Geospatial Analysis and Simulation of Glacial Avalanche Hazard in Hunza River Basin

Glacial avalanche hazard poses threat to human lives and damage settlements / infrastructures in alpine glaciers mountainous regions. A gigantic ice plus rock avalanche destroyed Gyari military camp in Siachen sector on April 2012 and buried 139 personals. The study focuses on geospatial analysis and simulation of Shishper glacial avalanche of Hunza basin. To simulate the potential glacial avalanche hazard to Hassan Abad settlements, an empirical process based Glacier Avalanche Model; Rapid Access Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) is utilized. The model encompasses avalanche release area and height for the execution of simulation. The model output of Shishper glacial avalanche resulted; a max pressure of 450 Kpa, max velocity of 40 m/s, and the max flow height of 80m, while the resulted surge extent output was 2500m. The potential hazardous Shishper glacial avalanche remains a continuous hazard to Hassan Abad of Hunza valley including Karakoram Highway and Frontier Works Organization (FWO) camp. The study has resulted in identifying the Upper Indus Bain (UIB) being more prone to glacial avalanche hazards because of host factors in general and the anthropogenic factor in particular.

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Simulation of Glacial Avalanche Hazards in Shyok Basin of Upper Indus

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-019-56523-7 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Naseem Gilany ◽

Javed Iqbal

Keyword(s):

Empirical Process ◽

Mass Movement ◽

Rock Avalanche ◽

Host Factors ◽

Mountainous Regions ◽

Military Camp ◽

Conflict Zone ◽

Release Area ◽

Release Height ◽

Movement Simulation

AbstractGlacial avalanche hazards can threaten lives and damage infrastructures in high altitude mountainous regions. In April 2012 a gigantic ice plus rock avalanche destroyed military camp at Gyari and killed 139 persons. Antecedent, the objectives of this study are to simulate and model Gyari camp glacial avalanche with reference to its extent, height, momentum, velocity and pressure and, to simulate and model the other potential glacial avalanche prone areas in Shyok basin. To simulate the Gyari camp glacial hazard and other potential glacial avalanche hazards, an empirical process based Glacier Avalanche Model; Rapid Access Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) is used. The RAMMS model encompasses the variables like avalanche release height and release area for the conduct of simulation. The model output of Gyari glacial avalanche hazard resulted from a max pressure of 2500 KPa, max velocity of 90 m/s, and the max flow height of 40 m, while the resulted output debris volume calculated was 4.3145 million m3. The calibrated agreement was found in extent and height of actual debris in comparison with RAMMS simulated output. The potential hazardous glacial avalanche prone areas of Shyok basin were simulated by RAMMS model after the model being calibrated to the actual incident of Gyari. The study has resulted in identifying the Siachen glacier conflict zone being more prone to avalanche hazards because of host factors in general and the anthropogenic factor in particular.

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The 1513 Monte Crenone Rock Avalanche. Numerical model and geomorphological analysis

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5578 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alessandro De Pedrini ◽

Christian Ambrosi ◽

Cristian Scapozza

Keyword(s):

Numerical Model ◽

Mass Movement ◽

Rock Avalanche ◽

Digital Data ◽

Western Slope ◽

Deposition Zone ◽

Federal Institute ◽

Landslide Body ◽

The Alps ◽

Movement Simulation

The Monte Crenone rock avalanche of 30 September 1513 is one of the most catastrophic natural events in Switzerland and throughout the Alps. The enormous mass of rock that broke away from the western slope of Pizzo Magn or Monte Crenone, estimated at 50-90 million cubic metres, caused the complete damming of the course of the Brenno river, leading to the formation of a basin that extended from Biasca to the Castello di Serravalle in Semione (De Antoni et al. 2016). On 20 May 1515 the basin formed behind the dam overflowed, giving rise to a wave of more than 10 meters high that led to devastation in the territories downstream to reach Lake Maggiore (Scapozza et al. 2015).In this project, we analyze the dynamics of the 1513 rock avalanche, trying to reconstruct the event through a numerical model, calculated with the software RAMMS::Debrisflow (RApid Mass Movement Simulation) provided by the Federal Institute for the Study of Snow and Avalanches (SLF/WSL).The realization of the numerical model was preceded by the reconstruction of the topography before the landslide. This first phase of work, included a geological survey of the landslide body, the analysis of digital data (orthophotos, digital topographic maps, shaded model derived from swissALTI3D) and the collection of previous historical data.The observation of the stratigraphic data obtained from the 701.27, 701.30 and 701.31 boreholes (part of the geotechnical studies for the Chiasso-San Gottardo highway) of the GESPOS database (GEstione Sondaggi, POzzi e Sorgenti) of the Institute of Earth Sciences SUPSI was essential to understand the landslide body thickness and volume in the deposition zone.From the first phase of data collection and interpretation, we then moved on to the actual reconstruction of the digital model of the terrain before the landslide. This operation was carried out using ESRI's ArcGIS software, which made it possible recreating multiple models of the pre-event topography and thus finding the most realistic solution applicable to the subsequent RAMMS model.

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Recurrent rock avalanches progressively dismantle mountain ridges in the Longmen Shan, China, most recently in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1663 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Janusz Wasowski ◽

Maurice McSaveney ◽

Luca Pisanu ◽

Vincenzo Del Gaudio ◽

Yan Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wenchuan Earthquake ◽

Ambient Noise ◽

Slope Failure ◽

Mass Movement ◽

Rock Avalanche ◽

Ground Vibration ◽

Source Area ◽

Slope Failures ◽

Rock Avalanches ◽

Beichuan County

Large earthquake-triggered landslides, in particular rock avalanches, can have catastrophic consequences. However, the recognition of slopes prone to such failures remains difficult, because slope-specific seismic response depends on many factors including local topography, landforms, structure and internal geology. We address these issues by exploring the case of a rock avalanche of >3 million m3 triggered by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmen Shan range, China. The failure, denominated Yangjia gully rock avalanche, occurred in Beichuan County (Sichuan Province), one of the areas that suffered the highest shaking intensity and death toll caused by co-seismic landsliding. Even though the Wenchuan earthquake produced tens of large (volume >1 million m3) rock avalanches, few studies so far have examined the pre-2008 history of the failed slope or reported on the stratigraphic record of mass-movement deposits exposed along local river courses. The presented case of the Yangjia gully rock avalanche shows the importance of such attempts as they provide information on the recurrence of large slope failures and their associated hazards. Our effort stems from recognition, on 2005 satellite imagery, of topography and morphology indicative of a large, apparently pre-historic slope failure and the associated breached landslide dam, both features closely resembling the forms generated in the catastrophic 2008 earthquake. The follow-up reconstruction recognizes an earlier landslide deposit exhumed from beneath the 2008 Yangjia gully rock avalanche by fluvial erosion since May 2008. We infer a seismic trigger also for the pre-2008 rock avalanche based on the following circumstantial evidence: i) the same source area (valley-facing, terminal portion of a flat-topped, elongated mountain ridge) located within one and a half kilometer of the seismically active Beichuan fault; ii) significant directional amplification of ground vibration, sub-parallel to the failed slope direction, detected via ambient noise measurements on the ridge adjacent to the source area of the 2008 rock avalanche and iii) common depositional and textural features of the two landslide deposits. Then, we show how, through consideration of the broader geomorphic and seismo-tectonic contexts, one can gain insight into the spatial and temporal recurrence of catastrophic slope failures&#160; in Beichuan County and elsewhere in the Longmen Shan. This insight, combined with local-scale geologic and geomorphologic knowledge, may guide selection of suspect slopes for reconnaissance, wide-area ambient noise investigation aimed at discriminating their relative susceptibility to co-seismic catastrophic failures. We indicate the feasibility of such investigations through the example of this study, which uses 3-component velocimeters designed to register low amplitude ground vibration.

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Modelación de Crecidas Aluvionales en la Cuenca del Río Copiapó, Chile

Ingeniería del agua ◽

10.4995/ia.2017.7366 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 135 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Rodrigo Valdés-Pineda ◽

Juan B. Valdés ◽

Pablo García-Chevesich

Keyword(s):

Mass Movement ◽

Satellite Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Analysis ◽

Del Rio ◽

Movement Simulation ◽

Rapid Mass

Los eventos extremos de precipitación intensa que se produjeron entre el 24 y 26 de marzo de 2015 en la región del Desierto de Atacama (26-29°S), en el Norte de Chile, dejaron alrededor de 30 000 damnificados, siendo uno de los eventos de mayores magnitudes de los últimos 50 años, y que tuvo un costo de reconstrucción de alrededor de $1.5 billones de dólares. Los flujos de detritos que se incrementaron durante la crecida inundaron gran parte de las ciudades de Copiapó y Tierra Amarilla. Este manuscrito tiene por objetivo modelar la crecida aluvional de marzo de 2015 en la cuenca del Río Copiapó, específicamente en las localidades de Copiapó y Tierra Amarilla. La modelación se lleva a cabo utilizando el modelo Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) que permite modelar la dinámica de la crecida aluvional en dos dimensiones, utilizando las características topográficas de los dominios de modelación. La calibración del modelo fue llevada a cabo satisfactoriamente utilizando datos de alturas capturados en terreno después de la crecida del año 2015. Un análisis detallado del evento hidrometeorológico es llevado a cabo utilizando imágenes satelitales obtenidas desde Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), así como datos pluviométricos e hidrográficos disponibles en la cuenca del Río Copiapó. La simulación de la crecida es reproducida con mapas de alturas de inundación asociados a dos escenarios de modelación. Las alturas máximas de inundación son finalmente utilizadas para el desarrollo de mapas de riesgos en ambas localidades. De acuerdo a nuestros resultados, el modelo RAMMS es una herramienta apropiada para modelar crecidas aluvionales y elaborar mapas de riesgos de inundación para mejorar la gestión de riesgos hidrológicos en cuencas áridas y semiáridas de Chile.

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Spatial Modeling of Snow Avalanche Using Machine Learning Models and Geo-Environmental Factors: Comparison of Effectiveness in Two Mountain Regions

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11242995 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (24) ◽

pp. 2995 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Omid Rahmati ◽

Omid Ghorbanzadeh ◽

Teimur Teimurian ◽

Farnoush Mohammadi ◽

John P. Tiefenbacher ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

Snow Avalanche ◽

Slope Position ◽

Support Vector ◽

Hazard Mapping ◽

Ensemble Model ◽

Mountainous Regions ◽

Avalanche Hazard ◽

Statistical Measures

Although snow avalanches are among the most destructive natural disasters, and result in losses of life and economic damages in mountainous regions, far too little attention has been paid to the prediction of the snow avalanche hazard using advanced machine learning (ML) models. In this study, the applicability and efficiency of four ML models: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), naïve Bayes (NB) and generalized additive model (GAM), for snow avalanche hazard mapping, were evaluated. Fourteen geomorphometric, topographic and hydrologic factors were selected as predictor variables in the modeling. This study was conducted in the Darvan and Zarrinehroud watersheds of Iran. The goodness-of-fit and predictive performance of the models was evaluated using two statistical measures: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the true skill statistic (TSS). Finally, an ensemble model was developed based upon the results of the individual models. Results show that, among individual models, RF was best, performing well in both the Darvan (AUROC = 0.964, TSS = 0.862) and Zarrinehroud (AUROC = 0.956, TSS = 0.881) watersheds. The accuracy of the ensemble model was slightly better than all individual models for generating the snow avalanche hazard map, as validation analyses showed an AUROC = 0.966 and a TSS = 0.865 in the Darvan watershed, and an AUROC value of 0.958 and a TSS value of 0.877 for the Zarrinehroud watershed. The results indicate that slope length, lithology and relative slope position (RSP) are the most important factors controlling snow avalanche distribution. The methodology developed in this study can improve risk-based decision making, increases the credibility and reliability of snow avalanche hazard predictions and can provide critical information for hazard managers.

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A brief communication of shispar glacier surge in 2018, hunza river basin, Pakistan

International Journal of Advanced Geosciences ◽

10.14419/ijag.v7i2.29352 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 124 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Alamgeer Hussain

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing Data ◽

Negative Temperature ◽

Outburst Flood ◽

Driving Mechanisms ◽

Lake Formation ◽

Karakoram Highway ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood ◽

Lake Size ◽

Hunza River ◽

Day By Day

Glacier surging is a common phenomenon in the Karakoram region, but the driving mechanisms, their occurrence and its relation to a changing climate remain are unclear. In this study, we use Sentinel imagery to quantify advancement of the Shispar glacier during a surge in 2018. Results reveal that Shispar glacier starts rapid surging from Jun 2018. The peak surge is in August 2018. Our data reveal that glacier dammed the Hassanabad stream as result lake formation in upstream area and drainage of the lake also blocked. The surging is continuing and size of newly formed glacier lake is also increasing day by day. Currently, the inflow to lake is very low due to low melting (negative temperature) from the upstream glacier. This inflow of glacier meltwater will be an increase in the summer season, which may grow in lake size and could pose threats to downstream settlements and infrastructure (irrigation channels, powerhouses and bridge at Karakoram Highway (KKH) in the case of a sudden breach in the form of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Currently the damages the powerhouse channel and damage the irrigation channel of Aliabad Hunza. This study recommended that there is a need for monitoring of glacier lake size and blockage area using remote sensing data i.e. satellite images and UAV.

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Quantifying the seismogenic impact on mass movements in the Alps in terms of Arias Intensity

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1511 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gisela Domej ◽

Paolo Frattini ◽

Elena Valbuzzi ◽

Giovanni B. Crosta

Keyword(s):

Mass Movement ◽

Time Frame ◽

Mass Movements ◽

Earthquake Catalog ◽

Arias Intensity ◽

Mountainous Regions ◽

Mapping Approach ◽

Triggering Factors ◽

The Alps ◽

Earthquake Data

Earthquakes are &#8211; amongst many others &#8211; one type of triggering factors for mass movements in mountainous regions such as landslides, deep-seated gravitational slides (DSGSD), rockfalls, mudflows, etc. Hence, the emerging hazard would require an area-wide assessment of seismogenic impact to better apprehend the interplay of different triggering factors contributing to mass movement activity. However, seismicity itself is difficult to assess for several reasons. On the one hand, there are various parameters describing ground motion, and not all of them are suitable for area-wide assessments due to their availability or complexity. On the other hand, phenomena such as attenuation and topographic amplification must be taken into account, especially when the region of interest is an orogen.Considering the criteria mentioned above and aiming for a mapping approach ascribing one value of seismogenic impact to one geographic location, we developed a strategy based on two empirical laws approximating Arias Intensity: the first law estimates Arias Intensities for a particular location as a function of earthquake magnitudes and focal depths; the second law corrects these estimated Arias Intensities in relation to the height differences to the nearest channel beds. Finally, we sum all corrected Arias Intensities resulting from different earthquakes in one particular location. Values obtained in this last step do not represent a physical entity; nevertheless, they allow for quantitative assessment of seismic exposure with respect to a given earthquake dataset covering a specific time frame, also allowing for color coding and comparative mapping approaches in GIS for other factors triggering mass movements.In our case study, we assess the seismic exposure of a set of several hundreds of landslides, DSGSD, and rockfalls located in a rectangular area in the Italian Central Alps. In a first step, the area was discretized using a quadratic grid with increments of 1 km in order to assign points of evaluation to the previously mapped polygons representing landslides, DSGSD, and rockfalls. Additionally, to each polygon, a centroid point was attributed to avoiding the loss of polygons smaller than 1x1 km. In a second step, we computed the seismic exposure in each point resulting from two earthquake datasets covering the Alps, including a 500 km wide buffer zone: instrumental earthquake data of the ISC Bulletin covering a period from 1900 to 2019; macro-seismic earthquake data of the SHARE European Earthquake Catalog covering a period from 1000 to 2006.The study serves as a preliminary test for assessing wider areas across the Alps, which either geologically or geographically belong together. We illustrate our mapping approach in a series of maps discussing the effects of the number of earthquakes, magnitudes, distances, topography, and time frame.

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r.randomwalk v1.0, a multi-functional conceptual tool for mass movement routing

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions ◽

10.5194/gmdd-8-8193-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (9) ◽

pp. 8193-8237 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. Mergili ◽

J. Krenn ◽

H.-J. Chu

Keyword(s):

Programming Languages ◽

Mass Movement ◽

Rock Avalanche ◽

R Software ◽

Impact Indicator ◽

Conceptual Tool ◽

Outburst Floods ◽

Digital Elevation ◽

Elevation Model ◽

Indicator Score

Abstract. We introduce r.randomwalk, a flexible and multi-functional open source tool for backward- and forward-analyses of mass movement propagation. r.randomwalk builds on GRASS GIS, the R software for statistical computing and the programming languages Python and C. Using constrained random walks, mass points are routed from defined release pixels of one to many mass movements through a digital elevation model until a defined break criterion is reached. Compared to existing tools, the major innovative features of r.randomwalk are: (i) multiple break criteria can be combined to compute an impact indicator score, (ii) the uncertainties of break criteria can be included by performing multiple parallel computations with randomized parameter settings, resulting in an impact indicator index in the range 0–1, (iii) built-in functions for validation and visualization of the results are provided, (iv) observed landslides can be back-analyzed to derive the density distribution of the observed angles of reach. This distribution can be employed to compute impact probabilities for each pixel. Further, impact indicator scores and probabilities can be combined with release indicator scores or probabilities, and with exposure indicator scores. We demonstrate the key functionalities of r.randomwalk (i) for a single event, the Acheron Rock Avalanche in New Zealand, (ii) for landslides in a 61.5 km2 study area in the Kao Ping Watershed, Taiwan; and (iii) for lake outburst floods in a 2106 km2 area in the Gunt Valley, Tajikistan.

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Glacier-Related Hazards Along the International Karakoram Highway: Status and Future Perspectives

Frontiers in Earth Science ◽

10.3389/feart.2021.611501 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Yongpeng Gao ◽

Shiyin Liu ◽

Miaomiao Qi ◽

Fuming Xie ◽

Kunpeng Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Thermal State ◽

Global Climate ◽

Glacial Lake ◽

Outburst Floods ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽

Drainage Channels ◽

Karakoram Highway ◽

Remote Sensing Techniques ◽

Hunza River

The China–Pakistan international Karakoram Highway passes through the core area of the “Karakoram Anomaly,” whose glaciers have maintained or increased their mass during a period when most glaciers worldwide have receded. We synthesized the literature and used remote-sensing techniques to review the types, distribution, characteristics, causes and frequency of major glacial hazards along the Karakoram Highway. We found that the glacier-related hazards could be divided into direct and indirect hazards, including glacier surges, glacial lake outburst floods, and glacial floods, which are concentrated in East Pamir and the Hunza River Basin. In the past 100 years, hazards from glaciers surges and glacial floods only occurred once and twice, respectively, which appear suddenly, with the hazard-causing process being short-lived and occurring mainly in the summer. Glacial lake outburst floods mainly occur in the spring and summer in the Hunza River Basin. Among these, ice-dammed lakes have the highest frequency of flooding, their formation and outbursts being closely related to the sudden advancement of surge-type glaciers. Under the background of global climate warming, we speculate that the glacier surge cycle may shorten and the frequency of the formation and outbursts in the glacial lakes may increase. In the future, we should combine models and new field observations to simulate, and deepen our understanding of the physical mechanisms of different glacier-related hazards. In particular, on-site monitoring should be carried out, to include the evolution of glaciers subglacial hydrological systems, the thermal state at the base of the glaciers, and the opening and closing of drainage channels at the base of the ice dams.

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Evaluating debris slide occurrence using digital data: paraglacial activity in Chilliwack Valley, British Columbia

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences ◽

10.1139/e09-012 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 46 (3) ◽

pp. 181-191 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

John Barlow ◽

Yvonne Martin ◽

Steven Franklin

Keyword(s):

British Columbia ◽

Mass Movement ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Digital Data ◽

Aerial Photographs ◽

Digital Products ◽

Debris Slide ◽

Mountainous Regions ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Elevation Data

Debris sliding is one of the most important processes acting to transport sediment within mountainous regions. Detailed study of debris slide activity at the basin scale typically involves landslide inventories generated from aerial photographs. However, it has been shown that some types of rapid mass movement can be accurately identified using a combination of high-resolution satellite imagery and digital elevation data. This approach is beneficial as the digital products allow for a more accurate and efficient data throughput into various types of geomorphic analysis. Here, we demonstrate the use of an automated inventory in the geomorphometric evaluation of debris slide initiation for the Chilliwack Basin, British Columbia, Canada. Our results indicate that the occurrence of debris sliding is primarily determined by topographical controls. For basins that are in equilibrium with the existing climate, the frequency of debris sliding should demonstrate a strong relationship to bedrock geology as the production of unconsolidated materials available for failure is a function of weathering rates under these conditions. The lack of bedrock control within the Chilliwack Basin suggests a state of paraglacial relaxation, wherein glacial deposits dominate the sediment cascade within the area. Therefore, topographic parameters can be used to discriminate the location of metastable slopes where debris slide erosion will be active. The use of digital data in the characterization of debris slide occurrence would seem to be a viable alternative to the more traditional methods.

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