scholarly journals The assessment of quantitative risk to road users from debris flow

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Winter ◽  
J. C. F. Wong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Road Users ◽  
High Magnitude ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Of Risk ◽  
Low Magnitude

Abstract Background A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the impact of debris flow in a road environment has been developed and applied to two sites that are typically subject to high frequency-low magnitude and low frequency-high magnitude events. The methodology considers the probability of an event of a typical size, and the conditional probabilities of a vehicle being affected, given an event, and of damage (fatality) occurring given that the vehicle is affected. Scenarios covering a vehicle being hit by a debris flow and of a vehicle hitting a debris flow are considered. The computed Personal Individual Risk (PIR) is used to calculate worst case fatality probabilities for commuters and logistics truck drivers. The overall risk to society is expressed both by the annual probability of fatality amongst all road users, the Potential Loss of Life (PLL), and using the F-N diagram and is used to demonstrate the effect of a programme of management and mitigation works on the societal risk at one of the sites. The authors believe that this is the first full, formal quantitative risk assessment for debris flow risk to road users. Results The PIR for a single trip through the sites ranges between 1.147E-10 for the low frequency-high magnitude site and 1.583E-09 for the high frequency-low magnitude site. These figures increase to 1.248E-07 and 1.922E-06, respectively, when more frequent travellers are considered. The PLL for the two sites ranges between 2.616E-04 for the low frequency-high magnitude site and 4.083E-03 for the high frequency-low magnitude site. The F-N diagrams illustrate the Broadly Acceptable level of risk at the low frequency-high magnitude site and the partially Unacceptable level of risk at the high frequency-low magnitude site. The risk at the high frequency-low magnitude site is reduced to ALARP levels when management and mitigation measures extant as of October 2014 are considered. Conclusions The QRA proves an effective technique for understanding, comparing and articulating the differences in levels of risk and the temporal changes in risk at a given site as a result of landslide risk reduction activities.

Design of a risk assessment methodology for the introduction of invasive species from ship ballast waters

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 474-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahmane Bouda ◽  
Nour El Islam Bachari ◽  
Lylia Bahmed ◽  
Ryad Boubenia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Ballast Water ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Convention ◽  
Environmental Similarity ◽  
Process Factors ◽  
Shipping Traffic ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Ballast water of merchant ship is a source of introduction of invasive species around the globe. The purpose of this paper is to present a quantitative risk assessment applied to a model port, the Port of Arzew in Algeria, and based on an analysis of this port’s shipping traffic. Design/methodology/approach – The risk assessment for introduction of invasive species is interpreted in the form of a probabilistic process, with a combination of two probabilities. The first probability is related to the ability of a species to arrive to the destination (recipient port), depending on the quantity of water ballast discharged and the duration of voyage. The second one is based on the species ability to survive in their new environment, which depends on the environmental similarity between donor port and Arzew port. Findings – This assessment’s outcome consists on a classification of scenarios regarding their acceptability. Consequently, it helped to classify donor ports according to a risk scale, from low risk to high-risk donor ports. Research limitations/implications – The phenomenon of invasion of aquatic species is a complex process. Factors such as adaptation and tolerance of species, the attendance or absence of predators, were not taken into account in this study. Practical implications – This study could be used by the maritime administration as a decision-making tool regarding the issue of exemptions under the IMO International Convention on the Management of Ballast Water and Sediments 2004. Originality/value – This is one of the first known studies in Algeria and dealing with ballast water management. The results of this assessment provide useful information to policy makers, in order to develop a national strategy to reduce the impact of shipping pollution on the marine environment.

FDA-iRISK—A Comparative Risk Assessment System for Evaluating and Ranking Food-Hazard Pairs: Case Studies on Microbial Hazards

2013 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUHUAN CHEN ◽  
SHERRI B. DENNIS ◽  
EMMA HARTNETT ◽  
GREG PAOLI ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

scholarly journals Statistical regularities cause attentional suppression with target-matching distractors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Kerzel ◽  
Stanislas Huynh Cong
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Target Location ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Target Display ◽  
Distractor Location ◽  
Target Feature ◽  
Statistical Regularities ◽  
Feature Based ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Target Matching

AbstractVisual search may be disrupted by the presentation of salient, but irrelevant stimuli. To reduce the impact of salient distractors, attention may suppress their processing below baseline level. While there are many studies on the attentional suppression of distractors with features distinct from the target (e.g., a color distractor with a shape target), there is little and inconsistent evidence for attentional suppression with distractors sharing the target feature. In this study, distractor and target were temporally separated in a cue–target paradigm, where the cue was shown briefly before the target display. With target-matching cues, RTs were shorter when the cue appeared at the target location (valid cues) compared with when it appeared at a nontarget location (invalid cues). To induce attentional suppression, we presented the cue more frequently at one out of four possible target positions. We found that invalid cues appearing at the high-frequency cue position produced less interference than invalid cues appearing at a low-frequency cue position. Crucially, target processing was also impaired at the high-frequency cue position, providing strong evidence for attentional suppression of the cued location. Overall, attentional suppression of the frequent distractor location could be established through feature-based attention, suggesting that feature-based attention may guide attentional suppression just as it guides attentional enhancement.

scholarly journals The Impact of Physical Environment and Regional Image on Tourist’s Experiential Values and Feelings: An Example of Nanzhuang Area in Taiwan

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Shwu-Ing Wu ◽  
Li Chia Huang
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Physical Environment ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Frequency Group ◽  
Experiential Value ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Two Independent Variables

With the booming global tourism activities, many countries around the world are actively promoting regional tourism. Thus, understanding the tourists’ needs is important in developing tourism promotion strategies. With Nanzhuang Township, Miaoli County as the case study, this paper discusses the influence of the two independent variables, the tangible physical environment and the intangible regional image, tourists’ experiential value and the feelings after tourism. This study conducted a questionnaire survey on tourists who have visited Nanzhuang Township, Miaoli County, by convenience sampling, in order to construct the model of regional experience marketing effect. A total of 743 effective samples were retrieved. After analysis by structural equation modeling (SEM), it is found that: (1) the physical environment has a positive and significant influence on the tourists’ experiential value; (2) regional image has a positive and significant influence on the tourist’s experiential value; (3) the experiential value has a positive and significant influence on satisfaction; (4) satisfaction has a positive and significant influence on trust and commitment; (5) trust has no significant influence on commitment. Regarding the two independent variables, regional image has more influence. In addition, after comparing the group models by clustering with the high and low frequency of the number of visits, it is found that there are some differences between the high frequency group and the low frequency group, where the regional image of the high frequency group has a greater influence on the experiential value and the physical environment of the low frequency group has a greater influence on the experiential value. The findings can serve as reference for the local government and the tourism operators to develop regional marketing strategies.

scholarly journals Submarine Slope Stability of a Fjord Delta: Bella Coola, British Columbia

2007 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray A. Kostaschuk ◽  
S. Brian McCann
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Mass Movements ◽  
Wave Loading ◽  
Gas Generation ◽  
Source Areas ◽  
High Magnitude ◽  
Pore Water Pressures ◽  
Bella Coola

ABSTRACT Recent evidence indicates that the submarine slopes of the Bella Coola Delta, a fjord delta in British Columbia, are subject to mass movements. Mass movements originate in the source areas of chutes (gullies) and transfer coarse sediment downslope. Stability analyses indicate that earthquakes, depositional loading and wave loading are capable of causing slope failures in chute source areas. Gas generation and tidal drawdown appear to reduce sediment strength by increasing pore water pressures, increasing the potential for failures initiated by other mechanisms. Failure related to slope over-steepening at distributary mouths would require much steeper slopes than those encountered. The most unstable areas are those at distributary mouths where most of the mechanisms of failure generation could occur simultaneously. With the exception of earthquakes, the failure mechanisms examined would result in high frequency, low magnitude slides that are most likely to occur in spring and summer. Earthquakes would cause high magnitude, low frequency failures.

Feature Analysis of Mechanical Fault Signals Based on the Wavelet Transform Technique

2010 ◽  
Vol 139-141 ◽  
pp. 2502-2505
Author(s):  
Bing Cheng Wang ◽  
Zhao Hui Ren
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Amplitude Spectrum ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Feature Analysis ◽  
Oil Whip ◽  
Frequency Components ◽  
Quantitative Manner ◽  
Beat Phenomenon ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Simulated four different fault signals in the lab, the authors then used wavelet scalogram and amplitude spectrum to make analysis on the above four fault signals and abstract each spectrum characteristics. Wavelet scalogram was able to extract the characteristic’s frequency, show the impact components caused by rub-impact, show the beat phenomenon caused by oil whip and show the irreducible high frequency components as well as the complex low-frequency components. Amplitude spectrum was able to show the energy size distribution at various frequency bands and able to analyze and calculate the relationship between various frequency components. Thus they express the relationship between various frequency banks from a quantitative manner. Therefore, combining the wavelet scalogram and amplitude spectrum when making analysis, as they complement and verify each other, it will enhance the reliability when extract and analyze the characteristics of fault signal.

scholarly journals Tracking the impact of COVID-19 on economic inequality at high frequency

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0249121
Author(s):  
Oriol Aspachs ◽  
Ruben Durante ◽  
Alberto Graziano ◽  
Josep Mestres ◽  
Marta Reynal-Querol ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Economic Inequality ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Wage Earners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wage Cuts ◽  
Fine Tune

Pandemics have historically had a significant impact on economic inequality. However, official inequality statistics are only available at low frequency and with considerable delay, which challenges policymakers in their objective to mitigate inequality and fine-tune public policies. We show that using data from bank records it is possible to measure economic inequality at high frequency. The approach proposed in this paper allows measuring, timely and accurately, the impact on inequality of fast-unfolding crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying this approach to data from a representative sample of over three million residents of Spain we find that, absent government intervention, inequality would have increased by almost 30% in just one month. The granularity of the data allows analyzing with great detail the sources of the increases in inequality. In the Spanish case we find that it is primarily driven by job losses and wage cuts experienced by low-wage earners. Government support, in particular extended unemployment insurance and benefits for furloughed workers, were generally effective at mitigating the increase in inequality, though less so among young people and foreign-born workers. Therefore, our approach provides knowledge on the evolution of inequality at high frequency, the effectiveness of public policies in mitigating the increase of inequality and the subgroups of the population most affected by the changes in inequality. This information is fundamental to fine-tune public policies on the wake of a fast-moving pandemic like the COVID-19.

scholarly journals Aggregated Risk Assessment and Survey for Risk Reduction in Oil Terminals

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12169
Author(s):  
Robertas Alzbutas ◽  
Mindaugas Vaisnoras ◽  
Inga Saruniene ◽  
Ricardas Krikstolaitis ◽  
Mindaugas Valincius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Risk Aggregation ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
The Impact

One of the goals of any oil terminal is to make a business while avoiding hazardous events and harmful effects for both humans and the environment. This can be achieved by creating a safe working place as well as by performing safe and acceptable activities regarding the impact on surrounding objects, including residential and industrial areas. The aim of the hazard analysis of the oil terminal is to assess the risks related to hazardous events or phenomena and to evaluate whether the assessed risks are acceptable. The hazard analysis and assessment of risk are also used for risk reduction while examining and limiting hazardous scenarios that, for instance, involve the loss-of-containment of flammable or combustible material. In this paper, the authors aim to contribute to risk research by providing a comprehensive methodology of risk assessment for oil terminals with case study results and discussion on features of the methodology, risk aggregation, its applicability for risk reduction, and industrial interests. The performed study considered the “Klaipedos Nafta AB” (an operator of the Klaipeda Oil Terminal, Lithuania) case study regarding hazardous materials that might be released from various tanks, devices, and associated pipelines. The performed quantitative risk assessment has enabled the determination of the probability regarding whether releases would ignite and, for instance, cause explosion. In the case study, the estimate of probability, i.e., the frequency, and the possible consequences of the hazardous events were evaluated, and both mitigation and risk reduction measures were also considered.

Validating ecological risk assessments for fisheries: assessing the impacts of turtle excluder devices on elasmobranch bycatch populations in an Australian trawl fishery

2006 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane P. Griffiths ◽  
David T. Brewer ◽  
Don S. Heales ◽  
David A. Milton ◽  
Ilona C. Stobutzki
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Trawl Fishery ◽  
Recovery Potential ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Fishing Impacts ◽  
The Impact

Demonstrating ecological sustainability is a challenge for fisheries worldwide, and few methods can quantify fishing impacts on diverse, low value or rare species. The current study employed a widely used ecological risk assessment method and incorporated new data to assess the change in sustainability of species following the introduction of Turtle Excluder Devices (TEDs) in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF). Population recovery ranks changed for 19 of the 56 elasmobranch species after the introduction of TEDs, with nine species showing an increase in sustainability. Unexpectedly, ten species showed a decrease in sustainability. This was due to TEDs successfully excluding large animals from the catch, resulting in a lower mean length at capture, which reduced the recovery ranks for two criteria relying on length data. This falsely indicates that TEDs increase the impact on pre-breeding animals, thus reducing the recovery potential of these species. The results demonstrate that existing attribute-based risk assessment methods may be inadequate for reflecting even the most obvious changes in fishing impacts on bycatch species. Industry and management can benefit greatly from an approach that more accurately estimates absolute risk. The development and requirements of a new quantitative risk assessment method to be developed for the NPF, and applicable to fisheries worldwide, are discussed.

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