Importance of long-term experiments in studying the effects of climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 83-88
Author(s):  
N. Harnos ◽  
É. Erdélyi ◽  
T. Árendás
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Sowing Date ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Crop Growth Models ◽  
The Impact

Nowadays, studying the impact of climate change on agricultural crops is of great importance in national and international projects. Research on the effects of climate change on agricultural cultivars is supported by crop growth models. Simulations provide facilities for the low cost investigation of the effects of many factors, both independently of each other and in combination. These models require parameterisation and testing, which can be done using data measurements. In order to test the correctness of the simulations of meteorological and nutrient supply effects, it is necessary to use the results of long-term field experiments with many replicates.In the present study, the Ceres Wheat and AFRCWHEAT2 winter wheat crop growth models were tested, utilizing the data of a five-year sowing date experiment and the relevant meteorological data. An analysis was made of whether changes in the sowing date were able to influence or eliminate the negative effects of the changing climate. It was found that choosing the optimum sowing date could be the key to adapting to changing conditions.

scholarly journals Modeling impacts of climate change on spring wheat in northern India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-130
Author(s):  
SARITA KUMARI ◽  
S. BAIDYA ROY ◽  
P. SHARMA ◽  
A. SRIVASTAVA ◽  
V.K. SEHGAL ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Northern India ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to quantitatively understand the impact of changes in meteorological drivers due to climate change on spring wheat in northern India using numerical experiments with the Simple and Universal CRop growth Simulator (SUCROS) model.The model was calibrated and evaluated for spring wheat cultivar HD2967 using observed crop and meteorological data from a field site at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi. Sensitivity studies were performed with the SUCROS model by incrementally changing the meteorological drivers to understand the underlying processes through which each meteorological driver affects spring wheat crop growth. The effect of climate change on spring wheat growth was estimated by conducting numerical experiments where the SUCROS model was driven with bias-corrected projections of future climate from six climate models for two scenarios for mid and end century. Results show that competitive/synergistic interactions between meteorological drivers lead to a slight increase in growth at the beginning of the growing season, and a strong decrease of about 50 per cent during the later stage. Apart from improving our understanding of crop growth processes, this study has also policy implications for agriculture and food security in the context of climate change.

scholarly journals An Agent-Based Crop Model Framework for Heterogeneous Soils

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Jorge Lopez-Jimenez ◽  
Nicanor Quijano ◽  
Alain Vande Wouwer
Keyword(s):  
Growth Models ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Soil Heterogeneity ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Crop Growth Models ◽  
Definition Of

Climate change and the efficient use of freshwater for irrigation pose a challenge for sustainable agriculture. Traditionally, the prediction of agricultural production is carried out through crop-growth models and historical records of the climatic variables. However, one of the main flaws of these models is that they do not consider the variability of the soil throughout the cultivation area. In addition, with the availability of new information sources (i.e., aerial or satellite images) and low-cost meteorological stations, it is convenient that the models incorporate prediction capabilities to enhance the representation of production scenarios. In this work, an agent-based model (ABM) that considers the soil heterogeneity and water exchanges is proposed. Soil heterogeneity is associated to the combination of individual behaviours of uniform portions of land (agents), while water fluxes are related to the topography. Each agent is characterized by an individual dynamic model, which describes the local crop growth. Moreover, this model considers positive and negative effects of water level, i.e., drought and waterlogging, on the biomass production. The development of the global ABM is oriented to the future use of control strategies and optimal irrigation policies. The model is built bottom-up starting with the definition of agents, and the Python environment Mesa is chosen for the implementation. The validation is carried out using three topographic scenarios in Colombia. Results of potential production cases are discussed, and some practical recommendations on the implementation are presented.

scholarly journals Natural and Managed Grasslands Productivity during Multiyear in Ex-Arable Lands (in the Context of Climate Change)

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Liudmila Tripolskaja ◽  
Asta Kazlauskaite-Jadzevice ◽  
Virgilijus Baliuckas ◽  
Almantas Razukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Global Issue ◽  
Term Change ◽  
The Impact

Ex-arable land-use change is a global issue with significant implications for climate change and impact for phytocenosis productivity and soil quality. In temperate humid grassland, we examined the impact of climate variability and changes of soil properties on 23 years of grass productivity after conversion of ex-arable soil to abandoned land (AL), unfertilized, and fertilized managed grassland (MGunfert and MGfert, respectively). This study aimed to investigate the changes between phytocenosis dry matter (DM) yield and rainfall amount in May–June and changes of organic carbon (Corg) stocks in soil. It was found that from 1995 to 2019, rainfall in May–June tended to decrease. The more resistant to rainfall variation were plants recovered in AL. The average DM yield of MGfert was 3.0 times higher compared to that in the AL. The DM yields of AL and MG were also influenced by the long-term change of soil properties. Our results showed that Corg sequestration in AL was faster (0.455 Mg ha−1 year−1) than that in MGfert (0.321 Mg ha−1 year−1). These studies will be important in Arenosol for selecting the method for transforming low-productivity arable land into MG.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

Assessment of Soybeans Crop Management Strategies Using Crop Growth Models for Central Brazil

2020 ◽  
pp. 525-543
Author(s):  
Rafael Battisti ◽  
Derblai Casaroli ◽  
Jéssica Sousa Paixão ◽  
José Alves Júnior ◽  
Adão Wagner Pêgo Evangelista ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Models ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Crop Management ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Central Brazil ◽  
Crop Growth Models

scholarly journals Climate Change Controls Phosphorus Transport from the Watershed into Lake Kinneret (Israel)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Gophen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Lake Kinneret ◽  
Phosphorus Transport ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Hula Valley ◽  
Reclamation Project ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPart of the Kinneret watershed, the Hula Valley, was modified from wetlands – shallow lake for agricultural cultivation. Enhancement of nutrient fluxes into Lake Kinneret was predicted. Therefore, a reclamation project was implemented and eco-tourism partly replaced agriculture. Since the mid-1980s, regional climate change has been documented. Statistical evaluation of long-term records of TP (Total Phosphorus) concentrations in headwaters and potential resources in the Hula Valley was carried out to identify efficient management design targets. Significant correlation between major headwater river discharge and TP concentration was indicated, whilst the impact of external fertilizer loads and 50,000 winter migratory cranes was probably negligible. Nevertheless, confirmed severe bdamage to agricultural crops carried out by cranes led to their maximal deportation and optimization of their feeding policy. Consequently, the continuation of the present management is recommended.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals Sooty tern (Onychoprion fuscatus) survival, oil spills, shrimp fisheries, and hurricanes

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan M. Huang ◽  
Oron L. Bass Jr ◽  
Stuart L. Pimm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Shrimp Fishery ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Face Threats ◽  
Shrimp Fisheries ◽  
Onychoprion Fuscatus ◽  
Sooty Tern ◽  
The Impact

Migratory seabirds face threats from climate change and a variety of anthropogenic disturbances. Although most seabird research has focused on the ecology of individuals at the colony, technological advances now allow researchers to track seabird movements at sea and during migration. We combined telemetry data on Onychoprion fuscatus (sooty terns) with a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset from the Dry Tortugas National Park to map the movements at sea for this species, calculate estimates of mortality, and investigate the impact of hurricanes on a migratory seabird. Included in the latter analysis is information on the locations of recovered bands from deceased individuals wrecked by tropical storms. We present the first known map of sooty tern migration in the Atlantic Ocean. Our results indicate that the birds had minor overlaps with areas affected by the major 2010 oil spill and a major shrimp fishery. Indices of hurricane strength and occurrence are positively correlated with annual mortality and indices of numbers of wrecked birds. As climate change may lead to an increase in severity and frequency of major hurricanes, this may pose a long-term problem for this colony.

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