scholarly journals The informal sector in the structure of the national economy: Simulation and evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 292-304
Author(s):  
Olga Lizina ◽  
Dinara Bistyaykina ◽  
Eka Ermakova ◽  
Tatyana Badokina ◽  
Tatiana Solovyeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Mimic Model ◽  
Government Regulations ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Simulation And Evaluation ◽  
The Impact

The research into the shadow economy has scientific and practical value. Any state is interested in evaluating the size of the shadow economy as it affects the goals and priorities of the country’s development. This study presents a model for evaluating the shadow economy in the Russian Federation. The authors developed and analyzed an approach to measuring the shadow economy based on factor analysis and a MIMIC model. The study features the factor analysis of the official statistics for Russia over the period from 1992 to 2019, with more than 150 indicators characterizing different spheres of the life of the country. The authors determined the factors affected by the shadow economy, built a MIMIC model on this basis, and estimated the size of the shadow economy in Russia. Assessing the size of shadow activity is important for analyzing economic development and the impact of government regulations on the shadow sector

scholarly journals Ways of intensification of economic growth and activation of investment activities in order to ensure the economic security of the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
Vol 284 ◽  
pp. 07015
Author(s):  
Lyudmila Kopteva ◽  
Irina Romanova ◽  
Angela Mottaeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
System Of National Accounts ◽  
The Russian Federation

Macroeconomic dynamics is in the focus of attention of the scientific community due to the fact that it characterizes the key trends in the development of the national economy. The basic indicator in the system of national accounts is the gross domestic product (GDP), which in general form is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced within the national economy. GDP is widely used in the analysis of economic growth trends. Economic growth, creating conditions for it – the most important goal of economic development, both within the framework of ensuring the economic security of the entire national economy and at the level of an individual enterprise. Nowadays, economic development is characterized by an accelerated rate of scientific and technological progress: new technologies and approaches are being created that have higher efficiency. From a microeconomic point of view, the main factors of production are labor, capital and information. Fixed capital investments (buildings, structures, machinery and equipment) are a key instrument for renewing fixed assets. Investment activity is the process of renewing the capital of an enterprise as a result of modernizing its technical and technological base, which ensures its economic security. Investments, along with government spending, are key drivers of economic growth. As a result, we can confidently assert the high importance of investment activities, both throughout the country and at the level of individual economic entities, as well as their economic independence. The paper shows the ways to intensify economic growth and intensify investment activities in order to ensure the economic security of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Alternative factor analysis of the science intensity of the invested capital in the Baikal region

2018 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. 08015
Author(s):  
Evgeny Filatov
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Baikal Region ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Scientific Center ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Science Intensity

Factor analysis is the basic tool when conducting a comprehensive analysis of economic activity. In the factor analysis, the major attention is given to the research of internal reasons that form the specificity of the phenomenon under study and identification of generalized factors standing behind relevant specific indicators. The article deals with the analysis of the science intensity of the invested capital in the Baikal region of the Russian Federation. Science intensity is an important parameter for determining the efficiency of the economic activity. The author introduced into scientific circulation the following indicators: the science intensity of the invested capital, the science intensity of the gross regional product and the investment return of the gross regional product. The paper reveals the influence of factors affecting the change in the science intensity of the invested capital in the Baikal region of the Russian Federation, and provides methodological approaches to its calculation. The article presents the author’s analytical and systematized statistical material for the analysis of the key indicators revealing the impact of the invested capital in the Baikal region of the Russian Federation on the change of the science intensity. The research has been carried out in the framework of the scientific project of the Irkutsk Scientific Center of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences No. XI.174.1.4 “Activation of the internal development potential of regions of the resource specialization (on the example of the Baikal region)”.

scholarly journals Export Potential of the National Economy: Opportunities and Limitations

2020 ◽  
pp. 103-116
Author(s):  
Evgeniy A. Gorin ◽  
Aleksandr A. Zolotarev
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
North West ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Structure And Dynamics ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Innovation Processes

Authors consider export opportunities and the structure and dynamics of industrial export and import in the Russian Federation, Northwest Russia and St. Petersburg. The article studies structural changes in sectors of St. Petersburg economy resulting from ongoing innovation processes and their impact on export potential. It provides the results of assessing the impact of organizational, economic and production factors on export opportunities of various economic entities. Export opportunities, structure and dynamics of export and import of industrial products in the Russian Federation, the North-West region and St. Petersburg are considered. Volume of exports, imports and trade turnover in Russia in 2019, as well as the dynamics of changes in recent years are discussed. In the structure of Russia's exports in recent years, the bulk of supplies (60%) were mineral products, imports the main share of exports (over 40%) occurred in the machinery, equipment and vehicles. The high needs of the national market and the significant export potential of Russian enterprises engaged in the production of medicines and modern medical equipment are noted, which makes it possible to make a real contribution to solving important social problems and developing the national economy. The structure of exports and imports of North-West Federal district and St. Petersburg by major commodity groups, there is a saving in purchases of imported equipment combined with constant growth of exports of fuel and energy products are discussed. Structural changes in the economic sectors of St. Petersburg as a result of ongoing innovation processes and their impact on export potential are studied. The results of the assessment of the impact of organizational, economic and production factors on the export opportunities of various economic entities are presented. It is revealed that for industrial enterprises, the quality and cost of components becomes a problematic factor that hinders their development both in improving the product range and in their own technological modernization. For small and medium-sized businesses in industrial production, problems related to timely receipt of high-quality materials and products of the element base from suppliers and related companies, in most cases located abroad, are added. The role of the “Russian export center” as a state institute for supporting non-commodity exports and facilitating export operations was noted.

scholarly journals Key Rate and Loan Market in Russia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Borodachev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Loan Market ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The paper proposes a mechanism for the impact of changes in the key rate on the volume of newly issued loans. The volume depends on the price (interest rates on loans), and the price depends on the key rate and the actual consumption of loans in the previous period (generalized cobweb cycle). The model was estimated by a Kalman filter, adequacy was confirmed by simulation. It is possible to forecast the average rate on loans for a month in advance according to the information published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CB). By playing various scenarios for changing the key rate, it was found that in quiet periods of economic development, the usual laws of supply and demand operate in the loan market and by raising the key rate, you can reduce inflation. In the turbulent (overheated) state of the economy, an increase in the key rate can, on the contrary, provoke an increase in the issuance of loans and unconventional manipulations with the key rate are required.

scholarly journals International Migration as a Factor of Social and Economic Development of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-46
Author(s):  
I. I. Glebkova ◽  
T. A. Dolbik-Vorobey
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
External Migration ◽  
Demographic Policy

Purpose of research. The article examines the human potential of the Russian Federation in the context of the established second wave of the demographic crisis. The article analyzes the state of the number, composition and structure of the population of the Russian Federation during the first (1992–2012) and second demographic crisis (2016 and up to the present), taking into account the factors of population reproduction (birth rate and mortality) and migration inflows to the country. Factors and causes of external migration with the CIS countries are identified, as they have been and remain the main donors for replenishing the population of the Russian Federation. On the basis of analytical indicators of dynamics and methods of statistical relationships, an assessment of external migration growth and its impact on the country's economy is carried out. Special attention is paid to measures taken at the state level to stabilize and improve migration problems.Materials and methods. The information base of the study is statistical data and analytical information on external migration flows, based on statistical surveys conducted in the country. The methodological basis of the research is represented by statistical methods of information analysis: comparative analysis, structural and dynamic analysis, analysis of the interrelationships of migration and economic indicators.Results. The article analyzes in detail the results of current events in the country during periods of demographic decline and population growth since 1992. Due to the demographic policy implemented in the country, as well as the peculiarities of the age and gender structure of the population, it is proved that the main component for population growth is still the migration inflow. Special attention is paid to external labor migration in recent years. The impact of migration growth on economic indicators (unemployment rate, real wages, index of physical volume of GDP) and the development of the economy as a whole are estimated. Also, on the scale of the State National Policy Strategy being implemented until 2025, state measures to stabilize and improve the situation in the field of migration policy are presented and analyzed.Conclusion. Due to the fact that migration policy is a defining component of demographic policy, which is currently one of the priorities of the state's development, it is advisable to regularly study external migration as one of the most important sources of replenishment of human capital and hence the development of the country's economy. Therefore, the government of the Russian Federation should pay special attention to measures to attract foreign highly qualified labor force in active working age; providing foreign students who have successfully completed their studies and defended their diplomas in Russian universities with the opportunity to find a job in our country in order to obtain Russian citizenship and create a family in Russia. As well as carrying out regular monitoring studies on adaptation of foreign citizens, taking into account regional peculiarities of development of economy of our country, because today in the conditions of demographic decline of the Russian population it is one of the main sources of economic development on the geopolitical level, as labor potential – a basis for national economic growth.

scholarly journals Cluster analysis of the impact of blockchain technologies upon the development of the sectors of national economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 15-28
Author(s):  
Marat Rashitovich Safiullin ◽  
Azat Rafikovich Sharapov ◽  
Leonid Alekseevich Elshin
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Prospects for the development of national economy in the context of integration of blockchain technologies into the system of economic processes testify necessitate elaboration of the methods and algorithms for formalized assessment of their impact upon the key parameters of socioeconomic dynamics. If within scientific-and-expert space, one may occasionally come across the works dedicated to separate aspects of this scientific methodological problem, the questions of the impact of blockchain technologies upon individual economic sectors are yet to be explored within the information-analytical and scientific space. The methods of empirical research of the impact of blockchain technologies upon the parameters of economic development currently did not find their consolidated solution, and are of fragmentary nature. This research is an attempt to strengthen the positions of formalized approaches towards examination of the articulated scientific and practical problem. The subject of this research is the economic relations of economic agents pertaining to implementation of blockchain technologies in the economic activity and formation of the new business models. The object is the types of economic activity of the national economy of the Russian Federation and their sensitivity to the diffusion of blockchain technologies. The article offers an algorithm for studying the dynamics of gross value added of the economic sectors of the Russian Federation through the prism of possible transformation of the key parameters of functionality of the financial and real sectors of the economy as a result of diffusion of blockchain technologies. Leaning on the advanced hypotheses, the author builds co-integration models for the indicated types of economic activity, which reveal the contribution of exogenous factors that are being adjusted under the pressure of infiltration of the distributed data storage technologies into the economic environment to the degree of incremental value added. This allows conducting cluster analysis of the economic sectors under review in accordance of their sensitivity to institutional changes caused by integration of the blockchain technologies into the economic environment.

THE CREATION OF THE UNION STATE OF RUSSIA AND BELARUS: ASSESSMENT OF THE SECURITY OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 117-127
Author(s):  
D. V. GORDIENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Creation ◽  
National Economies ◽  
Integration Project ◽  
The Impact

The creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus can change the level of protection of the national economy of the Russian Federation from external and internal threats. This change is due to the transformation of the ratio of economic cooperation and economic confrontation between our state and Belarus. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the implementation of the integration project of Russia and Belarus on the protection of the national economy of the Russian Federation from external and internal threats. The paper considers the impact of the creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus on the security of the national economy of the Russian Federation. For the assessment, the author's methodological approach was used, based on the consideration of various forms of ensuring the economic security of the state. An approach to assessing the level of economic security of the Russian Federation under various options for creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus is proposed. The importance of economic cooperation and economic confrontation with Belarus for ensuring the economic security of Russia is analyzed. The proposed approach to a comparative assessment of the level of economic security in Russia makes it possible to identify the priorities of economic cooperation and economic confrontation in the creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. The results of assessing the level of economic security of the Russian Federation under various options for creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus can be used to substantiate the strategy for the implementation of this integration project until 2025. It is concluded that the political structure of the Union State should correspond to the existing mutual integration ties of the national economies of our countries.

Does the investment climate rating influence the economic development of the region?

2019 ◽  
pp. 90-102
Author(s):  
Philipp S. Kartaev ◽  
Konstantin E. Polunin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Skilled Labor ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Highly Skilled ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
National Investment ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of improving the characteristics of the national investment climate rating of a subject of the Russian Federation on economic development. Based on the analysis of regional panel data for the period from 2014 to 2018, it was shown that an increase in the rating of a region is associated with an inflow of investments and an increase in GRP. One of the identified channels of this influence is associated with the market of highly skilled labor. It is demonstrated that, given the inaccessibility of detailed information about the results of the regions development to investors, the rating does not fully function as a signal to them. Based on the obtained results, the recommendations for improving the rating methodology were formulated.

scholarly journals ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGIES ON CREDIT RISKS IN THE BANKING SECTOR OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-167
Author(s):  
Marat R. SAFIULLIN ◽  
Leonid A. ELSHIN ◽  
Aliya A. ABDUKAEVA
Keyword(s):  
Data Storage ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Credit Risks ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Despite the very high interest on the part of international and national financial institutions, enterprises of the real sector of the economy in distributed data storage technologies, studies on the problems of assessing the use of the potential of blockchain platforms in the socioeconomic environment, their theoretical understanding can be met not so often. Existing works, as a rule, reveal either the technical side of the object of study, or the regulatory aspects of the applicability of blockchain technologies in the national economy. In this regard, in order to fill in questions revealing other aspects of the subject of the study, for example, such as an empirical assessment of the economic and social effects of the introduction of blockchain technologies in the activities of business entities, an attempt is made in this paper to overcome this conditional vacuum. The banking sector of the national economy of the Russian Federation was chosen as the object of research. The subject of the study is the relationship built between participants in the financial market on the basis of blockchain technologies, and the resulting effects expressed in the potential to reduce credit risks of banks due to non-fulfillment, untimely or incomplete fulfillment of financial obligations by debtors. In the course of the study, the main directions that reduce the risks under consideration, as a result of minimizing opportunistic models of behavior, are substantiated, possible economic effects for the Russian banking system as a result of the use of blockchain technologies are identified. The most important result of the work is the developed algorithm for determining the parameters for reducing the reserved capital for credit risks as a result of the penetration of blockchain technologies into the banking environment.

scholarly journals Statistical analysis of the driving forces of anthropogenic impact on the environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 208 ◽  
pp. 01017
Author(s):  
Mikhail G. Prokopyev ◽  
Anton D. Vitukhin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Anthropogenic Impact ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Technological Factor ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the study is to analyze the driving forces of the impact of human activities on the environment. The problem of assessing the influence of the population size, the level of economic development, as well as the technological factor on the volume of emissions of pollutants into the atmospheric air in the regions of the Russian Federation is considered. A retrospective of models for analyzing the main driving forces of anthropogenic impact on the environment is presented. The study is based on the STIRPAT model. The results of the econometric assessment showed that both the population and the level of economic development (GRP per capita) have a decisive influence on the increase in air emissions in the regions of the Russian Federation. A decrease in the energy intensity of GRP, as well as the share of manufacturing and extractive industries in the sectoral structure of GRP, also leads to a significant decrease in the environmental load. However, the values of the corresponding environmental elasticities are significantly lower than the elasticities of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere with changes in population size and economic growth (GRP per capita).

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