scholarly journals Balance Model of COVID-19 Epidemic Based on Percentage Growth Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1034-1064
Author(s):  
Victor Zakharov ◽  
Yulia Balykina
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Characteristic ◽  
Dynamic Balance ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
The Past ◽  
Integer Linear Programming Problem ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Statistical Indicators ◽  
Special Algorithm

The paper examines the possibility of using an alternative approach to predicting statistical indicators of a new COVID-19 virus type epidemic. A systematic review of models for predicting epidemics of new infections in foreign and Russian literature is presented. The accuracy of the SIR model for the spring 2020 wave of COVID-19 epidemic forecast in Russia is analyzed. As an alternative to modeling the epidemic spread using the SIR model, a new CIR discrete stochastic model is proposed based on the balance of the epidemic indicators at the current and past time points. The new model describes the dynamics of the total number of cases (C), the total number of recoveries and deaths (R), and the number of active cases (I). The system parameters are the percentage increase in the C(t) value and the characteristic of the dynamic balance of the epidemiological process, first introduced in this paper. The principle of the dynamic balance of epidemiological process assumes that any process has the property of similarity between the value of the total number of cases in the past and the value of the total number of recoveries and deaths at present. To calculate the values of the dynamic balance characteristic, an integer linear programming problem is used. In general, the dynamic characteristic of the epidemiological process is not constant. An epidemiological process the dynamic characteristic of which is not constant is called non-stationary. To construct mid-term forecasts of indicators of the epidemiological process at intervals of stationarity of the epidemiological process, a special algorithm has been developed. The question of using this algorithm on the intervals of stationarity and non-stationarity is being examined. Examples of the CIR model application for making forecasts of the considered indicators for the epidemic in Russia in May-June 2020 are given.

Novel indicator for the assessment of hospital bed occupancy

2011 ◽  
Vol 152 (20) ◽  
pp. 797-801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miklós Gresz
Keyword(s):  
Patient Needs ◽  
Bed Occupancy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Hospital Bed ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
Statistical Indicators

In the past decades the bed occupancy of hospitals in Hungary has been calculated from the average of in-patient days and the number of beds during a given period of time. This is the only measure being currently looked at when evaluating the performance of hospitals and changing their bed capacity. The author outlines how limited is the use of this indicator and what other statistical indicators may characterize the occupancy of hospital beds. Since adjustment of capacity to patient needs becomes increasingly important, it is essential to find indicator(s) that can be easily applied in practice and can assist medical personal and funders who do not work with statistics. Author recommends the use of daily bed occupancy as a base for all these statistical indicators. Orv. Hetil., 2011, 152, 797–801.

Nowcasting with Data Assimilation: A Case of Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1409-1416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigenori Otsuka ◽  
Shunji Kotsuki ◽  
Takemasa Miyoshi
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Variational Techniques ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Time Extrapolation ◽  
Satellite Mapping

Abstract Space–time extrapolation is a key technique in precipitation nowcasting. Motions of patterns are estimated using two or more consecutive images, and the patterns are extrapolated in space and time to obtain their future patterns. Applying space–time extrapolation to satellite-based global precipitation data will provide valuable information for regions where ground-based precipitation nowcasts are not available. However, this technique is sensitive to the accuracy of the motion vectors, and over the past few decades, previous studies have investigated methods for obtaining reliable motion vectors such as variational techniques. In this paper, an alternative approach applying data assimilation to precipitation nowcasting is proposed. A prototype extrapolation system is implemented with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter and is tested with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) product. Data assimilation successfully improved the global precipitation nowcasting with the real-case GSMaP data.

Islamic International Relations Towards a Theoretical Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gubara Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Muslim World ◽  
The West ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
The World

The Western originators of the multi-disciplinary social sciences and their successors, including most major Western social intellectuals, excluded religion as an explanation for the world and its affairs. They held that religion had no role to play in modern society or in rational elucidations for the way world politics or/and relations work. Expectedly, they also focused most of their studies on the West, where religion’s effect was least apparent and argued that its influence in the non-West was a primitive residue that would vanish with its modernization, the Muslim world in particular. Paradoxically, modernity has caused a resurgence or a revival of religion, including Islam. As an alternative approach to this Western-centric stance and while focusing on Islam, the paper argues that religion is not a thing of the past and that Islam has its visions of international relations between Muslim and non-Muslim states or abodes: peace, war, truce or treaty, and preaching (da’wah).

scholarly journals Memristive State Equation for Bipolar Resistive Switching Devices Based on a Dynamic Balance Model and its Equivalent Circuit Representation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Miranda ◽  
Jordi Suñé
Keyword(s):  
Resistive Switching ◽  
Dynamic Balance ◽  
Electrical Stimulus ◽  
State Equation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Memory State ◽  
Bipolar Resistive Switching ◽  
Switching Device ◽  
Circuit Representation ◽  
Memristive Systems

A memory state equation consistent with several experimental observations is presented and discussed within the framework of Chua's memristive systems theory. The proposed equation describes the evolution of the memory state corresponding to a bipolar resistive switching device subjected to a variety of electrical stimulus.

Physical characterization of HfO2deposited on Ge substrates by MOCVD.

2004 ◽  
Vol 811 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Van Elshocht ◽  
B. Brijs ◽  
M. Caymax ◽  
T. Conard ◽  
S. De Gendt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Properties ◽  
Gate Dielectric ◽  
Substrate Material ◽  
Silicon Substrates ◽  
Enabling Technology ◽  
The Past ◽  
High K ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Made In

ABSTRACTGermanium is because of its intrinsically higher mobility than Si, currently under consideration as an alternative approach to improve transistor performance. Germanium oxide, however, is thermodynamically unstable, preventing formation of the gate dielectric by simple oxidation. At present, high-k dielectrics might be considered as an enabling technology as much progress has been made in the deposition of thin high-quality layers.In this paper, we study the growth and physical properties of HfO2 deposited on Ge by MOCVD, using TDEAH and O2 as precursors, and compare the results to similar layers deposited on silicon substrates. Our results show that the physical properties of MOCVD-deposited HfO2 layers on Ge are very similar to what we have observed in the past for Si. Unfortunately, some of the negative aspects observed for Si, such as diffusion of substrate material in the high-k layer, a low density for thinner layers, or a rough top surface, are also observed for the case of Ge. However, careful surface pretreatments such as NH3 annealing the Ge substrate prior to deposition, can greatly improve the physical properties. An important observation is the very thin interfacial layer between HfO2 and Ge substrate, allowing a more aggressive scaling for Ge.

Measuring shear wave velocity, Vs, of a hidden layer: an application to soil improvement under roads

2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (6) ◽  
pp. 721-731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Mulargia ◽  
Silvia Castellaro ◽  
Gianluca Vinco
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Source ◽  
Soil Improvement ◽  
Rigid Surface ◽  
Specific Kind ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Hidden Layer ◽  
The Waves ◽  
Soft Interface

In a number of practical cases, a typical one being the investigation of the subsoil properties below roads or foundations, one faces the problem of measuring the elastic properties of a geological layer (here called “hidden layer”) underlying a more compact and rigid surface layer. In such cases, the effectiveness of common surface seismic methods is poor for different reasons, but mostly linked to the reflection–transmission properties of the waves at a stiff-to-soft interface. Borehole methods are more efficient, but expensive and only provide vertical information at certain points. Attempts carried out in the past to characterize the hidden layer properties through surface seismic techniques consisted in placing the seismic source on the surface alongside, but off the stiff artificial layer (road or foundation). An alternative approach is presented based on placing the seismic source just below the stiff artificial layer. In cases where soil improvement–compaction are carried out through injection of expanding resins, then the hidden layer can be easily reached via the injecting tools and in some cases (e.g., urban settings characterized by laterally continuous artificial layers or roads constructed on embankments) this can be the only viable option. The results obtained from this approach using a number of practical cases where roads affected by differential sinking have later been compacted will be presented. The average soil improvement that can be achieved with the specific kind of expanding resin used in this study is then quantified.

Giving meaning to the addition algorithm

1972 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 345-348
Author(s):  
Irv King
Keyword(s):  
Elementary School ◽  
School Children ◽  
Elementary School Children ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Approach

In the February 1971 issue of the Arithmetic Teacher, Henry Van Engen stated his belief that the formalism of the new mathematics programs is inappropriate for elementary school children. My experiences over the past few years lend strong support to Van Engen's statement, and in this article I examine one specific use of such formalism—the attempt to give meaning to the algorithms of arithmetic. After the attempt is analyzed, an alternative approach will be presented. Although my comments apply to all four basic operations, the discussion will be restricted to the addition algorithm.

scholarly journals The New Precariousness: Temporary Migrants and the Law in Canada

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Marsden
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Worker ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Migration Status ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Economic Participation ◽  
The Law ◽  
Legislative Changes ◽  
Temporary Migrants ◽  
Migration Law

AbstractIn this article, I argue that precarious migration status can be used as an organizing concept for an analysis of (im)migration law in Canada. After situating the regulation of precarious migrants in the historical context of the liberal/neo-liberal shift of the 1970s, I argue that the increase in migrant precariousness over the past few years is likely to increase as a result of recent legislative changes in both refugee and migrant-worker law. Finally, I offer a critique of the traditional liberal argument for migrant rights, inviting an alternative approach to establish migrant rights on the basis of economic participation.

Narrative Inquiry in Applied Linguistics Research

2014 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 154-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phil Benson
Keyword(s):  
Narrative Inquiry ◽  
Language Learning ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Applied Linguistics ◽  
Foreign Language Learning ◽  
Learning And Teaching ◽  
Longitudinal Methods ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Numerous Data

The importance of narrative inquiry as an alternative approach to research in the humanities and social sciences has grown considerably over the past 20 years or so. Over the past decade, it has also become an established approach to research on second and foreign language learning and teaching through the publication of numerous data-based studies and several texts on narrative inquiry for applied linguistics. Focusing on studies published since 2008, this article outlines the scope of narrative research on language learning and teaching at the present time. It discusses recent innovations in data collection (the use of mixed and longitudinal methods and the use of narrative frames and multimodal data) and data analysis (focus on the discourse of narrative and the use of narrative writing). It concludes that these innovations represent a welcome trend toward methodological diversity that is strengthening the contribution of narrative inquiry to our understanding of the experience of language teaching and learning.

scholarly journals Exploring the synergistic relationship between research and teaching

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanne Fredericks
Keyword(s):  
Classroom Environment ◽  
Academic Setting ◽  
Teaching And Research ◽  
The Past ◽  
Single Entity ◽  
Research Relationship ◽  
Research And Teaching ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Synergistic Relationship

Even though the relationship between teaching and research has been examined extensively over the past decade, and a number of published articles and seminar based workshops exist (Hattie and Marsh, 1996) ; there continues to be a disconnect in the application and integration of these two concepts in the academic setting. This difficulty may be due to the perception that teaching and research are two separate entities that need to be fitted together (Boyer 1990). An alternative approach to understanding these two concepts is to envision them as one entity consisting of two components that feed off of each other. That is, as academics, our goal is to engage in a single entity identified as scholarly activities. These activities should present themselves as an amalgamation of teaching and research. To have a scholarly presence, an academic must not only be competent in both areas, but must consistently demonstrate the relationship between their teaching and research throughout their tenure. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of strategies academics can consider as they continue to refine and develop their program of scholarship. A summary of the relationship between teaching and research will be provided, followed by a presentation of various methods that can enhance the teaching and research relationship both within and outside of the classroom environment.

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