Food Stamps, Income Shocks, and Crime: Evidence from California

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Lovett
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Food Stamps ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Assistance Programs ◽  
Labor Earnings

Abstract An extensive literature shows that reduced labor earnings lead to an increase in criminality, while another literature suggests that diminished economic conditions via changes in public assistance programs may alter criminal behavior. This study considers electronic benefit transfer (EBT) reforms that may have altered households’ real income, black market activity, and criminality. A natural experiment that relies on plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of EBT reforms across California counties is exploited within an event study design to identify the effect of EBT adoption on arrests. A significant, though transitory, increase in criminal arrests is revealed. Following conversion to EBT delivery, the average county experiences an additional 108 arrests per month, or equivalently an increase of 5 . This increase in arrests lasts up to 6 months before fading out. The increase is most pronounced for crimes motivated by income shortfalls, such as burglary, larceny, prostitution, and robbery. In the average county, income-motivated criminal arrests rise by about 25 arrests, or 10 . Estimates are practically and statistically significant, as well as robust to changes in controls and specification. Findings suggest that income shocks can substantially change criminal behavior and that declining economic conditions can alter criminal behavior through channels other than labor earnings.

scholarly journals Social Protection and Informality in Latin America during the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matías Busso ◽  
Juanita Camacho ◽  
Julián Messina ◽  
Guadalupe Montenegro
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Assistance Programs ◽  
Informal Workers ◽  
Inability To Work ◽  
Social Protection Systems ◽  
Income Assistance

Latin American governments swiftly implemented income assistance programs to sustain families' livelihoods during COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. This paper analyzes the potential coverage and generosity of these measures and assesses the suitability of current safety nets to deal with unexpected negative income shocks in 10 Latin American countries. The expansion of pre-existing programs (most notably conditional cash transfers and non-contributory pensions) during the COVID-19 crisis was generally insufficient to compensate for the inability to work among the poorest segments of the population. When COVID-19 ad hoc programs are analyzed, the coverage and replacement rates of regular labor income among households in the first quintile of the country's labor income distribution increase substantially. Yet, these programs present substantial coverage challenges among families composed of fundamentally informal workers who are non-poor, but are at a high risk of poverty. These results highlight the limitations of the fragmented nature of social protection systems in the region.

scholarly journals The Separation and Reunification of Germany: Rethinking a Natural Experiment Interpretation of the Enduring Effects of Communism

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sascha O. Becker ◽  
Lukas Mergele ◽  
Ludger Woessmann
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
World War ◽  
East And West Germany ◽  
Cautious Interpretation ◽  
East And West ◽  
And Gender ◽  
And Control

German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring effects of communism. We show in three steps that the populations in East and West Germany were far from being randomly selected treatment and control groups. First, the later border is already visible in many socio-economic characteristics in pre-World War II data. Second, World War II and the subsequent occupying forces affected East and West differently. Third, a selective fifth of the population fled from East to West Germany before the building of the Wall in 1961. In light of our findings, we propose a more cautious interpretation of the extensive literature on the enduring effects of communist systems on economic outcomes, political preferences, cultural traits, and gender roles.

Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 236-240
Author(s):  
Jessamyn Schaller ◽  
Price Fishback ◽  
Kelli Marquardt
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Data Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Entire Sample ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Per Capita

This paper reexamines the association between local economic conditions and fertility using a new dataset of county-level birthrates and per capita income in the United States spanning the period 1937-2016. Using a panel data model, we estimate that growth in local income is positively associated with birthrates over our entire sample period and that the strength of that association peaked during the 1960-1990 period and has declined in recent decades. We additionally estimate dynamic responses to local income shocks, finding that birthrates remain elevated for up to four years after a shock.

Wartime ties and the social logic of crime

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 536-550
Author(s):  
Sarah Zukerman Daly ◽  
Laura Paler ◽  
Cyrus Samii
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Social Ties ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Opportunity ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Logic ◽  
Original Survey

While ex-combatant reintegration is vital to successful transitions from war to peace, some former fighters turn to crime following demobilization. Such criminality undermines the consolidation of political order. Leading theories of crime participation emphasize the role of both individual economic opportunities and factors related to social ties. Yet, we still know little about the social logic of ex-combatant criminality and how social and economic factors relate as drivers of crime participation. This article presents a theory of how wartime social ties – namely, vertical ties to former commanders and horizontal ties to ex-combatant peers – influence ex-combatant crime on their own and via their relationship to economic opportunity costs. We use the theory to derive predictions in the context of Colombia, and then test them with a combination of administrative data and high-quality original survey data. We find that both vertical and horizontal wartime ties are powerful drivers of ex-combatant criminality. Our evidence indicates that wartime ties mitigate the risks of criminal behavior by facilitating the transmission of criminal capabilities and pro-crime social norms. We do not find that economic conditions moderate the effect of wartime times nor do we find any indication that economic opportunity costs, on their own, predict criminality. These findings underscore the importance of wartime ties – both vertical and horizontal – to understanding post-conflict transitions and designing reintegration interventions.

An Empirical Assessment of the Comparative Advantage Gains from Trade: Evidence from Japan

2005 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 208-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M Bernhofen ◽  
John C Brown
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Gains From Trade ◽  
Empirical Assessment ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Opening Up

We provide an empirical assessment of the comparative advantage gains from trade argument. We use Japan’s nineteenth-century opening up to world commerce as a natural experiment to answer the following counterfactual: “By how much would real income have had to increase in Japan during its final autarky years of 1851–1853 to afford the consumption bundle the economy could have obtained if it were engaged in international trade during that period?” Using detailed historical data on trade flows, autarky prices, and Japan’s real GDP, we obtain upper bounds on the gains from trade of about 8 to 9 percent of Japan’s GDP.

Political Business Cycles and Imprisonment Rates in Italy: Report on a Work in Progress

1987 ◽  
Vol 16 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 211-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Melossi
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Common Law ◽  
Civil Law ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Business Cycles ◽  
Work In Progress

Sociologists have shown the presence of statistically significant associations between changing economic conditions and rates of imprisonment in a number of countries characterized by common law systems. Furthermore, these associations do not seem to be mediated by changing rates of criminal behavior. This article considers the possibility that the same relationships exist in a civil law society, Italy, for the period 1896–1965. It then goes on to highlight an hypothesis and possible test to explain the nature of these associations, based on the intervening role of public opinion.

Resilience among abused and neglected children grown up

2001 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1021-1038 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEAN MARIE MCGLOIN ◽  
CATHY SPATZ WIDOM
Keyword(s):  
Young Adulthood ◽  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Childhood Victimization ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
Abuse And Neglect ◽  
Neglected Children ◽  
Abused And Neglected Children

Although an extensive literature has accumulated documenting the maladaptive outcomes associated with childhood victimization, a limited body of knowledge addresses resilience. This paper sought to operationalize the construct of resilience across a number of domains of functioning and time periods and to determine the extent to which abused and neglected children grown up demonstrate resilience. Substantiated cases of child abuse and neglect from 1967 to 1971 were matched on gender, age, race, and approximate family social class with nonabused and nonneglected children and followed prospectively into young adulthood. Between 1989 and 1995, 1,196 participants (676 abused and neglected and 520 controls) were administered a 2-hr in-person interview, including a psychiatric assessment. Resilience requires meeting the criteria for success across six of eight domains of functioning: employment, homelessness, education, social activity, psychiatric disorder, substance abuse, and two domains assessing criminal behavior (official arrest and self-reports of violence). Results indicate that 22% of abused and neglected individuals meet the criteria for resilience. More females met the criteria for resilience and females were successful across a greater number of domains than males. We speculate on the meaning of these findings and discuss implications for the child maltreatment field. Limitations of the study are also acknowledged.

scholarly journals Does Growing Up in a High Crime Neighborhood Affect Youth Criminal Behavior?

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (6) ◽  
pp. 1806-1832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Piil Damm ◽  
Christian Dustmann
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Young People ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Early Exposure ◽  
Neighborhood Crime ◽  
Violent Crimes ◽  
High Crime

This paper investigates the effect of early exposure to neighborhood crime on subsequent criminal behavior of youth exploiting a unique natural experiment between 1986 and 1998 when refugee immigrants to Denmark were assigned to neighborhoods quasi-randomly. We find strong evidence that the share of young people convicted for crimes, in particular violent crimes, in the neighborhood increases convictions of male assignees later in life. No such effects are found for other measures of neighborhood crime including the rate of committed crimes. Our findings suggest social interaction as a key channel through which neighborhood crime is linked to individual criminal behavior. (JEL J13, J15, K42, R23, Z13)

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