanistic concepts provide a more accurate and realistic methodology for pavement design, a practical method to consider the uncertainties and variations in design and construction is needed so that a new or rehabilitated pavement can be designed for a desired level of reliability (performance as designed). Several methods, ranging from closed-form approaches to simulation-based methods, can be adopted to perform reliability-based design. However, some methods may be more suitable than others, given the complexities of the design procedure. A formal definition of reliability within the context of the M-E PDG, as well as two reliability analysis approaches considered for incorporation into the design procedure for evaluating the reliability of the rigid pavement design for cracking and faulting, was evaluated. A Monte Carlo–based simulation was combined with the damage accumulation procedure for rigid pavement distress prediction. This approach is recommended for future improvements of the procedure. The development of the reliability analysis procedure implemented into the M-E PDG also was documented. It was demonstrated that although the adopted approach is not as sophisticated as a Monte Carlo–based one, it still represents a step forward compared with AASHTO-93 reliability analysis.

Incorporation of Reliability into Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design

2000 ◽  
Vol 1730 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Timm ◽  
David E. Newcomb ◽  
Theodore V. Galambos
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Fatigue Cracking ◽  
Pavement Design ◽  
Pavement Performance ◽  
Type I ◽  
Standard Design ◽  
Input Parameters

Pavement thickness design traditionally has been based on empiricism. However, mechanistic-empirical (M-E) design procedures are becoming more prevalent, and there is a current effort by AASHTO to establish a nationwide M-E standard design practice. Concurrently, an M-E design procedure for flexible pavements tailored to conditions within Minnesota has been developed and is being implemented. Regardless of the design procedure type, inherent variability associated with the design input parameters will produce variable pavement performance predictions. Consequently, for a complete design procedure, the input variability must be addressed. To account for input variability, reliability analysis was incorporated into the M-E design procedure for Minnesota. Monte Carlo simulation was chosen for reliability analysis and was incorporated into the computer pavement design tool, ROADENT. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by using ROADENT in conjunction with data collected from the Minnesota Road Research Project and the literature. The analysis demonstrated the interactions between the input parameters and showed that traffic weight variability exerts the largest influence on predicted performance variability. The sensitivity analysis also established a minimum number of Monte Carlo cycles for design (5,000) and characterized the predicted pavement performance distribution by an extreme value Type I function. Finally, design comparisons made between ROADENT, the 1993 AASHTO pavement design guide, and the existing Minnesota design methods showed that ROADENT produced comparable designs for rutting performance but was somewhat conservative for fatigue cracking.

Load Transfer Characteristics of Roller-Compacted Concrete Pavement Joints and Cracks

1996 ◽  
Vol 1525 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
David W. Pittman
Keyword(s):  
Load Transfer ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Pavement Design ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Army Corps Of Engineers ◽  
Rigid Pavement ◽  
Corps Of Engineers ◽  
Roller Compacted Concrete ◽  
Transfer Characteristics ◽  
Falling Weight

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ design procedure for roller-compacted concrete (RCC) pavements assumes that no load transfer is achieved at RCC joints or cracks. This is in contrast to the Corps of Engineers’ rigid pavement design procedure for airfields, parking areas, and open storage areas, where a 25 percent load transfer is assumed for all joints and cracks. The no-load-transfer assumption for RCC pavements is conservative and is based upon limited data that indicated that RCC pavement joints did not achieve a 25 percent load transfer. The purpose of this study was to identify common types of RCC pavement joints and cracks, to determine the load transfer characteristics of these joint and crack types at 12 RCC pavement test sites using the falling weight deflectometer and to indicate the effect of incorporating these load transfer characteristics within the corps’ RCC pavement design procedure. Thirteen RCC pavement joint and crack types were identified. The mean load transfer achieved at these joints and cracks varied from 4 percent to 32 percent, and was no less than 10 percent for the most common joints and cracks found. In two design examples comparing the existing corps RCC pavement design procedure with a modified version incorporating 10–15 percent load transfer, the design RCC pavement thickness decreased 8–17 percent.

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis of Rigid Pavement Design Based on Semi-Empirical Methods: Romanian Case Study

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 168
Author(s):  
Costel Pleșcan ◽  
Elena-Loredana Pleșcan ◽  
Mariana D. Stanciu ◽  
Marius Botiș ◽  
Daniel Taus
Keyword(s):  
Input Data ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Plain Concrete ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Pavement Design ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Rigid Pavement ◽  
Pavement Structures

Due to the intensive process of road construction or rehabilitation of pavement caused by an increase in traffic volume, in the field of rigid pavement design and research in Romania, we can say that there is a need to improve the design method. In the last decade, more and more researchers have been concerned about climate change and the increase in traffic volume; hence, there is a need for a renewal of the climatological, as well as traffic, databases because these are part of the input data for the design process. The design method currently used in Romania for jointed plain concrete pavement design is NP081/2002. The limitation of the data and the lack of lifetime estimation of structural and functional performance are the main aspects that need to be addressed in the new design procedure. The Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design (MEPDG) method offers the possibility of the design of pavement structures by estimating the structural and functional performances. This paper aims to obtain a comparative study of these two methods for the analysis of the input data collected from the field corresponding to the three failure criteria, while the symmetry of the characteristics of the material and their asymmetrical thicknesses are compared, thus contributing to the design of viable and long-lasting pavement structures using a rigid pavement with the specific characteristics of the mountainous area in northeastern Romania on the national road DN17 Suceava—Vatra Dornei. The novelty of this study consists of the implementation of the mechanistic–empirical method MEPDG instead of the old NP081/2002 method used in Romania.

Systematic Vibration Reliability Analysis of Random Parametered Gear Sets With Analytic and Multi-Crossing Monte Carlo Simulation Methods

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ma Yupeng ◽  
Zhang Jianguo ◽  
Qiu Jiwei
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Vibration Response ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Driven Systems ◽  
Vibration Responses ◽  
Vibration Reliability ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Nonstationary Stochastic Processes

Vibration reliability analysis of gear sets considering various kinds of nonlinear random factors is essential for the safety of gear driven systems. In this paper, a rational definition of gear sets vibration reliability was presented at first by taking all kinds of vibration responses including displacement, velocity and acceleration into account uniformly by treating them as a series system with statistically independent components. According to the given definition, a systematic analyzing scheme for the vibration reliability of gear sets was proposed. Vibration reliability estimated via the analyzing scheme would make it conservative but more safely in design of gear driven systems. Subsequently, both analytic and numerical methods for gear sets vibration response reliability estimation were carried out based on the proposed analyzing scheme. The analytic method is suitable for the situations that the vibration responses of gears sets under random circumstances are stationary stochastic responses. While, the numerical method named Multi-crossing Monte Carlo Simulation (MULCMCS) can well solve the reliability estimating problems even when the vibration responses of gear sets are nonstationary stochastic processes. Finally, for illustration, a numerical case of analyzing the vibration response reliability of a single degree-of-freedom (DOF) gear set was given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the MULCMCS method.

A Reliability-Based Calibration Study for Upheaval Buckling of Pipelines

1997 ◽  
Vol 119 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. J. Mo̸rk ◽  
T. Bjo̸rnsen ◽  
A. Vena˚s ◽  
F. Thorkildsen
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Upheaval Buckling ◽  
Reliability Based Design ◽  
Response Surface Technique ◽  
Calibration Study ◽  
Surface Technique

The present paper describes a reliability-based design procedure against upheaval buckling of rock or soil-covered pipelines. The failure mode considered is “snap-through” buckling. The study is performed using state-of-the-art design methodologies, including an assessment of all known uncertainties related to the load and capacity, measurements, surveys, and confidence in the applied models. A response surface technique is applied within the level III reliability analysis. Target safety levels are discussed for both SLS and ULS conditions, and a case-specific reliability-based calibration study is performed in order to derive a consistent design format.

scholarly journals Study on Rigid Pavement Analysis and Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1842-1850
Author(s):  
Partha Roy
Keyword(s):  
Road Network ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Pavement Design ◽  
Rigid Pavement ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Vital Importance

Abstract: Roads are of vital importance to make a nation rich and develop. A well-connected road network is required for industrial as well as civilization growth. This paper consists of a review on the methodologies followed in rigid pavement design. There are various methods of rigid pavement design. Rigid pavement design procedure explained in this paper.

Improving airport runway rigid pavement design using influence surfaces

2021 ◽  
Vol 284 ◽  
pp. 122702
Author(s):  
Yu Tian ◽  
Peng Xiang ◽  
Shifu Liu ◽  
Jianming Ling ◽  
Rui Tang
Keyword(s):  
Pavement Design ◽  
Rigid Pavement ◽  
Airport Runway

scholarly journals AB0140 A HIGH-CONFIDENCE DEFINITION OF THERAPEUTIC RESPONSE IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS USING A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1097.2-1098
Author(s):  
V. Strand ◽  
S. Cohen ◽  
L. Zhang ◽  
T. Mellors ◽  
A. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Disease Activity ◽  
Health Assessment Questionnaire ◽  
Health Assessment ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Response Status ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Fidelity Score ◽  
Assessment Questionnaire

Background:Therapy choice and therapy change depend on the ability to accurately assess patients’ disease activity. The clinical assessments used to evaluate treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis have inherent variability, normally considered as measurement error, intra-observer variability or within subject variability. Each contribute to variability in deriving response status as defined by composite measures such as the ACR or EULAR criteria, particularly when a one-time observed measurement lies near the boundary defining response or non-response. To select an optimal therapeutic strategy in the burgeoning age of precision medicine in rheumatology, achieve the lowest disease activity and maximize long-term health outcomes for each patient, improved treatment response definitions are needed.Objectives:Develop a high-confidence definition of treatment response and non-response in rheumatoid arthritis that exceeds the expected variability of subcomponents in the composite response criteria.Methods:A Monte Carlo simulation approach was used to assess ACR50 and EULAR response outcomes in 100 rheumatoid arthritis patients who had been treated for 6 months with a TNF inhibitor therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were run with 2000 iterations implemented with measurement variability derived for each clinical assessment: tender joint count, swollen joint count, Health Assessment Questionnaire disability index (HAQ-DI), patient pain assessment, patient global assessment, physician global assessment, serum C-reactive protein level (CRP) and disease activity score 28-joint count with CRP.1-3 Each iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation generated one outcome with a value of 0 or 1 indicating non-responder or responder, respectively.Results:A fidelity score, calculated separately for ACR50 and EULAR response, was defined as an aggregated score from 2000 iterations reported as a fraction that ranges from 0 to 1. The fidelity score depicted a spectrum of response covering strong non-responders, inconclusive statuses and strong responders. A fidelity score around 0.5 typified a response status with extreme variability and inconclusive clinical response to treatment. High-fidelity scores were defined as >0.7 or <0.3 for responders and non-responders, respectively, meaning that the simulated clinical response status label among all simulations agreed at least 70% of the time. High-confidence true responders were considered as those patients with high-fidelity outcomes in both ACR50 and EULAR outcomes.Conclusion:A definition of response to treatment should exceed the expected variability of the clinical assessments used in the composite measure of therapeutic response. By defining high-confidence responders and non-responders, the true impact of therapeutic efficacy can be determined, thus forging a path to development of better treatment options and advanced precision medicine tools in rheumatoid arthritis.References:[1]Cheung, P. P., Gossec, L., Mak, A. & March, L. Reliability of joint count assessment in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic literature review. Semin Arthritis Rheum43, 721-729, doi:10.1016/j.semarthrit.2013.11.003 (2014).[2]Uhlig, T., Kvien, T. K. & Pincus, T. Test-retest reliability of disease activity core set measures and indices in rheumatoid arthritis. Ann Rheum Dis68, 972-975, doi:10.1136/ard.2008.097345 (2009).[3]Maska, L., Anderson, J. & Michaud, K. Measures of functional status and quality of life in rheumatoid arthritis: Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ), Modified Health Assessment Questionnaire (MHAQ), Multidimensional Health Assessment Questionnaire (MDHAQ), Health Assessment Questionnaire II (HAQ-II), Improved Health Assessment Questionnaire (Improved HAQ), and Rheumatoid Arthritis Quality of Life (RAQoL). Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) 63 Suppl 11, S4-13, doi:10.1002/acr.20620 (2011).Disclosure of Interests:Vibeke Strand Consultant of: Abbvie, Amgen, Arena, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celltrion, Galapagos, Genentech/Roche, Gilead, GSK, Ichnos, Inmedix, Janssen, Kiniksa, Lilly, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Samsung, Sandoz, Sanofi, Setpoint, UCB, Stanley Cohen: None declared, Lixia Zhang Shareholder of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Employee of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Ted Mellors Shareholder of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Employee of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Alex Jones Shareholder of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Employee of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Johanna Withers Shareholder of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Employee of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Viatcheslav Akmaev Shareholder of: Scipher Medicine Corporation, Employee of: Scipher Medicine Corporation

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