scholarly journals The Main Determinants of Inflation in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-232
Author(s):  
Oatlhotse Madito ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This study investigated the determinants of inflation in South Africa using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2015Q4. The study was motivated by recent trends in domestic inflation that has frequently been at the upper end of the target range of between 3% and 6%, and the need to guide inflation-related policy since 2008. These recent trends raised concerns regarding the effectiveness of the current monetary policy approach in responding to internal and external factors that are significant in determining domestic inflation. Using Error Correction Model (ECM) modelling techniques, empirical results revealed that inflation expectations, labour costs, government expenditure and import prices are positive determinants, while GDP and exchange rates are negative determinants of inflation. To achieve the macroeconomic policy objective of a stable and low inflation rate for South Africa, more emphasis should be placed on anchoring inflation expectations, which was found to be highly significant in determining inflation.

scholarly journals Links or disconnect: a first consideration of inflation expectations and inflation credibility, with specific reference to South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannie Rossouw ◽  
Vishnu Padayachee ◽  
Adel Bosch
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
International Literature ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
South Africans ◽  
General Lack ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This paper compares international and domestic inflation expectations and inflation credibility, and hypothesises about a possible link or disconnect between inflation expectations and inflation credibility among South Africans.  No similar tests have previously been performed using South African data, and there is also a general lack of domestic and international literature on any such possible link or disconnect.  While research shows that inflation expectations are taken into account by all countries targeting inflation, inflation credibility is very seldom considered.  Although the hypothesis is confirmed in certain instances, it is refuted by a disconnect between the inflation expectations and inflation credibility of male and female respondents in South Africa, which cannot be explained by available data.

South Africa and the Fourth Industrial Revolution

2021 ◽  
pp. 488-509
Author(s):  
Bhaso Ndzendze ◽  
Tshilidzi Marwala
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Growth Efficiency ◽  
African Government ◽  
Fourth Industrial Revolution ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
Manual Labour ◽  
Recent Trends

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is widely predicted to transform what have been manual-labour-dominated sectors in the production of goods and offering of services while driving wages down. South Africa is largely no exception, although we also note some unevenness and contradictory trends in this chapter. 4IR also presents numerous opportunities for the South African government, businesses, and consumers in terms of economic growth, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. We conduct a review of recent trends in the 4IR worldwide and focus on such trends in South Africa through wages, key sectors, corporate sentiment, as well as government expenditure in research and development. There is indication that the country has a mismatch in the skills being produced and those required by the 4IR, while its GERD is substantially below the global average for 4IR leadership and equitable participation. 4IR Commission recommendations propose reforms, but over them looms the slow rate of implementation due to past poor execution of other plans in the digital and communications spheres.

scholarly journals Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends, determinants and comparisons (2006–2010)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
A Bosch ◽  
J Rossouw ◽  
V Padayachee
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
The Third ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Inflation Perceptions ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, and the use of inflation perceptions surveys internationally. Domestic inflation perceptions surveys among individuals are a private initiative undertaken biennially, while domestic inflation expectation surveys among individuals are funded by the South African Reserve Bank and are undertaken quarterly. By comparing the results of domestic inflation perceptions surveys and inflation expectation surveys undertaken since 2006, this paper establishes common characteristics that impact on the formulation of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the results of the 2006 and 2008 perceptions survey results. With the completion of the third biennial inflation perceptions survey in 2010, more data sets are available for the purposes of comparison. Furthermore, the questions on inflation perceptions were expanded in the third survey. Although this provides for a broader basis of analysis between inflation perceptions surveys and inflation expectation surveys, further periodic inflation perceptions survey data will be required to test whether current inflation figures determine and anchor inflation expectations.

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS: A STUDY ON MALAYSIAN MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suhaily Maizan Abdul Manaf ◽  
Shuhada Mohamed Hamidi ◽  
Nur Shafini Mohd Said ◽  
Siti Rapidah Omar Ali ◽  
Nur Dalila Adenan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Internal And External Factors

Economic performance of a country is mostly determined by the growth and any other internal and external factors. In this study, researchers purposely focused on Malaysian market by examining the relationship between export, inflation rate, government expenditure and foreign direct investment towards economic growth in Malaysia by applying the yearly data of 47 years from 1970 to 2016 using descriptive statistics, regression model and correlation method analysis. By applying Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method, the result suggests that export, government expenditure and foreign direct investment are positively and significantly correlated with the economic growth. However, inflation rate has negative and insignificant relationship with the economic growth. The outcome of the study is suggested to be useful in providing the future research direction towards the economic growth in Malaysia. Keywords: economic growth; export; inflation rate; government expenditure

Prognosticating the spread of covid-19 pandemic based on optimal arima estimators

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venuka Sandhir ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
Vikash Kumar
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Stable Case ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Threat

Background: COVID-19 cases have been reported as a global threat and several studies are being conducted using various modelling techniques to evaluate patterns of disease dispersion in the upcoming weeks. Here we propose a simple statistical model that could be used to predict the epidemiological extent of community spread of COVID-19from the explicit data based on optimal ARIMA model estimators. Methods: Raw data was retrieved on confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Johns Hopkins University (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted based on cumulative daily figures of confirmed cases aggregated globally for ten major countries to predict their incidence trend. Statistical analysis was completed by using R 3.5.3 software. Results: The optimal ARIMA model having the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value for US (0,2,0); Spain (1,2,0); France (0,2,1); Germany (3,2,2); Iran (1,2,1); China (0,2,1); Russia (3,2,1); India (2,2,2); Australia (1,2,0) and South Africa (0,2,2) imparted the nowcasting of trends for the upcoming weeks. These parameters are (p, d, q) where p refers to number of autoregressive terms, d refers to number of times the series has to be differenced before it becomes stationary, and q refers to number of moving average terms. Results obtained from ARIMA model showed significant decrease cases in Australia; stable case for China and rising cases has been observed in other countries. Conclusion: This study tried their best at predicting the possible proliferate of COVID-19, although spreading significantly depends upon the various control and measurement policy taken by each country.

scholarly journals Considering barriers to investment in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
KB Afful ◽  
CC Okeahalam
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Investment Policy ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Capital Productivity ◽  
Main Determinants

This paper examines the effect of South Africa’s economic fundamentals on net direct investment and net portfolio investment. The results suggest that the main determinants of investment in South Africa are resource prices, input productivity and the economic performance of the domestic economy. The results illustrate that net direct investment and net portfolio investment are close but not perfect substitutes. In addition, we find that an increase in labour input costs reduces both net direct investment and net portfolio investment. Further, an increase in fixed capital productivity increases net direct investment. Further, also the results illustrate that subsidies increase both net direct investment and net portfolio investment. Moreover, an increase in exports increases both net direct investment and net portfolio investment. Policy recommendations are thus proposed that may increase foreign direct investment in South Africa.

scholarly journals Competitiveness Determinants of Moroccan Exports: Quantity-Based Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilal Lotfi ◽  
Mohamed Karim
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
External Factors ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Relative Concept

<p>The term competitiveness is a relative concept whose perception changes with the level of conducted analysis (nation, sector, company). Thus, a variety of internal and external factors can have deep effects on the competitiveness of a given entity. This paper aims to evaluate the competitiveness of Moroccan exports by identifying the main determinants that explain their performance. This is particularly dealing with the impact of customs’ tariff, the tariff of import, foreign demand, the share of the non-residents in the capital of domestic enterprises and the investment rate compared to the value of exporters.</p><p>Moreover, this paper presents a literature review on competitiveness and examines the main results of our econometric analysis regarding the determinants of export competitiveness applied to the top ten branches most exporters in Morocco. The gained results allow confirming the sensitivity of exports by branch to the situation of Morocco’s main trading partner namely the European Union while emphasizing, quantitatively, on the role played by the investment effort undertaken by Moroccan exporting companies in improving the competitiveness of national exports.</p>

scholarly journals Critical Analysis of the Oversight Role of the Education Portfolio Committee in Parliament of South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. W. Manona
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Adverse Consequence ◽  
Senior Executives ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
Ruling Party

There is a prevalent assumption in South Africa that Parliament is guided by the ideals of democracy, accountability, transparency and accessibility. However, there are still gaps and challenges as far as theoversight role of Parliament is concerned, despite the presence of committees that have been established to oversee the executive and relevant structures of government, government activities and public finances. There is widespread maladministration and misuse of government expenditure in government departments. This paper investigates the oversight role of parliamentary committees to determine their relative influence on accountability and democracy in the execution of functions by public functionaries. The aim of the paper is to provide an understanding into inherent problems in the oversight role of Parliament in the democratic dispensation in South Africa, which seems not to have been given serious attention in the academia, considering the pivotal role Parliament plays in the lives of citizens of the country. These oversight committees have selectively held Senior Executives or Ministers accountable for their ineffectiveness, misuse of government expenditure and maladministration. This could be attributed to the fact that oversight in South Africa does not seem to be properly understood and implemented as it should be. Moreover, the influence of the majoritarian authority of the ruling party in committees seems to be colluding with the executive. Failure to take action against cases of omission brings questions on the effectiveness and efficiency of the oversight role of Parliament. The adverse consequence is the delay in the provision of good quality services to poor communities. This paper employed the theoretical approach as a method of data collection. Conclusions have been drawn that the shortcomings of the parliamentary committees compromise accountability and good governance in service delivery.

scholarly journals Standard of living, quality of life and per capita GDP: a South African experience

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 882-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Per Capita

This study looked at the phenomenon of the quality of life (QoL) as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), which is a composite statistic used to rank countries by the level of “human development”. Measuring and determining what is QoL is not an easy task. In this study, using HDI as the yardstick for QoL, the concepts of standard of living and per capita income were examined closely in relation to the role of government in its public expenditure programmes and how these programmes in turn influenced QoL. This research question was seen as the key to addressing the phenomenon of QoL. In particular, the role of government expenditure on health and education seems to signify the commitment of a government in improving the HDI or QoL. Using data on government expenditure of South Africa for the period 1995 to 2011, the relationships amongst these variables were examined. The findings indicate that there seems to be a significant correlation between HDI and government spending on health and education as a percentage of GDP, but there seems to be of no significance to include the variable government spending on health and education as a percentage of total government spending. The findings tell us that between 1995 and 2011, government spending on education as a percentage of GDP has had a positive impact on HDI. However, government spending on health as a percentage of GDP has had a retarding effect as shown by the negative coefficient of variation. It then implies that for South Africa to realize the MDG goals and improve on the HDI, public spending on health as a percentage of GDP needs to be significantly increased.

scholarly journals Re-testing Wagner's Law: Structural breaks and disaggregated data for South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
Mthokozisi Mlilo ◽  
Matamela Netshikulwe
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Education Expenditures ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Government

Direction of causality between government expenditure and output growth is pertinent for a developing country since a sizeable volume of economic resources is in the hands of the public sector. This paper investigates the Wagner's law in South Africa over the post-apartheid era, 1994-2015. This paper is unique to present studies since it uses disaggregated government expenditure and controls for structural breaks. The Granger non-causality test of Toda & Yamamoto, a superior technique compared to conventional Granger causality testing, is employed and this paper finds no support for Wagner's law. However, there is causality running from total government and education expenditures to output. This finding is in line with the Keynesian framework. It is recommended in the paper that the government should take an active role in promoting output growth through increases in education expenditures in particular.

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