Estimating future smoking in Danish youth – effects of three prevention strategies

2020 ◽  
pp. 140349482094267
Author(s):  
Caroline Klint Johannesen ◽  
Susan Andersen ◽  
Lotus Sofie Bast
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
School Based ◽  
Youth And Young Adults ◽  
Free Generation ◽  
Tiered Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Old Females

Aims: Preventing smoking and aiding cessation among youth and young adults carries the possibility of reducing future smoking prevalence significantly. This paper estimates the impact on future smoking prevalence of 25 year olds by increasing tobacco prices, securing indoor smoke-free homes and implementing school-based multi-tiered interventions. Methods: Utilizing a multi-state Markov model, a status quo projection of the smoking prevalence from years 2017 to 2030 were compared with projections of the smoking prevalence in 2030 considering the impact of the three prevention strategies. Results: In a status quo projection, 27.0% of Danish 25-year-old females are expected to be smokers in 2030, while 13.2% would be smokers in 2030 were all three prevention strategies in effect from 2019. By itself, increasing tobacco prices by 50% reduced the prevalence of smokers among 25-year-old females to 14.8% in 2030, a relative reduction of 47.5%. For 25-year-old males in 2030 the reductions were similar, with a prevalence of 16.6% when all three prevention strategies were in effect, a relative reduction of 51.5%. Conclusions: Implementing increasing tobacco prices, indoor smoke-free homes and school-based multi-tiered interventions in Denmark is likely to significantly decrease youth smoking prevalence in the future. However, these three strategies will not produce a smoke-free generation without other initiatives.

scholarly journals Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Sanna ◽  
Wayne Gao ◽  
Ya-Wen Chiu ◽  
Hung-Yi Chiou ◽  
Yi-Hua Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
The Status ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Per Capita Consumption

IntroductionAdult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture.MethodsWe used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality.ResultsThe model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the ‘status quo’ scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060.ConclusionsTobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Biannual School-Based and Community-Wide Treatment on Urogenital Schistosomiasis in Niger

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Elizabeth Phillips ◽  
Zilahatou Tohon ◽  
Neerav A. Dhanani ◽  
Boubacar Sofo ◽  
Issa Gnandou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Randomised Trial ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Cluster Randomised Trial ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Preventive Chemotherapy ◽  
Urogenital Schistosomiasis ◽  
Schistosomiasis Control ◽  
School Based ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) coordinated a five-year study implemented in several countries, including Niger, to provide an evidence-base for programmatic decisions regarding cost-effective approaches to preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis control. Methods This was a cluster-randomised trial investigating six possible combinations of annual or biannual community-wide treatment (CWT), school-based treatment (SBT), and holidays from mass treatment over four years. The most intense arm involved two years of annual CWT followed by two years of biannual CWT, while the least intensive arm involved one year of annual SBT followed by a year without treatment and two more years of annual SBT. The primary outcome of interest was prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium among 100 children aged 9-to-12-years sampled each year. In addition, 100 children aged 5-to-8 years in their first year of school and 50 adults (aged 20-to-55 years) were tested in the first and final fifth year of the study. Results In total, data was collected from 167,500 individuals across 225 villages in nine districts within the Niger River valley, Western Niger. Overall, prevalence of S. haematobium decreased from baseline to Year 5 across all study arms. The relative reduction of prevalence was greater in biannual compared with annual treatment across all arms, however, the only significant difference was seen in areas with a high starting prevalence. Although adults were not targeted for treatment in SBT arms, a statistically significant decrease in prevalence among adults was seen in moderate prevalence areas receiving biannual (10.7% to 4.8%) SBT (p<0.001). Adults tested in the annual SBT group also showed a decrease in prevalence between Year 1 and Year 5 (12.2% to 11.0%), but this difference was not significant.Conclusions These findings are an important consideration for schistosomiasis control programs that are considering elimination and support the idea that scaling up the frequency of treatment rounds, particularly in areas of low prevalence, will not eliminate schistosomiasis. Interestingly, the finding that prevalence decreased among adults in SBT arms suggests that transmission in the community can be reduced, even where only school children are being treated, which could have logistical and cost-saving implications for the national control programmes.

scholarly journals Impact of school-based malaria screening and treatment on P. falciparum infection and anemia prevalence in two transmission settings in Malawi

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren M Cohee ◽  
Ingrid Peterson ◽  
Jenna E Coalson ◽  
Clarissa Valim ◽  
Moses Chilombe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Schools ◽  
Intermittent Preventive Treatment ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
Attractive Alternative ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
High Transmission ◽  
School Based ◽  
The Impact

Background: In areas highly endemic for malaria, Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) infection prevalence peaks in school-age children, adversely affecting their health and education. School-based intermittent preventive treatment reduces this burden, however concerns about cost and widespread use of antimalarial drugs have limited enthusiasm for this approach. School-based screening-and-treatment is an attractive alternative. We conducted a school-based cohort study to evaluate the impact of screening-and-treatment on the prevalence of Pf infection and anemia in two different transmission settings. Methods: We screened 704 students in four Malawian primary schools for Pf infection using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Those testing positive were treated with artemether-lumefantrine. Outcomes were Pf infections detected by microscopy or PCR and anemia after six weeks. Results: Prevalence of infection by RDT at screening was 37% (range among schools 9-64%). We detected a significant reduction after six weeks in infections by microscopy (adjusted relative reduction (aRR) 47.1%, p<0.0001) and PCR (aRR 23.1%, p<0.0001), but no reduction in anemia. In low, seasonal prevalence areas, sub-patent infections at screening led to persistent infection, but not disease, during follow-up. In high transmission settings, new infections frequently occurred within six weeks after treatment. Conclusions: School-based screening-and-treatment reduced Pf infection but not anemia. This approach could be enhanced in low transmission settings by using more sensitive screening tests and in high transmission settings by repeating the intervention or using longer acting drugs.

scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of biannual school-based and community-wide treatment on urogenital schistosomiasis in Niger

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna E. Phillips ◽  
Zilahatou Tohon ◽  
Neerav A. Dhanani ◽  
Boubacar Sofo ◽  
Issa Gnandou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Randomised Trial ◽  
Cluster Randomised Trial ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Preventive Chemotherapy ◽  
Urogenital Schistosomiasis ◽  
Schistosomiasis Control ◽  
School Based ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) coordinated a five-year study implemented in several countries, including Niger, to provide an evidence-base for programmatic decisions regarding cost-effective approaches to preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis control. Methods This was a cluster-randomised trial investigating six possible combinations of annual or biannual community-wide treatment (CWT), school-based treatment (SBT), and holidays from mass treatment over four years. The most intense arm involved two years of annual CWT followed by 2 years of biannual CWT, while the least intensive arm involved one year of annual SBT followed by a year without treatment and two more years of annual SBT. The primary outcome of interest was prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma haematobium among 100 children aged 9–12 years sampled each year. In addition, 100 children aged 5–8 years in their first year of school and 50 adults (aged 20–55 years) were tested in the first and final fifth year of the study. Results In total, data were collected from 167,500 individuals across 225 villages in nine districts within the Niger River valley, Western Niger. Overall, the prevalence of S. haematobium decreased from baseline to Year 5 across all study arms. The relative reduction of prevalence was greater in biannual compared with annual treatment across all arms; however, the only significant difference was seen in areas with a high starting prevalence. Although adults were not targeted for treatment in SBT arms, a statistically significant decrease in prevalence among adults was seen in moderate prevalence areas receiving biannual (10.7% to 4.8%) SBT (P < 0.001). Adults tested in the annual SBT group also showed a decrease in prevalence between Year 1 and Year 5 (12.2% to 11.0%), but this difference was not significant. Conclusions These findings are an important consideration for schistosomiasis control programmes that are considering elimination and support the idea that scaling up the frequency of treatment rounds, particularly in areas of low prevalence, will not eliminate schistosomiasis. Interestingly, the finding that prevalence decreased among adults in SBT arms suggests that transmission in the community can be reduced, even where only school children are being treated, which could have logistical and cost-saving implications for the national control programmes.

Use of Nutrition Information and Understanding of “Percent Daily Value” on Nutrition Facts Tables: Evaluating the Impact of a National Public Education Campaign among Youth and Young Adults in Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brittany Cormier ◽  
Lana Vanderlee ◽  
David Hammond
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Correct Recall ◽  
Nutrition Information ◽  
Education Campaign ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Public Education Campaign ◽  
Youth And Young Adults ◽  
Campaign Message ◽  
Health Canada ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: In 2010, Health Canada implemented a national campaign to improve understanding of “percent daily value” (%DV) in Nutrition Facts Tables (NFTs). This study examined sources of nutrition information and knowledge of %DV information communicated in the campaign. Methods: Respondents aged 16–30 years completed the Canada Food Study in 2016 (n = 2665). Measures included sources of nutrition information, NFT use, and %DV knowledge based on the campaign message (“5% DV or less is a little; 15% DV or more is a lot”). A logistic regression examined correlates of providing “correct” responses to %DV questions related to the campaign messaging. Results: Overall, 7.2% (n = 191) respondents correctly indicated that 5% is “a little”, and 4.3% (n = 115) correctly indicated 15% DV was “a lot”. Only 4.0% (n = 107) correctly answered both. Correct recall of %DV amounts was not associated with number of information sources reported, but was greater among those who were female, were younger, and reported greater NFT understanding and serving size information use (P < 0.05 for all). Conclusions: Results show low awareness of messaging from the Nutrition Facts Education Campaign among young Canadians. Such a mass media campaign may be insufficient on its own to enhance population-level understanding of %DV.

scholarly journals Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Blaxill ◽  
Toby Rogers ◽  
Cynthia Nevison
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Total Base ◽  
Cost Categories ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe cost of ASD in the U.S. is estimated using a forecast model that for the first time accounts for the true historical increase in ASD. Model inputs include ASD prevalence, census population projections, six cost categories, ten age brackets, inflation projections, and three future prevalence scenarios. Future ASD costs increase dramatically: total base-case costs of $223 (175–271) billion/year are estimated in 2020; $589 billion/year in 2030, $1.36 trillion/year in 2040, and $5.54 (4.29–6.78) trillion/year by 2060, with substantial potential savings through ASD prevention. Rising prevalence, the shift from child to adult-dominated costs, the transfer of costs from parents onto government, and the soaring total costs raise pressing policy questions and demand an urgent focus on prevention strategies.

scholarly journals Impact of price and non-price policies on household cigarette consumption and nutrient intake in smoking-tolerant Indonesia

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. e039211
Author(s):  
Triasih Djutaharta ◽  
Nachrowi Djalal Nachrowi ◽  
Aris Ananta ◽  
Drajat Martianto
Keyword(s):  
Protein Intake ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
National Health Survey ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Household Expenditure ◽  
Food Groups ◽  
Cigarette Price ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Budget Share ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo examine the impact of cigarette price and smoking environment on allocation of household expenditure and its implication on nutrition consumption.DesignA cross-sectional study was conducted using the 2014 National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS), the 2014 Village Potential Survey (PODES) and the 2013 Basic National Health Survey (RISKESDAS). SUSENAS and PODES data were collected by the Central Bureau of Statistics. RISKESDAS was conducted by National Institute of Health Research and Development (Balitbangkes), Indonesian Ministry of Health (MOH).Setting and participantsThe sample covered all districts in Indonesia; with sample size of 285 400 households. These households are grouped into low, medium and high smoking prevalence districts.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe impact of cigarette price and smoking environment on household consumption of cigarette, share of eight food groups, as well as calorie and protein intake.Result1% increase in cigarette price will increase the cigarette budget share by 0.0737 points and reduce the budget share for eggs/milk, prepared food, staple food, nuts, fish/meat and fruit, from 0.0200 points (eggs/milk) up to 0.0033 points (fruit). Reallocation of household expenditure brings changes in food composition, resulting in declining calorie and protein intake. A 1% cigarette price increase reduces calorie and protein intake as much as 0.0885% and 0.1052%, respectively. On the other hand, existence of smoke-free areas and low smoking prevalence areas reduces the household budget for cigarettes.ConclusionA pricing policy must be accompanied by non-pricing policies to reduce cigarette budget share.

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan H. van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin C. J. Bootsma ◽  
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

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