Quantifying the relationship between lockdowns, mobility, and effective reproduction number (Rt) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area

Abstract Background The effectiveness of lockdowns in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of intense debate. Data on the relationship between public health restrictions, mobility, and pandemic growth has so far been conflicting. Objective We assessed the relationship between public health restriction tiers, mobility, and COVID-19 spread in five contiguous public health units (PHUs) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in Ontario, Canada. Methods Weekly effective reproduction number (Rt) was calculated based on daily cases in each of the five GTA public health units between March 1, 2020, and March 19, 2021. A global mobility index (GMI) for each PHU was calculated using Google Mobility data. Segmented regressions were used to assess changes in the behaviour of Rt over time. We calculated Pearson correlation coefficients between GMI and Rt for each PHU and mobility regression coefficients for each mobility variable, accounting for time lag of 0, 7, and 14 days. Results In all PHUs except Toronto, the most rapid decline in Rt occurred in the first 2 weeks of the first province-wide lockdown, and this was followed by a slight trend to increased Rt as restrictions decreased. This trend reversed in all PHUs between September 6th and October 10th after which Rt decreased slightly over time without respect to public health restriction tier. GMI began to increase in the first wave even before restrictions were decreased. This secular trend to increased mobility continued into the summer, driven by increased mobility to recreational spaces. The decline in GMI as restrictions were reintroduced coincides with decreasing mobility to parks after September. During the first wave, the correlation coefficients between global mobility and Rt were significant (p < 0.01) in all PHUs 14 days after lockdown, indicating moderate to high correlation between decreased mobility and decreased viral reproduction rates, and reflecting that the incubation period brings in a time-lag effect of human mobility on Rt. In the second wave, this relationship was attenuated, and was only significant in Toronto and Durham at 14 days after lockdown. Conclusions The association between mobility and COVID-19 spread was stronger in the first wave than the second wave. Public health restriction tiers did not alter the existing secular trend toward decreasing Rt over time.

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Quantifying The Relationship Between Lockdowns, Mobility, and Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) During The COVID-19 Pandemic in The Greater Toronto Area

10.21203/rs.3.rs-378425/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christopher Dainton ◽

Alexander Hay

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Secular Trend ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Time Lag ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Greater Toronto Area ◽

Global Mobility ◽

The Relationship ◽

Second Wave ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background: The effectiveness of lockdowns in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of intense debate. Data on the relationship between public health restrictions, mobility, and pandemic growth has so far been conflicting. Objective: We assessed the relationship between public health restriction tiers, mobility, and COVID-19 spread in five contiguous public health units (PHUs) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in Ontario, Canada.Methods: Weekly effective reproduction number (Rt) was calculated based on daily cases in each of the five GTA public health units between March 1, 2020, and March 19, 2021. A global mobility index (GMI) for each PHU was calculated using Google Mobility data. Segmented regressions were used to assess changes in the behaviour of Rt over time. We calculated Pearson correlation coefficients between GMI and Rt for each PHU and mobility regression coefficients for each mobility variable, accounting for time lag of 0, 7, and 14 days.Results: In all PHUs except Toronto, the most rapid decline in Rt occurred in the first two weeks of the first province-wide lockdown, and this was followed by a slight trend to increased Rt as restrictions decreased. This trend reversed in all PHUs between September 6th and October 10th after which Rt decreased slightly over time without respect to public health restriction tier. GMI began to increase in the first wave even before restrictions were decreased. This secular trend to increased mobility continued into the summer, driven by increased mobility to recreational spaces. The decline in GMI as restrictions were reintroduced coincides with decreasing mobility to parks after September. During the first wave, the correlation coefficients between global mobility and Rt were significant (p<0.01) in all PHUs 14 days after lockdown, indicating moderate to high correlation between decreased mobility and decreased viral reproduction rates, and reflecting that the incubation period brings in a time-lag effect of human mobility on Rt. In the second wave, this relationship was attenuated, and was only significant in Toronto and Durham at 14 days after lockdown.Conclusions: The association between mobility and COVID-19 spread was stronger in the first wave than the second wave. Public health restriction tiers did not alter the existing secular trend toward decreasing Rt over time.

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Shared values, shared health, shared prosperity

Whose Health Is It, Anyway? ◽

10.1093/oso/9780198863458.003.0006 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 83-98

Author(s):

Davies and

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Private Sector ◽

Working Conditions ◽

Shared Values ◽

Complex Relationship ◽

Health Security ◽

The Past ◽

Individual Family ◽

The Relationship ◽

Over Time

This chapter looks at the relationship between commerce and health, some of the choices involved, and the impacts they have on total health. Public health specialists and policymakers have only recently begun to explore the complex relationship between commerce and health, what it has been in the past, what it is now, and importantly what it could look like as we re-build society post COVID-19. The role that work and employers play in our individual, family, and collective health, security, and prosperity has developed over time, and the dependence of companies on the health of their workforce, and their vulnerability when employees are ill, has changed too. The private sector can contribute to health in its immediate community, and nationally through the products it promotes, the working conditions for its employees, and the causes it supports.

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Changes in the Relationship between Particulate Matter and Surface Temperature in Seoul from 2002–2017

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10050238 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 238 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Minjoong J. Kim

Keyword(s):

Particulate Matter ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Large Scale ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Recent Decade ◽

Pm10 Concentration ◽

Strong Positive Correlation ◽

Siberian High ◽

The Relationship ◽

Over Time

This study focuses on the changes over time in the relationship between surface temperature and particulate matter (PM) concentration over Seoul using long-term observational data. Correlation coefficients between the daily mean PM10 concentration and surface temperature were calculated to investigate the relationship between the two. The PM10 and temperature displayed a strong positive correlation, suggesting the increase in PM was driven by large-scale synoptic patterns accompanying such high temperatures. It was found that the correlation coefficient in 2002–2009 was significantly higher than that of 2010–2017, indicating that the relationship between PM10 concentration and temperature has weakened over time in recent decades. Correlation coefficients between daily averaged temperature and the PM10 of each year were calculated to account for the decreased correlation in the most recent decade. We found that the correlation coefficients between surface temperature and PM of each year exhibited a clear negative correlation with the longitudinal position of the Siberian High, suggesting that the position of the Siberian High might affect the strength of the relationship between PM concentration and temperature over Seoul. We also found that the eastward shift of the Siberian High reduces the standard deviation of pressure over Seoul, indicating reduction of synoptic perturbation. These results imply that the eastward shift of the Siberian High in recent decades might weaken the relationship between the PM and surface temperature over Seoul. This study suggests that the relationship between PM and meteorological variables is changing over time through changes in large climate variability.

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Tobacco Associated Factors of Adolescents

Journal of Health Sciences ◽

10.17921/2447-8938.2020v22n2p196-202 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 196-202

Author(s):

Maristela Prado e Silva Nazario ◽

Mariana Marra Sepulveda ◽

Olga Dillenburg Rezer ◽

Juliana Santi Sagin Pinto Bergamim ◽

Marcly Schelles Lima ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Smoking Cessation ◽

Associated Factors ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

Government Policies ◽

Tobacco Prevention ◽

Tobacco Use Disorder ◽

Relationship Of ◽

The Relationship ◽

Over Time

Currently, smoking is considered a serious public health problem and is considered the greatest avoidable cause of illness, disability and death. Several studies, over time, have concluded the relationship of smoking to serious diseases that are responsible for anti-smoking government policies worldwide. There are many advances in tobacco prevention and smoking cessation, but data on smoking deaths are still alarming. Brazil is considered a great inspiration for other countries when it comes to these policies, just as other countries served as inspiration for Brazil, such as Canada. Children and adolescents are a group that is very vulnerable to smoking and therefore are considered a priority when it comes to prevention. In light of the above, a bibliographical review was carried out with the objectives of contextualizing the problem of smoking and of identifying the factors that lead adolescents to use tobacco. The study shows that smoking is considered one of several risk situations that the adolescent is exposed in this phase of so many transformations. Most authors point to curiosity as the major factor that leads the adolescent to smoking and the parents and friends smokers as main influences for the initiation of this habit. Keywords: Tobacco. Tobacco Use Disorder. Young. Resumo Atualmente o tabagismo é considerado um sério problema de saúde pública, sendo considerada a maior causa evitável de doenças, invalidez e morte. Diversos estudos, ao longo do tempo, foram concluindo a relação do hábito tabágico às doenças graves que são responsáveis por políticas governamentais antitabagismo em todo mundo. Muitos são os avanços para a prevenção do tabagismo, bem como para o auxílio na cessação deste hábito, porém ainda são alarmantes os dados relacionados ao óbito de fumantes. O Brasil é considerado uma grande inspiração para outros países quando se trata dessas políticas, assim como outros países serviram de inspiração para o Brasil, como o Canadá. As crianças e os adolescentes formam um grupo muito vulnerável ao tabagismo e por este motivo são considerados prioridade quando se trata de prevenção. Frente ao exposto, realizou-se uma revisão bibliográfica com os objetivos de contextualizar a problemática do tabagismo e de identificar os fatores que levam os adolescentes a fazerem uso do tabaco. O estudo mostra que o tabagismo é considerado uma das várias situações de risco que o adolescente é exposto nessa fase de tantas transformações. A maioria dos autores apontam a curiosidade como o maior fator que leva o adolescente ao tabagismo e os pais e amigos fumantes como principais influências para a iniciação deste hábito. Palavras-chave: Tabaco. Tabagimo. Saúde do Adolescente.

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Delineation of public health risk factor associate with the mortality ratio in covid-19 pandemic situation during legislative assembly elections from Indian states

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1052422/v1 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

BIJAY HALDER

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Indian States ◽

Case Identification ◽

The Public ◽

Mortality Ratio ◽

Life Threatening ◽

The Relationship ◽

Second Wave ◽

Death Cases ◽

Legislative Assembly

Abstract The coronavirus is an accurate disease and this virus-related pandemic is hammering human health and increased the public health emergency till now. The main objective of this study is to find out the death, mortality ratio, new cases, and recoveries case identification and correlation analysis between them using regression technique on legislative assembly elections from India. This study encompassed the present disorder of India throughout the elections time in India from 27th March 2021 to 29th April 2020. Statistical analysis was developed by the covid-19 database for monitoring and analyzing the health statutes during elections. Mortality ratio, the relation between active and death cases, active cases and recover cases in India are calculating corona affected data. The results show that death cases were high in the second wave of coronavirus in India. The correlation between daily death and new cases was strong positive (R2= 0.9306). The relationship between recoveries and death was stronger positive (R2=0.9832). The daily death and active cases collation indicated that strong positive (R2= 0.9703). The COVID-19 is dangerous to people's health. The virus is more life-threatening and if people will not follow the WHO guidelines, and it strength demonstration additional havoc very shortly.

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Prospective Relationships Between Physical Activity and Optimism in Young and Mid-aged Women

Journal of Physical Activity and Health ◽

10.1123/jpah.2014-0070 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 915-923 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Toby G. Pavey ◽

Nicola W. Burton ◽

Wendy J Brown

Keyword(s):

Physical Activity ◽

Young Women ◽

Time Lag ◽

Estimating Equation ◽

Poor Mental Health ◽

Self Report ◽

Generalized Estimating Equation ◽

Negative Effects ◽

The Relationship ◽

Over Time

Background:There is growing evidence that regular physical activity (PA) reduces the risk of poor mental health. Less research has focused on the relationship between PA and positive wellbeing. The study aims were to assess the prospective associations between PA and optimism, in both young and mid-aged women.Methods:9688 young women (born 1973–1978) completed self-report surveys in 2000 (age 22 to 27), 2003, 2006, and 2009; and 11,226 mid-aged women (born 1946–1951) completed surveys in 2001 (age 50–55) 2004, 2007, and 2010, as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Generalized estimating equation models (with 3-year time lag) were used to examine the relationship between PA and optimism in both cohorts.Results:In both cohorts, women reporting higher levels of PA had greater odds of reporting higher optimism over the 9-year period, (young, OR = 5.04, 95% CI: 3.85–6.59; mid-age, OR = 5.77, 95% CI: 4.76–7.00) than women who reported no PA. Odds were attenuated in adjusted models, with depression accounting for a large amount of this attenuation (young, OR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.57–2.55; mid-age, OR = 1.64 95% CI: 1.38–1.94).Conclusions:Physical activity can promote optimism in young and mid-aged women over time, even after accounting for the negative effects of other psychosocial indicators such as depression.

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Inequalities in suicide rates associated with deprivation in England from 2004 to 2019

British Journal of General Practice ◽

10.3399/bjgp20x711593 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 70 (suppl 1) ◽

pp. bjgp20X711593

Author(s):

Sam Hodgson ◽

Jack Hodgson

Keyword(s):

Suicide Rate ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Significant Research ◽

The Mean ◽

The Relationship ◽

Index Of Multiple Deprivation ◽

Political Priority ◽

Over Time ◽

Research And Policy

BackgroundAlthough addressing inequality has been a public and political priority for decades, inequalities in health, wealth, and other societal domains persist in England. In Ireland, rates of suicide are twice as high in the most deprived decile of society compared with the least deprived. Trends in the association between deprivation and suicide in England are unclear.AimTo describe the relationship between deprivation and suicide in England in 2019 and analyse trends in this relationship over time.MethodData on rate of suicide and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for each local authority in England for 2018 and 2004 were obtained from the Office for National Statistics’ publicly available databases. The mean suicide rate for each quintile of deprivation was calculated, and means compared using ANOVA. The correlation coefficients between IMD and suicide rate were calculated for both 2004 and 2019. Steiger’s test was used to compare coefficients over time.ResultsIn 2019, the suicide rate in the least deprived quintile was 8.7 per 100 000 person-years, compared with 8.3 in 2004. This increased across each quintile to 11.1 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the most deprived quintile in 2019 (ANOVA: P<0.001), and to 11.7 in 2004 (ANOVA: P<0.001). The correlation coefficient between IMD and suicide rate in 2004 was 0.43, compared with 0.33 in 2019. Steiger’s test demonstrated no significant difference between coefficients over time (P = 0.16).ConclusionSuicide is associated with deprivation in England. Despite significant research and policy effort, there has been no improvement in this association between 2004 and 2019.

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A Time-Lag Study of the Effect of Organisational Capital on Innovation in Australia SMEs

Journal of Management Info ◽

10.31580/jmi.v6i1.124 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 39-43

Author(s):

YASMIN Kamall KHAN

Keyword(s):

Information Technology ◽

Key Words ◽

Time Lag ◽

Australian Bureau ◽

Innovation Performance ◽

Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽

The Relationship ◽

Over Time

This study explores the strategic links between organisational capital and innovation performance in Australian SMEs. This study classified organisational capital as information technology as per hardware and software; and equipment or machinery that was applied in the firm. A sample involving SME from various industries was adapted from the Business Longitudinal Database (BLD) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The analyses validate that information technology capabilities is essential for achieving innovation performance. However the relationship decline over time for different type of innovation. Thus, SME managers should be carefully in investing in appropriate information technology in order to facilitate innovation in their firm. Key Words: SMEs, Organisational capital, Innovation, Australia

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The Comparison of Epidemiological Characteristics Between Confirmed and Clinically Diagnosed Cases With COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-131069/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Fang Shi ◽

Haoyu Wen ◽

Rui Liu ◽

Jianjun Bai ◽

Fang Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Clinical Diagnosis ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Elderly Men ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background: To put COVID-19 patients into hospital timely, the clinical diagnosis had been implemented in Wuhan in the early outbreak. Here we compared the epidemiological characteristics of laboratory-confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases with COVID-19 in Wuhan.Methods: Demographics, case severity and outcomes of 29886 confirmed cases and 21960 clinically diagnosed cases reported between December 2019 and February 24, 2020, were compared. The risk factors were estimated, and the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (Rt) was also calculated.Results: The interval between symptom onset and diagnosis of confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases reduced gradually as time went by, and the proportion of severe and critical cases as well as case fatality rates of the two groups all decreased over time. The proportion of severe and critical cases (21.5% vs 14.0%, P<0.0001) and case fatality rates (5.2% vs 1.2%, P<0.0001) of confirmed cases were all higher than those of clinically diagnosed cases. Risk factors for death we observed in all two groups were older age, male, severe or critical cases. Rt showed a downward trend after the lockdown of Wuhan, it dropped below 1.0 on February 6 among confirmed cases, and February 8 among clinically diagnosed cases.Conclusion: Public health responses taken in Wuhan, including clinical diagnosis, have contributed to slow transmission. In cases where testing kits are insufficient, clinical diagnosis is effective, which is helpful to quarantine or treat infected cases as soon as possible, and prevent the epidemic from worsening. To decrease the case fatality rate of COVID-19, it is necessary to strengthen early warning and intervention of severe and critical elderly men.

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Emerging application of Google Trends searches on “conjunctivitis” for tracing the course of COVID-19 pandemic

European Journal of Ophthalmology ◽

10.1177/11206721211042551 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 112067212110425

Author(s):

Marco Pellegrini ◽

Edoardo Ferrucci ◽

Fabio Guaraldi ◽

Federico Bernabei ◽

Vincenzo Scorcia ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

United Kingdom ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Time Correlation ◽

Google Trends ◽

Control Group ◽

Search Volume ◽

Relative Search Volume ◽

The Relationship ◽

Second Wave

Purpose: The aim of the present study was to use Google Trends for evaluating the association between the internet searches of the term “conjunctivitis” and the daily new cases of COVID-19. Methods: The relative search volume (RSV) of conjunctivitis from January 1 to April 16, 2019 (control group), January 1 to April 16, 2020 (first wave), and October 1 to December 31, 2020 (second wave) was obtained using Google Trends in Italy, France, United Kingdom, and United States. The number of COVID-19 daily new cases in the same countries were retrieved from Worldometer. Lag time correlation analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between RSV and daily new cases (Pearson’s correlation coefficient). Results: During the first wave, the lagged RSV of conjunctivitis was significantly correlated with the number of COVID-19 daily new cases in all investigated countries. The highest correlation coefficients were obtained with a lag of 16 days in Italy ( R = 0.868), 18 days in France ( R = 0.491), 15 days in United Kingdom ( R = 0.883), and 14 days in United States ( R = 0.484) (all p < 0.001). Conversely, no significant correlations were found in the second wave and in the control group. Conclusion: Google Trends searches on conjunctivitis were significantly correlated with COVID-19 daily new cases during the first wave in Italy, France, United Kingdom, and United States, with a lag of 14–18 days. Repeating the analysis for the second wave, however, no significant correlations were found in any of the investigated countries.

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