The effects of electoral anticipation on portfolio allocation

2020 ◽  
pp. 135406882091454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harunobu Saijo
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Behavior ◽  
Coalition Formation ◽  
Portfolio Allocation ◽  
Compelling Evidence ◽  
Issue Salience ◽  
Bargaining Models ◽  
Ideal Points ◽  
The Way

Whereas much of the existing literature on coalition formation has focused on the disparity between Gamsonian payoffs and the outcomes of bargaining models, dangers of ministerial drift, party ideal points, issue salience/emphasis, and negotiation complexity, very little has been said on the role of the way public opinion affects political behavior via expectation of future electoral returns. Following the logic of “issue yield,” this article argues that politicians allocate ministerial portfolios according to the distribution of public opinion in the hopes of obtaining better returns in subsequent elections and find compelling evidence linking public opinion with portfolio allocation.

scholarly journals Negativity and Political Behavior: A Theoretical Framework for the Analysis of Negative Voting in Contemporary Democracies

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110001
Author(s):  
Diego Garzia ◽  
Frederico Ferreira da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Behavior ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Affective Component ◽  
Parliamentary Systems ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Rational Component

Recent developments in Western societies have motivated a growing consideration of the role of negativity in public opinion and political behavior research. In this article, we review the scant (and largely disconnected) scientific literature on negativity and political behavior, merging contributions from social psychology, public opinion, and electoral research, with a view on developing an integrated theoretical framework for the study of negative voting in contemporary democracies. We highlight that the tendency toward negative voting is driven by three partly overlapping components, namely, (1) an instrumental–rational component characterized by retrospective performance evaluations and rationalization mechanisms, (2) an ideological component grounded on long-lasting political identities, and (3) an affective component, motivated by (negative) attitudes toward parties and candidates. By blueprinting the systematic relationships between negative voting and each of these components in turn, and suggesting multiple research paths, this article aims to stimulate future studies on negative voting in multi-party parliamentary systems to motivate a better understanding of the implications of negativity in voting behavior in contemporary democracies.

One size fits all? The role of size in coalition formation and portfolio allocation after the local elections of 2006 in the Flemish region in Belgium

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 901-931
Author(s):  
Ellen Olislagers ◽  
Kristof Steyvers
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Coalition Formation ◽  
Formation Process ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Portfolio Allocation ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Coalition Formation Process

This paper focuses on the role of size in coalition formation in the Flemish region in Belgium after the local elections of 2006. A quantitative analysis already showed that size matters at the local level. In this paper, portfolio allocation is considered as an important part of coalition formation. This paper illustrates that combining research methods can enhance our knowledge about the role of size in the coalition formation process. The results demonstrate that parties consider a minimal winning and minimum parties coalition as a starting point for the negotiations and other factors influence the final coalition outcome. In portfolio allocation proportionality rules, but parties also prefer competences related to their policy profile. Intra-party and personal characteristics play an important role in selecting the executive mandates.

Ayman al-Zawahiri and the rise of ISIL

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Holbrook
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Public Rhetoric ◽  
State Organization ◽  
Key Events ◽  
The Way

This chapter analyses statements released by Ayman al-Zawahiri in the context of MENA uprisings and the rise of the Islamic State organization. The chapter traces Zawahiri’s aggregate narrative during this period, discussing how the Al-Qaeda leader framed these key events and how these framing efforts evolved. This discussion highlights issues regarding legitimate leadership of jihadist vanguards, the role of public opinion in that equation and the way in which al-Zawahiri has sought to exploit and address those challenges in his efforts to retain momentum and relevancy within a complex jihadi universe. The chapter concludes by considering the particulars of al-Zawahiri’s most recent discursive emphases in light of his public rhetoric to date in order to highlight the evolution and, at times, contradictions of this narrative.

scholarly journals Understanding the Role of Racism in Contemporary US Public Opinion

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-169
Author(s):  
Katherine Cramer
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Affairs ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Political Inequality ◽  
Public Discussion ◽  
Racial Resentment ◽  
Contemporary Context ◽  
The Way

In the contemporary context, it is inescapable that racism is a factor in US public opinion. When scholars take stock of the way we typically measure and conceptualize racism, we find reason to reconceptualize the racial resentment scale as a measure of perceptions of the reasons for political inequality. We also see reason to move beyond thinking of racism as an attitude, toward conceptualizing it as a perspective. In addition, we see reason to pay closer attention to the role of elites in creating and perpetuating a role for racism in the way people think about public affairs. The study of racism is evolving in parallel with the broader public discussion: toward a recognition of the complex and fundamental ways it is woven into US culture and political life.

scholarly journals power of silence in marriage

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elia Shabani Mligo
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Spiral Of Silence ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Church ◽  
Form Of Expression ◽  
The Way

Silence speaks louder than verbal speech, penetrating deeper into the hearts of those to whom it is directed. Marriage, as any other institution, is often surrounded by moments of silence between couples, which leads to thoughtful suffering. Contextualizing the theory of Spiral of Silence of Noelle-Neumann in the Bena context in Tanzania, this article provides a reading of the text in the Gospel according to John to discern the way in which it enlightens the real life situations of the church in regard to the role of silence. The article argues that the silence of Jesus in the text, as was his silence in the passion narratives, is a form of expression of his urgency and the communication of his power against the public opinion. In this case, the reading intents to look at the implication of silence within the prism of gender with specific reference to emotional abuses exerted by the church to marginalized people.

scholarly journals The Defeat of Populism in Greece

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
EMMANOUIL MAVROZACHARAKIS
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Behavior ◽  
Social Problems ◽  
The Political ◽  
Financial Costs ◽  
Social Alliance ◽  
New Type ◽  
The Way ◽  
The Imf

The recent elections in Greece reflects an enormous change in the political behavior of the electorate. The citizens have not chosen a simple switch on the power, but contributed with their votes to a strategic defeat of populism and in same time they paved the way for the search of a new type of leadership, which is close to realism in handling with social problems that can't be implemented with calculated financial costs. The vote of 7 th Juli is a vote against the over-promising and under-delivery experienced under Syriza’s rule. The voting for conservative ND is not an ideological choice. It's a choice that runs counter to the logic of falsely or hypocritical negotiating austerity measures opposed to Greece buy his Lenders (memorandum) and the consequent tax-tornado as a result of negotiating failure with the partners in the EEC and the IMF. The positive vote for ND also reflects the contradiction with the misguided manipulations of public opinion regarding the Skopje-Question and finally the strategy of micro concessions and micro- allowances as a means of concluding a “political-social alliance” with an undefined hostile establishment.

Political disagreement and vote volatility: the role of familism across different European countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-317
Author(s):  
Moreno Mancosu ◽  
David N. Hopmann
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Political Behavior ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Attitudes And Behaviors ◽  
The Uk

AbstractInterpersonal influence shapes political behavior and attitudes. So far, however, little efforts have been devoted to testing this mechanism comparatively in Europe. This paper aims at explaining differences in influence patterns in three European countries (Italy, Germany, and the UK). Based on works in demography, we argue that in Mediterranean cultures (characterized by high degrees of familism), people are more prone to be affected by attitudes and behaviors of their relatives with respect to other strong ties (e.g., spouses), while in continental, northern Europe, and the UK, this effect is less important. We test this argument using longitudinal data. Consistent with expectations, results show that the influence of relatives in familistic contexts is stronger than in non-familistic ones. At the same time, the spouse effect (namely, the effect of an intimate, non-relative discussant) is particularly strong in non-familistic contexts (and vice versa). In sum, we demonstrate that public opinion studies can be strengthened by theories developed in other social sciences, such as demography.

MANUSCRIPT EVIDENCE FOR ALPHABET-SWITCHING IN THE WORKS OF CICERO: COMMON NOUNS AND ADJECTIVES

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 498-516
Author(s):  
Neil O'Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
Code Switching ◽  
Consistent Pattern ◽  
Current Interest ◽  
Reliable Transmission ◽  
Accurate Record ◽  
The Way

Of the hundreds of Greek common nouns and adjectives preserved in our MSS of Cicero, about three dozen are found written in the Latin alphabet as well as in the Greek. So we find, alongside συμπάθεια, also sympathia, and ἱστορικός as well as historicus. This sort of variation has been termed alphabet-switching; it has received little attention in connection with Cicero, even though it is relevant to subjects of current interest such as his bilingualism and the role of code-switching and loanwords in his works. Rather than addressing these issues directly, this discussion sets out information about the way in which the words are written in our surviving MSS of Cicero and takes further some recent work on the presentation of Greek words in Latin texts. It argues that, for the most part, coherent patterns and explanations can be found in the alphabetic choices exhibited by them, or at least by the earliest of them when there is conflict in the paradosis, and that this coherence is evidence for a generally reliable transmission of Cicero's original choices. While a lack of coherence might indicate unreliable transmission, or even an indifference on Cicero's part, a consistent pattern can only really be explained as an accurate record of coherent alphabet choice made by Cicero when writing Greek words.

The adaptation of design thinking in auditing

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda MEIJER-WASSENAAR ◽  
Diny VAN EST
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Public Organizations ◽  
Design Framework ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Way

How can a supreme audit institution (SAI) use design thinking in auditing? SAIs audit the way taxpayers’ money is collected and spent. Adding design thinking to their activities is not to be taken lightly. SAIs independently check whether public organizations have done the right things in the right way, but the organizations might not be willing to act upon a SAI’s recommendations. Can you imagine the role of design in audits? In this paper we share our experiences of some design approaches in the work of one SAI: the Netherlands Court of Audit (NCA). Design thinking needs to be adapted (Dorst, 2015a) before it can be used by SAIs such as the NCA in order to reflect their independent, autonomous status. To dive deeper into design thinking, Buchanan’s design framework (2015) and different ways of reasoning (Dorst, 2015b) are used to explore how design thinking can be adapted for audits.

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