scholarly journals Variabilidad espacio-temporal de las sequías en la cuenca Pacífico Norte de México (1961-2010)

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 185 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Serrano-Barrios ◽  
S. M. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
H. Flores-Magdaleno ◽  
L. Tijerina-Chávez ◽  
D. Vázquez-Soto
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

This article analyses the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in the North Pacific Basin of México between 1961 and 2010, using two drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We used data from 48 weather stations with available data of precipitation and monthly minimum and maximum temperature. In 22 of the weather stations, time series of Piché evaporation were also available. The reference evapotranspiration, necessary to obtain the SPEI, was calculated by means of the Hargreaves equation. Results show that major droughts occurred in the 1980s and 2000s, although there is a noticeable spatial variability across the region. Finally, the potential impact of the atmospheric evaporative demand on drought severity observed by the different drought indices is discussed, and the possible implications for an appropriate risk assessment.

scholarly journals Future drought analysis using SPI and EDDI to consider climate change in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3266-3280
Author(s):  
Jeongeun Won ◽  
Sangdan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Prediction of drought is important for efficient water management, as the occurrence of droughts affects large areas over a long period. According to various climate change scenarios, it is reported that in the future, Korea's climate is likely to increase in temperature with increasing rainfall. This increase in temperature will have a big impact on evapotranspiration. The occurrence of drought begins mainly with two causes: lack of rainfall or an increase in evapotranspiration. Therefore, in this study, the impact of climate change on future droughts is revealed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). These two drought indices with different characteristics are used to examine the trend of future drought, and a drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curve was derived to quantitatively analyze the depth of future drought. Future droughts are projected by applying future climate data generated from various climate models.

scholarly journals Comparison of Some Drought Indices in Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Usama Sameer Nedham ◽  
Ahmed Sami Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The North ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought in Iraq was assessed using three drought indices for two different time periods, past period from 1970 to 2015, and future period from 2016 to 2050 for 4 stations in Iraq. These indices named: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Percentage of Precipitation Anomaly (PPA), and Z-Score Index (ZSI). The main sources of data were the monthly rainfall archive from Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) for past period, and projection monthly precipitation data from Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP4.5) for Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) affiliate to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for future period. The results shown good correlation of among 3 indices, with different rank of them, were lowest rank was 0.85. The three indices refer to were good evaluate the drought severity of Iraq. Found too the best index was PPA during past period, and the significant index was ZSI for the future period. The North of Iraq (Mosul Station) was the least vulnerable to drought from the analysis of the results of the three indices for the last period, where the number of dry seasons were 12 on the basis of the PPA classification. South of Iraq (Basra station) has the highest number of wet season on the PPA rating were (15) season.

scholarly journals Long-Term, Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index for Hawai‘i

Data ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Matthew P. Lucas ◽  
Clay Trauernicht ◽  
Abby G. Frazier ◽  
Tomoaki Miura
Keyword(s):  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Climatic Information

Spatially explicit, wall-to-wall rainfall data provide foundational climatic information but alone are inadequate for characterizing meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or ecological drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is one of the most widely used indicators of drought and defines localized conditions of both drought and excess rainfall based on period-specific (e.g., 1-month, 6-month, 12-month) accumulated precipitation relative to multi-year averages. A 93-year (1920–2012), high-resolution (250 m) gridded dataset of monthly rainfall available for the State of Hawai‘i was used to derive gridded, monthly SPI values for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 60-month intervals. Gridded SPI data were validated against independent, station-based calculations of SPI provided by the National Weather Service. The gridded SPI product was also compared with the U.S. Drought Monitor during the overlapping period. This SPI product provides several advantages over currently available drought indices for Hawai‘i in that it has statewide coverage over a long historical period at high spatial resolution to capture fine-scale climatic gradients and monitor changes in local drought severity.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and drought in Portugal

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1493-1501 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. Martins ◽  
T. Raziei ◽  
A. A. Paulo ◽  
L. S. Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Regimes

Abstract. The spatial variability of precipitation and drought are investigated for Portugal using monthly precipitation from 74 stations and minimum and maximum temperature from 27 stations, covering the common period of 1941–2006. Seasonal precipitation and the corresponding percentages in the year, as well as the precipitation concentration index (PCI), was computed for all 74 stations and then used as an input matrix for an R-mode principal component analysis to identify the precipitation patterns. The standardized precipitation index at 3 and 12 month time scales were computed for all stations, whereas the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI) were computed for the stations with temperature data. The spatial patterns of drought over Portugal were identified by applying the S-mode principal component analysis coupled with varimax rotation to the drought indices matrices. The result revealed two distinct sub-regions in the country relative to both precipitation regimes and drought variability. The analysis of time variability of the PC scores of all drought indices allowed verifying that there is no linear trend indicating drought aggravation or decrease. In addition, the analysis shows that results for SPI-3, SPI-12, PDSI and MedPDSI are coherent among them.

scholarly journals Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 292-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor J. Burke ◽  
Simon J. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract The uncertainty in the projection of future drought occurrence was explored for four different drought indices using two model ensembles. The first ensemble expresses uncertainty in the parameter space of the third Hadley Centre climate model, and the second is a multimodel ensemble that additionally expresses structural uncertainty in the climate modeling process. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), the precipitation and potential evaporation anomaly (PPEA), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and the soil moisture anomaly (SMA) were derived for both a single CO2 (1×CO2) and a double CO2 (2×CO2) climate. The change in moderate drought, defined by the 20th percentile of the relevant 1×CO2 distribution, was calculated. SPI, based solely on precipitation, shows little change in the proportion of the land surface in drought. All the other indices, which include a measure of the atmospheric demand for moisture, show a significant increase with an additional 5%–45% of the land surface in drought. There are large uncertainties in regional changes in drought. Regions where the precipitation decreases show a reproducible increase in drought across ensemble members and indices. In other regions the sign and magnitude of the change in drought is dependent on index definition and ensemble member, suggesting that the selection of appropriate drought indices is important for impact studies.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in the Lake Chilwa Basin, Malawi

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Clement Kambombe ◽  
Cosmo Ngongondo ◽  
Levis Eneya ◽  
Maurice Monjerezi ◽  
Clement Boyce
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressure ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Lake Chilwa ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract Drought phenomena are attributed to water availability deficit that is caused by low precipitation. However, droughts are quite complex and cannot simply be defined on the basis of precipitation as other factors may have an influence. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of droughts in Lake Chilwa Basin, an endorheic lake basin that has recently experienced major recurrent lake recessions. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at six- and twelve-month timescales were used to evaluate drought severity variations from 1970 to 2018, in relation to the recessions. The stationarity difference in rainfall between 1973 to 1995 and 1996 to 2018 and climatological trends were tested using Mann-Whitney and Mann-Kendall tests, respectively. The El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO) influence on rainfall was also investigated. In general, the results show a statistically insignificant decreasing rainfall trend, coupled with statistically significant temperature increase (a=0.05). In addition, both indices broadly detected droughts within similar category ranges and variation patterns, suggesting minimal influence of temperature on droughts compared to rainfall. The study also reveals that not every ENSO event leads to low rainfall in the basin. It is further shown that unlike past major recessions e.g., 1994/95, recent lake dry-ups of 2012 and 2015 were as a result of milder droughts. Moreover, the trigger threshold of lake dry-ups is shown to have shifted; such that average annual rainfall below 1000mm is likely to yield a dry-up in recent times than before, which may be attributable to anthropogenic pressure.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of Droughts over Different Climate Regions using Hybrid Clustering Method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiyoumars Roushangar ◽  
Roghayeh Ghasempour ◽  
Vahid Nourani
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
The North ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract Drought spatiotemporal variations assessment is an efficient method for implementing drought mitigation strategies and reducing its negative impacts. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of short to long-term droughts was assessed for an area with different climates. 31 stations located in Iran were considered and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series with timescales of 3, 6, and 12 months were calculated during the 1951-2016 period. A hybrid methodology namely Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) was applied to obtain the SPIs time-frequency properties and multiscale zoning was done via K-means clustering approach. The energy amounts of decomposed subseries via the MODWT were used as inputs for K-means approach. Also, the statistics in drought features (i.e. drought duration, severity, and peak) were assessed and the results showed that shorter term droughts (i.e. SPI-3 and -6) were more frequent and severe in the north parts where the lowest values of drought duration were obtained. It was observed that the regions with more droughts frequency had the highest energy values. For shorter term droughts a direct relationship was obtained between the energy values and mean SPI, drought severity, and drought peak, whereas an inverse relationship was obtained for longer term drought. It was found that with increasing the degree of SPI, the similarity of the stations of each cluster increased too and the homogeneity of stations for the SPI-12 was slightly higher than the SPI-3 and -6.

Drought monitoring incorporating precipitation and climate variables and its application for future drought projection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeongeun Won ◽  
Sangdan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Drought Monitoring ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Monitoring Method

<p>In drought monitoring, it is very important to select climate variables to interpret drought. Most drought monitoring interprets drought as deficit in precipitation, so drought indices focused on the moisture supply side of the atmosphere have been mainly used. However, droughts can be caused not only by lack of rainfall, but also by various climate variables such as increase in temperature. In this regard, interest in potential evapotranspiration(PET), which is an moisture demand side of the atmosphere, is increasing and a PET-based drought index has been developed. However, complex droughts caused by various climate variables cannot be interpreted as a drought index that only considers precipitation or PET. In this study, we suggest a drought monitoring method that can reflect various future climate variables, including precipitation. In other words, copula-based joint drought index(CJDI), which incorporate standardized precipitation index(SPI) based on precipitation and evaporative demand drought index(EDDI) based on PET, is developed. CJDI, which considers both precipitation and PET, which are key variables related to drought, is able to properly monitor the drought events in Korea. In addition, future Drought severity – duration - frequency curves are derived to project future droughts compared to various drought indices. It is shown that CJDI can be used as a more reasonable drought index to establish the adaptation policy for future droughts by presenting the pattern of future droughts more realistically.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgment: </strong>This study was funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as Smart Urban Water Resources Management Program. (2019002950004)</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: Climate change; Copula; Drought; CJDI; Drought severity-duration-frequency curve</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Temporal-Spatial Variation Characteristics of Drought: A Case Study from Xinjiang, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang An ◽  
Huaxiang He ◽  
Juanjuan Gao ◽  
Qianwen Nie ◽  
Yingjie Cui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

It is of great significance to study the characteristics and change trends of drought in Xinjiang to provide a basis for implementing local strategies. Based on monthly precipitation and temperature data from 95 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, from 1960 to 2018, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated, and the characteristics and trends of drought in Xinjiang were analysed, in details. Furthermore, a comprehensive evaluation index, i.e., Regional Drought Severity (RDS), was proposed to analyse the effects of duration of the drought and the extent of the drought affected area. The results from our study suggested: (1) In consideration of global warming, droughts in Xinjiang have intensified during the past 59 years, and the frequency and range of droughts have increased significantly; (2) During the plant growing season, spring, summer, and autumn, a drying trend was observed, while, a wetting trend was identified for winter season; (3) The drought-prone months shifted from January and December to March-November in the 1970s, and April was identified as a month with the highest frequency of droughts; (4) The meteorological change occurred a period near 1997. It can be speculated that the intensified droughts can be triggered by the excessive temperature rise, through comparing the changes in SPEI and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), before and after the meteorological change; (5) After the meteorological change, the frequency of droughts with different levels had significantly increased, in addition, the drought-prone areas shifted from the north-west to the south-east. The results from this research provide important support for drought management in Xinjiang, also offer scientific basis for the formulation of relevant policies on agricultural and animal husbandry production.

EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON NEW MEXICO PECAN PRODUCTION, PRICE, AND CASH RECEIPTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950006
Author(s):  
JEE W. HWANG ◽  
OKMYUNG BIN
Keyword(s):  
New Mexico ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
High Moisture ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity Index

This study estimates the effects of changes in climatic conditions on local pecan production, price, and cash receipts in New Mexico, USA, for the period from 1964 to 2014. Our primary measures for estimating the effects are drought indices: the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Standardized Precipitation Index. Our results indicate that precipitation is important to pecan yields. Consistent with previous studies, we find the effects of moisture deficits to be more pronounced compared to conditions of high moisture levels. The gains from moderate to extreme wet conditions on cash receipts are estimated to be as high as [Formula: see text]% while the losses from moderate to severe droughts are as high as [Formula: see text]%. Applying these estimates to cash receipts during the years when an actual wet spell and a drought that took place in New Mexico, the values of these effects are [Formula: see text]$12.6 million and [Formula: see text]$59.7 million, respectively.

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