scholarly journals A network autoregressive model with GARCH effects and its applications

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0255422
Author(s):  
Shih-Feng Huang ◽  
Hsin-Han Chiang ◽  
Yu-Jun Lin
Keyword(s):  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Joint Effects ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Return Dynamics ◽  
Global Stock

In this study, a network autoregressive model with GARCH effects, denoted by NAR-GARCH, is proposed to depict the return dynamics of stock market indices. A GARCH filter is employed to marginally remove the GARCH effects of each index, and the NAR model with the Granger causality test and Pearson’s correlation test with sharp price movements is used to capture the joint effects caused by other indices with the most updated market information. The NAR-GARCH model is designed to depict the joint effects of nonsynchronous multiple time series in an easy-to-implement and effective way. The returns of 20 global stock indices from 2006 to 2020 are employed for our empirical investigation. The numerical results reveal that the NAR-GARCH model has satisfactory performance in both fitting and prediction for the 20 stock indices, especially when a market index has strong upward or downward movements.

scholarly journals THE GARCH MODEL VOLATILITY OF SHARIA STOCKS ASSOCIATED CAUSALITY WITH MARKET INDEX

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-28
Author(s):  
Endang Soeryana Hasbullah ◽  
Endang Rusyaman ◽  
Alit Kartiwa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Garch Model ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility of Islamic stocks related to the causality of the composite stock price index (CSPI). The aim is to investigate the causality of several levels of stock returns with the movement of the CSPI, and determine its volatility as a measure of risk. To determine the causality relationship is done by using the granger causality test method, with Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling. Whereas to determine the volatility is done using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastisiy (GARCH) model approach. The results of the causality test show that there is a direct relationship that affects and is influenced by the CSPI, and the relationship that affects each other between the company's stock market and the movement of the CSPI. While the volatility follows the GARCH model (1, 1). Based on the results of this study are expected to be used as consideration in making investment decisions in the analyzed stocks.

scholarly journals International portfolio diversification: United States and south Asian equity markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizwan Mushtaq ◽  
Zulfiqar Shah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Market Index ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short And Long Term

This paper explores the dynamic liaison between US and three developing South Asian equity markets in short and long term. To gauge the long-term relationship, we applied Johansen co-integration procedure as all the representative indices are found to be non-stationary at level. The findings illustrate that the US equity market index exhibits a reasonably different movement over time in contrast to the three developing equity markets under consideration. However, the Granger-causality test divulge that the direction of causality scamper from US equity market to the three South Asian markets. It further indicates that within the three developing equity markets the direction of causality emanates from Bombay stock market to Karachi and Colombo. Overall, the results of the study suggest that the American investors can get higher returns through international diversification into developing equity markets, while the US stock market would also be a gainful upshot for South Asian investors.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Based on VAR-DCC-GARCH Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03018
Author(s):  
Xuhang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility

Based on the daily data of Shibor and nominal exchange rate from 2006 to 2019, this paper constructs VAR model and uses Granger causality test and impulse response model to analyze the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and interest rate. Based on the DCC-GARCH model, this paper analyzes the correlation between exchange rate volatility and interest rate volatility, and concludes that there is a weak negative correlation between exchange rate and interest rate. Both exchange rate and monetary policy will have an important impact on China’s economic environment, so it is of great practical significance to study the joint impact of exchange rate and monetary policy.

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation of Islamic Calendar Effect in Global Islamic Equity Indices

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Nadeem Qureshi ◽  
Yasra Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Equity Indices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Stock

This study aims to explore the effect of Islamic Months specifically Ramadan and Zil-Haj on the stock returns and volatility of the Islamic Global Equity Indices. For the said purpose, the data on three Global Equity Islamic Indices including; Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index, MSCI ACWI Islamic Index, and S&P Global BMI Shariah Index are collected from 5th Jan 2011 (1st Muharram 1432 A.H.) to 12th November 2015 (30th Muharram 1437 A.H.). Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and GARCH (1,1) regression methods are applied to analyze the impact of the Islamic months on global stock returns and volatility respectively. Empirical results reveal significant negative impact of Zil-Haj on returns and volatility of Islamic Global Equity Indices. However, no significant impact of Ramadan on returns and volatility of Islamic Global Equity Indices are revealed. These findings will be fascinating and of utmost interest amidst the researchers, investors and practitioners.

scholarly journals A multivariate regime-switching GARCH model with an application to global stock market and real estate equity returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Haas ◽  
Ji-Chun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Simple Recursion ◽  
Global Stock

AbstractWe consider a multivariate Markov-switching GARCH model which allows for regime-specific volatility dynamics, leverage effects, and correlation structures. Conditions for stationarity and expressions for the moments of the process are derived. A Lagrange Multiplier test against misspecification of the within-regime correlation dynamics is proposed, and a simple recursion for multi-step-ahead conditional covariance matrices is deduced. We use this methodology to model the dynamics of the joint distribution of global stock market and real estate equity returns. The empirical analysis highlights the importance of the conditional distribution in Markov-switching time series models. Specifications with Student’stinnovations dominate their Gaussian counterparts both in- and out-of-sample. The dominating specification appears to be a two-regime Student’stprocess with correlations which are higher in the turbulent (high-volatility) regime.

scholarly journals GLOBALISASI PASAR MODAL DUNIA DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
R Adisetiawan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Global Capital ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Cointegration Tests

This study aims to prove causality, cointegration and the influence of global capital markets with a market capital of Indonesia for the period 2001-2016 with a Granger causality test statistics, cointegration tests and Multiple Regression testing. These results prove that the 99% confidence interval occurred a long term relationship (cointegration) and the significant influence of global market indices with the Indonesia capital market index (CSPI) in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2001 to 2016, it indicates that Indonesia's economy has been integrated with global capital markets with varying levels of integration, but is causally there is only one country that has a causal relationship with the Indonesian stock market index (CSPI), the Taiwan stock market index (TWSE).Keywords: Capital Market Integration

scholarly journals Effect of Oil Prices Fluctuation on Stock Indices-Comparative Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 80-89
Author(s):  
Ahmed J. Al-Dahlaki ◽  
Ghadhanfer A. Hussein ◽  
Mohammed S. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
The Relationship

The study aims to examine the nature of the relationship and the effect of oil price fluctuations on stock indices in the financial markets of exporting and importing countries. For achieving that, the price of Brent crude oil was chosen as an index from the stock markets in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq as oilexporting countries. While the market index was chosen from the markets of New York, Shanghai and Nikkei as an oil importer. The study came out with a set of conclusions and recommendations. The most important is that the degree of response of stock indices to fluctuations in oil prices was greater in exporting countries than in importing countries.

scholarly journals BEHAVIOUR OF FINANCIAL MARKETS DURING THE SUBPRIME CRISIS

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 2657-2672
Author(s):  
SAMOUT Ammar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
United State ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
The Relationship

The objective of this article is to highlight the nature of the relationship between several stock markets (France, the great Britain, Germany, and United States). The behavior of those facing the subprime crisis that took place in United State markets we tried to analyze in August 2007. Empirically to make think back to these questions, we relied primarily on testing correlation. The result of this test demonstrates the significant increase in the correlation between stock markets: US, French, Germany and Britain during the period of the crisis. We interpret this increase as evidence of contagion. Secondly, it was based on the theory of co-integration. The results of the co-integration tests show the existence of three co-integration relationships between the most stock markets. The existence of co-integration relationship is evidence of contagion and integration of stock markets. Thirdly, we tried to apply the causality test between stock indices. The result of this test shows the existence of several causality between these indices confirming the importance of contagion during the crisis.

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