The Effect Of Social Contacts On The Spreads Of Covid-19 In Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 233-242
Author(s):  
Mariatul Fadilah ◽  
Dewi Arsinta
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Education Levels

Introduction: Covid-19 is an infectious disease. Matrix that is often used to identify transmission of infectious diseases dynamics is Basic Reproduction Number (R0). R0 is influenced by 3 parameters there are transmissibility (τ), average contact (c) and duration of infectiousness (d). Transmissibility and duration of infectiousness are constant values. The value of R0 will fluctuate if the rate of human interaction varies. The value of social contact different in every country. In Indonesia, there are no studies that discuss the value of social contact. Therefore researchers aims to find out these values and determine their effect on the spread of Covid-19. Method: This research was a descriptive observational study. Aims of the study is evaluate the pattern of social contact associated with the spread of covid-19. Data was collected using POLYMOD questionnaire that distributed via google form. The research sample was Indonesian people who were reached by distributing questionnaires. The data obtained then analyzed using the SPSS program to find the frequency distribution, mean of social contact and logistic regression analysis. Results: From this study, 6464 contacts were obtained from 1032 respondents with average number of contacts 6.26 and R0 2.191. Conclusion: The higher of contact value the higher risk of transmission. The R0 value obtained is 2.191, so one infected person might be able to transmit it to two other people around them. Individuals who are most at risk for transmission is male with low education levels and students.

scholarly journals Household Members Do Not Contact Each Other at Random: Implications for Infectious Disease Modelling

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nele Goeyvaerts ◽  
Eva Santermans ◽  
Gail Potter ◽  
Andrea Torneri ◽  
Kim Van Kerckhove ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Household Contact ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Density ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Contact Networks ◽  
Epidemic Simulation ◽  
Household Members ◽  
Contact Survey

Airborne infectious diseases such as influenza are primarily transmitted from human to human by means of social contacts and thus easily spread within households. Epidemic models, used to gain insight in infectious disease spread and control, typically rely on the assumption of random mixing within households. Until now there was no direct empirical evidence to support this assumption. Here, we present the first social contact survey specifically designed to study contact networks within households. The survey was conducted in Belgium (Flanders and Brussels) in 2010-2011. We analyzed data from 318 households totaling 1266 individuals with household sizes ranging from 2 to 7 members. Exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) were fitted to the within-household contact networks to reveal the processes driving contact between household members, both on weekdays and weekends. The ERGMs showed a high degree of clustering and, specifically on weekdays, decreasing connectedness with increasing household size. Furthermore, we found that the odds of a contact between father and child is smaller than for any other pair except for older siblings. Epidemic simulation results suggest that within-household contact density is the main driver of differences in epidemic spread between complete and empirical-based household contact networks. The homogeneous mixing assumption may therefore be an adequate characterization of the within-household contact structure for the purpose of epidemic simulation. However, ignoring the contact density when inferring from an epidemic model will result in biased estimates of within-household transmission rates. Further research on the implementation of within-household contact networks in epidemic models is necessary.Significance StatementHouseholds have a pivotal role in the spread of airborne infectious diseases. Households are bridging units between schools and workplaces, and social contacts within households are frequent and intimate, allowing for rapid disease spread. Infectious disease models typically assume that members of a household contact each other randomly. Until now there was no direct empirical evidence to support this assumption. In this paper, we present the first social contact survey specifically designed to study contact networks within households with young children. We investigate which factors drive contacts between household members on one particular day by means of a statistical model. Our results suggest the importance of connectedness within households over heterogeneity in number of contacts.

scholarly journals Working while on a disability pension in Finland: Association of diagnosis and financial factors to employment

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (19_suppl) ◽  
pp. 74-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anu Polvinen ◽  
Mikko Laaksonen ◽  
Juha Rantala ◽  
Marjukka Hietaniemi ◽  
Jari Kannisto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Disability Pension ◽  
Paid Work ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Financial Factors ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Cent Sample

Aims: The aim of this study was to find out whether health and financial factors are associated with engagement in paid work during a disability pension. Methods: The data included a 10 per cent sample of Finns aged 20–62 years who were drawing earnings-related full or partial disability pension in 2012 ( n = 14,418). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios for working while on a full or partial disability pension. Results: Fourteen per cent of full disability pensioners and 76 per cent of partial disability pensioners were engaged in paid work. Full disability pensioners due to mental disorders were working less often than full disability pensioners due to other diseases. Partial disability pensioners due to cardiovascular diseases were working more than partial disability pensioners due to other diseases. More recent timing of disability pension was associated with working for both partial and full disability pensioners. Working while on disability pension was more common among those with higher education. Partial disability pensioners with average pension worked more often than those with high pension. Conclusions: By knowing the factors associated with working while on a disability pension, policies could be more efficiently allocated to encourage disability pensioners to take up work. One way would be to support disability pensioners with low education to work more. Another way to increase work among disability pensioners is to support the recently retired in working longer.

scholarly journals Modeling the effect of lockdown timing as a COVID-19 control measure in countries with differing social contacts

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Oraby ◽  
Michael G. Tyshenko ◽  
Jose Campo Maldonado ◽  
Kristina Vatcheva ◽  
Susie Elsaadany ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tunneling Effect ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Application Timing ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Absolute Effect

AbstractThe application, timing, and duration of lockdown strategies during a pandemic remain poorly quantified with regards to expected public health outcomes. Previous projection models have reached conflicting conclusions about the effect of complete lockdowns on COVID-19 outcomes. We developed a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model with eight states including the environment (SEAMHQRD-V), and derived a formula for the basic reproduction number, R0, for that model. Applying the $${R}_{0}$$ R 0 formula as a function in previously-published social contact matrices from 152 countries, we produced the distribution and four categories of possible $${R}_{0}$$ R 0 for the 152 countries and chose one country from each quarter as a representative for four social contact categories (Canada, China, Mexico, and Niger). The model was then used to predict the effects of lockdown timing in those four categories through the representative countries. The analysis for the effect of a lockdown was performed without the influence of the other control measures, like social distancing and mask wearing, to quantify its absolute effect. Hypothetical lockdown timing was shown to be the critical parameter in ameliorating pandemic peak incidence. More importantly, we found that well-timed lockdowns can split the peak of hospitalizations into two smaller distant peaks while extending the overall pandemic duration. The timing of lockdowns reveals that a “tunneling” effect on incidence can be achieved to bypass the peak and prevent pandemic caseloads from exceeding hospital capacity.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effect of Lockdown Timing as a COVID-19 Control Measure in Countries with Differing Social Contacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Oraby ◽  
Michael G Tyshenko ◽  
Jose Campo Maldonado ◽  
Kristina Vatcheva ◽  
Susie Elsaadany ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tunneling Effect ◽  
Continuous Time Markov Chain ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Application Timing ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Absolute Effect

AbstractThe application, timing, and duration of lockdown strategies during a pandemic remain poorly quantified with regards to expected public health outcomes. Previous projection models have reached conflicting conclusions about the effect of complete lockdowns on COVID-19 outcomes. We developed a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model with eight states including the environment (SEAMHQRD-V), and derived a formula for the basic reproduction number, R0, for that model. Applying the R0 formula as a function in previously-published social contact matrices from 152 countries, we produced the distribution and four categories of possible R0 for the 152 countries and chose one country from each quarter as a representative for four social contact categories (Canada, China, Mexico, and Niger). The model was then used to predict the effects of lockdown timing in those four categories through the representative countries. The analysis for the effect of a lockdown was performed without the influence of the other control measures, like social distancing and mask wearing, to quantify its absolute effect. Hypothetical lockdown timing was shown to be the critical parameter in ameliorating pandemic peak incidence. More importantly, we found that well-timed lockdowns can split the peak of hospitalizations into two smaller distant peaks while extending the overall pandemic duration. The timing of lockdowns reveals that a “tunneling” effect on incidence can be achieved to bypass the peak and prevent pandemic caseloads from exceeding hospital capacity.

scholarly journals Rates and Predictors of Relapse in Medication Overuse Headache: A Clinic-Based Study from China

2019 ◽  
Vol 82 (4-6) ◽  
pp. 68-74
Author(s):  
Huanxian Liu ◽  
Meichen Zhang ◽  
Xiaoyan Chen ◽  
Shuping Sun ◽  
Zhao Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Relapse Rate ◽  
Independent Risk Factor ◽  
Medication Overuse ◽  
Medication Overuse Headache ◽  
Primary Headache ◽  
Education Levels

Objective: This study aims to further assess the rates and risk factors for relapse in medication overuse headache (MOH) patients in China. Methods: The patients were admitted to neurology outpatient clinics at Chinese PLA General Hospital (primarily for headache) and diagnosed with MOH. They responded well to 2 months of preventive treatment and completed a 1-year consultation. General information was collected, including demographic characteristics (age, height, weight, and education level), the clinical features of the headache and the use of pain relievers (type, frequency and duration). Differences in each factor between the group with relapse and the group without relapse were analyzed by the chi-square test or Wilcoxon test. Variables with a p < 0.05 were included as independent variables in nonconditional logistic regression analysis. Results: In total, 129 patients were recruited for this retrospective study. The relapse rate of the MOH patients at the 1-year follow-up was 24.8%. The relapse rate was significantly higher in the patients with migraine (29/97, 29.9%) than in the patients with tension-type headache (3/32, 9.4%) and in the patients with low education levels (middle school or lower; 24/77, 31.6%) than in those with high education levels (high school or higher; 8/52, 15.4%). Nonconditional logistic regression analysis showed that the type of primary headache was an independent risk factor for MOH relapse (OR 3.719, p = 0.044). Conclusions: The relapse rate of MOH patients at the 1-year follow-up was 24.8% in China. The type of primary headache is an independent risk factor for MOH relapse, and patients with migraine as the primary headache are more prone to relapse.

scholarly journals IN-WORK POVERTY IN LATVIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mareks Niklass
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Work Arrangements ◽  
Standard Work ◽  
Poverty Risk ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Social Transfers ◽  
Household Members

The results of a survey carried out in Latvia in 2015 are examined to estimate the scope and depth of in-work poverty. The widely used EU-SILC data considerably underestimate in-work poverty in Latvia. Logistic regression analysis indicates that persons with low education, poor health, persons of pre-retirement age, and those employed in non-standard work arrangements are more likely exposed to a high in-work poverty risk. Social transfers and the income of other household members do not significantly reduce this risk. The Latvian government should provide adequate social protection and funding to alleviate the in-work poverty problem.

scholarly journals Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Huang ◽  
Jionghua Wang ◽  
Jixuan Cai ◽  
Shiqi Yao ◽  
Paul Kay Sheung CHAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Preventive Interventions ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mobility Reduction

Abstract COVID-19 resurgences worldwide have posed significant challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, especially given that the effects of physical distancing and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission are still unclear. Using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devised a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way such that the gap between intervention measures and disease transmission can be explicitly bridged. This index explained 90% of the variance in the changing reproduction number of infections across the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, and was validated in six other cities of different population densities. Our simulations showed that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on mobility reduction, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium-population density, vaccination can shorten the duration of physical distancing by 36%-78%, whereas for cities with high-population density, infection numbers can well be controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings provide guidance on tailoring and implementing comprehensive interventions for cities with varying population densities.

scholarly journals Canine Leptospirosis Outbreak in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Saeki ◽  
Aki Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Causative Agent ◽  
Leptospira Interrogans ◽  
Osaka Prefecture ◽  
Antibody Titers ◽  
Comparative Group ◽  
Incident Cases

Canine leptospirosis was suspected in 11 dogs in Osaka Prefecture, Japan and 9 dogs died within a month, from October 12 to November 10, 2017. Eight of the dogs had been taken on walks along the same riverbed and 4 dogs lived in the same town. Logistic regression analysis between a comparative group and the incident cases group showed that the odds of leptospirosis infection was 13.3 times higher (p = 0.044) in the dogs taken on walks along the riverbed than in the dogs not being walked along the riverbed. It is suggesting that these walks had been a risk factor. Microscopic agglutination tests showed that antibody titers against Leptospira interrogans serovar Australis were 1:2,560 and 1:10,240 in 2 dogs. Therefore, L. interrogans serovar Australis was suspected to be the causative agent, for which no canine vaccine is available in Japan. These results suggested that L. interrogans serovar Australis can cause local outbreaks. The development of a canine vaccine against various serotypes might help reduce local infections. Leptospirosis is an important infectious disease of dogs and it is also a zoonotic disease.

ANALISIS HUBUNGAN SARANA, PENGETAHUAN, DAN SIKAP BIDAN PRAKTIK MANDIRI DENGAN KEPATUHAN MENJALANKAN STANDAR PELAYANAN ANTENATAL CARE DI KOTA PADANGSIDIMPUAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Megawati Sinambela ◽  
Evi Erianty Hasibuan
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Antenatal Care ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The North

Antenatal care is a service provided to pregnant women to monitor, support maternal health and detect mothers whether normal or problematic pregnant women. According to the WHO, globally more than 70% of maternal deaths are caused by complications of pregnancy and childbirth such as hemorrhage, hypertension, sepsis, and abortion. Based on data obtained from the profile of the North Sumatra provincial health office in 2017, in the city of Padangsidimpuan in 2017 the coverage of ANC visits reached (76.58%) and had not reached the target in accordance with the 2017 Provincial Health Office strategy plan (95%). This type of research was an observational analytic study with a cross sectional design. The population in this study were independent practice midwives who were in the Padangsidimpuan, the sample in this study amounted to 102 respondents. The technique of collecting data used questionnaires and data analysis used univariate, bivariate and multivariate analysis with logistic regression analysis. Based on bivariate analysis showed that there was a relationship between facilities, knowledge and attitudes of independent midwives with compliance with the standards of antenatal care services with a value of p <0.05. The results of the study with multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the factors associated with the compliance of independent midwives in carrying out antenatal care service standards were attitudes with values (p = 0.026).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document