scholarly journals How Well Can the Migration Component of Regional Population Change be Predicted? A Machine Learning Approach Applied to German Municipalities

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Weber
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Migration Rates ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
The Future

For several decades, demographic forecasts had predicted that the majority of Germany’s cities and rural areas would experience population decline in the early 21st century. Instead, recent trends show a growing population size in three out of every four German districts. As a result, there are currently severe shortages of housing and childcare in regions that were projected to decline but have instead grown in recent years. Other regions, by contrast, continue to lose young people in particular. Most of these differences between regions stem from within-country as well as international migration. An important question for both regional demographic research as well as local policy-makers is thus how well net migration rates in cities and rural districts can be predicted several years into the future. In this study, we develop models that predict migration (both within-country as well as international migration) at the level of municipalities for two demographic groups, namely young people aged 18 to 24 years, and families (people aged 30 to 49 years and underage children). We collect data on economic, demographic and other characteristics such as distances to large cities or universities for around 3,000 German municipalities (Gemeinden). The model is trained on a subset of these data from the period 2005-2009 and predicts net migration rates among young people on an unseen test dataset in the future (i.e. for the period 2011-2015). The results show that the model can predict future net migration by young people aged 18 to 24 years reasonably well (R² > 0.5), although there were quite significant changes during the period under study, for example refugee immigration to Germany. Family migration, on the other hand, cannot be predicted equally well (R² = 0.25). Some important lessons emerge concerning the predictability of regional and international migration and the usefulness of demographic forecasts for local policy-makers.

scholarly journals The relative (un)certainty of subnational population decline

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Cameron
Keyword(s):  
Nobel Prize ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Nobel Prize Winner ◽  
Niels Bohr ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Population

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” This quote is attributed to Danish physicist and Nobel prize winner Niels Bohr, but the difficulty of making predictions does not stop us from making forecasts of economic, demographic, and other variables. Investors, businesses, policy makers and others use these forecasts to inform their decisions about investments and policy settings where understanding of the future trajectory and levels of costs and benefits are essential. One key example is forecasts of future population. The size and distribution (whether geographic, age, ethnic, or some other distribution) of the future population is a critical input into urban and other planning. Understanding the methods and limitations of forecasts is an important but often underappreciated task for planners and policymakers.

scholarly journals When Urban Planning Doctrine Meets Low Density Countryside

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-206
Author(s):  
Maarit Sireni
Keyword(s):  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Local Responses ◽  
National Planning ◽  
Settlement Structure ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regional Newspaper

AbstractDrawing on an empirical analysis of Finnish local policy-makers’ views on land use planning aims in rural areas, this paper investigates local responses to the new national planning regulations set out by the Government. According to the new norms, a dense settlement structure should be promoted not only in urban centres but also in rural areas in order to curb climate change and improve the viability of communities. Based on the data obtained from an internet-based survey conducted by a regional newspaper in western Finland before municipal elections in 2008 and 2012, this paper shows that the majority of the local policy-makers challenge the new norms. They do not believe that sustainable development can be promoted by constraining building rights in the rural region characterised by a dispersed settlement structure.

Rural Communities and Well-Being: A Good Place to Grow Up?

2003 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Glendinning ◽  
Mark Nuttall ◽  
Leo Hendry ◽  
Marion Kloep ◽  
Sheila Wood
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Young People ◽  
Young Women ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Sense Of Self ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Social Aspects ◽  
Community Life ◽  
Social Lives ◽  
The Future

This study looks at young people's accounts of life in communities in rural northern Scotland, and considers in what ways affective and social aspects of community are bound up with well-being, over and above young people's concerns for the future, rural youth transitions, and out-migration. Interviews were held with 15–18 year-olds in four study areas (16 groups, N = 60+) and a parallel survey of 11–16 year-olds was conducted in eight study areas (N = 2400+). Themes to emerge from the interviews included: opportunities locally, the future and staying on, as well as local amenities and services; but older teenagers also spoke at length about their social lives, family and social networks, and their community, both as close-knit and caring and as intrusive and controlling. Rural communities were seen as good places in childhood, but not necessarily for young people. In parallel with that, the survey data paints a picture where feelings of support, control, autonomy, and attachment were all associated with emotional well-being. Importantly, links between emotional well-being and practical, material concerns were outweighed by positive identifications of community as close-knit and caring; and equally, by negative identifications as intrusive and constraining, where the latter was felt more strongly by young women. Certainly, beliefs about future employment and educational opportunities were also linked to well-being, but that was over and above, and independently of, affective and social aspects of community life. Additionally, migration intentions were also bound up with sense of self and well-being, and with feelings about community life; and links between thoughts about leaving and community life as controlling and constraining were, yet again, felt more strongly by young women. Thus, gender was a key dimension affecting young people's feelings about their communities with significant implications for well-being, and out-migration. The study illustrates the importance of understanding the experiences young people have of growing up in rural areas, and how they evaluate those experiences: particularly, how life in rural communities matters for young people's well-being; and especially, for young women.

Mobile Lives, Immobile Representations

Transfers ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raili Nugin
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Nonprofit Organization ◽  
Rural Life ◽  
Cultural Constructs ◽  
Short Films ◽  
The Future ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Cultural Constructions

The article looks at how cultural constructs of “urban” and “rural” are used in policy measures. The question is opened by analyzing twenty-five short films submitted for the competition Once upon a Time in Our Village organized by the Estonian Ministry of Agriculture and Just Film (a nonprofit organization). The competition calls for young people to “depict the future and possibilities of rural life.” The aim was to prevent out-migration of young people from the rural areas. As the data show, the films echo cultural constructions that depict the rural as opposed to the urban: traditional, quiet, and a haven of the national past. The future and technological possibilities are something that are constructed as an urban phenomenon, and thus, not present in the films.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Romania’s Internal Migration. Findings from the 1977, 1992, 2002 and 2011 Censuses

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-220
Author(s):  
Constanţa Mihăescu ◽  
Adrian Otoiu ◽  
Erika Marin ◽  
Ileana Niculescu-Aron
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Internal Migration ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Migration Flow ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Migration Rates ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Internal Migrants

Abstract Although internal migration has been rather overlooked, both in terms of its magnitude and importance, its ability to reflect socio-economic changes is providing useful insights on the evolution of the Romanian society over the last decades. Based on the analysis of census microdata over the past 4 censuses, some major shifts in the magnitude and patterns in internal migration reveal the fact that characteristics of internal migrants have not only mirrored, but also preceded the changes observed for the total population. Among the most important developments revealed by our analysis have been a slight decrease in migration incidence since 1992, an increase in migrants residing in rural areas, especially in the South region, and a higher incidence among women, perhaps as a counterweight for higher international migration rates among men. Internal migrants’ age profile shows that they are 11 years older than the total population, up from a gap of only 6 years in 1977. Although they tend to be relatively more educated, their advantage has been on a declining trend and, contrary to common perceptions, are less likely to be single. At the county level, data reveals diverging patterns triggered by post-communist development, among which deindustrialization of some countries and strong international migration. These findings help portray the socio-economic changes as revealed by the analysis of census data, and provide any additional feedback to the annual internal migration flow estimates, by assessing the stock of those who moved from their birthplace, and showing how net internal migration patterns have morphed over time, both reflecting and effecting demographic and socioeconomic evolutions of the Romanian society1.

scholarly journals MODERN MIGRATION SITUATION IN KRASNODAR REGION

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 291-295
Author(s):  
T.T. Тarasova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Determining Factor ◽  
Total Migration

t. Based on statistical data, the article analyzes the transformation of the migration movement of the population of the Krasnodar Territory in the context of natural decline and a pandemic of coronavirus infection. It is shown that in the region, as well as in Russia as a whole, there is a deterioration in demographic development. Due to the excess of the death rate over the birth rate in the region, the natural population decline resumed in 2017, the volume of which increased 8.5 times by 2020. The demographic indicators worsened especially noticeably in 2020, primarily in relation to the mortality rate of the population, the level of which has sharply increased. Despite the deteriorating demographic situation, the number of residents of the Kuban continued to increase, while in the Russian Federation in recent years the absolute population began to decline. An analysis of the components of population change showed that the determining factor in the increase in the number of Kuban residents was migration gain, which not only compensated for the natural decline in the population, but also ensured an increase in the number of inhabitants of the region. It was revealed that significant changes took place in the migration movement of the Krasnodar Territory in the analyzed period: the intensity of migration processes has noticeably decreased, and in recent years, the volume of net migration has also decreased. The region’s contribution to the total migration gains of the Southern Federal District has significantly decreased - in 2020 the region’s share in the total migration growth of the district amounted to only 31.6% versus 78.9% in 2017. The decrease in the volume of net migration was mainly due to a decrease in the number of arrivals to the region, which is not least due to quarantine measures to combat the pandemic

scholarly journals Internal Migration in Germany, 1995-2010: New Insights into East-West Migration and Re-urbanisation

2014 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikola Sander
Keyword(s):  
Internal Migration ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
East German ◽  
Regional Population ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
East West

Over the last two decades, patterns of internal migration in Germany have been discussed under the headings of East-West movements and sub- and re-urbanisation. This paper argues that the intense scientific and public debate that ignited about the possible causes and consequences of internal migration should be based on a clear understanding of how internal migration flows impact on regional population change. Using the German Internal Migration (GIM) database, a unique new dataset that holds annual interregional migration counts drawn from the population register for 397 regions with temporally consistent boundaries, this paper aims to provide a more comprehensive picture of the spatial structure of inter-county migration in Germany and how it has changed over the period 1995-2010. To reduce the complexity of the county-level flow data and to facilitate the identification of patterns and trends, county-to-county flows were analysed using a spatial framework of 132 “analytical regions”. The results show that the intensity of migration between East German regions has been higher than East-West migration throughout the period, suggesting that the former type of migration has a stronger impact on rural population decline than commonly believed in the literature. Following a strong suburbanisation pattern in the 1990s, over the last decade, migration between counties in eastern Germany has resulted in a growing concentration of population in the cities of Berlin, Leipzig and Dresden. Increasing net migration gains were recorded by many urban cores across Germany. The trend was driven by both continuing in-migration of young adults in search for education and employment, and by a cessation of the long-term trend of family out-migration to the cities’ suburban and non-metropolitan hinterlands.

scholarly journals Population Change and Income Inequality in Rural America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaclyn L.W. Butler ◽  
Grace Wildermuth ◽  
Brian C. Thiede ◽  
David L. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The United States ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the effects of population growth and decline on county-level income inequality in the United States from 1980 to 2016. Findings from previous research have shown that income inequality is positively associated with population change, but these studies have not explicitly tested for differences between the impacts of population growth and decline. Understanding the implications of population dynamics is particularly important given that many rural areas are characterized by population decline. We analyze county-level data (n=15,375 county-decades) from the Decennial Census and American Community Survey (ACS), applying fixed effects models to estimate the respective effects of population growth and decline on income inequality, to identify the processes that mediate the links between population change and inequality, and to assess whether these effects are moderated by county-level economic and demographic characteristics. We find evidence that population decline is associated with increased levels of income inequality relative to counties experiencing stable and high rates of population growth. This relationship remains robust across a variety of model specifications, including models that account for changes in counties’ employment, sociodemographic, and ethnoracial composition. We also find that the relationship between income inequality and population change varies by metropolitan status, baseline level of inequality, and region.

scholarly journals International workshop on the future of community child healthcare

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachi Grossman ◽  
Boaz Porter ◽  
Joseph Meyerovitch ◽  
Lisa Rubin ◽  
Jacob Kuint ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chief Executive Officers ◽  
International Workshop ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Academic Advancement ◽  
The Future ◽  
Child Healthcare ◽  
Executive Officers ◽  
International Experts

AbstractIncreasing numbers of children with developmental, emotional, and psychosocial issues require adaptation of the services provided by pediatricians in the community. An international workshop that took place in Israel on June 3–4, 2019, addressed this need. Local policy makers and international experts discussed the following topics: (1) the future of training in community pediatrics; (2) enhancing the prestige of the community pediatrician; (3) development of management and research skills; (4) academic advancement within community pediatrics; (5) the future content of community pediatric practice; (6) visit length and community pediatricians’ reimbursement; (7) developing the collaborative model of care in community pediatrics and (8) integrating child healthcare. The meeting provided a venue to understand the challenges and to formulate recommendations to policymakers. A key target highlighted was the increased exposure of all pediatric residents to community pediatrics. This gained the support of the Chief Executive Officers of all four Health Funds in Israel. This document provides a synopsis of the topics addressed and suggested recommendations.

scholarly journals Questioning the Role of Tourism as an Engine for Resilience: The Role of Accessibility and Economic Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan-Constantin Ibanescu ◽  
Mihail Eva ◽  
Alexandra Gheorghiu
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Spatial Accessibility ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Relevant Topic ◽  
Valid Evidence ◽  
Peripheral Areas ◽  
The Impact

During the last decades, tourism activities were promoted by local and regional policy-makers as a universal solution for rural areas’ suffering from massive depopulation, technological delay, or economical struggles. A large debate flourished in the literature on whether and to what extent tourism could play a role in supporting rural localities. Some valid evidence was brought by researchers backing the cure-all role of tourism, as well as by those who criticized the limited, or even negative, impact of tourism on rural areas. However, following the economic crisis of 2008, the attention switched to a newer and more relevant topic: Does tourism increase the resilience performance of rural areas? Our paper tries to answer this question by focusing on both economic and demographic resilience, which are the most sensitive sectors during an important shock. Following a detailed territorial breakdown according to a twofold typology (spatial accessibility and number of employees), correlations were used to determine the impact of tourism activities on building resilience for each type of rural territory. The results indicated a positive effect of tourism activities upon economic and demographic resilience performance in highly accessible rural areas, while in peripheral areas, the impact was insignificant. This paper provides new insights into the various roles that tourism plays in rural areas and offers suggestions for local policy-makers.

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