scholarly journals Did the Qatar Blockade Work? Evidence from Trade and Consumer Welfare Three Years after the Blockade

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan Al-Mal ◽  
Ayhab F Saad
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Consumer Welfare ◽  
Significant Decline ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the effects of the embargo (blockade) imposed on Qatar in June 2017 by four countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain. Using highly disaggregated product-destination quarterly trade datasets provided by the Qatar General Authority of Customs, we find a significant decline in Qatar’s aggregate imports and consumer welfare (with an increase in the prices of imported goods) in the short run, but not thereafter. Political relations with non-besieging countries seem to be associated with Qatar’s bilateral trade after the blockade, particularly in the first quarter. Shortly after the blockade, countries opposing the blockade experienced a sizable growth in exports to Qatar. In the medium to long run, Qatar succeeded in mitigating the impact of the blockade by diversifying its import origins and adopting new reforms to stabilize the economy and enhance the country’s food security and self-sufficiency.

scholarly journals Trade determinants between Pakistan and United Arab Emirate: A time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-29
Author(s):  
Muzaffar Ali ◽  
Raheela Khatoon ◽  
Muhammad Munwar Hayat ◽  
Iqbal Javed
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Economic efficiency in production of commodities depends mainly on technological development, geographically location, capital, availability of natural resources, social setup, skilled labours, customs, some economic and financial priorities. Pakistan mostly traded with China, United Arab Emirates, United State of America and Saudi Arabia. The current study is aimed to estimate the impact of different factors affecting the bilateral trade of Pakistan with United Arab Emirates. The study used annual time series data for the period from 1988 to 2019. In this analysis total bilateral trade is used as dependent variable while population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflations and exchange rate of Pakistan and United Arab Emirates (UAE) were used as independent variables. ARDL approach was applied to check the relationship among the variables. The study finds short run and long run significant relationship among the variables. The gaps in business related plans & polices and entrepreneurship deficiency have prevented the country to cope with the technology advancements. Further this gap is also responsible for greater export diversification and putting of Pakistan to accomplish higher value addition. Incompetent and disorganized firms are trying to get tax exemptions and dispensation through lobbying, whereas new emerging efficient and dynamic firms are also not given confidence to take a part in market.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Policy Impacts on the Bangladeshi Rice Market and Food Security

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5981
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hasan Mobarok ◽  
Wyatt Thompson ◽  
Theodoros Skevas
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Yield Gap ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Restrictive Trade ◽  
Partial Equilibrium Model ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Policy Impacts ◽  
The Impact

This research employs a partial equilibrium model to estimate the short- and long-run effects of COVID-19 and rice policies on Bangladesh’s rice market and food security. We also analyze the impact of relevant policies in terms of their effectiveness in mitigating stresses stemming from a hypothetical pandemic with a COVID-19-like impact. The results indicate that the effect of COVID-19 on Bangladeshi food security during FY 2019/20 was mixed, as the indicators of food availability improved by 5%, and decreased by 17% for food stability, relative to what they would have been otherwise. Policy simulation results indicate that a higher import tariff improves self-sufficiency status, but undermines rice availability and accessibility by bending the market toward a restrictive trade regime. Results also indicate that unlike stock enhancement policy, closing the existing yield gap improves rice availability, accessibility, and moderates the depressing effect of a future event with repercussions similar to COVID-19, although the yield policy appears more speculative and could be too costly. The insights generated contribute to the understanding of policies that aim to achieve sustainable development goals related to aggregate food security, and build resilience against future shocks akin to COVID-19.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol I (I) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Nasir Munir ◽  
Adiqa Kiani ◽  
Asia Baig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Climate change has a severe impact on the accessibility of various resources on earth. The present study determines the impact of climate change on food availability for 27 years from 1990-2016. An ARDL model is used in order to find out the long-run and short-run relationships. The result shows that average temperature shows a negative relationship with food security, as the temperature is increasing the food security is decreasing Food security has a positive relation with agriculture credit since as the agriculture credit increases it will increase the production of agriculture sector which in result increase the supply of food and increase the food security in the country. Fertilizer consumption also has a positive effect on food availability, which is obvious as more and more food is provided with the increased use of fertilizer.

scholarly journals Wheat Self-sufficiency in Different Policy Scenarios and Their Likely Impacts on Producers, Consumers, and the Public Exchequer

2001 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abedullah . ◽  
Mubarik Ali
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Price Support ◽  
Net Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Agricultural Research And Development ◽  
The Impact

Every government faces a challenge to select an optimum policy to provide food supplies to the consumers at a reasonable price and maintain a reasonable nutritional standard. The alternative policy options available are an uninterrupted market, imports, input subsidies, price support, combined policy developed by the combination of input subsidy and price support, and investment on research and infrastructure development. This paper analyses the impact of these options on consumers’ and producers’ welfare, tax revenue, and foreign exchange requirement. The import and input subsidy give net return to the society while price support generates net loss. The triple combined policy option generates the highest net return to the society when each import and input subsidy component is combined with price support in the ratio of 40 and 20 percent, respectively. The best policies to provide higher wheat supplies at lower prices and to improve the welfare of consumers and producers were investment on agricultural research and development of irrigation infrastructure in the long run, but for the short run, the first and the second best option were respectively the combined and the input subsidy policy.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Globalisation and Inequality in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-89
Author(s):  
Jacques de Jongh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Globalisation has had an unprecedented impact on the development and well-being of societies across the globe. Whilst the process has been lauded for bringing about greater trade specialisation and factor mobility many have also come to raise concerns on its impact in the distribution of resources. For South Africa in particular this has been somewhat of a contentious issue given the country's controversial past and idiosyncratic socio-economic structure. Since 1994 though, considerable progress towards its global integration has been made, however this has largely coincided with the establishment of, arguably, the highest levels of income inequality the world has ever seen. This all has raised several questions as to whether a more financially open and technologically integrated economy has induced greater within-country inequality (WCI). This study therefore has the objective to analyse the impact of the various dimensions of globalisation (economic, social and political) on inequality in South Africa. Secondary annual time series from 1990 to 2018 were used sourced from the World Bank Development indicators database, KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the World Inequality database. By using different measures of inequality (Palma ratios and distribution figures), the study employed two ARDL models to test the long-run relationships with the purpose to ensure the robustness of the results. Likewise, two error correction models (ECM) were used to analyse the short-run dynamics between the variables. As a means of identifying the casual effects between the variables, a Toda-Yamamoto granger causality analysis was utilised. Keywords: ARDL, Inequality, Economic Globalisation; Social Globalisation; South Africa

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Economic Development, CO2 Emissions and Energy Use Nexus-Evidence from the Danube Region Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

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