Extra- and within-system electoral volatility

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 623-635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Mainwaring ◽  
Carlos Gervasoni ◽  
Annabella España-Najera
Keyword(s):  
Original Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Electoral Volatility ◽  
Descriptive Information ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World ◽  
And Shifts

We analyze the remarkable differences in the electoral success of new parties and compare the determinants of electoral volatility attributable to new versus established parties. We base our findings on an original data set of total volatility, extra-system volatility, and within-system volatility for 67 democratic countries across all regions of the world since 1945. The article makes three contributions. First, we show that it is important to distinguish between electoral volatility that represents vote shifts among established parties (within-system volatility) and shifts to new parties (extra-system volatility). Second, we provide descriptive information about total, within-system, and extra-system volatility for 67 countries. Third, we analyze the determinants of volatility. Our results show that the causes of within- and extra-system volatility differ markedly. In contrast to Powell and Tucker, for our broader range of countries and longer time period, there are several statistically robust positive findings.

Rotational Characteristics of the Green Solar Corona: 1947-1991

1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 139-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Rybák ◽  
V. Rušin ◽  
M. Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Solar Corona ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The World ◽  
Coronal Emission Line ◽  
Homogeneous Data

AbstractFe XIV 530.3 nm coronal emission line observations have been used for the estimation of the green solar corona rotation. A homogeneous data set, created from measurements of the world-wide coronagraphic network, has been examined with a help of correlation analysis to reveal the averaged synodic rotation period as a function of latitude and time over the epoch from 1947 to 1991.The values of the synodic rotation period obtained for this epoch for the whole range of latitudes and a latitude band ±30° are 27.52±0.12 days and 26.95±0.21 days, resp. A differential rotation of green solar corona, with local period maxima around ±60° and minimum of the rotation period at the equator, was confirmed. No clear cyclic variation of the rotation has been found for examinated epoch but some monotonic trends for some time intervals are presented.A detailed investigation of the original data and their correlation functions has shown that an existence of sufficiently reliable tracers is not evident for the whole set of examinated data. This should be taken into account in future more precise estimations of the green corona rotation period.

Beyond the Fiction of Federalism: Macroeconomic Management in Multitiered Systems

2002 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Rodden ◽  
Erik Wibbels
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Original Data ◽  
The Political ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Federal States ◽  
The World ◽  
Macroeconomic Management ◽  
Economic Experiences

Recent research on federalism is extremely divided. While some tout the benefits of “market-preserving” federalism, others point to the fragmentation and incoherence of policy in federal states. This research bridges the divide by analyzing the political andfiscalstructures that are likely to account for the highly divergent economic experiences of federal systems around die world. To test these propositions, the authors use an original data set to conduct analyses of budget balance and inflation infifteenfederationsaround the world from 1978 through 1996. The empirical research suggests that the level of fiscal decentralization, the nature of intergovernmental finance, and vertical partisan relations all influence macroeconomic outcomes. The find- ings have broad implications for the widespread move toward greater decentralization and for the theoretical literatures on federalism and macroeconomics.

scholarly journals The Role of International Factors in Electoral Volatility in Latin America: An Examination of Structural Adjustment

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110178
Author(s):  
Michelle Kuenzi ◽  
Hafthor Erlingsson ◽  
John P. Tuman
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Party System ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Electoral Volatility

Does structural adjustment increase party system instability in Latin America? We employ the Latin American Presidential and Legislative Elections (LAPALE) database ( http://www.lapaledata.com ) and our own original data set for structural adjustment to assess the effects of structural adjustment and other economic, social, and political variables on legislative volatility in 18 Latin American countries during the period of 1982 to 2016. The results of our study indicate that structural adjustment results in higher levels of within-system electoral volatility and support a broad version of economic voting theory. Extra-system electoral volatility is driven primarily by institutional and demographic factors. Our findings also highlight the importance of disaggregating electoral volatility as within-system volatility and extra-system volatility appear to be largely driven by different factors, or in different ways by the same factors.

scholarly journals Indo-Pak Comparison Of COVID-19 By ARIMA Model: A Secondary Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osama Ajaz ◽  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
Muhammad Amjad ◽  
Ayesha Siddiqa
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
World Health ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Related Case ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World

Abstract Background: Historically, the world has faced and recovered from many pandemics. The most recent global pandemic facing the entire world is Covid-19. India and Pakistan can be considered to be in the same phases of development and health spending relative to their GDP and also have similar climatic conditions. The main aim of the study is to forecast cumulative cases and deaths in Pakistan and India, which will be helpful for policy makers to plan accordingly.Methods: The data set was obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) website (https://covid19.who.int). The time period we have considered since the first corona related case and death were observed in both countries. The dataset for Pakistan covered the time period from 28th February 2020 to 28th February 2021 and for India 30th January to 28th February 2021. The Auto-Regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied for forecasting using R-package.Results: Our results forecasted that cumulative COVID-19 cases at the end of June 2021, at the end of September 2021 and at the end of December 2021 will be 13065792, 14704450, and 16481122 respectively in India while for Pakistan, we forecasted that at the end of June 2021, at the end of September 2021 and at the end of December 2021 will be 746963.5 873557.3and 999766.5 respectively. Cumulative deaths were also forecasted for Pakistan and India. We predicted cumulative deaths as at the end of June 2021 at the end of June 2021, at the end of September 2021 and at the end of December 2021 will be 170586.5, 181153.4 and 192017.5 respectively in India while for Pakistan, we forecasted that cumulative deaths at the end of June 2021, at the end of September 2021 and at the end of December 2021 will be 17890.98, 21825.26 and 25849.4 respectively.Conclusion: Corona related cumulative cases and deaths are on the rise in both countries. The pandemic situation in India is worse than in Pakistan nevertheless both countries are at high risk. There is a sudden increasing pattern in the number of corona related cases in both countries.

Diameter Prediction for Correcting Continuous Forest Inventory Data

1991 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
Douglas Eberhardt ◽  
Edwin J. Green
Keyword(s):  
Basal Area ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Inventory Data ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Continuous Forest ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Regular Time

Abstract Permanent plot data are used in many studies. Trees are measured for diameter, height, and other characteristics at regular time intervals. Occasionally, errors in the diameter measurements result in a larger diameter reported at the time of the first measurement rather than the second, thus making some of the data apparently unusable. Currently there are at least two basic methods in use to compensate and estimate the growth on trees exhibiting illogical consecutive diameters. This study examines these two techniques in addition to a few others, and evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of each method. A 5% random sample was drawn from a data set void of obviously incorrect diameter measurements. For each tree in the sample, one of the two diameter measurements was assumed to be incorrect and was replaced by a predicted estimate from one of the candidate methods. The sample was then put back into the original data set and the estimated basal area plot growth was calculated for that time period. This was then compared to the true plot growth, and the resulting differences were examined. Based upon these differences, it was concluded that ordinary least squares or the introduced standard deviation technique will provide the best results if applied on a plot by plot basis. North. J. Appl. For. 8(2):76-82.

scholarly journals Party crashers? Modeling genuinely new party development paths in Western Europe

2020 ◽  
pp. 135406882091135
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Emanuele ◽  
Allan Sikk
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Latent Growth ◽  
Data Set ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Party Development ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Development Paths

Western Europe has recently experienced the emergence of successful new parties, but while single parties or countries have been extensively studied, insufficient attention has been devoted to this phenomenon from a comparative and long-term perspective. By relying on an original data set covering 20 countries and 344 parliamentary elections, this article presents the first analysis of West European ‘genuinely new parties’ (GNPs) across time, countries and party families. We hypothesize that the parties differ not only in terms of their short- and long-term success but have a range of distinct development paths. Through a latent growth model, we provide a classification of GNPs in terms of their breakthrough and initial performance. According to the specific trajectory followed by new parties in the first five elections they contest, the model suggests five different classes of new parties in Western Europe: ‘explosive’, ‘meteoric’, ‘contender’, ‘flat’ and ‘flop’. The article discusses the implications of these findings also regarding the ability of the model to produce estimates and predictions about the future electoral performances of GNPs.

Choosing to Target: What Types of Countries Get Different Types of World Bank Projects

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 422-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Winters
Keyword(s):  
International Development ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Aid Programs

Well-governed countries are more likely to make use of foreign aid for the purposes of economic development and poverty alleviation. Therefore, if aid agencies are providing funds for the sake of development, these countries should receive more aid and categorically different types of aid as compared with poorly governed countries. In poorly governed countries aid should be given in forms that allow for less discretion. Using an original data set of all World Bank projects from 1996 to 2002, the author distinguishes programmatic projects from investment projects and national from subnational investment projects. If the World Bank allows more discretion in well-governed countries, then it will choose to provide programmatic and national aid for these recipients. The author presents evidence that the World Bank provides a larger proportion of national investment lending in better-governed countries. With regard to programmatic lending, he finds mixed evidence. Among counties eligible for International Development Association (IDA) aid, good governance surprisingly is associated with a lower proportion of programmatic aid, whereas for International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) borrowers, good governance is associated with a higher proportion. The author subjects these results to a number of robustness checks. Although he confirms the existing result in the literature that the World Bank provides larger overall amounts of aid to better-governed countries, his examination of the disaggregated data leads to questioning whether both lending wings of the World Bank are designing aid programs in the most prodevelopment way possible.

Does the Iron Curtain Still Exist? The Convergence in Electoral Volatility between Eastern and Western Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 308-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Emanuele ◽  
Alessandro Chiaramonte ◽  
Sorina Soare
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Electoral Volatility ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Eastern And Western Europe ◽  
Do So

AbstractThe literature on party system change and electoral volatility in post-communist Europe tends to make a clear-cut distinction between Central and Eastern European (CEE) party systems and Western European (WE) ones. The former are unstable and unpredictable and electoral volatility is driven by the continuous emergence of new political parties. Conversely, electoral stability is the rule in the latter, and volatility is associated with electoral shifts among established parties. This conventional wisdom suffers from three potential sources of bias: case selection, time coverage and method. By correcting these biases, this article investigates whether the traditional division between CEE and WE party systems has been levelled as regards volatility. To do so, it presents evidence based on an original data set of electoral volatility and its internal components covering 31 WE and CEE party systems since 1990. It finds that a process of asymmetric convergence in the levels of electoral volatility is taking place between the two regions, with Western Europe approaching Central and Eastern Europe with increasing electoral instability.

Electing the Senate

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendy J. Schiller ◽  
Charles Stewart III
Keyword(s):  
Original Data ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Seventeenth Amendment ◽  
The People ◽  
Election Process

From 1789 to 1913, U.S. senators were not directly elected by the people—instead the Constitution mandated that they be chosen by state legislators. This radically changed in 1913, when the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution was ratified, giving the public a direct vote. This book investigates the electoral connections among constituents, state legislators, political parties, and U.S. senators during the age of indirect elections. The book finds that even though parties controlled the partisan affiliation of the winning candidate for Senate, they had much less control over the universe of candidates who competed for votes in Senate elections and the parties did not always succeed in resolving internal conflict among their rank and file. Party politics, money, and personal ambition dominated the election process, in a system originally designed to insulate the Senate from public pressure. The book uses an original data set of all the roll call votes cast by state legislators for U.S. senators from 1871 to 1913 and all state legislators who served during this time. Newspaper and biographical accounts uncover vivid stories of the political maneuvering, corruption, and partisanship—played out by elite political actors, from elected officials, to party machine bosses, to wealthy business owners—that dominated the indirect Senate elections process. The book raises important questions about the effectiveness of Constitutional reforms, such as the Seventeenth Amendment, that promised to produce a more responsive and accountable government.

DAYA SAING EKSPOR KARET ALAM TIGA NEGARA ITRC (INDONESIA, THAILAND, MALAYSIA) DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL PERIODE 1994-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-87
Author(s):  
Shinta Dwi Ardanari ◽  
Rynalto Mukiwihando
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
International Market ◽  
World Market ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Export Share ◽  
Intense Competition ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World

ABSTRACTShare of Indonesia's export value of natural rubber in the international market is almost always below Thailand, which is one of the competiting countries. The others countries began to become a threat to Indonesia because their exports share of natural rubber showed an increasing. This indicates that there is intense competition in the international market. As a country with the largest plantation area in the world, Indonesia should be superior. But this can be an opportunity to be able to compete in the world market so it is important to be managed more deeply so that it can create competitive advantages that can increase competitiveness. This study aims to determine the position of the competitiveness of natural rubber exports for the three countries of ITRC in the international market. The analytical method used is dynamic RCA. The results showed that all products of natural rubber coded HS 400110, 400121, 400122, 400129 and 400130 were experiencing a decline in growth in the export share of the three countries of ITRC : Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, but the market demand conditions for these products were declining in that time period.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document