scholarly journals Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. e1009326
Author(s):  
Mattia Mazzoli ◽  
Emanuele Pepe ◽  
David Mateo ◽  
Ciro Cattuto ◽  
Laetitia Gauvin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Infected Area ◽  
Local Impact ◽  
The Impact

Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Eduardo Borges ◽  
Leonardo Souto Ferreira ◽  
Silas Poloni ◽  
Ângela Maria Bagattini ◽  
Caroline Franco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Among the various non–pharmaceutical interventions implemented in response to the Covid–19 pandemic during 2020, school closures have been in place in several countries to reduce infection transmission. Nonetheless, the significant short and long–term impacts of prolonged suspension of in–person classes is a major concern. There is still considerable debate around the best timing for school closure and reopening, its impact on the dynamics of disease transmission, and its effectiveness when considered in association with other mitigation measures. Despite the erratic implementation of mitigation measures in Brazil, school closures were among the first measures taken early in the pandemic in most of the 27 states in the country. Further, Brazil delayed the reopening of schools and stands among the countries in which schools remained closed for the most prolonged period in 2020. To assess the impact of school reopening and the effect of contact tracing strategies in rates of Covid–19 cases and deaths, we model the epidemiological dynamics of disease transmission in 3 large urban centers in Brazil under different epidemiological contexts. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings – school, home, work, and elsewhere, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening. Our model shows that reopening schools results in a non–linear increase of reported Covid-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. While low rates of within[&ndash]school transmission resulted in small effects on disease incidence (cases/100,000 pop), intermediate or high rates can severely impact disease trends resulting in escalating rates of new cases even if other interventions remain unchanged. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects of reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Our results suggest that policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. Also, although contact tracing strategies are essential to prevent new infections and outbreaks within school environments, our data suggest that they are alone not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission in the context of school reopening in settings with high and sustained transmission rates.

scholarly journals Impact of insecticide resistance in Anopheles arabiensis on malaria incidence and prevalence in Sudan and the costs of mitigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (52) ◽  
pp. E11267-E11275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hmooda Toto Kafy ◽  
Bashir Adam Ismail ◽  
Abraham Peter Mnzava ◽  
Jonathan Lines ◽  
Mogahid Shiekh Eldin Abdin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Insecticide Resistance ◽  
Pyrethroid Resistance ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Malaria Vectors ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Additional Protection ◽  
The Impact

Insecticide-based interventions have contributed to ∼78% of the reduction in the malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000. Insecticide resistance in malaria vectors could presage a catastrophic rebound in disease incidence and mortality. A major impediment to the implementation of insecticide resistance management strategies is that evidence of the impact of resistance on malaria disease burden is limited. A cluster randomized trial was conducted in Sudan with pyrethroid-resistant and carbamate-susceptible malaria vectors. Clusters were randomly allocated to receive either long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) alone or LLINs in combination with indoor residual spraying (IRS) with a pyrethroid (deltamethrin) insecticide in the first year and a carbamate (bendiocarb) insecticide in the two subsequent years. Malaria incidence was monitored for 3 y through active case detection in cohorts of children aged 1 to <10 y. When deltamethrin was used for IRS, incidence rates in the LLIN + IRS arm and the LLIN-only arm were similar, with the IRS providing no additional protection [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36–3.0; P = 0.96)]. When bendiocarb was used for IRS, there was some evidence of additional protection [interaction IRR = 0.55 (95% CI: 0.40–0.76; P < 0.001)]. In conclusion, pyrethroid resistance may have had an impact on pyrethroid-based IRS. The study was not designed to assess whether resistance had an impact on LLINs. These data alone should not be used as the basis for any policy change in vector control interventions.

scholarly journals Oscillations in USA COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Data reflect societal factors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aviv Bergman ◽  
Yehonatan Sella ◽  
Peter Agre ◽  
Arturo Casadevall
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Reporting Practices ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Us ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses

The COVID-19 pandemic currently in process differs from other infectious disease calamities that have previously plagued humanity in the vast amount of information that is produces each day, which includes daily estimates of the disease incidence and mortality data. Apart from providing actionable information to public health authorities on the trend of the pandemic, the daily incidence reflects the process of disease in a susceptible population and thus reflects the pathogenesis of COVID-19, the public health response and diagnosis and reporting. Both daily new cases and daily mortality data in the US exhibit periodic oscillatory patterns. By analyzing NYC and LA testing data, we demonstrate that this oscillation in the number of cases can be strongly explained by the daily variation in testing. This seems to rule out alternative hypotheses such as increased infections on certain days of the week as driving this oscillation. Similarly, we show that the apparent oscillation in mortality in the US data is mostly an artifact of reporting, which disappears in datasets that record death by episode date, such as the NYC and LA datasets. Periodic oscillations in COVID-19 incidence and mortality data reflect testing and reporting practices and contingencies. Thus, these contingencies should be considered first prior to suggesting social or biological mechanisms.

Cottage and Squatter Settlement and Encroachment on Common Waste in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries: Some Evidence from Shropshire

2014 ◽  
pp. 11-32
Author(s):  
James P. Bowen
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Poor Relief ◽  
Regional Studies ◽  
Wood Pasture ◽  
The Everyday ◽  
Local Impact ◽  
Squatter Settlement ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

This article examines the local impact of cottage building on common wasteland in the wood-pasture countryside of the county of Shropshire in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Based on the study of written documentary records, contemporary accounts and original maps, it examines the process of cottage building on commons in both rural agrarian and industrial contexts, exploring case studies of cottage settlement in a range of localities within Shropshire including forest, heathland, woodland and wetland areas. It outlines the character of the cottage economy and considers the regulation of cottages in relation to statute law concerning cottage building, poor relief and vagrancy. It complements the existing body of local and regional studies of cottage building, providing insight into the everyday lives of cottagers who built their cottages and encroached on common land, relying on commons access for their survival. Despite the informal existence of cottages and the fragile lives of those who inhabited them, it argues that it is possible to recover a picture of the impact of cottage settlement at a local level, and its significance as part of the development of the landscape.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on Tuberculosis Disease Incidence and Mortality in India

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne F. Awad ◽  
Peijue Huangfu ◽  
Houssein H. Ayoub ◽  
Fiona Pearson ◽  
Soha R. Dargham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tuberculosis Disease

scholarly journals Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne F Awad ◽  
Peijue Huangfu ◽  
Houssein H Ayoub ◽  
Fiona Pearson ◽  
Soha R Dargham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tuberculosis Disease

scholarly journals State-level impact of social distancing and testing on COVID-19 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weihsueh A. Chiu ◽  
Rebecca Fischer ◽  
Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Social distancing measures have been implemented in the United States (US) since March 2020, to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. However, by mid-May most states began relaxing these measures to support the resumption of economic activity, even as disease incidence continued to increase in many states. To evaluate the impact of relaxing social distancing restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control in the US, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths from March to June 20th, 2020, using Bayesian methods. We used this model to evaluate the impact of reopening, social distancing, testing, contact tracing, and case isolation on the COVID-19 epidemic in each state. We found that using stay-at-home orders, most states were able to curtail their COVID-19 epidemic curve by reducing and achieving an effective reproductive number below 1. But by June 20th, 2020, only 19 states and the District of Columbia were on track to curtail their epidemic curve with a 75% confidence, at current levels of reopening. Of the remaining 31 states, 24 may have to double their current testing and/or contact tracing rate to curtail their epidemic curve, and seven need to further restrict social contact by 25% in addition to doubling their testing and contact tracing rates. When social distancing restrictions are being eased, greater state-level testing and contact tracing capacity remains paramount for mitigating the risk of large-scale increases in cases and deaths.

scholarly journals Sedentary behavior after stroke: A new target for therapeutic intervention

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Morton ◽  
Claire Fitzsimons ◽  
Jennifer Hall ◽  
David Clarke ◽  
Anne Forster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sedentary Behavior ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Sedentary Behaviors ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Research Priority ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Implementing Strategies ◽  
Improve Health

Over the last 10 years, evidence has emerged that too much sedentary time (e.g. time spent sitting down) has adverse effects on health, including an increased risk of cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality. A considerable amount of media attention has been given to the topic. The current UK activity guidelines recommend that all adults should minimize the amount of time spent being sedentary for extended periods. How best to minimize sedentary behavior is a focus of ongoing research. Understanding the impact of sedentary behaviors on the health of people with stroke is vital as they are some of the most sedentary individuals in society. Implementing strategies to encourage regular, short breaks in sedentary behaviors has potential to improve health outcomes after stroke. Intervention work already conducted with adults and older adults suggests that sedentary behaviors can be changed. A research priority is to explore the determinants of sedentary behavior in people with stroke and to develop tailored interventions.

Fish farming in Denmark: environmental impact of regulative legislation

1995 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 73-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. Iversen
Keyword(s):  
Organic Matter ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Aquatic Environment ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Fish Farming ◽  
Fish Farms ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Local Impact ◽  
The Impact

The main environmental problems associated with fish farming in Denmark are attributable to the dam, the “dead reach” and nutrient and organic matter discharge. The environmental regulation of fish farming in Denmark started with the Environmental Protection Act of 1974, the Statutory Order of 1985 forbidding wet feed, and the Action Plan on the Aquatic Environment of 1987. In the case of freshwater fish farms, the latter was implemented through the measures stipulated in the 1989 Statutory Order on Fish Farms. The impact of Danish legislative measures to reduce and regulate the environmental effects of freshwater fish farms can be summarized as follows: - the number of fish farms has been reduced from about 800 in 1974 to about 500 at present; - production has tripled since 1974 and has been stable since 1989; - a change from wet to dry feed has reduced the environmental impact of the farms; - the national goals of the Action Plan on the Aquatic Environment of 1987 for reducing fish farm discharges of organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus have been fulfilled. The main remaining problems are that: - the local impact of fish farms on downstream stream quality is still much too high in about 15% of cases; - the problem of the passage of migrating invertebrates and fish is still unsolved at some farms; - the problems posed by “dead reaches” are still unsolved. It is concluded that sustainable fish farming is possible in Denmark, but with the present technology production will have to be significantly reduced.

Impact of Elected Women Representatives of Panchayati Raj in Physical and Financial and Business Assets Development of Rural Women: A Study among the Rural Women’s of Tiruvannamalai District, Tamil Nadu[1]

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalaichelvi Sivaraman ◽  
Rengasamy Stalin
Keyword(s):  
Rural Women ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Rural And Urban Areas ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Panchayati Raj

This research paper is the part of Research Project entitled “Impact of Elected Women Representatives in the Life and Livelihood of the Women in Rural Areas: With Special Reference to Tiruvannamalai District, Tamil Nadu” funded by University of Madras under UGC-UPE Scheme.The 73rd and 74th amendments of the Constitution of India were made by the government to strengthen the position of women and to create a local-level legal foundation for direct democracy for women in both rural and urban areas. The representation for women in local bodies through reservation policies amendment in Constitution of India has stimulated the political participation of women in rural areas. However, when it’s comes to the argument of whether the women reservation in Panchayati Raj helps or benefits to the life and livelihood development of women as a group? The answer is hypothetical because the studies related to the impact of women representatives of Panchayati Raj in the life and livelihood development of women was very less. Therefore, to fill the gap in existing literature, the present study was conducted among the rural women of Tiruvannamalai district to assess the impact of elected women representatives in the physical and financial and business development of the women in rural areas. The findings revealed that during the last five years because of the women representation in their village Panjayati Raj, the Physical Asset of the rural women were increased or developed moderately (55.8%) and Highly (23.4%) and the Financial and Business Asset of the rural women were increased or developed moderately (60.4%) and Highly (18.7%).

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