Spatiotemporal characteristics and meteorological determinants of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi Province, China: a county-level analysis

Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the common intestinal infectious diseases worldwide and has caused huge economic and disease burdens in many countries. The average annual incidence rate of HFMD was 11.66% in Shaanxi during the time span from 2009 to 2018. There are distinct differences within Shaanxi, as it is a special region that crosses three temperature zones. Hence, in this study, a spatiotemporal analysis of Shaanxi was performed to reveal the characteristics of the distribution of HFMD and to explore the meteorological determinants of HFMD. Methods The county-level and municipal data from Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2018 were applied to research the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD and its meteorological determinants. Time series and spatial autocorrelation analyses were applied to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD. This study used spatial econometric panel models to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors based on the data of 107 counties and 10 municipalities. Results The incidence rate of HFMD displayed no variable trend throughout the whole research period. A high incidence rate of HFMD was observed from June to September, corresponding to a time when the climate is characterized by heavy rain, high temperature, and high humidity. The high-incidence areas were mainly located in the central region in Shaanxi, whereas the low-incidence spots were mainly found in Northern Shaanxi. Regarding the meteorological factors analysed in this study, in general, the incidence rate of HFMD in specific regions was positively associated with the rainfall, temperature and humidity. Conclusion These results could be applied by the government and the general public to take effective measures to prevent disease. Region-targeted policies could be enacted and implemented in the future according to specific situations in different areas and the relevant meteorological determinants. Additionally, meteorological conditions normally extend to a wide-ranging region; thus, cooperation among surrounding regions is necessary.

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Spatiotemporal Characteristics and meteorological determinants of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Shaanxi Province, China: a county-level analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-19793/v3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Li Ding ◽

Ning Zhang ◽

Bin Zhu ◽

Jinlin Liu ◽

Xue Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Shaanxi Province ◽

County Level ◽

Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽

High Incidence ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

The Government

Abstract Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the common intestinal infectious diseases worldwide and has caused huge economic and disease burdens in many countries. The average annual incidence rate of HFMD was 11.66% in Shaanxi during the time span from 2009 to 2018. There are distinct differences within Shaanxi, as it is a special region that crosses three temperature zones. Hence, in this study, a spatiotemporal analysis of Shaanxi was performed to reveal the characteristics of the distribution of HFMD and to explore the meteorological determinants of HFMD.Methods: The county-level and municipal data from Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2018 were applied to research the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD and its meteorological determinants. Time series and spatial autocorrelation analyses were applied to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD. This study used spatial econometric panel models to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors based on the data of 107 counties and 10 municipalities.Results: The incidence rate of HFMD displayed no variable trend throughout the whole research period. A high incidence rate of HFMD was observed from June to September, corresponding to a time when the climate is characterized by heavy rain, high temperature, and high humidity. The high-incidence areas were mainly located in the central region in Shaanxi, whereas the low-incidence spots were mainly found in Northern Shaanxi. Regarding the meteorological factors analysed in this study, in general, the incidence rate of HFMD in specific regions was positively associated with the rainfall, temperature and humidity.Conclusion: These results could be applied by the government and the general public to take effective measures to prevent disease. Region-targeted policies could be enacted and implemented in the future according to specific situations in different areas and the relevant meteorological determinants. Additionally, meteorological conditions normally extend to a wide-ranging region; thus, cooperation among surrounding regions is necessary.

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Spatiotemporal Characteristics and meteorological determinants of Hand, Food and Mouth Disease in Shaanxi Province, China: a county-level analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-19793/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Li Ding ◽

Ning Zhang ◽

Bin Zhu ◽

Jinlin Liu ◽

Xue Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Heavy Rain ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Shaanxi Province ◽

County Level ◽

Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽

High Incidence ◽

The Government

Abstract Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the common intestinal infectious diseases worldwide and has caused huge economic and disease burdens in many countries. The average annual incidence rate of HFMD was 11.66% in Shaanxi during the time span from 2009 to 2018. There are distinct differences within Shaanxi, as it is a special region that crosses three temperature zones. Hence, in this study, a spatiotemporal analysis of Shaanxi was performed to reveal the characteristics of the distribution of HFMD and to explore the meteorological determinants of HFMD.Methods: The county-level and municipal data from Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2018 were applied to research the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD and its meteorological determinants. Time series and spatial autocorrelation analyses were applied to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD. This study used spatial econometric panel models to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors.Results: The incidence rate of HFMD displayed no variable trend throughout the whole research period. A high incidence rate of HFMD was observed from June to September, corresponding to a time when the climate is characterized by heavy rain, high temperature, and high humidity. The high-incidence areas were mainly located in the central region in Shaanxi, whereas the low-incidence spots were mainly found in Northern Shaanxi. Regarding the meteorological factors analysed in this study, in general, the incidence rate of HFMD in specific regions was positively associated with the rainfall, temperature and humidity.Conclusion: These results could be applied by the government and the general public to take effective measures to prevent disease. Region-targeted policies could be enacted and implemented in the future according to specific situations in different areas and the relevant meteorological determinants. Additionally, meteorological conditions normally extend to a wide-ranging region; thus, cooperation among surrounding regions is necessary.

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Transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease in 97 counties of China.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-735005/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wei Zhang ◽

Jia Rui ◽

Xiaoqing Cheng ◽

Bin Deng ◽

Hesong Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Jiangsu Province ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Seasonal Characteristics ◽

High Incidence ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Low Incidence ◽

Serious Disease

Abstract Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a serious disease burden in the Asia Pacific region represented by China, and the transmission characteristics of HFMD in regions haven’t been clear. This study calculated the transmissibility of HFMD at county levels in Jiangsu Province, China, analyzed the differences of transmissibility and explored the reasons. Methods We built susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model for seasonal characteristics of HFMD, estimated effective reproduction number (Reff) by fitting the incidence of HFMD in 97 counties of Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020, compared incidence rate and transmissibility in different counties by non -parametric test, rapid cluster analysis and rank-sum ratio. Results The average daily incidence rate was between 0 and 4 per 100,000 in Jiangsu province from 2015–2020. The 97 counties could be divided into three levels: low incidence, medium incidence and high incidence, and occurred that the average daily incidence rate dropped sharply in 2016–2017, and increased sharply in 2017–2018 years. The Quartile of Reff in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020 was 1.54 (0.49, 2.50), Rugao district in Central Jiangsu and Jianhu district in Northern Jiangsu had the highest transmissibility by rank-sum ratio. Reff generally decreased in 2017 and increased in 2018 in most counties, and the median level of Reff was lowest in 2017 (P < 0.05). Conclusion Transmissibility was different in 97 counties of Jiangsu Province, and the reasons for the differences may be related to the climate, demographic characteristics, virus subtypes, vaccination and other infectious diseases.

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Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in 97 Counties of Jiangsu Province, China, 2015- 2020

10.21203/rs.3.rs-752604/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wei Zhang ◽

Jia Rui ◽

Xiaoqing Cheng ◽

Bin Deng ◽

Hesong Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Jiangsu Province ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Seasonal Characteristics ◽

High Incidence ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Low Incidence ◽

Serious Disease

Abstract Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a serious disease burden in the Asia Pacific region represented by China, and the transmission characteristics of HFMD in regions haven’t been clear. This study calculated the transmissibility of HFMD at county levels in Jiangsu Province, China, analyzed the differences of transmissibility and explored the reasons.Methods: We built susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model for seasonal characteristics of HFMD, estimated effective reproduction number (Reff) by fitting the incidence of HFMD in 97 counties of Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020, compared incidence rate and transmissibility in different counties by non -parametric test, rapid cluster analysis and rank-sum ratio.Results: The average daily incidence rate was between 0 and 4 per 100,000 in Jiangsu province from 2015-2020. The 97 counties could be divided into three levels: low incidence, medium incidence and high incidence, and occurred that the average daily incidence rate dropped sharply in 2016-2017, and increased sharply in 2017-2018 years. The Quartile of Reff in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020 was 1.54 (0.49, 2.50), Rugao district in Central Jiangsu and Jianhu district in Northern Jiangsu had the highest transmissibility by rank-sum ratio. Reff generally decreased in 2017 and increased in 2018 in most counties, and the median level of Reff was lowest in 2017 (P<0.05).Conclusion: Transmissibility was different in 97 counties of Jiangsu Province, and the reasons for the differences may be related to the climate, demographic characteristics, virus subtypes, vaccination and other infectious diseases.

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Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-81100-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Cong Xie ◽

Haoyu Wen ◽

Wenwen Yang ◽

Jing Cai ◽

Peng Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Moving Average ◽

Arima Model ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Spring Festival ◽

High Incidence ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Accurate Forecast ◽

Changing Patterns ◽

Two Peaks

AbstractHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD incidence was decomposed into trends, yearly, weekly seasonality and holiday effect. The Prophet model fitted better than the ARIMA model in daily reported incidence of HFMD. The HFMD incidence forecast by the Prophet model showed that two peaks occurred in 2019, with the higher peak in May and the lower peak in December. Periodically changing patterns of HFMD incidence were observed after decomposing the time-series into its major components. In specific, multi-year variability of HFMD incidence was found, and the slow-down increasing point of HFMD incidence was identified. Relatively high HFMD incidences appeared in May and on Mondays. The effect of Spring Festival on HFMD incidence was much stronger than that of other holidays. This study showed the potential of the Prophet model to detect seasonality in HFMD incidence. Our next goal is to incorporate climate variables into the Prophet model to produce an accurate forecast of HFMD incidence.

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Meteorological factors affect the hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemic in Qingdao, China, 2007–2014

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268816000601 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 144 (11) ◽

pp. 2354-2362 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

F. C. JIANG ◽

F. YANG ◽

L. CHEN ◽

J. JIA ◽

Y. L. HAN ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Meteorological Factors ◽

Enterovirus 71 ◽

Rank Correlation ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Late Summer ◽

Atmospheric Temperature ◽

Early Spring ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Spearman Rank Correlation Analysis

SUMMARYHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused public health concerns worldwide. We aimed to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on the HFMD epidemic in Qingdao, a port city in China. A total of 78641 cases were reported in Qingdao between January 2007 and December 2014. Of those, 71084 (90·39%) occurred in children aged 0–5 years, with an incidence of 1691·2/100000. The incidence increased from early spring, peaked between spring and summer, and decreased in late summer. Aetiological agents in all severe cases and selected mild cases were characterized by examining throat swabs. Except for enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16), other EVs caused >50% of the HFMD cases between 2011 and 2014. EV71 was more frequent in the off-peak months than in the peak months and prone to causing more severe cases compared to CA16 (χ2 = 46·3, P < 0·001). CA10 caused more severe HFMD than did CA6 (χ2 = 20·49, P < 0·001) and all non-CA10 EVs (χ2 = 41·01, P < 0·001). Community-derived HFMD cases accounted for 65·11%. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that HFMD incidence in children aged 0–5 years was positively correlated with atmospheric temperature (rs = 0·77, P < 0·001), relative humidity (rs = 0·507, P < 0·001), and precipitation (rs = 0·328, P < 0·001). Climate changes and CA10 surveillance in communities should be integrated into the current prophylactic programme.

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Meteorological factors and its association with hand, foot and mouth disease in Southeast and East Asia areas: a meta-analysis

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268818003035 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 147 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Chunxiao Duan ◽

Xuefeng Zhang ◽

Hui Jin ◽

Xiaoqing Cheng ◽

Donglei Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

East Asia ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Global Climate ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

China National Knowledge Infrastructure ◽

Foot And Mouth

AbstractSince the late 1990s, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a common health problem that mostly affects children and infants in Southeast and East Asia. Global climate change is considered to be one of the major risk factors for HFMD. This study aimed to assess the correlation between meteorological factors and HFMD in the Asia-Pacific region. PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data and Weipu Database were searched to identify relevant articles published before May 2018. Data were collected and analysed using R software. We searched 2397 articles and identified 51 eligible papers in this study. The present study included eight meteorological factors; mean temperature, mean highest temperature, mean lowest temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and hours of sunshine were positively correlated with HFMD, with correlation coefficients (CORs) of 0.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42–0.60), 0.43 (95% CI 0.23–0.59), 0.43 (95% CI 0.23–0.60), 0.27 (95% CI 0.19–0.35), 0.19 (95% CI 0.02–0.35) and 0.19 (95% CI 0.11–0.27), respectively. There were sufficient data to support a negative correlation between mean pressure and HFMD (COR = −0.51, 95% CI −0.63 to −0.36). There was no notable correlation with wind speed (COR = 0.10, 95% CI −0.03 to 0.23). Our findings suggest that meteorological factors affect the incidence of HFMD to a certain extent.

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Forecasting incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease using BP neural networks in Jiangsu province, China

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-019-4457-6 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Wendong Liu ◽

Changjun Bao ◽

Yuping Zhou ◽

Hong Ji ◽

Ying Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Arima Model ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Jiangsu Province ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Bp Model

Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a rising public health problem and has attracted considerable attention worldwide. The purpose of this study was to develop an optimal model with meteorological factors to predict the epidemic of HFMD. Methods Two types of methods, back propagation neural networks (BP) and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), were employed to develop forecasting models, based on the monthly HFMD incidences and meteorological factors during 2009–2016 in Jiangsu province, China. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were employed to select model and evaluate the performance of the models. Results Four models were constructed. The multivariate BP model was constructed using the HFMD incidences lagged from 1 to 4 months, mean temperature, rainfall and their one order lagged terms as inputs. The other BP model was fitted just using the lagged HFMD incidences as inputs. The univariate ARIMA model was specified as ARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 (AIC = 1132.12, BIC = 1440.43). And the multivariate ARIMAX with one order lagged temperature as external predictor was fitted based on this ARIMA model (AIC = 1132.37, BIC = 1142.76). The multivariate BP model performed the best in both model fitting stage and prospective forecasting stage, with a MAPE no more than 20%. The performance of the multivariate ARIMAX model was similar to that of the univariate ARIMA model. Both performed much worse than the two BP models, with a high MAPE near to 40%. Conclusion The multivariate BP model effectively integrated the autocorrelation of the HFMD incidence series. Meanwhile, it also comprehensively combined the climatic variables and their hysteresis effects. The introduction of the climate terms significantly improved the prediction accuracy of the BP model. This model could be an ideal method to predict the epidemic level of HFMD, which is of great importance for the public health authorities.

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