Influence of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1999 – 2018)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 315-325
Author(s):  
Lyndon M. Etale ◽  
Lucky L. Imbazi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Least Square ◽  
P Value ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Multiple Regression Technique

This study set out to empirically examine the influence of selected microeconomic variables (MEVs) on economic growth in Nigeria between 1999 and 2018. It evaluated gross domestic product (as the measure of economic growth) as a function of four selected variables of MEVs: Interest rate, Exchange rate, Inflation and Broad Money Supply. For effective and efficient analysis of the study variables the multiple regression technique based on the ordinary least square method with the help of several inferential statistical tools were used for data analysis to draw necessary conclusions. The models used analyze the relationship between the selected MEVs. Nigeria’s inability to increase her GDP over the years far above her population growth is heavily dependent on the sincerity of our political will to actualize it. The hypotheses formulated were rejected for three variables because the critical P-value 0.05 is < the calculated P-values; except for BMS Broad Money Supply (BMS) which revealed significant positive influence on GDP with P-value of 0.00 < 0.05 level of significance. The study therefore concluded that macroeconomic decision is not enough to bring about economic growth. The interplay of both fiscal and monetary policy backed up with political will to achieve its objectives both in the short and long-run is required. Nigeria still lack good political will for economic growth and poor governance. Still government should improve the regulations and supervisory role in the financial sector for sustainable growth to be achieved in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Determinan Jumlah Uang Beredar, Tingkat Bunga, dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Al-Buhuts ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-64
Author(s):  
Adya Utami
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the determinants of the money supply, the interest rate, and inflation on Indonesia's economic growth in the 2009-2018 period. This research uses descriptive method and is strengthened by the OLS (ordinary least square) method with secondary data. The data used is sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and Bank Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that the money supply and the interest rate have a negative effect but inflation has a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth. The JUB variable is not significant with a probability value of 0.1326. The JUB regression coefficient value has a negative relationship to the economic growth variable with a coefficient of 0.9288. The interest rate variable entered in the above equation turns out to be negative and significant with a probability value of 0.0571. The value of the coefficient of the exchange rate is (0.4843). The independent variable inflation gives a negative and not significant result with a probability value of 0.1134. Inflation coefficient value is 0.1724. In the equation model that uses economic growth as the dependent variable above, the magnitude of the coefficient of determination (R Squared) is 0.573429. This shows that the ability of the independent variable in explaining the diversity of the independent variables is 57.34% while the remaining 42.66% is influenced by other variables not included in the model.

scholarly journals Impact of Capital Inflows on Economic Growth of Developing Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 7-21
Author(s):  
Chigbu Ezeji E ◽  
Ubah Chijindu Promise ◽  
Chigbu Uzoamaka S
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of capital inflows on economic growth of developing economies; the case of Nigeria, Ghana and India from 1986-2012. This is necessitated by the doubts being raised as whether the huge inflows of foreign capital in developing economies over the years have transmitted to real economic growth. Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test was employed to evaluate the stationarity of the data, while Johansen Co-integration was used to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The casual relationship was tested using Granger Causality, and Ordinary Least Square method was used to estimate the model. The findings reveals that capital inflows have significant impact on the economic growth of the three countries. In Nigeria and Ghana, foreign direct and portfolio investment as well as foreign borrowings have significant and positive impact on economic growth. Workers’ remittances significantly and positively related to the economic growth of the three countries. The enabling environment should be created in the developing countries to encourage more inflow of foreign investments and workers remittances. This will help in closing the savings-investment gap and encourage economic growth in these countries. The study signifies that capital inflows is indispensable in closing the savings-investment gap required for economic growth of developing countries.

scholarly journals FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA (THE MICROFINANCE OPTION)

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-74
Author(s):  
Peter A Okere ◽  
Otiwu Kingsley C ◽  
Uzowuru Lawrence N ◽  
Ozuzu P.N
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Financial Education ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Conventional Banks

The main focus of this study is to establish the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth with particular reference of microfinance option for the period 1992 to 2013. Using Ordinary Least Square method and employing the Johansen Cointegration tests the study revealed that the activities of microfinance as one of the financial inclusion strategy significantly contribute to economic growth. While total loans and advances of microfinance banks significantly contribute to economic growth, total deposits inversely affect economic growth. The study also established the presence of long-run relationship between the variables considered (GDP, total loans and advances, total deposits, investments and number of microfinance banks) The study reveals that the growth and development of a nation is significantly dependent on the expansion of banking and financial services to the currently financially-excluded class of citizens of the country, as they possess untapped and unexplored valuable potentials that will be of tremendous to the country. In view of the benefits inherent in financial inclusion, this study recommends that microfinance banks should concentrate efforts on low cost deposits which are in line with their operations than competing with the conventional banks in mobilizing fixed deposits that has higher cost attached to it. Financial education is also recommended to enlighten the public on benefits of a financial superstructure.

scholarly journals Money supply and economic growth of Nepal: ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-94
Author(s):  
Keshar Bahadur Kunwar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

There are a number of theories illustrating the relationship between money supply and gross domestic product. Money supply can be defined as the total stock of money circulating in the economy. The circulating money involves the currency, printed notes, money in the deposit accounts, and in the form of other liquid assets. Valuation of money supply helps analysts and policy makers to frame the policy or to alter the existing policy of increasing or reducing the supply of money. The valuation is important as it ultimately affects the business cycle and thereby affecting the economy. This study sought to provide answers to the question, what are the effects of money supply on the gross domestic product in Nepal? The study undertook a causal research design using time series data from the period 1974/75 to 2017/18 to critically investigate the relationship between money supply and economic growth by establishing an empirical relationship that exists between them. The study employed the Augmented Diky fuller test and ARDL- VECM model. The results indicate the existence of a significant long-run relationship between money supply and economic growth as measured by GDP. LNBM is significant to LNGDP and LNGDP is also significant to LNBM so there is bi-directional causality. There is unidirectional relationship existing between LNINF to LNGDP and LNINF to LNBM. ECTcoefficient vale are negative and the p-value of above three approaches are also less than 5 percent which is desirable for the ARDL model.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING POVERTY IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE (CASE STUDY IN 33 DISTRICT / CITY)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Yudistira Avandi ◽  
Setyo Tri Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Level Of Education

The equitable poverty reduction in North Sumatera became one of the unresolved issues until now. The decreasing of poverty percentage in the last five years in North Sumatera can not represent the level of public welfare. In fact , in 2013, there were 22 out of 33 districts in North Sumatera which have the poverty percentage more than ten percent and known as hardcore poverty. The highest poverty percentage was found in North Nias and Gunung Sitoli by 30.94 %, while the lowest was found in Deli Serdang by 4.71 %. This research stated the problem “How is the influence of the economic growth, level of education, and the minimum regional wages toward the level of poverty in North Sumatera Province? The objective is to analyze the influence of economic growth, the level of education and the minimum wages toward the poor population in North Sumatera Province. This research used 165 samples that spread in 33 districts in North Sumatera from 2009 until 2013 with panel data and using Fixed Effect Model Method.  The result of the Ordinary Least Square Method (LOS) through the multiple linear regretion estimated model showed that the economic growth and the minimum regional wages had negative influence, while the level of education had positive influence toward poverty in North Sumatera. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.948157 which means the variable of economic growth, minimum regional wages and level of education can define the poverty in North Sumatera by 94.82 %, and 5.18 % defined by other economic variables outside the model.

scholarly journals Is the savings-led growth hypothesis valid for Zimbabwe?

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Case Study Methodology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Per Capita

This study investigates the long run relationship between economic growth and gross domestic savings for Zimbabwe during the period 1980 to 2011. The causality relationship between savings and economic growth has been a subject of extensive debate for almost half a century now. There are currently two dominant views regarding the relationship between savings and economic growth. The first view maintains that it is the growth of savings that drives economic growth. The second view argues that it is economic growth that spurs savings expansion. Using the case study methodology, the study revealed that GDP per capita had a significant positive influence on the quantity and level of gross domestic savings and not the other way round. Policies that are targeted at boosting GDP per capita should be accelerated in order to promote long-term and sustainable growth gross domestic savings for in Zimbabwe

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING POVERTY IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE (CASE STUDY IN 33 DISTRICT / CITY)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yudistira Avandi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Level Of Education

The equitable poverty reduction in North Sumatera became one of the unresolved issues until now. The decreasing of poverty percentage in the last five years in North Sumatera can not represent the level of public welfare. In fact , in 2013, there were 22 out of 33 districts in North Sumatera which have the poverty percentage more than ten percent and known as hardcore poverty. The highest poverty percentage was found in North Nias and Gunung Sitoli by 30.94 %, while the lowest was found in Deli Serdang by 4.71 %. This research stated the problem “How is the influence of the economic growth, level of education, and the minimum regional wages toward the level of poverty in North Sumatera Province? The objective is to analyze the influence of economic growth, the level of education and the minimum wages toward the poor population in North Sumatera Province. This research used 165 samples that spread in 33 districts in North Sumatera from 2009 until 2013 with panel data and using Fixed Effect Model Method.  The result of the Ordinary Least Square Method (LOS) through the multiple linear regretion estimated model showed that the economic growth and the minimum regional wages had negative influence, while the level of education had positive influence toward poverty in North Sumatera. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.948157 which means the variable of economic growth, minimum regional wages and level of education can define the poverty in North Sumatera by 94.82 %, and 5.18 % defined by other economic variables outside the model.

Financial Deepening, Financial Intermediation and Nigerian Economic Growth: Time Variant Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 60-73
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run

This study examines financial deepening, financial intermediation and Nigerian economic growth. The main purpose is to examine the relationship between financial deepening and Nigerian economic growth while the specific objectives are to examine the impact of interest rate, capital market development, rational savings, credit to private sector and broad money supply on the growth of Nigerian. Secondary data of the variables were sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1981-2017. Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as dependent variable while Broad money supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), National Savings (NS), Capital Market Capitalization (CAMP) and Interest Rate (INTR) was used as independent variables. Multiple regressions with E-view statistical package were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Granger causality test was used to determine the relationship between the variable in the long-run and short-run. R2, F – statistics and β Coefficients were used to determine the extent to which the independent variable affects the dependent variable. It was found from the regression result that Broad Money Supply, credit to private sector have position effect on the growth of Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product while National Savings, Capitalization and Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Gross Domestic Product. The co-integration test revealed presence of long-run relationship among the variables, the stationary test indicated stationarity of the variables at level. The Granger Causality Test found bi – variant relationship from the dependent to the independent and from the independent to the dependent variables. The regression summary found 99.0% explained variation, 560.5031, F – statistics and probability of 0.00000. From the above, the study concludes that financial deepening has significant relationships with Nigerian economic growth. We recommend that government and the financial sector operators should make policies that will further deepen the functions of the financial system to enhance Nigerian economic growth.

scholarly journals Banking Sector Development, Inflation and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: A Panel Causality and Co-Integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Nazir ◽  
Rehana Tabassam ◽  
Ifran Khan ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Nazir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the causal relationship between banking sector development, inflation, and economic growth for six Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) over the period of 1970-2016. Using a Pedroni panel, Kao co-integration test, Panel Granger causality-based Error Correction Model, Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), this study finds that the development of the banking sector generally has a positive relationship with economic growth in the long-run. This results show that in the long-run, monetary policy play a vital role in the economic growth. This study also confirmed the response causality between the indicators of banking sector development and economic growth. Based on the empirical findings, this research provides important policy implications to the banking sector and economic supervisory bodies in order to achieve the long run economic growth.

Macroeconomic determinants of trade openness: empirical investigation of SAARC region

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
SAF Hasnu ◽  
Mario Ruiz Estrada
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Trade openness plays a significant role in the growth process of countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on the trade openness of countries. Design/methodology/approach The study focuses on the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries and the data used were from 1971 to 2011. Panel data econometrics techniques and two stages least square method (TSLS) are used to carry out empirical analysis and robustness testing. Findings The main finding of the paper is that macroeconomic determinants such as investment both in physical and human capital and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) positively affect trade openness. Further, the size of labour force and currency exchange rate has also impacted trade openness negatively and significantly. Practical implications It implies that efficient macroeconomic management matters for higher trade openness. The sampled developing countries are suggested to pay favourable attention to macroeconomic variables if they want to grow in the long run through outward-oriented policies. Originality/value This paper is an original contribution in the context of SAARC countries by focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic determinants and trade openness.

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