scholarly journals The Relationship between Non-Oil Trade and GDP in Petroleum Exporting Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 63-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara
Keyword(s):  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Panel Unit Root Tests ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Strong Causality ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the causal relationship between non-oil international trade and the GDP in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis. A three-variable model is formulated with oil revenues as the third variable. The results show a strong causality from oil revenues and economic growth to trade in the oil exporting countries. Yet, non-oil trade does not have any significant effects on GDP in short- and long-run. It means that it is the oil and GDP that drives the trade in mentioned countries, not vice versa. According to the results, decision makings should be employed to achieve sustainable growth through higher productivity and substantially enlarging the economic base diversification in the future.

scholarly journals The Causality between Capital Formation and Economic Growth in MENA Region

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Maysam Musai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Strong Causality

This paper investigates the causal relationship between gross domestic investment (INV) and GDP for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis for the period 1970-2010. The results show a strong causality from economic growth to investment in these countries. Yet, investment does not have any significant effects on GDP in short- and long-run. It means that it is the GDP that drives investment in mentioned countries, not vice versa. So the findings of this paper support the point of view that it is higher economic growth that leads to higher investment. According to the results, decision makings should be employed to achieve sustainable growth through higher productivity and substantially enlarging the economic base diversification in the future

scholarly journals Investment and Saving Nexus in Asian Countries: Panel Cointegration and Causality

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Maysam Musai
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Panel Unit Root Tests ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Saving Rates

This paper investigates the causal relationship between gross domestic investment (INV) and saving rates for 40 Asian countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis for the period 1970-2010. The results indicate no long run relationship as well as no causalities between these two variables in these countries. The findings are attributed to non stationary deficits or surpluses in current accounts.

scholarly journals The Causality between Education and GDP Growth in Asian Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 28-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Maysam Musai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Educational Investments

This paper investigates the causal relationship between education and GDP in 40 Asian countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis for the period 1970-2010. A three-variable model is formulated with capital formation as the third variable. The results show a strong causality from investment and economic growth to education in these countries. Yet, education does not have any significant effects on GDP and investment in short- and long-run. It means that it is the capital formation and GDP that drives education in mentioned countries, not vice versa. So the findings of this paper support the point of view that it is higher economic growth that leads to higher education proxy. It seems that as the number of enrollments raise, the quality of the education declines. Moreover, the formal education systems are not market oriented in these countries. This may be the reason why huge educational investments in these developing countries fail to generate higher growth. By promoting practice-oriented training for students particularly in technical disciplines and matching education system to the needs of the labor market, it will help create long-term jobs and improve the country’s future prospects.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Growth and Human Capital in Developing Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 55-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Maysam Musai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Educational Investments

This paper investigates the causal relationship between education and GDP in developing countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis for the period 1970-2010. A three-variable model is formulated with capital formation as the third variable. The results show a strong causality from investment and economic growth to education in these countries. Yet, education does not have any significant effects on GDP and investment in short- and long-run. It means that it is the capital formation and GDP that drives education in mentioned countries, not vice versa. So the findings of this paper support the point of view that it is higher economic growth that leads to higher education proxy. It seems that as the number of enrollments raise, the quality of the education declines. Moreover, the formal education systems are not market oriented in these countries. This may be the reason why huge educational investments in these developing countries fail to generate higher growth. By promoting practice-oriented training for students particularly in technical disciplines and matching education system to the needs of the labor market, it will help create long-term jobs and improve the country’s future prospects.

scholarly journals Gas pipeline infrastructure and economic growth of Russian regions: panel cointegration analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 02002
Author(s):  
Alexander Belinsky
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Central Russia ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

The Russian gas supply system is one of the largest infrastructures in the world. It is continuing to develop at a high rate. Modern methodological approaches and software allow to investigate the relationship between the development of energy infrastructure and economic dynamics of the regions. This paper proposes a methodological approach to the evaluation of the relationship “development of gas distribution systems – economic growth”. The evaluation is based on the concept of cointegration and an error-correction models. This approach identifies both long-run and short-run components of this relationship. In this paper we aim to estimate the relationship using annual data of 17 Central Russia regions for the period 1998-2017. The results indicate that this relationship is statistically significant. It allows to apply proposed approach and the obtained estimates to the problems of analysis and forecasting of the domestic gas market.

scholarly journals Panel Econometric Analysis on Mobile Payment Transactions and Traditional Banks Effort toward Financial Accessibility in Sub-Sahara Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 895 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cephas Paa Kwasi Coffie ◽  
Hongjiang Zhao ◽  
Isaac Adjei Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mobile Payment ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Mobile Payments ◽  
Long Run

The financial landscape of sub-Sahara Africa is undergoing major changes due to the advent of FinTech, which has seen mobile payments boom in the region. This paper examines the salient role of mobile payments in traditional banks’ drive toward financial accessibility in sub-Sahara Africa by using panel econometric approaches that consider the issues of independencies among cross-sectional residuals. Using data from the World Development Index (WDI) 2011–2017 on 11 countries in the region, empirical results from cross-sectional dependence (CD) tests, panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) approach indicates that (i) the panel time series data are cross-sectionally independent, (ii) the variables have the same order of integration and are cointegrated, and (iii) growth in mobile payment transactions had a significant positive relationship with formal account ownership, the number of ATMs, and number of new bank branches in the long-run. The paper therefore confirms that the institutional structure of traditional banks that makes them competitive, irrespective of emerging disruptive technologies, has stimulated overall financial accessibility in the region leading to overall sustainable growth in the financial sector. We conclude the paper with feasible policy suggestions.

scholarly journals Arbitrage hedging in markets for the US lean hogs and the EU live pigs

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (No. 11) ◽  
pp. 505-511
Author(s):  
M. Ziegelbäck ◽  
G. Kastner
Keyword(s):  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Monetary Benefit ◽  
Price Adjustments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Economic Interpretation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Price Differences ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
The Eu

  The paper describes an attempt to gain insight into the relationship between cash and futures markets for US lean hogs and EU live pigs, and the opportunity of arbitrage hedging. In doing so, the authors use newer methods of threshold cointegration analysis for time series from 1999 until 2008. Besides the existence of a long-run equilibrium, asymmetric price adjustments can be demonstrated. This is especially the case for the EU live pigs, where price variations of the basis are higher and exhibit lower standard deviation. The results also perfectly show that cash prices follow the futures market more than the other way round. Furthermore, a grid search has revealed that the residual-based threshold in either market is near zero and therefore coherent with economic interpretation. Thus, at least theoretically, arbitrageurs in those markets are able to exploit the price differences between the two markets and reap no-risk monetary benefit. Hence, the results are in line with the statement that “speculating the basis” generates a better return.

scholarly journals Energy Use and GDP in Israel

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cosimo Magazzino
Keyword(s):  
Energy Use ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Subsequent Time ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
The Relationship

The paper aims to study the relationship between energy use and GDP in the period 1971-2007 for Israel with a time-series approach. Stationarity and unit root tests reveal that both series are non-stationary, or <em>I(1)</em>. Moreover, since both series show the presence of a structural break, the Gregory and Hansen cointegration test has been conducted. The results evidence the presence of a long-run relationship. Causality tests reveal that the “conservation hypothesis” emerges, since the causality flow runs from aggregate income to energy use. The IRFs analysis evidences that a shock to the energy use affects GDP for one period, but dies out very quickly. While shocks to GDP create a smaller but significant response in the energy use, although it falls to zero in few periods. Finally, we calculate with an ECM that the total long-run multiplier is 0.95. The energy use will increase to correct the disequilibrium, with 68% of the (remaining) deviation corrected in each subsequent time period. In addition, a one-unit increase in the GDP immediately produces a 0.18 unit increase in the energy use.

scholarly journals The Corruption-Terrorism Nexus: A Panel Data Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nahil Boussiga ◽  
Malek Ghdamsi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Control Of Corruption

<p>Corruption has been increasingly recognized as the major threat to economic development, political stability and peace. It is also acknowledged by international community as the breeding ground for terrorism. This paper examines the relationship between corruption and terrorism in the long run. Previous studies examining the link between these two phenomena used only time series cointegration tests. In this paper, we make use of a dataset for a panel of 123 developed and developing countries over the period 2003-2014. We use Pedroni’s residual-based panel cointegration test and the error correction model-based panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund. In order to obtain more robust results, we use two different measures of corruption which are Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Worldwide Control of Corruption Indicator (CC). The results of both tests reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration. we conclude that corruption and terrorism converge. Our findings corroborate results of previous studies.</p>

Cointegration-causality analysis between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (8) ◽  
pp. 664-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aisha Ismail ◽  
Shehla Amjad
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is two folds: first, to analyze the long-run relationship between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators (GDP growth, GDP per capita, inflation and unemployment) and second, to determine the direction of causality between these variables in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – The relationship between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators is analyzed by applying Johansen cointegration analysis. Furthermore, the causality between terrorism and macroeconomic indicators is tested by applying Toda Yamamoto Granger causality test. Findings – The results show that there exists a long-run relationship between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, the results suggest that there exists a bi-directional causality between terrorism and inflation. The causality between GDP per capita, unemployment, GDP growth and terrorism is unidirectional. Originality/value – There is a lack of research work conducted to analyze the long-run relationship and direction of causation between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators specifically for Pakistan. The current paper fills the gap in the literature by using sophisticated econometric techniques and recent data set to provide the evidence of the relationship between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators.

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