Prescribing for the tourism-induced Dutch disease: A DSGE analysis of subsidy policies

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 942-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongru Zhang ◽  
Yang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Production Subsidies

Tourism-induced Dutch disease can be particularly detrimental to small open economies due to deindustrialization and potential long-term welfare loss. This study adopts an innovative macroeconomic modelling tool, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelling, to investigate the effects of external inbound tourism booms on the national economic account of a small open economy. The results confirm the existence of Dutch disease, but tourism booms also bring welfare gains to the destination country. We further model the effects of two strategies to mitigate the Dutch disease by assuming that the government can tax the tourism sector and subsidize the manufacturing sector in two ways: production subsidies and investment subsidies. The results show that the effectiveness of production subsidies is very modest, while investment subsidies can almost completely overturn the Dutch disease. In terms of welfare, investment subsidies lower welfare gains in the very short term, but the positive effects persist over the longer term, which is different from the production subsidy case. Last, practical implications are provided.

scholarly journals Analysis of External Debt Sustainability in Mongolia: An Estimated DSGE Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8545
Author(s):  
Gunbileg Ganbayar
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Productivity Shock ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Household Preference

In this study, we assess the effects of the structural shocks on the external debt sustainability in Mongolia, based on an estimated small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the traded, the non-traded, and the mining sectors. The impulse response results show that the traded sector’s productivity shock, the commodity price shock, the mining output shock, and the foreign interest-rate shock have a decreasing effect on external debt accumulation in Mongolia, whereas the non-traded sector’s productivity shock, the household preference shock, and the government spending shock have an increasing effect on the same. Furthermore, we assess Mongolia’s external debt sustainability under the COVID−19 pandemic shock. Under our assumed pandemic scenario, Mongolia’s external debt will increase by 30% from its steady state over the next 10–28 quarters. Our recommended solution in this study is to develop the traded sector, instead of the mining sector, to maintain sustainability of the external debt and to decrease vulnerability of the economy.

scholarly journals The Role of Fiscal Policy in The Inflation: VAR Analysis of Kazakhstan’s Economy, 2005-2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhandos Ybrayev
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Rate Vector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Domestic Inflation

Abstract The paper analyzes the patterns of dynamic effects of fiscal policy to domestic inflation in the context of a small open economy. Using 4-variable (government spending, fiscal deficit, money stock (M2), and domestic inflation rate) vector autoregression model estimated with quarterly data for Kazakhstan’s economy in the period of 2005Q1-2020Q1. We distinguish between government expenditure on consumption and investment. As a result, we find that a fiscal policy shock have certain positive effects on the inflation rate. In particular, social protection spending adds 1% to the inflation rate in the following four quarters, while the government capital purchases do not produce sizable effect on inflation dynamics even in the longer term horizons. Overall, for the fiscal policy to become inflation-neutral, we suggest several policy recommendations.

Financial openness, bank capital flows, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Hao Jin ◽  
Chen Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This paper quantitatively examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of macroprudential policies in open economies. We develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where banks choose their funding sources (domestic vs. foreign deposits) and are subject to financial constraints. Our model predicts that banks reduce leverage in response to a macroprudential policy tightening, but increasingly rely on foreign funding. This endogenous shifts of funding composition significantly undermine the stabilizing effect and welfare gains of macroprudential policies. Our results also suggest macroprudential policies are less effective in financially more open economies, and optimal policy should take capital flows into consideration. Finally, we find empirical support for the model predictions in a group of developing and emerging economies.

scholarly journals Agriculture, Manufacturing and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atayi Abraham Vincent ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

This research work address the positive effect of Agriculture on the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. The study made used of Ordinary Least Square Method estimation techniques. The findings showed that Agricultural output, government spending on agriculture, and real gross domestic product all have positive effects on the manufacturing sector. The effects is RGDP 66percent, AGRQ by 63%, and GOEXA by 96 percent. The study recommends among other things that government should allocate more resources to the Nigerian agricultural sector and ensure that the funds are judiciously use and that the government should also seek to strengthen its incentives for the manufacturing sector in order to promote increased industrial production and growth.

scholarly journals The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuong V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachA SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation.FindingsThis paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam.Originality/valueThis research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

Liquidity constraints, international trade, and optimal monetary policy

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai-Ming Ho
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Friedman Rule ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
International Borrowing ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe availability of liquidity matters for an economy’s production and trade as firms need working capital to finance their operations. This paper studies the interaction between trade and capital flows operating through the liquidity allocations in the financial markets using a small-open-economy, overlapping-generations model. Working capital requirements distort the intratemporal consumption allocations. International capital inflows help easing liquidity in the domestic credit market, facilitating trade and improving the intratemporal allocation, while distorting the intertemporal allocation of the economy. We show how the government can use the Friedman rule and differentiated consumption taxes to address the tradeoff between the intratemporal and intertemporal distortions and achieve the second best optimum. Imposing a higher tax rate on imports can reduce the international borrowing to imports ratio and enhance the efficiency in using capital inflows to facilitate trade flows.

scholarly journals TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN INDIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1721-1756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shesadri Banerjee ◽  
Parantap Basu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

In this paper, we develop a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the relative importance of two key technology shocks, Hicks neutral total factor productivity (TFP) shock and investment specific technology (IST) shock for an emerging market economy like India. In addition to these two shocks, our model includes three demand side shocks such as fiscal spending, home interest rate, and foreign interest rate. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimate our DSGE model with Indian annual data for key macroeconomic variables over the period of 1971–2010, and for subsamples of pre-liberalization (1971–1990) and post-liberalization (1991–2010) periods. Our study reveals three main results. First, output correlates positively with TFP, but negatively with IST. Second, TFP and IST shocks are the first and the second most important contributors to aggregate fluctuations in India. In contrast, the demand side disturbances play a limited role. Third, although TFP plays a major role in determining aggregate fluctuations, its importance vis-à-vis IST has declined during the post liberalization era. We find that structural shifts of nominal friction and relative home bias for consumption to investment in the post-liberalization period can account for the rising importance of the IST shocks in India.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Temporary and Permanent Public Health Policies on HRQOL in a Small Open Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 9866
Author(s):  
Yasuhiro Nakamoto ◽  
Taketo Kawagishi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Related Quality ◽  
Health Related ◽  
The Government

Considering that people can invest in their health-related quality of life (HRQOL), we investigate the effects of public health policies (i.e., a health investment subsidy policy and the direct distribution of health-related goods) on HRQOL in a small open economy. We find that when the government makes public investment in HRQOL temporarily, HRQOL deteriorates or does not improve at least. On the contrary, when public investment is enforced permanently, it improves in the long run.

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