Assessment of Risk and Uncertainty Factors Inherent in Nigerian Highway Project Using Analytical Hierarchical Process

The study presents a framework through which risk and uncertainties in Nigeria highway projects can be appraised using the analytical hierarchical process model. Pairwise comparison matrix was performed on eleven (11) risk and uncertainty factors that affect highway project performance through a questionnaire survey conducted among two hundred and four (204) respondents, which involved various stakeholders in the highway construction industry using Saaty’s AHP rating scale. The relative weights (significance/impact level) of each of the highway risk factors were estimated during the AHP model development. The results in descending order of risk factors priorities are Standard & Regulations (S&R), Construction (C), Project Staff (PS), Project Sponsor (PSp), Design (D), Project Finance (PF), Economic (E), Equipment (EQ), Environmental & Geotechnical (En&G), Site Location (SL) and Subcontractor (S) with impact levels of 16.6%, 14.2%, 13.9%, 13%, 12.7%, 12.2%, 10.8%, 9.8%, 6.2%, 4.2%, and 3.8% respectively. The model was validated using the statistical consistency test, with the model showing a consistency ratio equal to 0.1. The model was then applied to five (5) highway construction projects which had been constructed to predict the ones with the most and least risks. The result was in tandem with that which was given by the project managers from experiences on the project. This study showed that the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) decision support model can effectively be used for risk assessment and prioritization of highway construction projects for efficient resource utilization in Nigeria.

Incorporating Health-Related Criteria for Project Scoring in Massachusetts

Transportation projects can affect health through multiple pathways—for example, by degrading air quality or encouraging active transportation. There is a need to incorporate health considerations in transportation decision-making to achieve health-related community goals. This paper presents highway project scoring criteria that allow for capturing the impact of transportation projects on health. These scoring criteria are organized into five groups—air quality, accessibility, equity, physical activity, and safety—to capture the multiple pathways that transportation interacts with health. The focus of this study was on updating the Massachusetts Department of Transportation Highway Division project scoresheet to incorporate health-related criteria. Evidence base, standards, and data needs based on which each criterion is assessed, as well as limitations, are summarized for each of the proposed criteria. The paper concludes with a discussion on the outcomes of the proposed changes as well as the transferability potential of the proposed criteria.

Factor Influencing Basecamp Location Selection of Highway Projects Based on Spatial Analysis

The highway project has a significant challenge in carrying out its work. The procurement of massive and constant materials is a significant problem. There are problems in basecamp selection: high transportation costs due to the distance to the raw material from the quarry, and on a managerial level, selection of basecamp location is the basis for construction firm management in controlling costs, time, and quality of the project. The literature review has mapped technical and non-technical factors in two decades. However, the lesson learned from historical data as a basis for decision-making is limited—the mileage factor between the quarry to the basecamp and from basecamp to the project site. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence determining the basecamp location for highwayprojects. The research method used is a case study, with a qualitative approach strategy using a questionnaire from experienced parties in similar projects. Analytical Hierarchy Process approach and in-depth interview with the former technical manager of highway project from a construction company were used as a decision support tool. The results showed that a priority of basecamp selection was determined based on the factor of the distance from the base camp to the project site, the distance from the basecamp to the quarry, the plan for independent material production. Apart from technical constraints, licensing and social issues were a factor in the location determination stage. This study contributes to the decision-making model for selecting basecamp locations at the managerial level in a construction company.

The statistical sensitivity of highway project cost to geo-heterogeneity in the tropics

PurposeThe study is carried out to analytically reconnoiter geotechnical index properties of subgrade soils as key variables that shape the cost profile of road infrastructure projects in a tropical geographic setting with starkly heterogenous ground conditions.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Niger Delta region, as a point of reference, data on geotechnical index properties of subgrade soils at spatially dispersed locations for 61 completed highway projects are collated. Exploratory statistical tests were carried out to infer significant associations with final project costs before regression analysis. Regression analysis is principally deployed as an explanatory analytical tool, relevant to quantify the sensitivity of highway project costs to the individual and collective impact of geotechnical variables.FindingsSeveral parameters of expansivity and compressibility exhibited significantly strong associations with the final costs recorded on the highway projects. The statistical analysis further established a cause-effect relationship, whereby small changes in the geotechnical properties of sub-grade soils at project locations, would result in disproportionately large changes in the cost of road construction.Practical implicationsThe study findings provide insight into the sensitivity of road construction costs to geotechnical variables, which can serve as a useful input in financial risk analysis for development appraisal and the generation of location adjustment factors.Originality/valueThe study statistically demonstrates location-induced construction cost profiles, triggered in response to the spatial geotechnical variability and occurrence of problem subgrade soils in the humid tropics, which may be different from those traditionally established in studies of cold and temperate climate soils.

Taking the HIGHWAY to Save Lives on Lake Victoria

Up to one thousand drowning deaths occur every year on Lake Victoria in East Africa. Nocturnal thunderstorms are one of the main culprits for the high winds and waves that cause fishing boats to capsize. The HIGHWAY project was established to develop an Early Warning System for Lake Victoria. Prior to HIGHWAY, weather forecasts for the lake were overly general and not trusted. Under the HIGHWAY project, forecasters from weather service offices in East Africa worked with leaders of fishing communities and Beach Management Units to develop marine forecasts and hazardous-weather warnings that were meaningful to fishermen and other stakeholders. Forecasters used high-resolution satellite, radar, and lightning observations collected during a HIGHWAY field campaign, along with guidance from numerical weather prediction models and a 4.4-km resolution Tropical Africa model, to produce specific forecasts and warnings for 10 zones over the lake. Forecasts were communicated to thousands of people by radio broadcasters, local intermediaries, and via smartphones using the WhatsApp application. Fishermen, ferry-boat operators, and lakeside communities used the new marine forecasts to plan their daytime and nighttime activities on the lake. A socio-economic benefits study conducted by HIGHWAY found that ~75% of the people are now using the forecasts to decide if and when to travel on the lake. Significantly, a 30% reduction in drowning fatalities on the lake is likely to have occurred, which when combined with the reduction in other weather-related losses, generates estimated socio-economic benefits of $44M/year due to the HIGHWAY project activities; the new marine forecasts and warnings are helping to save lives and property.

Fatal remedies. How dealing with policy conflict can backfire in a context of trust-erosion

This article investigates the relationship between policy conflict and trust-erosion. It concludes that in a context of trust-erosion, practices to deal with conflict may backfire and lead to further conflict escalation. The article draws on an in-depth analysis of 32 interviews with key actors in the conflict over a contested multibillion-euro highway project in Antwerp (Belgium). It concludes that while all actors draw on the policy repertoire of “managing public support” to explain the conflict, their perspectives of what it means for a policy to have public support differ. Practices to “manage public support” that made sense from one perspective, contributed to the erosion of trust from those holding a different perspective, thus further escalating the conflict. Practices intended to end conflict proved to be fatal remedies.

Feasibility Study Stage of Highway Engineering in Mountainous Area Compilation of Estimation Quantity Table of Temporary Works

Reasonable estimation of the project quantity in the feasibility study stage of mountain highway project is one of the basis for the preparation of investment estimation. Combined with the practical work for many years, the content and method of the temporary project, safety measures and other engineering quantity table in feasibility study stage of the highway project in Chongqiu District of mountain are introduced. Taking the calculation of the temporary project of Ningxiang expressway as an example, the basic method of calculation of the maintenance and restoration of the construction access road, the bridge and the original road in mountainous area is analyzed. The author concludes that the influence of geological conditions, topography and original traffic facilities should be considered comprehensively when preparing the temporary engineering quantity table.

Stability of a Rock Tunnel Passing through Talus-Like Formations: A Case Study in Southwestern China

Tayi tunnel is one of the component tunnels in the Jian-Ge-Yuan Highway Project located in Yunnan Province, southeast of China. It mainly passes through talus-like formations comprised of rock blocks of diverse sizes and weak interlayers with clayey soils with different fractions. Such a special composition leads to the loose and fractured structure of talus-like formations, which is highly sensitive to the excavation perturbation. Therefore, Tayi tunnel has become the controlled pot of the whole highway project as the construction speed has to be slowed down to reduce the deformation of surrounding talus-like rock mass. To better understand the tunnel-induced ground response and the interaction between the surrounding rock mass and tunnel lining, a comprehensive in situ monitoring program was set up. The in situ monitoring contents included the surrounding rock pressure on the primary lining, the primary lining deformation, and the stress of steel arches. Based on the monitoring data, the temporal and the long-term spatial characteristics of mechanical behavior of surrounding rock mass and lining structure due to the excavation process were analyzed and discussed. It is found that the excavation of lower benches released the surrounding rock pressure around upper benches, resulting in the decrease of the surrounding rock pressure on the primary lining and the stress of steel arches. In addition, the monitoring data revealed that the primary lining sustained bias pressure from the surrounding rock mass, which thereby caused unsymmetrical deformation of the primary lining, in accordance with the monitored displacement data. A dynamically adaptive support system was implemented to strengthen the bearing capacity of the lining system especially in the region of an extremely weak rock mass. After such treatment, the deformation of the primary lining has been well controlled and the construction speed has been considerably enhanced.