scholarly journals Regional Integration, Monetary Cooperation: Evidence from Global VAR Models for the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 65-79
Author(s):  
Mohsen Khezri ◽  
Muhamed Zulkhibri ◽  
Reza Ghazal
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organization ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Monetary Cooperation ◽  
Global Var ◽  
Global Vector

Using quarterly data over the 1996 Q1 to 2015 Q5 period and a global vector regression (GVAR) model, this article empirically investigates the effect of supply, demand, and external shocks on member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in order to examine if these countries have the ground to form a monetary union. The results suggest asymmetric response of central banks in these countries to domestic and external shocks and differentials in the impulse response of the macroeconomic variables to shocks: the response of the central banks of Kyrgyzstan and Russia to domestic shocks and of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia to external shocks are short term and severe. Based on our results, forming a monitory union may not be feasible.

The causes of poverty in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
I.S. Ivanchenko
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Subject. This article analyzes the changes in poverty of the population of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The article aims to identify macroeconomic variables that will have the most effective impact on reducing poverty in Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of logical, comparative, and statistical analyses. Results. The article presents a list of macroeconomic variables that, according to Western scholars, can influence the incomes of the poorest stratum of society and the number of unemployed in the country. The regression analysis based on the selected variables reveals those ones that have a statistically significant impact on the financial situation of the Russian poor. Relevance. The results obtained can be used by the financial market mega-regulator to make anti-poverty decisions. In addition, the models built can be useful to the executive authorities at various levels for short-term forecasting of the number of unemployed and their income in drawing up regional development plans for the areas.

ANALYSIS OF THE SCO NATIONAL PAYMENT SYSTEMS AND PROPOSALS FOR OPTIMIZATION OF THE SETTLEMENTS IN SCO

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 147-158
Author(s):  
L. N. KRASAVINA ◽  
◽  
L. I. KHOMYAKOVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
External Factor ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Payment System ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organization ◽  
Regional Features

The article discusses the features of the functioning of national payment systems of the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The specifics of the payment systems of the SCO countries are revealed, the emphasis is placed on their regional features. The role of central banks in ensuring the stable and safe functioning of national payment systems is highlighted. The importance of the supervisory function of central banks in order to control the payment system operators of the SCO countries is emphasized. Forecasts of the development of remote and digital technologies in the payment sector are given taking into account the influence of a new external factor (pandemic).

scholarly journals Crédito consignado: segmentos e efeitos econômicos

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-810
Author(s):  
Angélica Pott de Medeiros ◽  
Giulia Xisto de Oliveira ◽  
Reisoli Bender Filho
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recession ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Public ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Vector Estimation

Resumo: O cenário de instabilidade política, a recessão econômica e as mudanças nas regras de concessão de crédito pautaram o objetivo de examinar o relacionamento do crédito consignado, por segmento de concessão, com variáveis macroeconômicas, caso do consumo, da produção industrial e do produto agregado, na última década (2007-2017). Os resultados foram obtidos por meio da estimação do vetor de correção de erros, funções de impulso-resposta e decomposição da variância, possibilitando a análise das relações de curto e de longo prazo entre as séries temporais e indicaram que as diferentes modalidades do crédito consignado implicam efeitos distintos sobre as variáveis econômicas em curto prazo. O segmento de aposentados e pensionistas impacta positivamente ambas as variáveis analisadas, com destaque para os bens de consumo das famílias. Já a concessão ao setor privado, embora represente a menor parcela do crédito consignado concedido, mostrou elevada sensibilidade a alterações na oferta dessa modalidade de crédito, enquanto que o crédito ao setor público, de maior participação, apresentou efeitos reduzidos e de curta duração.Palavras-chave: Crédito consignado. Segmentos. Economia brasileira. Payroll loans: segments and economic effects Abstract: The environment of political instability, economic recession and changes in the rules of granting credit were guiders to aim to examine the payroll loans relationship, by concession segment, with macroeconomic variables, case of consumption, industrial production and aggregate product, in the last decade (2007-2017). The results obtained by error correction vector estimation, and functions of impulse-response and variance decomposition, making it possible to analyze the short- and long-term relationships between the time series and indicated that the different modalities of payroll loans imply different effects on economic short-term variables. With retirees and pensioners segment positively impact on both analyzed variables, highlighting the household consumption goods. The concession to the private sector, although it represents the smallest portion of payroll loans granted, it showed high sensitivity to the changes of this modality. About credit to the public sector, which has the biggest portion, it showed reduced and short-term effects.Keywords: Payroll loans. Segments. Brazilian economy.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
Ilyasova Gulmira Garifollaevna ◽  
Bekmukhametova Assemgul Bauirzhanovna
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Methodological Research ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Near Future

Purpose: Currently due to Kazakhstan's high vulnerability to external shocks, Kazakhstan needs new growth factors to accelerate and provide more inclusive growth. The National Bank of Kazakhstan, as the central bank, is responsible for the development and implementation of state monetary and credit policy within the framework of powers provided by current legislation. Objectives of monetary policy are primarily carried out to achieve this goal. Restoration of trust to actions of economic authorities is possible only if a balanced and responsible policy, supported by concrete actions and results, is implemented. Methodology: This study provides a literature review of domestic and foreign authors, who conducted the study of monetary policy of Central Banks of countries in various aspects of international experience.  The study gives an analytical overview of the current monetary policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Main Findings: The study discusses the importance of Kazakhstan’s monetary-credit regulation as only by means of effective monetary policy state can mitigate economic crises, restrain inflation growth and stimulate investments in various sectors of country's economy. The studies are systematized theoretical and methodological research aspects of the monetary policy of Kazakhstan of which the conclusions and recommendations proposed to improve the economy of our country. Implications/Applications:  This suggests that we should work in the near future, look for drivers of growth, so as to ensure not just an anti-crisis manual management of the economy, but to enter the rails of sustainable development.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saliha Meftah ◽  
Abdelkader Nassour
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Causality Relationship

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of a country. This study aims to examine what factors influence foreign direct investment. By using the vector error correction model, the research shows that there is a long-term causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation with FDI. However, in the short term, there are no variables that affect FDI. Besides, the Granger causality test shows causality in the direction of GDP and FDI, while other variables do not have causality. This research has implications for policymakers to pay attention to macroeconomic variables in increasing the flow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks and Their Competitors

2019 ◽  
pp. 736-778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre L. Siklos
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
Confidence Set ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Model Confidence Set

This chapter explores short-term sources of inflation forecast disagreement in nine advanced economies. Domestic versus global factors among other determinants are considered. The chapter also adapts an idea from the model confidence set approach to obtain a quasi-confidence interval for inflation forecast disagreement. Some forecasters may change their outlook, especially when data are frequently revised (e.g., the output gap). This extension is also considered. Estimates of disagreement are found to be sensitive to the chosen benchmark, and central banks need not always be the benchmark of choice. The range of forecast disagreement can be high even when levels of disagreement are low. There is little evidence that forecasts are strongly coordinated with those of the central bank. Finally, at least over the period considered, which covers the end of the Great Moderation and the global financial crisis, there is consistent evidence that global factors impact forecast disagreement.

scholarly journals The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables On the Saudi Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 126-152
Author(s):  
Amani Mohammed Aldukhail
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Time Deposits

This study aimed at exploring the effect of macroeconomic variables on the activity of the Saudi stock market for the period 1997-2017. Macroeconomic variables were: GDP, interest rate on time deposits, inflation rate. The variables of the Saudi stock market activity were: stock price index, market value of shares, value of traded shares. To achieve this objective, the researcher used the ARDL model for the self-regression of the lagged distributed time gaps. The most important results of the research are: The effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators in the Saudi stock market is not important in the short term and is statistically significant in the long term according to the proposed models, so investors in this market can rely on macroeconomic variables in Predict the movement of the stock market and predict long-term profits and losses.

scholarly journals Risks and the influence of negative interest rates on economic activity: a case study of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-41
Author(s):  
Liběna Černohorská ◽  
Darina Kubicová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of negative interest rates on economic activity in a selected group of countries, in particular Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, for the period 2009–2018. The central banks of these countries were among the first to implement negative interest rates to revive the economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzed long- and short-term relationships between interest rates announced by central banks and gross domestic product and blue chip stock indices. Time series analysis was conducted using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis and Granger causality testing to identify long- and short-term relationship. The first step, using the Akaike criteria, was to determine the optimal delay of the entire time interval for the analyzed periods. Time series that seem to be stationary were excluded based on the results of the Dickey-Fuller test. Further testing continued with the Engle-Granger test if the conditions were met. It was designed to identify co-integration relationships that would show correlation between the selected variables. These tests showed that at a significance level of 0.05, there is no co-integration between any time series in the countries analyzed. On the basis of these analyses, it was determined that there were no long-term relationships between interest rates and GDP or stock indices for these countries during the monitored time period. Using Granger causality, the study only confirmed short-term relationship between interest rates and GDP for all examined countries, though not between interest rates and the stock indices. Acknowledgment The paper has been created with the financial support of The Czech Science Foundation GACR 18-05244S – Innovative Approaches to Credit Risk Management.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Regional Tourism Demand Using the Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive (BGVAR) Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. George Assaf ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
Haiyan Song ◽  
Mike G. Tsionas
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Regional Tourism ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Global Vector

Increasing levels of global and regional integration have led to tourist flows between countries becoming closely linked. These links should be considered when modeling and forecasting international tourism demand within a region. This study introduces a comprehensive and accurate systematic approach to tourism demand analysis, based on a Bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model. An empirical study of international tourist flows in nine countries in Southeast Asia demonstrates the ability of the BGVAR model to capture the spillover effects of international tourism demand in this region. The study provides clear evidence that the BGVAR model consistently outperforms three other alternative VAR model versions throughout one- to four-quarters-ahead forecasting horizons. The potential of the BGVAR model in future applications is demonstrated by its superiority in both modeling and forecasting tourism demand.

scholarly journals Money Neutrality, Monetary Aggregates and Machine Learning

Algorithms ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Periklis Gogas ◽  
Theophilos Papadimitriou ◽  
Emmanouil Sofianos
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Divisia Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run

The issue of whether or not money affects real economic activity (money neutrality) has attracted significant empirical attention over the last five decades. If money is neutral even in the short-run, then monetary policy is ineffective and its role limited. If money matters, it will be able to forecast real economic activity. In this study, we test the traditional simple sum monetary aggregates that are commonly used by central banks all over the world and also the theoretically correct Divisia monetary aggregates proposed by the Barnett Critique (Chrystal and MacDonald, 1994; Belongia and Ireland, 2014), both in three levels of aggregation: M1, M2, and M3. We use them to directionally forecast the Eurocoin index: A monthly index that measures the growth rate of the euro area GDP. The data span from January 2001 to June 2018. The forecasting methodology we employ is support vector machines (SVM) from the area of machine learning. The empirical results show that: (a) The Divisia monetary aggregates outperform the simple sum ones and (b) both monetary aggregates can directionally forecast the Eurocoin index reaching the highest accuracy of 82.05% providing evidence against money neutrality even in the short term.

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