scholarly journals Review of Successful Practices of Applying Nowcasting in Socio-Economic Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 269-293
Author(s):  
D. V. Firsov ◽  
◽  
T. C. Chernysheva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Active Phase ◽  
Statistical Forecasting ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Short Time

A necessary competence in the present-day reality is the ability to analyze big data in the economy, and therefore one of the key issues is the choice of tools for such analysis. One of the most promising tools is nowcasting, which allows you to accurately determine economic changes in very short time periods. The aim of the study is to analyze successful modern practices of using nowcasting for statistical forecasting of socio-economic indicators. The hypothesis of the research lies in the assumption that nowcasting as a method of macroeconomic analysis can in the near future become a worthy alternative to traditional methods of analysis and statistical forecasting of indicators of socio-economic development, increasing the accuracy of their forecasting. The methodological basis of the study was the scientific works and applied developments of leading domestic and foreign scientists in the field of economic forecasting using statistics of search queries, as well as methods of comparative and statistical analysis, and the systematic approach. The novelty of the results obtained lies in the systematization and description of successful practices of using nowcasting and forecasting indicators using query statistics. The study highlights the basic principle of nowcasting, which is to obtain a more accurate assessment of the state of the economy as new data becomes available. It also describes the key statistical models used as tools for testing in foreign countries. As a result of the study, we highlight the importance of the analysis of statistical search queries, especially in the context of their correlation with classical survey metrics and general statistics. It is in an active phase of development, especially within the framework of the domestic forecasting practice. The results obtained can be applied both in a corporate environment and in the public sector to build macroeconomic forecasts.

Guest is God

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drew Thomases
Keyword(s):  
Everyday Life ◽  
Sacred Space ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Ethnographic Fieldwork ◽  
Northwestern India ◽  
Gathering Place ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Town

This book is based on ethnographic fieldwork in Pushkar, a Hindu pilgrimage site in northwestern India whose population of 20,000 sees an influx of two million visitors each year. Since the 1970s, the town has also received considerable attention from international tourists, a group with distinctly hippie beginnings but that now includes visitors from a wide spectrum of social positions and religious affiliations. To locals, though, Pushkar is more than just a gathering place for pilgrims and tourists: it is where Brahma, the creator god, made his home; it is where pilgrims feel blessed to stay, if only for a short time; and it is where Hindus would feel lucky to be reborn, if only as an insect. In short, it is their paradise. But even paradise needs upkeep. Thus, on a daily basis the town’s locals, and especially those engaged in pilgrimage and tourism, work to make Pushkar paradise. The book explores this massive enterprise to build “heaven on earth,” paying particular attention to how the articulation of sacred space becomes entangled with economic changes brought on by globalization and tourism. As such, the author not only attends to how tourism affects everyday life in Pushkar but also to how Hindu ideas determine the nature of tourism there; the goal, then, is to show how religion and tourism can be mutually constitutive.

How is Government Stability Affected by the State of the Economy? Payoff Structures, Government Type and Economic State

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 280-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Hellström ◽  
Daniel Walther
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
The State ◽  
General Effect ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽  
State Of The Economy

To what extent are incumbent governments affected by the state of the economy when it comes to premature dissolution? This article investigates this research question using a data set on parties and governments for 18 West European countries for the period 1945–2013. In addition to investigating the general effect of the state of the economy on government termination, we hypothesize that macroeconomic conditions affect cabinet termination in different ways depending on the type of government that is in power. Using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate how different government types are impacted by the same changes in the economy, our results indicate that economic changes do matter, but that they mainly affect coalition governments. Our results also indicate that there is a difference between minority and majority governments when it comes to the type of termination. Minority coalition governments resolve to early elections, not replacements, presumably because a minority government does not survive defection. Majority coalition governments, in contrast, show sensitivity towards both types of terminations.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORT CHALLENGES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

Transport ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jurgita Barysienė ◽  
Nijolė Batarlienė ◽  
Darius Bazaras ◽  
Kristina Čižiūnienė ◽  
Daiva Griškevičienė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Processes ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Changing Environment ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Transport Management

The rapidly changing world determines changes in the business processes. Logistics and transport are the areas facing constant changes. Therefore, an important point is to analyse the current problems of logistics and transport within the context of the changing environment. For many years, the experts of the Dept of Logistics and Transport Management of the Faculty of Transport Engineering from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University have been pursuing research both, in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) in Lithuania and foreign countries. This research has been directed toward improvements to logistics and the entire supply chain in pursuit of economic, social and ecological competitiveness, an increase in the competitiveness and attractiveness of the transport system in the context of sustainable development, the impact of this system on the economic and social welfare of society, an increase in the competitiveness and attractiveness of the transport sector of improving the legal framework and the application of innovative technologies (including IT) in the transport sector aimed at implementing economic and social cohesion goals. The article deals with some of the key issues of the above introduced research.

THE CONCEPT OF RECYCLING OF AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY AND THE GENERAL PRINCIPLES OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (144) ◽  
pp. 72-81
Author(s):  
Yuriy V. Katayev ◽  
◽  
Valeriy S. Gerasimov ◽  
Vladimir I. Ignatov ◽  
Nikolay K. Baulin
Keyword(s):  
Research Purpose ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Agricultural Machinery ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Specific System ◽  
Effective Utilization ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Environmental Measures ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Working Out

In a broad sense, the utilization of agricultural machinery is a set of technical, organizational, economic, legal, financial and environmental measures to ensure the effective utilization of agricultural machinery, its aggregates (compo-nents of the technical base) at the final stage of the life cycle in order to maximize involvement in economic turnover. (Research purpose) The research purpose is in analyzing the work of foreign and domestic authors related to the formation of a resource-saving, environmentally-oriented system for recycling equipment. (Materials and methods) The article presents diverse studies in various areas, in which various materials and methods were used. Authors used a large amount of data characterizing the possibilities of creating a system for recycling agricultural ma-chinery in the agro-industrial complex of Russia, based on the state of the agricul-tural machine-tractor fleet, its age characteristics and the ability of engineering enterprises to carry out this type of activity. The obtained information was processed using statistical analysis methods. (Results and condemnation) The developed con-cept determines the necessity of creating a specific (industry-specific) system for the disposal of agricultural machinery in the agro-industrial complex of Russia as a component of a unified system for the disposal of machinery. (Conclusions) The conducted research showed that Russia is significantly lagging behind foreign countries in solving the problem of recycling equipment, so the best option can be considered to be working out the recycling mechanism in the process of building a local (industry) recycling system at the regional level. This will allow us to work out the elements of the national system for the disposal of decommissioned equip-ment in a relatively short time with minimal expenditure of various kinds of resources. The article presents the amount of subsidies for the creation of a specific system for the disposal of agricultural machinery in Russia.

scholarly journals Expectations, Coordination Failures and Macro Crises

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Heymann ◽  
Juan Pablo Brichetti ◽  
Pedro Juarros ◽  
Gustavo Montero
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Central Element ◽  
Critical Periods ◽  
Social Concern ◽  
Coordination Failures ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
The People ◽  
Long Time ◽  
High Degree

AbstractDeep recessions and disruptions in credit markets have caused social concern and motivated research for a long time. They still challenge macroeconomic analysis. We map some observable features of a set of such episodes, trying to find common elements of the whole family of events. The different macroeconomic experiences show a high degree of heterogeneity. Given that, what emerges as a central element of crises is their character as a life-changing episode for the people concerned, which remains in their memory and triggers a search for lessons, as they frustrate past expectations and force widespread reevaluations of wealth and income prospects. Critical periods involve dynamics at different time scales, as economic changes with lasting implications take place in an environment of dramatic day-to-day variability. Crises tend to be associated with breaks in the growth trends of the economies in question, in a way that may surprise not only agents inclined to eccentric behavior, but also those who held beliefs based on prevalent economic analysis. Macroeconomic disturbances of this sort raise strong questions about the pertinence, and the logic, of usual rational expectations assumptions and modeling practices. These issues are briefly discussed in an opening section.

scholarly journals STUDY OF ETHNIC AND REGIONAL FEATURES OF DERMATOGLYPHIC PARAMETERS OF HANDS AND FEET (LITERATURE REVIEW)

2020 ◽  
pp. 216-221
Author(s):  
I. V. Gunas ◽  
O. V. Dunayev ◽  
O. G. Popadynets ◽  
R. V. Kozoviy ◽  
E. O. Kindrativ
Keyword(s):  
Financial Burden ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Gene Pools ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
Regional Features ◽  
The World ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
Hands And Feet ◽  
Short Time

Abstract. The article outlines the prospects for studying the ethnic and regional features of dermatoglyphic parameters of hands and feet, given the intensification of migration processes both within Ukraine and worldwide, which each year causes a catastrophic increase in the number of people living outside the country or region origin. Refugees, labor and political migrants, migrants due to racial discrimination and other reasons today make up 3% of the world's population. The growing flow of world migration and assimilation creates all the conditions for the disappearance of pure ethnic groups and peoples. Therefore, modern scientists are interested in the availability of anthropometric, anthroposcopic, dermatoglyphic data of different populations to create regional gene pools. In the context of the above issues, the issue related to the study of anthroposcopic, anthropometric, dermatoglyphic parameters of the population of Ukraine, taking into account regional and ethno-territorial affiliation, remains relevant. The article also identifies the advantages of using the dermatoglyphic method, which include ease of use, financial burden and the ability to obtain results in a short time. A thorough analysis of the literature on this issue, based on which the main directions of application of dermatoglyphics. It has been determined that dermatoglyphic has been the subject of research by specialists in various fields of knowledge form overe the century. Based on the results of studying the features of dermatoglyphic, anthropometric and anthroposcopic parameters, scientists have proposed a zoning scheme of the territory of Ukraine.The results obtained by studying the comb pattern of human hands and feet still remain an informative source in medicine, criminology, anthropology and population genetics. Genetic conditionality of dermatoglyphic parameters allows to use dermatoglyphics to solve a number of issues that arise during ethno anthropological and population-genetic studies. Dermatoglyphics is widely used in medicine: clinical (in predicting the likelihood of various pathological conditions) sports (in determining the physical capabilities of the person). In the practice of forensic medicine, dermatoglyphics has until recently been used in the examination of disputed paternity, but in recent decades it has also been actively used in determining family affiliation, analysis of family ties with subsequent use of data to identify unknown persons parameters of relatives. A number of Ukrainian scientists who studied the ethnic features of dermatoglyphic, anthropometric and anthroposcopic parameters, their contribution to Ukrainian ethnodermatoglyphics and outlined prospects for study were identified in the literature analysis. The main key issues considered by scientists from other countries of the world are also identified, the method of studying the ethnic and territorial features of dermatoglyphic, anthropometric and anthroposcopic parameters used by them is evaluated and the results obtained by them are analyzed. Іn the context of the above, it should be noted that the study of ethnological, regional features of dermatoglyphic parameters of the hands and feet is relevant among the world scientific community. However, currently there are too few works by domestic authors devoted to the study of regional and ethno-territorial features of dermatoglyphic parameters, although given the intensification of migration processes, the prospects for its study are outlined.

A New Macroeconomic Architecture for the Stock Market

2014 ◽  
pp. 1521-1538
Author(s):  
Masudul Alam Choudhury
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
General System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Financial Architecture ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Emergent Structure

The old idea of segmented macroeconomics of the financial sector competing with the real economy is replaced by a new model, which manifests strong interaction, integration and co-evolution by circular causation relations between the monetary sector and the real economy with the bridging function of finance and financial instruments. The Money, Finance, Spending and Real Economy (MFSRE) model emerges. This model formalizes the new architecture for the macroeconomy, and its relationship to the stock market. In this model relating to a reconstructed state of the economy and the emergent structure of the financial architecture, money and spending are treated as complementary elements of growth and development. The overarching structure in the end is the MFSRE with its extensively complementary inter-variables relationship in a general system and cybernetic form of interrelationships. The economic organization of the MFSRE causes price stabilization and economic growth and development. These are signified in the social wellbeing criterion of the good economy. The stock market, exemplified by the empirical case study of Bangladesh's state of the economy and the Dhaka Stock Exchange, bring out the true example of the macroeconomic analysis. The new financial architecture with its stabilization, sustainability and growth and wellbeing as basic-needs regime of development is contrasted with old macroeconomic belief and policies based on outmoded macroeconomic beliefs and futures.

scholarly journals The 2019 Australian election

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
National Party ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Party Government ◽  
Government Services ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opinion Polls

Opinion polls suggested that Australia’s Coalition (Liberal and National Party) government was likely to be replaced by a Labor government at the 2019 election. However, in fact the government was returned. Key issues in the 2019 election centred around managing the economy, including levels of taxation and issues of inequality; around spending on government services such as health and education; and around issues of climate change. There were elements of populism in both major parties’ campaigns, and two minor populist parties played a significant role in preference distribution. There were also some simmering issues that reflect the broader geopolitical and geo-economic changes that are impacting upon Australia. These include not only challenges for Australia’s economy and identity in the ‘Asian Century’, but also issues of Australia’s relationship with China.

scholarly journals Detection of 15 bursts from the fast radio burst 180916.J0158+65 with the upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope

2020 ◽  
Vol 499 (1) ◽  
pp. L16-L20 ◽  
Author(s):  
V R Marthi ◽  
T Gautam ◽  
D Z Li ◽  
H-H Lin ◽  
R A Main ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radio Telescope ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Short Time Scale ◽  
Imaging Data ◽  
Burst Source ◽  
Very Large Array ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Fast Radio Burst ◽  
The Times ◽  
Short Time

ABSTRACT We report the findings of an upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (uGMRT) observing campaign for FRB 180916.J0158+65, which was recently found to show a 16.35-d periodicity of its active cycle. We observed the source at 550–750 MHz for ∼2 h during each of three successive cycles at the peak of its expected active period. We find 0, 12 and 3 bursts, respectively, implying a highly variable bursting rate even within the active phase. We consistently detect faint bursts with spectral energies only an order of magnitude higher than the Galactic burst source SGR 1935+2154. The times of arrival of the detected bursts rule out many possible aliased solutions, strengthening the findings of the 16.35-d periodicity. A periodicity search over a short time-scale returned no highly significant candidates. Two of the beamformer-detected bursts were bright enough to be clearly detected in the imaging data, achieving subarcsec localization, and proving to be a proof-of-concept for FRB imaging with the GMRT. We provide a 3σ upper limit of the persistent radio flux density at 650 MHz of 66 μJy, which, combined with the European VLBI Network and Very Large Array limits at 1.6 GHz, further constrains any potential radio counterpart. These results demonstrate the power of the uGMRT for providing targeted observations to detect and localize known repeating FRBs.

A New Macroeconomic Architecture for the Stock Market A General-System and Cybernetic Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masudul Alam Choudhury
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
General System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Financial Architecture ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Emergent Structure

The old idea of segmented macroeconomics of the financial sector competing with the real economy is replaced by a new model, which manifests strong interaction, integration and co-evolution by circular causation relations between the monetary sector and the real economy with the bridging function of finance and financial instruments. The Money, Finance, Spending and Real Economy (MFSRE) model emerges. This model formalizes the new architecture for the macroeconomy, and its relationship to the stock market. In this model relating to a reconstructed state of the economy and the emergent structure of the financial architecture, money and spending are treated as complementary elements of growth and development. The overarching structure in the end is the MFSRE with its extensively complementary inter-variables relationship in a general system and cybernetic form of interrelationships. The economic organization of the MFSRE causes price stabilization and economic growth and development. These are signified in the social wellbeing criterion of the good economy. The stock market, exemplified by the empirical case study of Bangladesh’s state of the economy and the Dhaka Stock Exchange, bring out the true example of the macroeconomic analysis. The new financial architecture with its stabilization, sustainability and growth and wellbeing as basic-needs regime of development is contrasted with old macroeconomic belief and policies based on outmoded macroeconomic beliefs and futures.

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