Fitting hidden semi-Markov models to breakpoint rainfall data

2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (A) ◽  
pp. 142-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Sansom ◽  
Peter Thomson

The paper proposes a hidden semi-Markov model for breakpoint rainfall data that consist of both the times at which rain-rate changes and the steady rates between such changes. The model builds on and extends the seminal work of Ferguson (1980) on variable duration models for speech. For the rainfall data the observations are modelled as mixtures of log-normal distributions within unobserved states where the states evolve in time according to a semi-Markov process. For the latter, parametric forms need to be specified for the state transition probabilities and dwell-time distributions.Recursions for constructing the likelihood are developed and the EM algorithm used to fit the parameters of the model. The choice of dwell-time distribution is discussed with a mixture of distributions over disjoint domains providing a flexible alternative. The methods are also extended to deal with censored data. An application of the model to a large-scale bivariate dataset of breakpoint rainfall measurements at Wellington, New Zealand, is discussed.

2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (A) ◽  
pp. 142-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Sansom ◽  
Peter Thomson

The paper proposes a hidden semi-Markov model for breakpoint rainfall data that consist of both the times at which rain-rate changes and the steady rates between such changes. The model builds on and extends the seminal work of Ferguson (1980) on variable duration models for speech. For the rainfall data the observations are modelled as mixtures of log-normal distributions within unobserved states where the states evolve in time according to a semi-Markov process. For the latter, parametric forms need to be specified for the state transition probabilities and dwell-time distributions. Recursions for constructing the likelihood are developed and the EM algorithm used to fit the parameters of the model. The choice of dwell-time distribution is discussed with a mixture of distributions over disjoint domains providing a flexible alternative. The methods are also extended to deal with censored data. An application of the model to a large-scale bivariate dataset of breakpoint rainfall measurements at Wellington, New Zealand, is discussed.


2014 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Masala ◽  
Giuseppina Cannas ◽  
Marco Micocci

SUMMARY In this paper we apply a parametric semi-Markov process to model the dynamic evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. The seriousness of the infection is rendered by the CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts. For this purpose we introduce the main features of nonhomogeneous semi-Markov models. After determining the transition probabilities and the waiting time distributions in each state of the disease, we solve the evolution equations of the process in order to estimate the interval transition probabilities. These quantities appear to be of fundamental importance for clinical predictions. We also estimate the survival probabilities for HIV infected patients and compare them with respect to certain categories, such as gender, age group or type of antiretroviral therapy. Finally we attach a reward structure to the aforementioned semi-Markov processes in order to estimate clinical costs. For this purpose we generate random trajectories from the semi-Markov processes through Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed model is then applied to a large database provided by ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy), and all the quantities of interest are computed.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay A. VonBank ◽  
Mitch D. Weegman ◽  
Paul T. Link ◽  
Stephanie A. Cunningham ◽  
Kevin J. Kraai ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Animal movement patterns are the result of both environmental and physiological effects, and the rates of movement and energy expenditure of given movement strategies are influenced by the physical environment an animal inhabits. Greater white-fronted geese in North America winter in ecologically distinct regions and have undergone a large-scale shift in wintering distribution over the past 20 years. White-fronts continue to winter in historical wintering areas in addition to contemporary areas, but the rates of movement among regions, and energetic consequences of those decisions, are unknown. Additionally, linkages between wintering and breeding regions are generally unknown, and may influence within-winter movement rates. Methods We used Global Positioning System and acceleration data from 97 white-fronts during two winters to elucidate movement characteristics, model regional transition probabilities using a multistate model in a Bayesian framework, estimate regional energy expenditure, and determine behavior time-allocation influences on energy expenditure using overall dynamic body acceleration and linear mixed-effects models. We assess the linkages between wintering and breeding regions by evaluating the winter distributions for each breeding region. Results White-fronts exhibited greater daily movement early in the winter period, and decreased movements as winter progressed. Transition probabilities were greatest towards contemporary winter regions and away from historical wintering regions. Energy expenditure was up to 55% greater, and white-fronts spent more time feeding and flying, in contemporary wintering regions compared to historical regions. White-fronts subsequently summered across their entire previously known breeding distribution, indicating substantial mixing of individuals of varying breeding provenance during winter. Conclusions White-fronts revealed extreme plasticity in their wintering strategy, including high immigration probability to contemporary wintering regions, high emigration from historical wintering regions, and high regional fidelity to western regions, but frequent movements among eastern regions. Given that movements of white-fronts trended toward contemporary wintering regions, we anticipate that a wintering distribution shift eastward will continue. Unexpectedly, greater energy expenditure in contemporary wintering regions revealed variable energetic consequences of choice in wintering region and shifting distribution. Because geese spent more time feeding in contemporary regions than historical regions, increased energy expenditure is likely balanced by increased energy acquisition in contemporary wintering areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Askarisichani ◽  
Ambuj K. Singh ◽  
Francesco Bullo ◽  
Noah E. Friedkin

AbstractThere has been longstanding interest in the evolution of positive and negative relationships among countries. An interdisciplinary field of study, Structural Balance Theory, has developed on the dynamics of such appraisal systems. However, the advancement of research in the field has been impeded by the lack of longitudinal empirical data on large-scale networks. We construct the networks of international amicable and hostile relations occurring in specific time-periods in order to study the global evolution of the network of such international appraisals. Here we present an empirical evidence on the alignment of Structural Balance Theory with the evolution of the structure of this network, and a model of the probabilistic micro-dynamics of the alterations of international appraisals during the period 1995-2018. Also remarkably, we find that the trajectory of the Frobenius norm of sequential transition probabilities, which govern the evolution of international appraisals among nations, dramatically stabilizes.


1971 ◽  
Vol 178 (1051) ◽  
pp. 131-149 ◽  

A previous occasion on which the Croonian lecture was directly concerned with the mechanism of muscular contraction was in 1945, when it was delivered by Professor W. T. Astbury. On that occasion he commented that it was a sign of the times that a physicist should be asked to give the Croonian lecture, and went on to say, and I quote: ‘We are at the dawn of a new era, the era of “molecular biology”, as I like to call it, and there is an urgency about the need for more intensive application of physics and chemistry, and specially structural analysis, to biological problems.’ These were very prophetic words, and, as a physicist just entering biology, I was much interested to read them, and to learn about his experiments. The basic experimental finding which Astbury reported (1947) was that there did not seem to be any important change in the wide angle X-ray diagram from muscle upon contraction; hence it followed that muscles did not contract by any process which simply involved the large-scale disorientation of originally well-ordered polypeptide chains, nor by an alteration in chain configuration in the well-ordered parts of the structure. Astbury suggested instead that there might be ‘specifically active foci’ which one could perhaps paraphrase as ‘larger structural units’ (i.e. larger than individual polypeptide chains) concerned in contraction, which might be studied in the electron microscope or by low angle X-ray diffraction.


2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 293
Author(s):  
A.A. Al-Sammarraie ◽  
F.A. Ahmed ◽  
A.A. Okhunov

The negative-parity states of 24Mg nucleus are investigated within the shell model. We are based on the calculations of energy levels, total squared form factors, and transition probability using the p-sd-pf (PSDPF) Hamiltonian in a large model space (0 + 1) hW. The comparison between the experimental and theoretical states showed a good agreement within a truncated model space. The PSDPF-based calculations successfully reproduced the data on the total squared form factors and transition probabilities of the negative-parity states in 24Mg nucleus. These quantities depend on the one-body density matrix elements that are obtained from the PSDPF Hamiltonian. The wave functions of radial one-particle matrix elements calculated with the harmonic-oscillator potential are suitable to predict experimental data by changing the center-of-mass corrections.


2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 14-31
Author(s):  
O.V. Zhukov ◽  
V.O. Sirovatko ◽  
N.O. Ponomarenko

<p>We estimated the size and shape characteristics of agricultural fields within the administrative area and identified patterns of the margin trends from 1950-1960 till the present time. Here we considered large-scale soil maps for the area of Vasilkovsky district of the Dnepropetrovsk region, which were drawn up in 1950-1960. To assess the landscape metric we used FRAGSTATS program which allow to make conformity assessment of the observed distributions of field sizes regards the normal, exponential, log-normal, gamma, Weibull, and Pareto distributions. We also used Box-Cox transformation to convert the experimental data into the normal distribution law for the further application of the transformed data in regression analysis. We estimated that the area of agricultural fields ranged from 1.20 to 269.00 hectares during the period of large-scale mapping in 1950-1960. The variation limits of the field sizes based on the results of remote sensing data and in our time they are 2,.5-266.57 hectares. Area of the fields in different periods strongly correlate and are statistically significant (<em>r</em> = 0.98, <em>p</em> = 0.00). Field sizes currently associated with the field sizes in the 50-60 years of linear regression. Shape parameters and field sizes significantly correlated, therefore, to establish the main trends of varying shape and size of fields, as well as for non-multicollinearity variables for regression analysis, we performed a multivariate factor analysis. An important aspect of the structuring of the agri-landscape is the location of settlements and, therefore, the fields distance from them. In results obtained indicate that the processes increase and decrease the size of fields in agricultural production are determined by various factors. Aspects of the shape and size of the fields associated with the dynamics of the processes that lead to variations in field areas. Fields that have shown a tendency to change their size, have different characteristics of forms and size from the stable fields. Typically, variable field size is smaller and more complex shapes.</p>


Author(s):  
E. G. Molotkova ◽  

The article considers the functional zoning of the territory of the Admiralteisky Island in St. Petersburg, which had been formed by the beginning of the 1730-s. The evolution of the living environment of sailors and shipyard workers, which was located on both banks of the Moyka River in St. Petersburg, is considered, and the indicators of the urban development compaction taking place during the indicated period are highlighted. The circumstances of the alteration of the urbanization process strategy, which manifested itself in the second half of the 1730-s, are considered. The author emphasizes the fundamental difference between the concept of the times of Peter the Great and the new trend, when artistic and emotional criteria acquired a decisive importance. There are revealed social and economic foundations of forming the system of urban morphotypes. This system has become a tool for the reconstruction of the existing residential area and a means of rational development of new space. The land use system (regulation of the size of parcels) and the alteration in the transport and planning frame (changing of the street route) are proposed to be considered the key tools for the large-scale de-compaction of inhabited districts. The high rates of urban planning transformations of this time and their radical nature are emphasized. A cluster approach to the use of territorial resources and the formation of buildings on the outskirts of the city (late 1730-s - early 1740-s) is noted. A similarity with the modern practice of locating isolated residential complexes in remote areas is shown. It is recommended to take into account the experience of integrating clusters into the urban environment that started to be practiced in the second half of the XVIII century.


Author(s):  
Wanling Song ◽  
Anna L. Duncan ◽  
Mark S.P. Sansom

AbstractG protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) play key roles in cellular signalling. GPCRs are suggested to form dimers and higher order oligomers in response to activation. However, we do not fully understand GPCR activation at larger scales and in an in vivo context. We have characterised oligomeric configurations of the adenosine 2a receptor (A2aR) by combining large-scale molecular dynamics simulations with Markov state models. Receptor activation results in enhanced oligomerisation, more diverse oligomer populations, and a more connected oligomerisation network. The active state conformation of the A2aR shifts protein-protein association interfaces to those involving intracellular loop ICL3 and transmembrane helix TM6. Binding of PIP2 to A2aR stabilises protein-protein interactions via PIP2-mediated association interfaces. These results indicate that A2aR oligomerisation is responsive to the local membrane lipid environment. This in turn suggests a modulatory effect on A2aR whereby a given oligomerisation profile favours the dynamic formation of specific supra-molecular signalling complexes.


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