scholarly journals CAP post 2022 scenarios and income impacts – a case analysis for selected typical farms in Slovenia

2021 ◽  
Vol 117 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Jaka ŽGAJNAR ◽  
Luka JUVANČIČ ◽  
Stane KAVČIČ ◽  
Emil ERJAVEC

Assessment based on representative farms is an established approach in the modern assessment of the effects of changes in agricultural policy. In line with previous CAP reforms, we can expect income redistribution impacts also with the implementation of the legislative and financial framework of the CAP for the next period. This paper discusses a scenario analysis using the farm model. The model is based on linear programming, which enables to address various technological challenges at farm level. We formed the scenarios for the analysis following the example of the scenarios contained in the impact assessment that the European Commission prepared for the CAP after 2020. The analysis involves selected farm types from selected sectors. The results suggest that the expected reduction in the envelope will generally lead to lower farm-level revenues from CAP direct payments. Consequently, economic performance will deteriorate, what is likely to be amplified in some sectors by the abolition of historical payments. The range of consequences at farm level will likely be considerable, especially for sectors and production types with a high share of CAP payments in the structure of total farm income. In certain sectors, however, there is even an improvement regarding the current situation.

Author(s):  
Anna Agata Martikainen

The goal of the research is to assess the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy on the three dimensions of resilience of farming sectors: robustness, adaptability and transformability. The chosen subject of the research was Polish horticulture and the examined period was the financial framework 2014-2020. The research was based on qualitative data analysis, including policy documents analysis and the focus group research. The results showed that the level of instruments and the CAP is more focused on robustness than on the level of goals, where there is more balance between robustness and adaptability. On both a goal and instruments level, transformability is the least supported from all three resilience capabilities. Taking the challenges of the horticulture sector into account, the CAP does not sufficiently answer the economic challenges of the sector. Overall, robustness, although supported by the CAP, could be supported much more effectively, if the implementation of instruments were more intensified in the sector. Better implementation requires the improvement of educational activities. Social education is not sufficiently implemented to meet the needs of the sector. In addition, the CAP, on a moderate level, in the case of both goals and instruments, supports other characteristics of adaptability. For the horticulture farming sector, which is one of the least benefiting from direct payments, the support of adaptability and transformability seems to be vital for its development.


2003 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reimar von Alvensleben ◽  
Bernhard Brümmer ◽  
Ulrich Koester ◽  
Klaus Frohberg

AbstractReimar von Alvensleben asks in his article whether the “Agrarwende” in Germany could be a model for Europe. He argues that the new agricultural policy (the so-called “Agrarwende”), which has been proclaimed and implemented after the German BSE crisis 2000/2001, adds new problems to the already existing problems of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The strategy of improving international competitiveness of German agriculture by promoting the niche markets for organic food, animal-friendly produced food and regional food is unrealistic and thus neglecting the problem of improving the competitiveness of 85−90% of German agriculture. The criterion of ecological efficiency (How to achieve ecological goals at lowest costs?) is totally neglected in agricultural environmental policy. The strategy of implementing environmental and animal welfare standards by the market mechanism will not lead to reasonable results because of perception distortions of the consumers. As a consequence of distorted perception of food risks by politicians, cost of risk prevention are too high and/or safety and health standards in other less spectaculous areas are too low. For these reasons he concludes that the “Agrarwende” in Germany cannot be regarded as a model for Europe, especially not for Eastern Europe.Bernhard Brümmer and Ulrich Koester write in their paper that the Eastern Enlargement of the EU will have significant implications for governance of the CAP. The evolution of the CAP has led to a permanent increase in the intensity of regulation, although the rate of external protection has declined. Past experience - mainly revealed by the European Court of Auditors - has evidenced many irregularities and even fraud as a by-product of the CAP. Governance problems are due to badly designed policies, which demand control of even individual farms and give the member countries, administrative regions (which are supposed to implement the policies on the local scale) and the individual farms themselves incentives to breach the rules. In their view governance problems will certainly increase in the enlarged EU. The new member countries have a weaker administrative capacity and are subject to more corruption than the present EU countries. Adequate policy reaction should lead to fundamental changes of the CAP.Klaus Frohberg argues that in its Mid Term Review the EU-commission proposes a change in the most important instruments of the CAP. Direct payments and intervention prices belong to this group. In his paper the impact of these changes is discussed. Direct payments shall become decoupled from production and be summarised into a single payment to farmers. In addition, the right of these transfers shall be made tradable independent of a simultaneous exchange of land. With regard to the intervention prices they shall be reduced as to approach world market levels. Assuming that the Member States will confirm the proposals the CAP is expected to improve considerably. Allocation and transfer efficiency will increase, consumer welfare will go slightly up, taxpayers will be little if at all affected and the EU can defend its position in the negotiations of the ongoing WTO round. These advantages accrue to the current as well as to the new Member States. In spite of the improvements the CAP still needs to be enhanced in some areas such as the market organisation of sugar and milk.


Author(s):  
Alessandro Varacca ◽  
Giovanni Guastella ◽  
Stefano Pareglio ◽  
Paolo Sckokai

Abstract The impact of the European Union common agricultural policy direct payments on land prices has received substantial attention in recent years, leading to heterogeneous evidence of capitalisation for both coupled and decoupled payments. In this paper, we provide an extensive review of the empirical works addressing this issue econometrically and compare their results through a Bayesian meta-regression model, focussing on the impact of decoupling and its implementation schemes. We find that the introduction of decoupled payments increased the capitalisation rate, although the extent of this increment hinges on the implementation scheme adopted by the member state.


2002 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 529-545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest L. Molua

The risks associated with increasing climate variability pose technological and economic challenges to societies which are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. In Southwestern Cameroon the natural variability of rainfall and temperatures contribute to variability in agricultural production and food insecurity. This paper explores the impact of climate variability in Southwestern Cameroon on food availability. It examines farm household's vulnerability to food availability relating to climate, and reviews the interplay of climate, agriculture, and prospects for food security in the region. An econometric function directly relates farm income and precipitation, in order to statistically estimate the significance of farm-level adaptation methods. The results reveal that precipitation during growing and adaptation methods through changes in soil tillage and crop rotation practices have significant effects on farm returns. An essential precondition for food security and overall agricultural development in Southwestern Cameroon is a dynamic agricultural sector brought about both by steady increase in agricultural production and by greater efforts in farmer support, to enable farm households to take advantage of the opportunities and to minimize the negative impacts of climate variation on agriculture.


2015 ◽  
Vol 153 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. VOSOUGH AHMADI ◽  
S. SHRESTHA ◽  
S.G. THOMSON ◽  
A.P. BARNES ◽  
A.W. STOTT

SUMMARYThe latest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms could bring substantial changes to Scottish farming communities. Two major components of this reform package, an introduction of environmental measures into the Pillar 1 payments and a move away from historical farm payments towards regionalized area payments, would have a significant effect on altering existing support structures for Scottish farmers, as it would for similar farm types elsewhere in Europe where historic payments are used. An optimizing farm-level model was developed to explore how Scottish beef and sheep farms might be affected by the greening and flat rate payments under the current CAP reforms. Nine different types of beef and sheep farms were identified and detailed biophysical and financial farm-level data for these farm types were used to parameterize the model. Results showed that the greening measures of the CAP did not have much impact on net margins of most of the beef and sheep farm businesses, except for ‘Beef Finisher’ farm types where the net margins decreased by 3%. However, all farm types were better off adopting the greening measures than not qualifying for the greening payments through non-compliance with the measures. The move to regionalized farm payments increased the negative financial impact of greening on most of the farms but it was still substantially lower than the financial sacrifice of not adopting greening measures. Results of maximizing farm net margin, under a hypothetical assumption of excluding farm payments, showed that in most of the mixed (sheep and cattle) and beef suckler cattle farms the optimum stock numbers predicted by the model were lower than actual figures on farm. When the regionalized support payments were allocated to each farm, the proportion of the mixed farms that would increase their stock numbers increased whereas this proportion decreased for beef suckler farms and no impact was predicted in sheep farms. Also under the regionalized support payments, improvements in profitability were found in mixed farms and sheep farms. Some of the specialized beef suckler farms also returned a profit when CAP support was added.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Daniel M. Wambua ◽  
Bernard M. Gichimu ◽  
Samuel N. Ndirangu

Despite the increase in area under coffee in Kenya in the last decade, productivity has been on the decline. Numerous production technologies have been developed through on-station research but there has been limited on-farm research to assess the impact of these technologies at the farm level. On the other hand, smallholder farmers are endowed differently and this would positively or negatively affect the adoption of recommended technologies and hence coffee productivity. This study was carried out to evaluate the effects of socioeconomic factors and technology adoption on smallholder coffee productivity at the farm level. The study employed stratified random sampling where 376 farmers were randomly sampled from six cooperative societies which had been preselected using probability proportional to the size sampling technique. The effects of socioeconomic factors and technology adoption on coffee productivity were analyzed using the stochastic Cobb-Douglas production function. The study revealed that off-farm income, access to credit, type of land tenure, and land size had significant positive effects on coffee productivity. Therefore, coffee farmers should be encouraged to diversify their income sources and to embrace credit financing, as the government reviews land use policies to avail adequate agricultural land. The study further revealed that the adoption of recommended application rates of manure, fungicides, and pesticides had significant positive effects on coffee productivity. The adoption of these technologies should therefore be enhanced among small-scale farmers to improve coffee productivity at the farm level.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 40-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christilla Roederer-Rynning ◽  
Alan Matthews

Suppose we were in 2028: what would the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) look like then? Would it be significantly different from the policy we know today? How, and why? And to what extent would Brexit have catalyzed these changes? The CAP is one of the founding policies of the EU and a strategic lever to address critical 21st century challenges such as climate change and the rising demand for food at the global level. It also has an important role in Europe to address the growing urban-rural divide and its potentially destabilizing impact on European politics. In this article, we examine the impact of Brexit from a political-economic perspective emphasizing the multi-level context within which the CAP is embedded. As an EU member state, the UK found a way to partly accommodate the CAP to its needs even though this policy was a source of intense UK dissatisfaction with the EU. Post-Brexit, the budgetary and market implications of the UK’s departure may favour positions that support a return to a more traditional policy of farm income support. On the other hand, more radical farm policies in England and Wales could partly offset these effects by setting the agenda for continued CAP reform, if they are seen to be successful.


2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-126
Author(s):  
Pavel Ciaian ◽  
Kamel Louhichi ◽  
Angel Perni

This paper assesses the farm-level impacts of trade liberalisation and CAP removal across EU using IFM-CAP (Individual Farm Model for CAP Analysis). IFM-CAP is a static positive programming model developed to capture the full heterogeneity of EU farms in terms of feedback to policy representation and impacts. Simulation results show that a small set of farm-types experience an increase in income due to the improvement in prices and yields (e.g. farms specialised in granivores, milk and horticulture), while farms that are most CAP subsidy dependent (e.g. specialist cattle, specialist COP and small farms) lose income by more than 12% at aggregate EU level. As much as 77% of all farms lose income if CAP is removed, while the proportion of most income vulnerable farms almost doubles.


2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavlos Karanikolas ◽  
Stavros Zografakis

<p>This paper examines the incidence of income<br />inequality and poverty, and the impact of farm<br />income on inequality. A detailed typology of farm<br />households (FHs) is developed, based on Household<br />Budget Survey micro-data. Research findings<br />reveal enormous variations among households<br />with respect to income inequality and poverty.<br />While Marginal- and Pluriactive- FHs do not seem<br />to have an income problem, this is not the case<br />for Farm Households. Poverty is a widespread<br />phenomenon among Retired FHs. Farm income<br />and non-farm income generate a combined stabilization<br />effect, mitigating the overall inequality<br />within households. Policy implications of these<br />findings are discussed in the context of welfare<br />aspects of agricultural policy.</p>


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