scholarly journals KETIDAKPASTIAN DALAM PEMODELAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM

OSEANA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-53
Author(s):  
Ahmad Bayhaqi

THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING. Climate in the Earth has changed over the periods and will be estimated to give the a significant impact for environment in the future. Climate prediction using a simulation model, as a tool to predict the future climate and it requires the high quantitative skills and technology, has showed the significant improvement. However, the climate model depends on the input variable and the result may be inaccurate because its biases and uncertainties. Information of the uncertainties in the climate model can determine the modification in climate change mitigation and show the way how to adapt with the inevitable changes.

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. e1007000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Bury ◽  
Chris T. Bauch ◽  
Madhur Anand

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.


Author(s):  
Komukama Grace

It is undisputable that tourism has grown since the last decades and is the main source of foreign exchange for most developing countries. This growth is partially attributable to technological advancements in the aviation industry which has eased transportation from one region to another. However tourism contribution to carbon dioxide emissions through air transport is alarming with the sector contributing 40% of the overall carbon print and therefore if immediate remedies are not undertaken the earth system may go in a state where it may never recover. The aim of the paper therefore is to point out how behavioral change is the immediate solution for reduction in climate change emissions especially those originating from the aviation industry, since reliance on the technological advancement is mythical. Content analysis was used to conduct the study by using the crucial keywords in three online databases and 17,966 results were analyzed. Findings indicate that behavioral change is the immediate remedy for climate change mitigation. This is coupled with the fact that most air customers are living in denial and yet governments and the aviation industry lack commitment to controlling climate change. Therefore, if any tangible reduction is to be achieved in climate change emanating from aviation industry, there is need for realistic measures from both the governments and the aviation sector in order to encourage individual behavioral changes.


2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianqian Zhou ◽  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
Maoyi Huang

Abstract. As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nektarios Chrysoulakis ◽  
Zina Mitraka ◽  
Mattia Marconcini ◽  
David Ludlow ◽  
Zaheer Khan ◽  
...  

<p>Resilience has become an important necessity for cities, particularly in the face of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation actions that enhance the resilience of cities need to be based on a sound understanding and quantification of the drivers of urban transformation and settlement structures, human and urban vulnerability, and of local and global climate change. Copernicus, as the means for the establishment of a European capacity for Earth Observation (EO), is based on continuously evolving Core Services. A major challenge for the EO community is the innovative exploitation of the Copernicus products in dealing with urban sustainability towards increasing urban resilience. Due to the multidimensional nature of urban resilience, to meet this challenge, information from more than one Copernicus Core Services, namely the Land Monitoring Service (CLMS), the Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), the Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Emergency Management Service (EMS), is needed. Furthermore, to address urban resilience, the urban planning community needs spatially disaggregated environmental information at local (neighbourhood) scale. Such information, for all parameters needed, is not yet directly available from the Copernicus Core Services mentioned above, while several elements - data and products - from contemporary satellite missions consist valuable tools for retrieving urban environmental parameters at local scale. The H2020-Space project CURE (Copernicus for Urban Resilience in Europe) is a joint effort of 10 partners from 9 countries that synergistically exploits the above Copernicus Core Services to develop an umbrella cross-cutting application for urban resilience, consisting of individual cross-cutting applications for climate change adaptation/mitigation, energy and economy, as well as healthy cities and social environments, at several European cities. These cross-cutting applications cope with the required scale and granularity by also integrating or exploiting third-party data, in-situ observations and modelling. CURE uses DIAS (Data and Information Access Services) to develop a system capable of supporting operational applications and downstream services across Europe. The CURE system hosts the developed cross-cutting applications, enabling its incorporation into operational services in the future. CURE is expected to increase the value of Copernicus Core Services for future emerging applications in the domain of urban resilience, exploiting also the improved data quality, coverage and revisit times of the future satellite missions. Thus, CURE will lead to more efficient routine urban planning activities with obvious socioeconomic impact, as well as to more efficient resilience planning activities related to climate change mitigation and adaptation, resulting in improved thermal comfort and air quality, as well as in enhanced energy efficiency. Specific CURE outcomes could be integrated into the operational Copernicus service portfolio. The added value and benefit expected to emerge from CURE is related to transformed urban governance and quality of life, because it is expected to provide improved and integrated information to city administrators, hence effectively supporting strategies for resilience planning at local and city scales, towards the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda for Europe.</p>


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Woo Lee ◽  
Suryun Ham ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Kei Yoshimura ◽  
Minsu Joh

This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Cox

Abstract Purpose of Review Feedbacks between CO2-induced climate change and the carbon cycle are now routinely represented in the Earth System Models (ESMs) that are used to make projections of future climate change. The inconclusion of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in climate projections is an important advance, but has added a significant new source of uncertainty. This review assesses the potential for emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties associated with climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Recent Findings The emergent constraint technique involves using the full ensemble of models to find an across-ensemble relationship between an observable feature of the Earth System (such as a trend, interannual variation or change in seasonality) and an uncertain aspect of the future. Examples focussing on reducing uncertainties in future atmospheric CO2 concentration, carbon loss from tropical land under warming and CO2 fertilization of mid- and high-latitude photosynthesis are exemplars of these different types of emergent constraints. Summary The power of emergent constraints is that they use the enduring range in model projections to reduce uncertainty in the future of the real Earth System, but there are also risks that indiscriminate data-mining, and systematic model errors could yield misleading constraints. A hypothesis-driven theory-led approach can overcome these risks and also reveal the true promise of emergent constraints—not just as ways to reduce uncertainty in future climate change but also to catalyse advances in our understanding of the Earth System.


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