scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF POPULATION IMMIGRATION ON THE LABOUR MARKET OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

Ekonomika ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 92 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-78
Author(s):  
Gindra Kasnauskienė ◽  
Loreta Vėbraitė
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structural Vector

Abstract. The impact of immigration on the labour market has become a very important subject of public and political debates in recent years. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of immigration on the labour market of the United Kingdom in 1991–2010. Using a system of equations for immigration, unemployment, wage and gross domestic product, the structural vector error correction model and linear regression models were developed. The application of the structural vector error correction model has shown that immigration has a negative impact on the country’s labour market in the short run as it reduces real wages and increases unemployment. The linear regression models have indicated that immigration, ceteris paribus, negatively influencesunemployment and real wages in the long run.Key words: immigration, labour market, impact, short run, long run

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

Innovation, ICT penetration, trade and economic growth in developing and developed countries: a VECM approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Parul Singh ◽  
Areej Aftab Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Developed Nations

Purpose The development in information communication and technology (ICT) has led to many changes such as reorganization of economics, globalization and trade. With more innovation processes being organized and adopted across technologies, trade, etc., these are getting more closely related and needs fresh research perspective. This study aims to empirically investigate the interrelationship between ICT penetration, innovation, trade and economic growth in 20 developed and developing nations from 1995 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach The present paper examines both long-run and short-run relationships between the four variables, namely, innovation, ICT penetration, trade and economic growth, by applying panel estimation techniques of regression and vector error correction model. ICT penetration and innovation indices are constructed using principle component analysis technique. Findings The findings of the study highlight that for developed nations, growth, trade and innovation are significantly interlinked with no significant role of ICT penetration While for developing nations, significant relationship is present between growth and trade, ICT penetration and innovation. With respect to trade, in case of developed nations, significant relationship is present with ICT penetration. While for developing nations there is no significant result for trade promotion. On further employing the vector error correction model, the presence of short run causality between growth, trade and innovation in case of developed nations is established but no such causality between variables for developing nations is seen. Originality/value The present paper adds to the existing strand of literature examining interlinkage between innovation and growth by introducing new variables of ICT penetration and innovation.

Assessing the Impact of Terrorism on African Tourism Demand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheereen Fauzel ◽  
Boopen Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Many African states are relying on or have identified tourism to accelerate their growth and the continent has become the world’s second fastest growing tourist industry. However, African states have also not been spared by increasing terrorism attacks during the past decades, probably hindering the growth of this sector to certain extent. This study examines the relationship between terrorism and tourism for a sample of selected African countries over the period 1995 to 2017. Given the dynamic nature of tourism demand and the possibility of endogenous relationships in the terrorism-tourism nexus, dynamic panel data analysis, namely a Panel vector error correction model (PVECM) is employed. The results confirm that terrorism negatively affects tourism demand in Africa and this can be explained by the reactive psychology of tourists to the various aggravated terrorist attacks in the countries. Moreover, the findings show that an increase in tourism may have resulted in an increase in terrorist attacks, hence confirming a bi directional causality between tourism and terrorism.

scholarly journals Foreign capital flows, exports and growth in Zambia

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 26-37
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Growth Enhancement ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Foreign Capital Flows ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the causality between FDI net inflows, exports and GDP using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The words foreign capital flows and FDI are used interchangeably in this study. The findings from the VECM estimation technique is six fold: (1) the study revealed a long run causality relationship running from exports and GDP towards FDI, (2) the study showed a non–significant long run causality relationship running from FDI and exports towards GDP and (3) the existence of a weak long run causality relationship running from FDI and GDP towards exports in Zambia. The study also found out that no short run causality relationship that runs from FDI and exports towards GDP, short run causality running from FDI and GDP towards exports does not exist and there is no short run causality relationship running from exports and GDP towards FDI. Contrary to the theory which says that FDI brings along with it a whole lot of advantages (FDI technological diffusion and spill over effects), the current study found that the impact of FDI in Zambia is not significant in the long run. This is possibly because certain host country locational characteristics that ensures that Zambia can benefit from FDI inflows are not in place or they might be in place but still not yet reached a certain minimum threshold levels. This might be an interesting area for further research. On the backdrop of the findings of this study, the author recommends that the Zambian authorities should formulate and implement export promotion strategies and economic growth enhancement initiatives in order to be able to attract more FDI.

scholarly journals Analysis of Internal and External Determinant Variables towards Profitability of Islamic Banking in Indonesia (2014-2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-34
Author(s):  
Febri Ramadhani ◽  
Muhammad Rizkan
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Relationship Of

Indonesia is a country that adheres to a dual banking system, namely conventional and Islamic Banking. The growth rate of Islamic banking in the last three years is higher than conventional banking. However, in total assets, Islamic banking is still far behind conventional banking. Therefore, it is necessary to study further the performance of Islamic banking reflected in its profitability. So, it becomes an alternative input in determining Islamic banking policies. This study aims to know the factors affecting the profitability (ROA) of Islamic Banking in Indonesia. The data used are the 2014-2020 monthly data in the amount of 79 data. The method used in this study is a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effect of long-run and short-run relationships. The results of the study showed that the long-run relationship of the NPF variable affected and was significant positive toward ROA, CAR affected and was significant negative toward ROA, while the inflation variable had a negative relationship and not significant toward ROA. The results of the short-run relationships showed that the NPF and CAR variables positively affected ROA, while the inflation variable did not significantly affect the ROA.

Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Owusu-Nantwi ◽  
Gloria Owusu-Nantwi
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Policies And Programs

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of corruption and shadow economy on public debt in 51 African countries. In addition, the study explores the causal linkage between corruption, shadow economy and public debt.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs vector error correction model and Kao cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt in Africa.FindingsThe study finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between corruption and public debt. Further, the study reports a positive and statistically significant effect of shadow economy on public debt. In the short run, the study finds a unidirectional causal relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt with the direction of causality running from corruption and shadow economy to public debt, respectively.Practical implicationsThis study recommends that countries should pursue policies and programs that would provide resources to agencies tasked with the responsibility of fighting corruption. This would ensure that countries have effective institutions that curb vulnerabilities to corruption and reduce the size of the shadow economy and public debt.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by showing how corruption and shadow economy affects public debts of African countries. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine this relationship in the context of Africa.

MONEY SUPPLY VOLATILITY AND THE MACROECONOMY

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1392-1402
Author(s):  
Apostolos Serletis ◽  
Libo Xu
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Growth Volatility ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
Structural Vector

This paper extends the ongoing literature on the macroeconomic effects of money supply volatility. We use monthly data for the USA and a bivariate, Markov switching, structural vector error correction model that is modified to accommodate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-in-mean errors to isolate the effects of money growth volatility on output growth. The model allows us to study how monetary uncertainty affects economic growth across different macroeconomic regimes.

scholarly journals PENGARUH STRUKTUR KEPEMILIKAN DAN STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Rani Raharjanti ◽  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Ratio

This paper aims to investigate the short and long run behavior of ownership structure, capital structure and Indonesian Stock Price over the period from 2007 to 2016. To capture the long run relationships, we used the panel cointegration by Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), while the short run relationship are measured by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows. First, the result of most results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests, suggest the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In consequence, this result suggests that there is a cointegration between stock price, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, public ownership, debt to equity ratio and earnings per share. Second, the results of VECM indicate that in the short run, only managerial ownership that will influence the stock price.

CONTRACTIONARY TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1752-1789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Giuli ◽  
Massimiliano Tancioni
Keyword(s):  
Large Body ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Technology Improvement ◽  
Structural Vector

This paper adds to the large body of literature on the effects of technology shocks empirically and theoretically. Using a structural vector error correction model, we first provide evidence that not only hours but also investment decline temporarily following a technology improvement. This result is robust to important data and identification issues addressed in the literature. We then show that the negative response of inputs is consistent with an estimated monetary model in which the presence of strategic complementarity in price setting, in addition to nominal rigidities, lowers the sensitivity of prices to marginal costs, and monetary policy does not fully accommodate the shock.

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