scholarly journals Projections of climate change in streamflow and affluent natural energy in the Brazilian hydroelectric sector of CORDEX models

RBRH ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marx Vinicius Maciel da Silva ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Greicy Kelly da Silva ◽  
Wanderson Hugues de Vasconcelos Pedrosa ◽  
Antônio Duarte Marcos Júnior ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Interconnected System ◽  
Soil Moisture Accounting ◽  
The North ◽  
Natural Energy ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Long-term water and energy planning makes it possible to reduce social and economic impacts by avoiding episodes of interruption in water and electricity supply, essential services for several sectors. Thus, the analyses proposed by this study aimed at identifying the impact of climate change on naturalised streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (NEA) projections for the Brazilian electricity sector using six models of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. The streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the NEA. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and NEA for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast and Southeast/Midwest sectors. Meanwhile, in the Southern sector, for the period 2010-2039, most of the models indicated an increase in the annual naturalized streamflows and NEA.

scholarly journals Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marx Vinicius Maciel da Silva ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Samuellson Lopes Cabral ◽  
Antônio Duarte Marcos Júnior ◽  
Greicy Kelly da Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Interconnected System ◽  
Soil Moisture Accounting ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Natural Energy ◽  
Change Projects ◽  
Accounting Procedure

Abstract Climate change projects an increase in extreme weather events in the coming decades, which could significantly affect Brazil's water and energy security. Thus, this study sought to analyze possible impacts of climate change on the projections of naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian hydropower sector utilizing five models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects version 6 (CMIP6), based on SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Naturalized streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the ANE. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and ANE for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast, and Southeast/Midwest sectors of Brazil. Meanwhile, the Northern and Southern sectors, for the period 2080–2099, most of the models indicated an increase of annual, precipitation, naturalized streamflows and ANE.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga ◽  
Ladslaus Chang'a ◽  
George Djolov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change impact on hydrology of a transboundary river of Bhutan and India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phub Zam ◽  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Aakanchya Budhathoki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Transboundary River ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Assessing the impacts of climate change on a transboundary river plays an important role in sustaining water security within as well as beyond the national boundaries. At times, the unilateral decision taken by one country can increase the risk of negative effect on the riparian countries and if the impact is felt strongly by the other country, it can lead to international tension between them. This study examines the impact of climate change on hydrology between a shared river which is Wangchu river in Bhutan and Raidak river in India. The river is mainly used to produce hydropower in the two largest hydropower plants on which the majority of Bhutan's economic development depends and is mainly used for agriculture in India. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for future flow simulation. Future climate was projected for near future (NF) from 2025–2050 and far future (FF) from 2074–2099 using an ensemble of three regional climate models (ACCESS, CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario. The ensemble results indicated that, in future, the study area would become warmer with temperature increase of 1.5 °C under RCP 4.5 and 3.6 °C under RCP 8.5. However, as per RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, rainfall over the study area is projected to decrease by 1.90% and 1.38% respectively. As a consequence of the projected decrease in rainfall, the flow in river is projected to decrease by 5.77% under RCP 4.5 and 4.73% under RCP 8.5. Overall, the results indicated that the degree of hydrological change is expected to be higher, particularly for low flows in both Wangchu and Raidak River. Since transboundary water is a shared for economic growth, climate change adaptation and opportunities should also be considered by both the nations for better water management.

scholarly journals Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7120
Author(s):  
Alberto Martínez-Salvador ◽  
Agustín Millares ◽  
Joris P. C. Eekhout ◽  
Carmelo Conesa-García
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Semi Arid

This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.

scholarly journals Climate Change impacts the <i>Water Highway</i> project in Morocco

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil El Moçayd ◽  
Suchul Kang ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by a significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient decreasing from the North to the South. In order to redistribute water, a project is proposed to transfer 860 million m3 per year from the wet north to the arid southern regions, {Water Highway}. The present study aims to address the viability of the project including the effects of climate change in the watersheds located in the North. We perform Regional Climate Model (RCMs) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and following two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation is assessed and the decrease of available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5 the project is likely unfeasible. However, under the RCP4.5 a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on the Water Highway project in Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1467-1483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil El Moçayd ◽  
Suchul Kang ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Highway Project

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient, decreasing from the north to the south. In order to redistribute the available water, a project has been proposed to transfer 860×106 m3 yr−1 from the wet north to the arid southern regions, namely the “Water Highway” project. The present study aims to address the viability of the project after accounting for the impacts of climate change in the watersheds located in the north. We perform regional climate model (RCM) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and assuming two different emissions scenarios – RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation and temperature are assessed, and the decrease in the available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5, the project is likely not feasible. However, under the RCP4.5, a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand in the north.

scholarly journals Projections of the Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian electricity sector based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of IPCC-AR5

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho ◽  
Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior ◽  
E. Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins
Keyword(s):  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Interconnected System ◽  
Model Soil ◽  
Natural Energy ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract. The Affluent Natural Energy (NAE) of Brazilian hydroelectric exploitations that comprise the National Interconnected System (NIS) was obtained from the projections of global IPCC-AR5 models for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The analysis considered the periods from 2010 to 2039, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2098, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in relation to 1950–1999. Streamflows were generated for 21 basins of the National Interconnected System (NIS) by using the hydrological model Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP). The model was initialized by bias-removed monthly precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and estimated potential evapotranspiration using Penman-Monteith method. Streamflows in the other 182 stations of the NIS were obtained using linear regression with monthly streamflow computed by SMAP as predicted variables. NAE was obtained through product between the naturalized streamflow into each station and the productivity from each hydroelectric exploitation. The models projections indicate that the Brazilian hydropower system may suffer reductions in mean annual streamflow on most basins. This decreasing also suggests a reduction in the mean annual NAE values in the NIS. However, on Southern subsystem most models projected increase of annual NAE. This information defines the bounds for potential future streamflow scenarios and it can be used for the adoption of management policies.

scholarly journals How unusual was 2015 in the 1984–2015 period of North Cascade Glacier Annual Mass Balance?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauri S. Pelto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Alpine Glacier ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Accumulation Area Ratio ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Annual Balance

Abstract. In 1983 the North Cascade Glacier Climate Project (NCGCP) began annual monitoring 10 glaciers throughout the range, to identify their response to climate change. The annual observations include mass balance, terminus behaviour, and accumulation area ratio (AAR). Annual mass balance (Ba) measurements have been continued on 7 original glaciers that still exist. Two glaciers have disappeared: the Lewis Glacier and Spider Glacier. Foss Glacier was discontinued in 2014 as it has separated into several sections. In 1990, Easton Glacier and Sholes Glacier were added to the annual balance program. This comparatively long record from glaciers in one region conducted by the same research program using the same methods offers some useful comparative data to place the impact of regional climate warmth of 2015 in perspective. The mean annual balance of the North Cascade glaciers is reported in water equivalent thicknesses to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). From 1984–2015 the mean Ba is –0.54 ma-1, ranging from –0.44 to –0.67  ma-1 for individual glacier's. This is equivalent to the WGMS global average for this period of –0.56 ma-1. The cumulative loss of 17.2 m w.e. and ~ 19 m of ice thickness represents more than 30 % of the volume of the glaciers. In 2015 the mean Ba of nine North Cascade glaciers was –3.10 m w.e., the most negative in the 32 year record, with 2005 the previous maximum loss at –2.84 m. The mean AAR of 3 % was likewise a minimum, previous minimum was 16 % in 2005. The correlation coefficient of Ba is above 0.80 between all glaciers including the USGS benchmark glacier, South Cascade Glacier. This indicates that the response is regional and not controlled by local factors. The similar mass balance losses in alpine glacier regions globally suggest global climate change is the principal driving force.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Mingyang Sun ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Output Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

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