scholarly journals Posconflicto colombiano y sus efectos económicos

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (27) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Ruiz Diaz ◽  
John Galeano Raquejo ◽  
Edwin Gil Mateus
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Government

<p align="center">Resumen</p><p> </p><p>Las negociaciones de paz del gobierno con las denominadas Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) podrían tener efectos sobre la economía colombiana. Por ello se esbozan  tres escenarios –pesimista, neutral y optimista– en los que se distingan efectos a nivel financiero y de comercio internacional en los cinco años posteriores a la finalización del proceso de negociación. Partiendo del estudio de casos en cinco países que enfrentaron la terminación de un conflicto interno, por vía militar o diplomática, se analizaron variables sobre las cuales se podría prever un efecto, teniendo en cuenta el posconflicto y el desenlace de las negociaciones de paz entre la guerrilla y el Gobierno. Se concluye que en los cinco años posteriores a la firma del acuerdo, la balanza de bienes y servicios crecería entre el 3% y  6%; el comercio lo haría entre 10% y 15%; el Riesgo País se incrementaría alrededor de 4 puntos; la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) aumentaría entre 40% y 50%; el crecimiento del PIB anual estaría 1 ó 2 puntos porcentuales más alto que el actual y el gasto militar disminuiría al 10% como porcentaje del PIB.</p><p> </p><p align="center">Abstract</p><p> </p><p>The government peace negotiations with the so-called Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) could have an impact on the Colombian economy, being relevant to analyze such effects. Therefore three possible scenarios to financial and international trade level for a period of five years, compared to the possible outcomes of the negotiation process are outlined. From case studies in five countries faced the completion of an internal conflict, military or diplomatic channels, variables were analyzed on which could provide an effect, taking into account the post-conflict and outcome of peace negotiations between the guerrillas and the government. It is concluded that in the five years after signing the agreement, the balance of goods and services would grow between 3% and 6%; would trade between 10% and 15% greater; country risk would rise about 4 points; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) would increase between 40% and 50%; annual GDP growth would be 1 or 2 percentage points higher than the current and military spending would decrease 10% as a percentage of GDP.</p>

scholarly journals The effects of armed conflict on forest cover changes across temporal and spatial scales in the Colombian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar V. Bautista-Cespedes ◽  
Louise Willemen ◽  
Augusto Castro-Nunez ◽  
Thomas A. Groen
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Forest Cover Changes ◽  
The Government ◽  
Colombian Amazon

AbstractThe Amazon rainforest covers roughly 40% of Colombia’s territory and has important global ecological functions. For more than 50 years, an internal war in the country has shaped this region. Peace negotiations between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) initiated in 2012 resulted in a progressive de-escalation of violence and a complete ceasefire in 2016. This study explores the role of different deforestation drivers including armed conflict variables, in explaining deforestation for three periods between 2001 and 2015. Iterative regression analyses were carried out for two spatial extents: the entire Colombian Amazon and a subset area which was most affected by deforestation. The results show that conflict variables have positive relationships with deforestation; yet, they are not among the main variables explaining deforestation. Accessibility and biophysical variables explain more variation. Nevertheless, conflict variables show divergent influence on deforestation depending on the period and scale of analysis. Based on these results, we develop deforestation risk maps to inform the design of forest conservation efforts in the post-conflict period.

Tempting the Wrath: ``Plan Colombia'' in the Colombian Peace Process

2001 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-435
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Game Theory ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The United States ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Plan Colombia ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Incentive Structures ◽  
The Government ◽  
Imminent Threat

AbstractWhat role did `Plan Colombia' – the United States' counter-narcotics aid package –play in the dynamics of Colombia's peace negotiations? This article explains how `Plan Colombia' can be perceived as a strategic move by the Pastrana Administration to overcome the protracted stalemate in the peace negotiations between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Using basic tools from game theory, it is shown how `Plan Colombia' could have created incentives for both parties to move towards bilateral concession. However, it is argued that due to the absence of an imminent threat, the incentive structures were not altered sufficiently to induce the parties to compromise. A distinct consequence of `Plan Colombia' is that it irreversibly linked the United State's interest in the Colombian internal conflict to the issue of narcotics.

scholarly journals Women, peace and international security: the Havana Agreement for peace in Colombia

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-90
Author(s):  
Elena DE OLIVEIRA SCHUCK ◽  
Lívia BRITO
Keyword(s):  
International Security ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Specific Analysis ◽  
The Government

Armed conflicts have different impacts on women. In this regard, women’s civil society organizations are inserted in the international political arenas in order to guarantee their rights in warfare contexts. In the case of conflicts in Colombia, women are identified not only as combatants and victims, but also as members of women civil organizations for peacebuilding. These organizations played a prominent role in the elaboration of the peace agreement between the Government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Havana, Cuba, between 2012 and 2016. This article proposes an analysis of the theoretical production on peace, international security, feminism and subalternity, to present the specific case of the conflict in Colombia and its gender perspectives. The results indicate that peace agreements can be instruments of political inclusion and reparation for women affected by armed conflicts. In highlighting the role of political minorities in the international peace negotiations in Colombia, this research contributes to the development and expansion of critical perspectives —feminist and subaltern— on international security and studies for peace. Moreover, building upon the specific analysis of the Havana Agreement, this paper aims to contribute to the inclusion of a gender perspective in future peace agreements.

Colombia peace talks offer scope for organised crime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Violence ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government ◽  
Criminal Groups

Subject The rising threat from BACRIM. Significance Organised criminal groups are now the non-state actors most frequently responsible for internal displacement of Colombians, according to a recent UN report. There is also evidence that the so-called BACRIM (criminal bands) are seeking to fill the vacuum after an eventual demobilisation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The BACRIM, and Los Urabenos in particular, have expanded control over rural areas and the mining sector, posing a threat as the government seeks to attract foreign investment to boost development in a post-conflict environment. Impacts Criminal violence in cities along the western coast is already causing damage to Colombia's international image. Increased insecurity perceptions risk marring the political and economic benefits the government expects from the peace process. Criminal groups such as Los Urabenos will benefit from the vacuum left by the FARC if a peace treaty is signed later this year.

“Spoiling” in the Public Sphere: Political Opposition to Peace Negotiations and the Referendum Campaign in Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Joana Amaral
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Peace referendums can be exploited by political actors who may gain politically from opposing a peace process. This article explores how political opposition affects peace negotiations, particularly when a referendum is used to ratify an agreement, through the study of the Colombian peace negotiations between the government of President Santos and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). It finds that the exclusive character of the negotiations, coupled with their confidentiality, contributed to the political opposition’s capacity to influence public opinion against the peace process and to reject the peace agreement in the 2016 referendum. This qualitative study is based on the content analysis of reports, memoirs and interviews with key negotiation delegates, journalists and representatives of the referendum campaigns. It argues that political inclusion in peace negotiations can help prevent referendum spoiling, while public information and education during the negotiations can reduce the impact of disinformation and manipulation campaigns.

Promoting Internal Armed Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding: The Case of the U.S.-Colombia Relations (Part II)

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 150-196
Author(s):  
A. A. Manukhin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
The United States ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Internal Armed Conflict ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government

In the present paper the author continues the study of the challenges faced by Colombia in its struggle to overcome the internal armed conflict, as well as the role of the United States in this process. By 2010 the confrontation between the government forces and the armed rebels had reached a breaking point opening the way to a successful conclusion of the Government of Colombia–FARC peace negotiations and the beginning of the country’s post-conflict reconstruction. The paper thoroughly examines the negotiations process, identifies the key disputed issues and the measures outlined for their resolution, including mechanisms of transitional justice, agrarian reform, programmes for demobilization and reintegration of the former combatants. The results of these talks laid the foundation for the historic Peace Accord of September 26, 2016. However, against all hopes and expectations, the agreement failed to bring an end to the long-standing internal conflict in Colombia. The failure of the national referendum, which was designed to approve the agreement, not only revealed deep divisions in the society, but forced the government to make serious concessions to the opponents of the negotiations with FARC. The author emphasizes the growing erosion of the hard-won consensus in the Colombian society, accompanied by the consolidation of the right-wing conservative camp. In this context the role of external sponsors of the peaceful agreement in general and the United States in particular becomes crucial. The paper presents a comparative analysis of approaches to providing aid to Colombia demonstrated by the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The author concludes that despite substantial differences, for both administrations the ultimate objective was national security of the United States. That was clearly demonstrated by the fact that the US foreign aid to Colombia focused primarily on the fight against the illegal production of and trafficking in drugs, while the issues of peacebuilding and post-conflict reconstruction received less attention. Assessing Colombia’s experience in overcoming the internal conflict and the role of the United States in that process, the author concludes that although prioritization of security issues may have a considerable organizing potential, at the same time it may be detrimental to the process of post-conflict reconstruction in general.

scholarly journals Spoilers of peace: Pro-government militias as risk factors for conflict recurrence

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph V Steinert ◽  
Janina I Steinert ◽  
Sabine C Carey
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Simulation ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Material Benefits ◽  
The Government ◽  
Personal Interests

This study investigates how deployment of pro-government militias (PGMs) as counterinsurgents affects the risk of conflict recurrence. Militiamen derive material and non-material benefits from fighting in armed conflicts. Since these will likely have diminished after the conflict’s termination, militiamen develop a strong incentive to spoil post-conflict peace. Members of pro-government militias are particularly disadvantaged in post-conflict contexts compared to their role in the government’s counterinsurgency campaign. First, PGMs are usually not present in peace negotiations between rebels and governments. This reduces their commitment to peace agreements. Second, disarmament and reintegration programs tend to exclude PGMs, which lowers their expected and real benefits from peace. Third, PGMs might lose their advantage of pursuing personal interests while being protected by the government, as they become less essential during peacetimes. To empirically test whether conflicts with PGMs as counterinsurgents are more likely to break out again, we identify PGM counterinsurgent activities in conflict episodes between 1981 and 2007. We code whether the same PGM was active in a subsequent conflict between the same actors. Controlling for conflict types, which is associated with both the likelihood of deploying PGMs and the risk of conflict recurrence, we investigate our claims with propensity score matching, statistical simulation, and logistic regression models. The results support our expectation that conflicts in which pro-government militias were used as counterinsurgents are more likely to recur. Our study contributes to an improved understanding of the long-term consequences of employing PGMs as counterinsurgents and highlights the importance of considering non-state actors when crafting peace and evaluating the risk of renewed violence.

The Transforming Role of Education in a Post-Conflict Region in Southeastern Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
pp. 295-310
Author(s):  
Ala Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Peace Building ◽  
Transfer Program ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Hydroelectric Project ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sensitive Issues

This paper attempts to provide an insight into the transforming role of education in peace-building in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). The region has been witnessed ethnic conflict since the mid-1970s. However, the situation intensified with the government sponsored population transfer program (1979 onward), which not only changed the demographic profile, it forcibly displaced many indigenous people—who less than two decades earlier had already been displaced by the Kaptai hydroelectric project (in 1960s). Consequently, the indigenous people who were already in duress because of land scarcity caused by the dam and transmigration faced further survival problem in competition with the Bengali settlers. In this situation, the indigenous people resisted the influx of the Bengali settlers in the hills. In response to the resistance, the Bangladesh government deployed a huge number of military and other armed forces to foil the “insurgency”. In consequence, many incidents of massacre, attack and reprisal attack, killing, sexual violence, etc. took place, often committed by the armed forces and Bengali settlers. However, a couple of initiatives led to a long-awaited agreement in 1997, which formally ended the two and half-decade-long bloody conflict in the hills. Even though 17 years have elapsed since the signing of the Accord, the region is neither a peaceful nor a secured region to its people. Under the circumstances, this paper proposes education can transform the communities toward peaceful coexistence. Addressing the sensitive issues education can contribute to reconstruct and social renewal in the aftermath of violent conflict. Based on empirical findings, also consulted with secondary sources, the paper posits, merely education is not the solution of the long-standing conflict; however, it has significant role to play in peace-building in the post-conflict and conflict-affected societies, like the CHT.

Gender and Disarmament, Demobilisation, and Reintegration in Post Comprehensive Peace Agreement South Sudan

2020 ◽  
pp. 153-171
Author(s):  
Nada Mustafa Ali
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
United Nations Security Council ◽  
Security Sector Reform ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Conflict Setting ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace And Security ◽  
The Government

This chapter discusses gender, peace, and the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programs for former Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) combatants and Women Associated with the Armed Forces (WAAF) in South Sudan, based on field research in Juba and Wau in South Sudan in 2013. The chapter examines the distinct impact of DDR on women former combatants and on (WAAF), in a militarized ‘post’-conflict setting where gender inequality prevails, and in light of the government of South Sudan’s and the international community’s endorsement of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security. A key finding is that in post-CPA South Sudan, DDR compounded social exclusion for most women ex-combatants and WAAF. The chapter calls for a rethinking of understandings of peace as mere cessation of hostilities, and as gathering of arms from former combatants. It also calls for restoring the voices of former combatants of both sexes, and of citizens in local communities directly affected by conflict, into policy and scholarly discourses on Security Sector Reform (SSR), and post-conflict reconstruction.

Colombia post-war insecurity to preclude defence cuts

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Military Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government ◽  
Post War

Subject Military reform plans. Significance The declining intensity of Colombia's civil war has encouraged politicians and security officials to re-assess the function and structure of the armed forces. Military leaders have sought to diversify into new activities, such as policing and reconstruction in order to avoid budget cuts. In its latest announcement, the government declared that, for now, troop numbers will not be reduced. However, in the context of declining combat operations and a costly post-conflict reconstruction programme, cuts to the military budget are possible over the medium term. Impacts A permanent end to the civil war may precipitate a reduction in military purchases of helicopters and other counterinsurgency equipment. Nevertheless, armed crime groups will present an ongoing security threat, potentially justifying the maintenance of high military spending. Any future efforts to cut back military powers and budgets will provoke resistance from the institution and its congressional allies. Military supporters may seek to offset its decline by calling for greater army intervention in urban areas during peaks of gang violence.

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