scholarly journals Development of the method of operational forecasting of fire in the premises of objects under real conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (10 (110)) ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
Boris Pospelov ◽  
Vladimir Andronov ◽  
Evgenіy Rybka ◽  
Mikhail Samoilov ◽  
Olekcii Krainiukov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Stability ◽  
Method Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Combustion Phase ◽  
One Step ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Sequential Implementation ◽  
Random Change

A method for operational forecasting of fires is proposed that enables the sequential implementation of five procedures. The method development is necessary to predict early fires in premises in order to take measures to prevent them from escalating into an uncontrolled combustion phase ‒ a fire. As a result of research, it was found that a short-term forecast of the recurrence of increments of the air conditions by one step, based on the current measure of recurrence, is an effective indicator of early fires in premises. At the same time, it was found that before the moment of ignition of the material, the state of the air environment is characterized by dynamic stability, which is described by an irregular and time-dependent random change in the recurrence of the states of the vector of current increments of the state of the air environment. The values of the indicated levels of recurrence of the state increments are determined by the probability levels of 0.67 and 0.1, respectively. The probability of recurrence of state increments of 0.67 is characteristic of a larger number of measured states. When the material is ignited, the dynamics of the probability of recurrence of state increments change abruptly. There is a transition from two to one level of recurrence, close to zero probability ‒ the loss of dynamic stability (in the region of count 250). Further dynamics are characterized by the appearance of separate random recurrent increments corresponding to the instability of the air environment in the premises. In the course of the experiment, it was found that the accuracy of predicting a fire by the proposed method ranges from 4.48 % to 12.79 %, which generally indicates its efficiency. The obtained data prove useful in the development of new systems that early warn of fire in premises, as well as in the modernization of existing systems and means of fire protection of premises

scholarly journals Forward flight of birds revisited. Part 2: short-term dynamic stability and trim

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 140249 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Iosilevskii
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Stability ◽  
Pitching Moment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forward Flight ◽  
Body Interaction ◽  
Centre Of Gravity ◽  
Thrust Generation ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The One ◽  
Wing Tip

Thrust generation by flapping is accompanied by alternating pitching moment. On the down-stroke, it pitches the bird down when the wings are above its centre of gravity and up when they are below; on the up-stroke, the directions reverse. Because the thrust depends not only on the flapping characteristics but also on the angle of attack of the bird's body, interaction between the flapping and body motions may incite a resonance that is similar to the one that causes the swinging of a swing. In fact, it is shown that the equation governing the motion of the bird's body in flapping flight resembles the equation governing the motion of a pendulum with periodically changing length. Large flapping amplitude, low flapping frequency, and excessive tilt of the flapping plane may incite the resonance; coordinated fore–aft motion, that uses the lift to cancel out the moment generated by the thrust, suppresses it. It is probably incited by the tumbler pigeon in its remarkable display of aerobatics. The fore–aft motion that cancels the pitching moment makes the wing tip draw a figure of eight relative to the bird's body when the wings are un-swept, and a ring when the wings are swept back and fold during the upstroke.

The Goal of the Moment (Summary of the Lecture Delivered by Ivan Ilyin in May 1917)

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 ◽  
pp. 424-428
Author(s):  
Alexandra I. Vakulinskaya
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
October Revolution ◽  
Legal Consciousness ◽  
New Order ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Moment

This publication is devoted to one of the episodes of I. A. Ilyin’s activity in the period “between two revolutions”. Before the October revolution, the young philosopher was inspired by the events of February 1917 and devoted a lot of time to speeches and publications on the possibility of building a new order in the state. The published archive text indicates that the development of Ilyin’s doctrine “on legal consciousness” falls precisely at this tragic moment in the history of Russia.

The Munich conference of Minister-Presidents of German lands in 1947

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (10-2) ◽  
pp. 86-98
Author(s):  
Ivan Popov
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
State Governments ◽  
The West ◽  
Constitutional Development ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The One

The paper deals with the organization and decisions of the conference of the Minister-Presidents of German lands in Munich on June 6-7, 1947, which became the one and only meeting of the heads of the state governments of the western and eastern occupation zones before the division of Germany. The conference was the first experience of national positioning of the regional elite and clearly demonstrated that by the middle of 1947, not only between the allies, but also among German politicians, the incompatibility of perspectives of further constitutional development was existent and all the basic conditions for the division of Germany became ripe. Munich was the last significant demonstration of this disunity and the moment of the final turn towards the three-zone orientation of the West German elite.

Perencanaan Strategi TIK Proses Belajar Mengajar di Learning Center

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-28
Author(s):  
Sunardi Sunardi ◽  
Dina Fitria Murad
Keyword(s):  
Process Improvement ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Educational Institution ◽  
Learning Center ◽  
Language Training ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Participant Satisfaction ◽  
Strategy Planning ◽  
The Moment

BINUS Center is the informal educational institution that organizes IT and language training. Inrecent years the revenue BINUS Center continues to decrease, it is evident from the outlet  BINUS Center decreased from year to year. The purpose of making this research is to make strategy planning Business & ICT, create new models of learning supported by ICT strategy,test and measure the results obtained, and then made some strategic ideas at the moment and will come in the form of short-term priorities, medium and long term. The result is a cost that can be in the efficiency, a more flexible, first-class runs with a minimal number of participants, participant satisfaction, and competitive advantage.  Keywords: business strategy, ICT strategy, business process improvement, priority.

Plebiscitary Politics and the Threats to Legality

2019 ◽  
pp. 275-289
Author(s):  
Claudius Härpfer
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
The Face ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
The Relationship

In recent times we find many plebiscitary acts that seek to democratically legitimize political processes in any direction. They have in common that they interrupt the normal routine of representative democracies to a certain degree and create an extra-daily state of affairs, which entails not only direct but also indirect consequences. The text attempts to systematize some of these mechanisms from a Weberian perspective using Brexit as an example. After a brief overview of Weber’s short-term politically inspired statements on plebiscitary democracy, the text systematizes Weber’s understanding of the state as a bureaucratic apparatus that requires any kind of leader to be controlled. Subsequently, the text discusses the relationship between domination, legality, and rationality in order to finally point out the danger of erosion of truth and legality through the emergence of competing consensus communities in the face of competing conceptions of order.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

scholarly journals IV. On double refraction in a viscous fluid in motion

1874 ◽  
Vol 22 (148-155) ◽  
pp. 46-47 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Internal Friction ◽  
Viscous Fluid ◽  
Polarized Light ◽  
Elastic Solid ◽  
The State ◽  
Solid Cylinder ◽  
Annular Space ◽  
Double Refraction ◽  
Fresh Start ◽  
The Moment

According to Poisson’s theory of the internal friction of fluids, a viscous fluid behaves as an elastic solid would do if it were periodically liquefied for an instant and solidified again, so that at each fresh start it becomes for the moment like an elastic solid free from strain. The state of strain of certain transparent bodies may be investigated by means of their action on polarized light. This action was observed by Brewster, and was shown by Fresnel to be an instance of double refraction. In 1866 I made some attempts to ascertain whether the state of strain in a viscous fluid in motion could be detected by its action on polarized light. I had a cylindrical box with a glass bottom. Within this box a solid cylinder could be made to rotate. The fluid to be examined was placed in the annular space between this cylinder and the sides of the box. Polarized light was thrown up through the fluid parallel to the axis, and the inner cylinder was then made to rotate. I was unable to obtain any result with solution of gum or sirup of sugar, though I observed an effect on polarized light when I compressed some Canada balsam which had become very thick and almost solid in a bottle.

scholarly journals Joint Discussion 4 UV astronomy: stars from birth to death

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (14) ◽  
pp. 169-194
Author(s):  
Ana I. Gómez de Castro ◽  
Martin A. Barstow
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Uv Spectroscopy ◽  
Broad Band ◽  
Mission Planning ◽  
High Resolution Spectroscopy ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Uv Astronomy ◽  
Optical Telescope ◽  
The Moment

AbstractThe scientific program is presented as well a the abstracts of the contributions. An extended account is published in “The Ultraviolet Universe: stars from birth to death” (Ed. Gómez de Castro) published by the Editorial Complutense de Madrid (UCM), that can be accessed by electronic format through the website of the Network for UV Astronomy (www.ucm.es/info/nuva).There are five telescopes currently in orbit that have a UV capability of some description. At the moment, only FUSE provides any medium- to high-resolution spectroscopic capability. GALEX, the XMM UV-Optical Telescope (UVOT) and the Swift. UVOT mainly delivers broad-band imaging, but with some low-resolution spectroscopy using grisms. The primary UV spectroscopic capability of HST was lost when the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph failed in 2004, but UV imaging is still available with the HST-WFPC2 and HST-ACS instruments.With the expected limited lifetime of sl FUSE, UV spectroscopy will be effectively unavailable in the short-term future. Even if a servicing mission of HST does go ahead, to install COS and repair STIS, the availability of high-resolution spectroscopy well into the next decade will not have been addressed. Therefore, it is important to develop new missions to complement and follow on from the legacy of FUSE and HST, as well as the smaller imaging/low resolution spectroscopy facilities. This contribution presents an outline of the UV projects, some of which are already approved for flight, while others are still at the proposal/study stage of their development.This contribution outlines the main results from Joint Discussion 04 held during the IAU General Assembly in Prague, August 2006, concerning the rationale behind the needs of the astronomical community, in particular the stellar astrophysics community, for new UV instrumentation. Recent results from UV observations were presented and future science goals were laid out. These goals will lay the framework for future mission planning.

Long-Term Deformations of Strengthened Reinforced Concrete Linear Elements

2016 ◽  
Vol 691 ◽  
pp. 51-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Krizma ◽  
Lubomir Bolha
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Long Term Results ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Linear Elements ◽  
Repeated Load ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Concrete Elements ◽  
Fiber Fabric

The issue of strengthening the damaged linear reinforced concrete elements have been engaged since 2008. We focused on the analysis of resistance and the characteristics of limit states of serviceability in the damaged and subsequently strengthened elements at a short-term loading. In the introduction phase, the strengthening of the elements was carried out with the following procedures – installation of an overlayer on the coupling board or a combination of the board and use of glass – fiber fabric (GFRP). The strengthening was also affected by the type of contact (reinforced/non-reinforced) – the deformed element/coupling board and its effect on resistance, type of deformation and serviceability. In the non-reinforced contact, we applied some of the types of adjustments to the surface of the strengthened element. At the moment, we are dealing with the effects of time and repeated load on the strengthened elements. The results correspond to the reinforced contact. The values are compared with the short-term results of the strengthened beams and with the long-term results of the beams prepared for strengthening.

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