Soybean yield in the Matopiba region under climate changes

ABSTRACT The climatic conditions along the cycle are the main factors responsible for the final production of any crop. This study aimed to evaluate the current conditions and the effects of climate change scenarios on the yield of soybean grown in the Matopiba region, located between the states of Tocantins, south and northeast of Maranhão, south of Piauí and west of Bahia, Brazil. The AquaCrop model of FAO, version 5.0, was calibrated with data of 2014 and validated with those of 2016, using climate, soil and crop management parameters collected in two experimental campaigns conducted between June and October in 2014 and 2016 in Palmas, TO, Brazil. The performance of the model was evaluated using the following statistical indicators: prediction error (PE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (EF) and Willmott’s index of agreement (d). It was verified that the AquaCrop model underestimates soybean grain yield under severe water stress conditions throughout the growing cycle. The increase in CO2 concentration and in the air temperature, projected by the climate models HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 under the scenario of stabilization (RCP 4.5) and the scenario of progression (RCP 8.5), have contributed to the increase in soybean yield by the end of this century.

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Evaluating Hydrological Models for Deriving Water Resources in Peninsular Spain

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11102872 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2872 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽

Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽

Francisco Segura-Méndez ◽

David Pulido-Velazquez ◽

Raghavan Srinivasan

Keyword(s):

Aridity Index ◽

Information Criterion ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Efficiency Coefficient ◽

Run Off ◽

Margin Of Error ◽

Model Efficiency ◽

Flow Duration Curves ◽

Peninsular Spain

Water availability is essential for the appropriate analysis of its sustainable management. We performed a comparative study of six hydrological balance models (Témez, ABCD, GR2M, AWBM, GUO-5p, and Thornthwaite-Mather) in several basins with different climatic conditions within Spain in the 1977–2010 period. We applied six statistical indices to compare the results of the models: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), and the relative error between observed and simulated run-off volumes (REV). Furthermore, we applied the FITEVAL software to determine the uncertainty of the model. The results show that when the catchments are more humid the obtained results are better. The GR2M model gave the best fit in peninsular Spain in a UNEP aridity index framework above 1, and NSE values above 0.75 in a 95% confidence interval classify GR2M as very good for humid watersheds. The use of REV is also a key index in the assessment of the margin of error. Flow duration curves show good performance in the probabilities of exceedance lower than 80% in wet watersheds and deviations in low streamflows account for less than 5% of the total streamflow.

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Analysis of low flow indices under varying climatic conditions in Poland

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2017.021 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 49 (2) ◽

pp. 373-389 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Marzena Osuch ◽

Renata Romanowicz ◽

Wai K. Wong

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Low Flow ◽

Test Results ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Objective Functions ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Rainfall Runoff Model ◽

Runoff Model ◽

Simulated Time

Abstract Changes in low flow indices under future climates are estimated for eight catchments in Poland. A simulation approach is used to derive daily flows under changing climatic conditions, following RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The HBV rainfall–runoff model is used to simulate low flows. The model is calibrated and validated using streamflow observations from periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2010. Two objective functions are used for calibration: Nash–Sutcliffe and log transformed Nash–Sutcliffe. Finally, the models are run using the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data simulated by GCM/RCM models for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. We estimate low flow indices for the simulated time series, including annual minima of 7-day mean river flows and number, severity and duration of low flow events. We quantify the biases of low flow indices by N-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) analysis and Tukey test. Results indicate a large effect of climate models, as well as objective functions, on the low flow indices obtained. A comparison of indices from the two future periods with the reference period 1971–2000 confirms the trends obtained in previous studies, in the form of a projected decrease in the frequency and intensity of low flow events.

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Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12897 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Kummu ◽

Matias Heino ◽

Maija Taka ◽

Olli Varis ◽

Daniel Viviroli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Production Areas ◽

Global Food

<p>The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.</p>

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Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10090773 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 773 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jiufeng Wei ◽

Xiaozhou Li ◽

Yunyun Lu ◽

Ling Zhao ◽

Hufang Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Invasive Pest ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Future Potential ◽

Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽

Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

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CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-84-12-1711 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 84 (12) ◽

pp. 1711-1724 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Michael C. MacCracken ◽

Eric J. Barron ◽

David R. Easterling ◽

Benjamin S. Felzer ◽

Thomas R. Karl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Twentieth Century ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

First Century ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

National Assessment ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

The U.S

In support of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, climate scenarios were prepared to serve as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of environmental and societal systems to changes projected for the twenty-first century. Since publication of the results of the assessment at the end of 2000, the National Research Council's report Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, and the U.S. government's U.S. Climate Action Report—2002 have both relied on the assessment's findings. Because of the importance of these findings, it is important to directly address questions regarding the representativeness and usefulness of the model-based projections on which the findings were based. In particular, criticisms have focused on whether the climate models that were relied upon adequately represented twentieth-century conditions and whether their projections of conditions for the twenty-first century were outliers. Reexamination of the approach used in developing and evaluating the climate scenarios indicates that the results from the two primary climate modeling groups that were relied upon allowed the generation of climate scenarios that span much of the range of possible future climatic conditions projected by the larger set of model simulations, which was compiled for the IPCCs Third Assessment Report. With the set of models showing increasing agreement in their simulations of twentieth-century trends in climate and of projected changes in climate on subcontinental to continental scales, the climate scenarios that were generated seem likely to provide a plausible representation of the types of climatic conditions that could be experienced during the twenty-first century. Warming, reduced snow cover, and more intense heavy precipitation events were projected by all models, suggesting such changes are quite likely. However, significant differences remain in the projection of changes in precipitation and of the regional departures in climate from the larger-scale patterns. For this reason, evaluating potential impacts using climate scenarios based on models exhibiting different regional responses is a necessary step to ensuring a representative analysis. Utilizing an even more encompassing set of scenarios in the future could help move from mainly qualitative toward more certain and quantitative conclusions.

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Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Saemangeum Watershed, South Korea

Water ◽

10.3390/w11101982 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 1982 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ting Li ◽

Gwangseob Kim

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Korea ◽

Point Source ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Pollutant Loads ◽

Monthly Streamflow ◽

Rcp 8.5

Non-point source (NPS) pollution is a primary cause of water pollution in the Saemangeum watershed in South Korea. The changes in NPS pollutant loads in the Saemangeum watershed for an 81-year period (2019–2099) were simulated and analyzed by applying the soil and water assessment tool. Six climate model (BCC-CSM1–1, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-CC, INM-CM4, and MIROC-ESM) outputs using representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were obtained from the South Korean Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center. Simulated streamflow and water quality were evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and coefficient of determination (R2). The model satisfactorily simulated streamflow with positive NSE values and R2 > 0.5. Based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), gradual increases of 70.9 to 233.8 mm and 1.7 to 5.7 °C in annual precipitation and temperature, respectively, are likely for two time periods (2019–2059 and 2060–2099). Additionally, the expected future average annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and total phosphorus showed changes of 5% to 43%, 3% to 40%, and −55% to 15%, respectively, whereas the expected future average annual and monthly total nitrogen showed decreases of −5% to −27%. Future NPS pollutant loads in the Saemangeum watershed should be managed according to different climate change scenarios.

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CO2-response function of radiation use efficiency in rice for climate change scenarios

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira ◽

10.1590/s0100-204x2012000700001 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 47 (7) ◽

pp. 879-885 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Nereu Augusto Streck ◽

Hamilton Telles Rosa ◽

Lidiane Cristine Walter ◽

Michel Rocha da Silva ◽

Lilian Osmari Uhlmann

Keyword(s):

Response Function ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

Co2 Concentration ◽

Atmospheric Co2 ◽

Radiation Use Efficiency ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽

Use Efficiency ◽

Radiation Use

The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.

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Climate suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) in Malawi using climate change scenarios

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0257007 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (9) ◽

pp. e0257007

Author(s):

Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽

Kadmiel Maseyk ◽

Shonil A. Bhagwat ◽

Kauê de Sousa ◽

Andrew Emmott ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northern Region ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Food Sources ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Crop Species ◽

Cascading Effects ◽

Central Regions ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Climate Suitability

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people reliant upon those crop species as food sources and for income generation. Macadamia is one of Malawi’s most important and profitable crop species; however, climate change threatens its production. Thus, this study’s objective is to quantitatively examine the potential impacts of climate change on the climate suitability for macadamia in Malawi. We utilized an ensemble model approach to predict the current and future (2050s) suitability of macadamia under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for macadamia (AUC = 0.9). The climatic variables that strongly influence macadamia’s climatic suitability in Malawi are suggested to be the precipitation of the driest month (29.1%) and isothermality (17.3%). Under current climatic conditions, 57% (53,925 km2) of Malawi is climatically suitable for macadamia. Future projections suggest that climate change will decrease the suitable areas for macadamia by 18% (17,015 km2) and 21.6% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with the distribution of suitability shifting northwards in the 2050s. The southern and central regions of the country will suffer the greatest losses (≥ 8%), while the northern region will be the least impacted (4%). We conclude that our study provides critical evidence that climate change will reduce the suitable areas for macadamia production in Malawi, depending on climate drivers. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience among producers.

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Simulating adaptation strategies to offset potential impacts of climate variability and change on maize yields in Embu County, Kenya

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0241147 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (11) ◽

pp. e0241147

Author(s):

Sridhar Gummadi ◽

M. D. M. Kadiyala ◽

K. P. C. Rao ◽

Ioannis Athanasiadis ◽

Richard Mulwa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Climate Variability And Change ◽

Cmip5 Climate Models ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Maize Yields ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

In this study, we assessed the possible impacts of climate variability and change on growth and performance of maize using multi-climate, multi-crop model approaches built on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols in five different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Embu County in Kenya and under different management systems. Adaptation strategies were developed that are locally relevant by identifying a set of technologies that help to offset potential impacts of climate change on maize yields. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Two widely used crop simulation models, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on maize. Results showed that 20 CMIP5 models are consistent in their projections of increased surface temperatures with different magnitude. Projections by HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC-ESM tend to be higher than the rest of 17 CMIP5 climate models under both emission scenarios. The projected increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) which ranged between 2.7 and 5.8°C is higher than the increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) that varied between 2.2 and 4.8°C by end century under RCP 8.5. Future projections in rainfall are less certain with high variability projections by GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M suggest 8 to 25% decline in rainfall, while CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and BNU-ESM suggested more than 85% increase in rainfall under RCP 8.5 by end of 21st century. Impacts of current and future climatic conditions on maize yields varied depending on the AEZs, soil type, crop management and climate change scenario. Impacts are largely negative in the low potential AEZs such as Lower Midlands (LM4 and LM5) compared with the high potential AEZs Upper Midlands (UM2 and UM3). However, impacts of climate change are largely positive across all AEZs and management conditions when CO2 fertilization is included. Using the differential impacts of climate change, a strategy to adapt maize cultivation to climate change in all the five AEZs was identified by consolidating those practices that contributed to increased yields under climate change. We consider this approach as more appropriate to identify operational adaptation strategies using readily available technologies that contribute positively under both current and future climatic conditions. This approach when adopted in strategic manner will also contribute to further strengthen the development of adaptation strategies at national and local levels. The methods and tools validated and applied in this assessment allowed estimating possible impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.

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Aptidão climática da mangueira frente ao clima atual e aos cenários futuros (Climatic aptitude for mango crop under actual and future climate scenarios)

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física ◽

10.26848/rbgf.v8.0.p496-509 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. 496 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Magna Soelma Beserra de Moura ◽

Leide Dayane da Silva Oliveira ◽

Sílvio Roberto Medeiros Evangelista ◽

Maria Aparecida do Carmo Mouco ◽

Luciana Sandra Bastos de Souza ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Models ◽

Mangifera Indica ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a aptidão climática para a cultura da manga para o clima atual e cenários futuros do IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas) no Brasil. As condições climáticas ideais para a cultura da manga utilizados neste estudo foram padronizadas para o Brasil de acordo com documentos Zoneamento de Riscos Climáticos Agrícola. Para o zoneamento futuro da manga foram utilizados os dados de temperatura do ar e precipitação gerar por PRECIS e modelos ETA-CPTEC para os cenários de altas e baixas emissões de dióxido de carbono do IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas), para as condições atuais (de base), 2025 e 2055. Foi utilizado sistema de informação geográfica para elaborar os mapas e tabelas. Os resultados indicam que pode haver reduções nas áreas apropriadas para o cultivo de manga no Brasil, considerando-se os modelos climáticos gerados pelo ETA e PRECIS. Assim, o manejo da cultura da manga deve ser adaptado para tornar possível obter produção satisfatória em cenários de baixa disponibilidade hídrica e aumento da temperatura. This work aimed to analyze the climatic aptitude for mango crop to the current climate and future IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in Brazil. The optimal climatic conditions for mango crop used in this study were standardized for Brazil according to Agricultural Zoning Climate Risk documents. For the future mango zoning was used the data of air temperature and precipitation generate by PRECIS and ETA-CPTEC models in concern to scenarios of high and low emissions of carbon dioxide of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), for current conditions (Baseline), 2025 and 2055. It was used geographic information systems to elaborate the maps and tables. The results indicate that there may be reductions in the areas suitable for the cultivation of mango in Brazil, considering the climate models generated by ETA and PRECIS. Thus, the mango crop management should be adapted to make possible obtain satisfactory production under scenarios of lower water availability and increased temperature. Keywords: Mangifera indica L., climate change, agroclimatic zoning.

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