The Effect of Conspiratorial Thinking and Motivated Reasoning on Belief in Election Fraud

2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 933-946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Edelson ◽  
Alexander Alduncin ◽  
Christopher Krewson ◽  
James A. Sieja ◽  
Joseph E. Uscinski
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Voter Identification ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Election Fraud ◽  
The Individual ◽  
2012 Election ◽  
Voter Id

Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.

Missing Data in Research on Youth and Family Programs

2021 ◽  
pp. 003329412110268
Author(s):  
Jaime Ballard ◽  
Adeya Richmond ◽  
Suzanne van den Hoogenhof ◽  
Lynne Borden ◽  
Daniel Francis Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Missing Data ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Program Participation ◽  
Multilevel Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Post Test ◽  
The Individual

Background Multilevel data can be missing at the individual level or at a nested level, such as family, classroom, or program site. Increased knowledge of higher-level missing data is necessary to develop evaluation design and statistical methods to address it. Methods Participants included 9,514 individuals participating in 47 youth and family programs nationwide who completed multiple self-report measures before and after program participation. Data were marked as missing or not missing at the item, scale, and wave levels for both individuals and program sites. Results Site-level missing data represented a substantial portion of missing data, ranging from 0–46% of missing data at pre-test and 35–71% of missing data at post-test. Youth were the most likely to be missing data, although site-level data did not differ by the age of participants served. In this dataset youth had the most surveys to complete, so their missing data could be due to survey fatigue. Conclusions Much of the missing data for individuals can be explained by the site not administering those questions or scales. These results suggest a need for statistical methods that account for site-level missing data, and for research design methods to reduce the prevalence of site-level missing data or reduce its impact. Researchers can generate buy-in with sites during the community collaboration stage, assessing problematic items for revision or removal and need for ongoing site support, particularly at post-test. We recommend that researchers conducting multilevel data report the amount and mechanism of missing data at each level.

scholarly journals The Use of Genotoxicity Endpoints as Biomarkers of Low Dose Radiation Exposure in Interventional Cardiology

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha Habibi ◽  
Panagiotis K. Karyofyllis ◽  
Aggeliki Nikolakopoulou ◽  
Panagiotis Papagiannis ◽  
Pantelis Karaiskos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Biological Effects ◽  
Interventional Cardiology ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Cardiac Procedures ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Radiation Induced ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Almost All

The effect of the reportedly low ionizing radiation doses, such as those very often delivered to patients in interventional cardiology, remains ambiguous. As interventional cardiac procedures may have a significant impact on total collective effective dose, there are radiation protection concerns for patients and physicians regarding potential late health effects. Given that very low doses (<100 mSv) are expected to be delivered during these procedures, the purpose of this study was to assess the potency and suitability of current genotoxicity biomarkers to detect and quantitate biological effects essential for risk estimation in interventional cardiology. Specifically, the biomarkers γ-H2AX foci, dicentric chromosomes, and micronuclei, which underpin radiation-induced DNA damage, were studied in blood lymphocytes of 25 adult patients before and after interventional cardiac procedures. Even though the mean values of all patients as a group for all three endpoints tested show increased yields relative to baseline following medical exposure, our results demonstrate that only the γ-H2AX biomarker enables detection of statistically significant differences at the individual level (p < 0.001) for almost all patients (91%). Furthermore, 24 h after exposure, residual γ-H2AX foci were still detectable in irradiated lymphocytes. Their decline was found to vary significantly among the individuals and the repair kinetics of γ-H2AX foci was found to range from 25 to 95.6% of their maximum values obtained.

Dilemmas of Distrust: Conspiracy Beliefs, Elite Rhetoric, and Motivated Reasoning

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110345
Author(s):  
Scott Radnitz
Keyword(s):  
Relative Weight ◽  
State Level ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Political Rhetoric ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Conspiracy Beliefs ◽  
The Individual

Conspiracy theories are playing an increasingly prominent role worldwide in both political rhetoric and popular belief. Previous research has emphasized the individual-level factors behind conspiracy belief but paid less attention to the role of elite framing, while focusing mostly on domestic political contexts. This study assesses the relative weight of official conspiracy claims and motivated biases in producing conspiracy beliefs, in two countries where identities other than partisanship are salient: Georgia and Kazakhstan. I report the results of a survey experiment that depicts a possible conspiracy and varies the content of official claims and relevant contextual details. The results show that motivated reasoning stemming from state-level geopolitical identities is strongly associated with higher conspiracy belief, whereas official claims have little effect on people’s perceptions of conspiracy. Respondents who exhibit higher conspiracy ideation are more likely to perceive a conspiracy but do not weight motivated biases or official claims differently from people with lower conspiratorial predispositions. The findings indicate the importance of (geopolitical) identities in shaping conspiracy beliefs and highlight some of the constraints facing elites who seek to benefit from the use of conspiracy claims.

scholarly journals Social Capital Changes After COVID-19 Lockdown Among Youths in China: COVID-19 Impact on Lifestyle Change Survey (COINLICS)

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Yu ◽  
Miyang Luo ◽  
Meijing Liu ◽  
Junmin Zhou ◽  
Shujuan Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Lifestyle Change ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Educational Levels ◽  
Chinese Youth ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
The Individual

Introduction: Social capital, the effective functioning of social groups through networks of relationships, can affect mental health and may be affected by COVID-19. We aimed to examine the changes in social capital before and after the COVID-19 lockdown among the Chinese youth.Methods: A national convenience sample of 10,540 high school, undergraduate, and graduate students, from the COVID-19 Impact on Lifestyle Change Survey (COINLICS), reported their demographic and social capital information before and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Social capital was retrospectively measured at four levels: individual (ISC), family (FSC), community (CSC), and society (SSC). The changes of social capital were also compared across three educational levels.Results: Overall, ISC and CSC scores generally decreased after lockdown (15.1 to 14.8 and 13.4 to 13.1, respectively), while FSC and SSC scores increased significantly (12.7 to 13.0 and 7.1 to 7.2, respectively). At the individual level, most participants showed a constant perceived social capital; more of the remaining participants showed decreased than increased ISC (30.5% vs. 17.0%) and CSC scores (28.4% vs. 19.1%), while more participants showed increased than decreased FSC (21.7% vs. 9.2%) and SSC scores (10.3% vs. 3.9%). Heterogeneities in social capital changes existed across educational levels.Conclusions: Our findings would provide health professionals and policy-makers solid evidence on the changes in social capital of youths after lockdowns, and therefore help the design of future interventions to rebuild or improve their social capital after epidemics/disasters.

scholarly journals Exploring COVID-19 lockdowns as unexpected paternity leave: One shock, diverse gender ideologies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alix Sponton
Keyword(s):  
Maternity Leave ◽  
Extended Family ◽  
Post Partum ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Paid Work ◽  
Gender Ideologies ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Individual ◽  
At Home

Objective: This paper analyses how men who became fathers to a newborn during a 2020 lockdown in France reacted to spending longer time at home than intended. Background: Previous research found that fathers taking longer leave are more involved at home, but men who plan these working arrangements are more oriented towards gender equality. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, fathers with diverse gender ideologies were forced to stay home with their baby. Method: 42 longitudinal interviews were conducted with 23 fathers, before and after the birth of their child. 10 of these fathers unexpectedly stopped their paid work for the first two months post-partum because of distancing measures. This group is compared with 10 others who took at most their 14 days of paid leave before returning to paid work and 3 others who deliberately planned to take a month off.  All mothers were on maternity leave. Results: Lockdowns isolated couples from the help of extended family and fathers had to assume a caregiving position. However, staying home involved different things for different fathers. For some, it meant sharing unpaid work equally. For others, it was more about bonding with the baby, whereas intensive childcare was considered the mother’s role. Conclusion: Drawing on an integrative approach, the findings suggest that changes at the institutional level, such as lockdowns, impact fathering trajectories differently depending on gender ideologies at the individual level.

Palmetto Postmortem: Examining the Effects of the South Carolina Voter Identification Statute

2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 492-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. Hood ◽  
Scott E. Buchanan
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Population Data ◽  
General Election ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
The South ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Photo Identification ◽  
Voter Identification ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
Voter Id

In 2011, South Carolina passed a government-issued photo identification (ID) statute. We examine the effects of this law on overall turnout, as well as for minority turnout in particular. A series of difference-in-difference tests are specified using individual-level population data on registrants with and without ID, comparing the 2010 (pre-implementation) and 2014 (post-implementation) election cycles. The results of our analysis indicate that the voter ID statute did dampen overall turnout. These findings comport with recent scholarship which has found evidence that voter ID laws can lower turnout rates. The size of the effect, however, is quite diminutive. We estimate that initial implementation of the South Carolina statute decreased turnout in the 2014 general election by 0.19 percent. In addition, the evidence gathered on the question of racial effects indicates that there is no discernible racial impact from the state’s voter ID law.

What We Know about Voter-ID Laws, Registration, and Turnout

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjorie Randon Hershey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Democratic Politics ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Individual ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Voter Id

“Turning out to vote is the most common and important act citizens take in a democracy,” John Aldrich writes (1993, 246), “and, therefore, is one of the most important behaviors for scholars of democratic politics to understand.” Turnout matters at the community as well as the individual level; the larger a county's voter turnout, for instance, the more discretionary federal resources it is likely to receive per capita (Martin 2003). “The blunt truth,” according to V. O. Key (1949, 527), “is that politicians and officials are under no compulsion to pay much heed to classes and groups of citizens that do not vote.”

scholarly journals Disagreement and Deliberation: Evidence from Three Deliberative Mini-Publics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Grönlund ◽  
Kaisa Herne ◽  
Kim Strandberg ◽  
Peter Söderlund
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Experimental Manipulation ◽  
National Minority ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Third ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Citizen Deliberation

AbstractThis article is based on three experiments in citizen deliberation. We ask whether disagreement at group level as well as at individual level influence participants’ experiences of deliberation. In all three experiments, participants discussed in small groups and answered surveys before and after deliberations. The experiments were population-based with random selection. The topic of the first deliberation was nuclear power, the second dealt with immigration, and the third concerned policies for a language spoken by a national minority. The degree of group level disagreement was subject to experimental manipulation. In the first experiment, all the participants discussed in groups with mixed opinions. In the second experiment, participants were first categorized according to their baseline views, and then randomly allocated into either mixed or like-minded groups. In the third experiment, everyone discussed in like-minded groups. A trained facilitator moderated all small group discussions in the first two experiments. In the language experiment, the participants were randomly assigned into two treatments: groups with both moderation and deliberative norms, and ‘placebo’ groups. Our dependent variables consist of participants’ self-reported experiences of being heard in the discussion, and their feelings of mutual respect. The results show that all participants—regardless of group level disagreement—tend to be satisfied with deliberation. The only exception is the first experiment, where disagreement decreased process satisfaction slightly. At the individual level, participants’ deviation from the group mean had almost no effect.

Reconciling Individual and Aggregate Evidence Concerning Partisan Stability: Applying Time-Series Models to Panel Survey Data

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald P. Green ◽  
David H. Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Panel Surveys ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Empirical Regularities ◽  
Integrated Time Series ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual

Party identification has been studied extensively using both individual- and aggregate-level data. This paper attempts to formulate a statistical model that can account for the range of empirical generalizations that have emerged from aggregate time series and panel surveys. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we show that only certain types of data generation processes can account for these empirical regularities. Deciding which of the remaining types best explains the data means investigating the ways in which individual-level partisanship behaves over time. Partisanship at the aggregate-level tends to be highly autocorrelated, reequilibrating slowly in the wake of each perturbation. Working downward from the analysis of aggregate data, previous researchers argued that aggregate partisanship is fractionally integrated and contended that dynamics at the individual level are therefore heterogeneous. Using data from three panel surveys, we present the first direct assessment of individual-level dynamics. We also investigate the hypothesis that these dynamics vary among individuals, a claim that motivates much recent work on fractionally integrated time series. The model that best explains the observed characteristics of party identification is one in which individuals respond in similar ways to external shocks, reequilibrate rapidly thereafter, and seldom change their equilibrium level of partisan attachment.

Congressional capacity and the abolition of legislative service organizations

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Clarke
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Service Organizations ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Legislative Bargaining ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Policy Agendas ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Legislative Effectiveness ◽  
Level Effect

AbstractI analyse the relative influence of lawmakers before and after a watershed moment in the development of faction institutions: the abolition of legislative service organizations. Blocs of lawmakers in the House of Representatives were afforded official resources to advance their policy agendas between 1979 and 1995. In the wake of the “Republican Revolution,” however, these groups were categorically dismantled. Using a difference-in-difference design, I estimate the individual-level effect of losing congressional resources on relative legislative effectiveness. The results inform our understanding of faction power, legislative bargaining and evolving congressional institutions.

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