scholarly journals Vector model of error correction in modeling the relationship between bank lending indicators and the growth rates of the Russian economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-154
Author(s):  
Dmitriy Y. Ivanov ◽  
Tali Mahdi Mohammed Tali
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Functional Dependence ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Vector Model ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Russian Economy

The article discusses the problem of modeling the functional dependence of the volume of loans issued and the growth rate of the Russian economy. The relevance of this study is due to the need to identify the factors affecting the growth of the indicator of real gross domestic product. The analyzed domestic and foreign sources do not provide a single set of factors affecting the growth rate of the national economy, highlighting financial mechanisms, production processes, lending volumes to individuals and legal entities, investment activity, etc. The article notes the problem of the formation of a multifactor model of the influence of various parameters on the indicator of the growth rate of the national economy. The process of modeling the functional dependence of GDP on the elements of the influence vector is complicated by the specifics of statistical data. In order to avoid such problems associated with series cointegration, a vector error correction model was proposed. The model was tested on statistical data of organizations in the banking sector and enterprises of the real sector of the Russian economy. It was revealed that under the existing conditions of organizing the lending process, the banking system works not so much to increase production volumes as to maintain the level of the financial condition of economic entities (maintaining the level of liquidity and increasing financial investments), while not contributing to a change in the overall structure of the Russian economy. The developed vector model of error correction makes it possible to measure deviations from equilibrium and the rate of its recovery, which indicates the greater efficiency of this technique. At the same time, the above results allow us to conclude that in the presence of a positive relationship between the volume of lending and the main indicators, the degree of influence of lending on economic growth is generally insignificant

scholarly journals Financial Resources for the Growth of the Russian Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
V. I. Filatov
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
National Production

The article deals with the formation of financing mechanisms for the dynamic growth of the Russian economy, focused on ensuring the country's global economic and technological competitiveness in the long-term period. The transition to sustainable, dynamic development in modern Russian conditions is associated with implementing a deep structural and technological modernisation of the national economy. It should be focused on further improving the country's infrastructure and expanding the existing sectoral structure of the Russian economy based on advanced development of the production of modern machinery and equipment for a wide range of sectors of the national economy. One of the independent priority of structural modernisation is the accelerated development of technologies of a new technological order (NBIK technologies) and the creation of production facilities to produce new types of high-tech products to diversify exports and increase the global competitiveness of the Russian industry. The solution to this problem involves a significant increase in investment activity in the economy, at least by a third (at least 10 per cent of GDP). In the current conditions, the rise in investment activity should face several restrictions. First, with the weakness of the Russian national production of investment equipment, which can be overcome through imports, but most importantly, through the development of its own production of machinery and equipment in the national industry's structural modernisation. Second, the weakness of the national financial system, which is reflected in the lack of long-term savings and the low level of monetisation of the national economy. For overcoming this limitation, it is proposed to form a special investment circuit based on a targeted credit issue to finance investment projects. The conditions and limitations of using the target credit issue to finance economic growth are considered.

The prospects of Russian economic growth recovery (Proceedings of the roundtable discussion at the XXI April international academic conference on economic and social development)

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-50
Author(s):  
N. A. Akindinova ◽  
M. P. Dabrowski ◽  
A. A. Shirov ◽  
D. R. Belousov ◽  
I. B. Voskoboynikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Roundtable Discussion ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Academic Conference ◽  
Policy Measures

The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national projects aimed at boosting growth are likely. In addition to that the panel participants specified key factors affecting productivity and output trends in Russia, suggested ways to support economy in the course of “coronacrisis”, and pointed out to economic policy measures that could accelerate economic growth.

TRENDS AND PROBLEMS OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN RUSSIA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Магомед Русланович Таштамиров
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Dynamic Data ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Current Stage

Исследование вопросов обеспечения инвестиционной привлекательности национальной экономики выступает актуальной задачей в условиях ухудшения экономической конъюнктуры и нарастания международной напряженности. Цель статьи - определить основные особенности инвестиционной привлекательности национальной экономики России для внешнего инвестора. Представлены показатели, характеризующие инвестиционную активность российской экономики; рассмотрены динамические данные, отражающие негативные тенденции в развитии инвестиционной привлекательности России; выявлены основные проблемы и факторы, оказывающие негативное влияние на инвестиционную позицию России на современном этапе. The study of issues of ensuring investment attractiveness of the national economy is a pressing task in the context of deteriorating economic conditions and increasing international tensions. The purpose of the article is to determine the main peculiarities of investment attractiveness of the national economy of Russia for an external investor. Indicators characterizing investment activity of the Russian economy are presented; Consideration of dynamic data reflecting negative trends in the development of investment attractiveness of Russia; Main problems and factors that have a negative impact on Russia 's investment position at the current stage have been identified.

scholarly journals Shadow Investment Activity as a Factor of Macroeconomic Instability

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 83-90
Author(s):  
Zolkover Andrii ◽  
Marin Georgiev
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Functional Dependence ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Market Mechanism ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Nonlinear Functional ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of countering shadow activities in the context of ensuring macroeconomic stability. The main purpose of the study is to determine the acceptable level of investment transactions with signs of fictitiousness, which corresponds to the balance between the level of shadowing of the national economy and its macroeconomic stability. The relevance of this scientific problem is that the shadow investment activities distort the market mechanism and make it impossible to attract financial resources for expanded reproduction in the country. The research of shadow investment activity in the paper is carried out in the following logical sequence: the dynamics of the level of shadowing of Ukraine’s economy, its macroeconomic stability and volume of investment activity with signs of fictitiousness are analyzed, the forms of functional dependence between the analyzed indicators are determined. national economy and maximizing its macroeconomic stability. Methodological tools of the research methods were linear and nonlinear regression analysis, iterative method of Brown-Robinson, which is the basis for solving the problem of game theory. The study period is 2010-2019. The paper proves the existence of nonlinear functional dependence of the level of investment operations with signs of fictitiousness on the level of shadowing of the national economy and its macroeconomic stability. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the volume of investment activity with signs of fictitiousness at 14.76% of GDP is achieved by increasing macroeconomic stability to 0.840 shares and reducing the shadowing of the national economy to 36.30% of GDP. The results of the study can be useful for the executive branch in the formation of public investment policy aimed at improving the quality of the business environment, reducing administrative burdens, and increasing investment demand from foreign investors. Keywords: macroeconomic stability, shadow economy, shadow investment activity, optimization model, game theory.

scholarly journals Statistics on the Industry Structure of the Russian Economy and its Optimization Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-36
Author(s):  
O. V. Morozov ◽  
M. A. Vasiliev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Industry Structure ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Optimal Size ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

This article describes the results of econometric research and optimization of the industry structure of the Russian economy. The results of modern domestic research on this topic show that the task of establishing theoretically justified quantitative criteria for optimizing the structural composition of multicomponent (discrete) social systems remains beyond due attention and not only should, but can be solved. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the optimal size, to establish a measure of a harmonious combination of the sectoral components of the domestic economy and, on their basis, to develop an actual orientation of the structural economic policy of the Russian state for the foreseeable future.Materials and methods. The theoretical foundations of the study are developed on the basis of the authors’ preferences regarding the results of conceptual and applied developments of domestic scientists in the field of structural analysis of systems. The methodological basis of the research consists of works on the structural organization of systems, the concept of structural harmony of systems, the dialectic of harmony, the modular theory of society, and econometrics. The analysis of parameters (indicators) of the component composition of the domestic economy was carried out on the basis of statistical data of ROSSTAT for 2018. The assessment of the export-import potential of the domestic economy is based on statistical data on the cost of output of goods and services for 2014-2018. Econometric methods of processing the initial data and tabular methods of visualizing the results of the study were used. Standard Microsoft Office application software packages were used to solve the research tasks.Results. The theoretical foundations, the procedure and algorithms for studying the structure of multicomponent (discrete) systems are presented. The criterion (maximizing the structural potential of the development of the system under study) is determined and a quantitative model for optimizing their structure is constructed. On the basis of the model, the optimal scales of the structural components (branches) of the domestic economy are determined. According to the statistics for 2018, reflecting the resource capacity (employment, fixed assets, number of organizations) and the results of activities (value added, investment activity), econometric calculations of the relative (in comparison with the entire economy) sizes of the Russian economy sectors were made. Comparison of actual and model (optimal) indicators of the magnitude of domestic industries as a way to detect non-optimality (the discrepancies) of its structure, shows the path of transition from its actual status to “the best” structure which describes a quantitative model of optimal combination of scale of its industries.Conclusion. Based on the quantitative model of optimization of the industry structure, the unbalanced nature of the industry structure, the need for harmonization of the industry composition and, thus, the presence of structural reserves for economic growth of the Russian economy are shown. Optimization of the scale of industries is the formation of structural conditions for a more efficient functioning of the Russian economy; it can be recognized as a macroeconomic condition and a strategic reserve for the economic growth.

Foreign Direct Investments: The Indirect Way to Economy

2007 ◽  
pp. 63-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Navoi
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Methodological Aspects

The article analyzes the situation with attraction of foreign direct investments (FDI) into the Russian Federation. Sharply increased inflow of international financial resources into national economy has highlighted the problem of definitions, the reasons of this phenomenon and its economic contents. The article considers methodological aspects and economic essence of modern FDI. Special accent is made on the estimation of the situation with their attraction into Russia, FDI structure and effectiveness. The conclusions about basic directions of the increase of their effectiveness in the Russian economy are formulated.

2008 Economy Results: The End of the "Fat" Years

2009 ◽  
pp. 4-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Zamaraev ◽  
A. Kiyutsevskaya ◽  
A. Nazarova ◽  
E. Sukhanov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Basic Change ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World

The article analyzes the current economic conditions in Russia. Succession, distribution and the transmission mechanism of the world financial and economic crisis to the Russian economy are considered in this article as well as the changes in the banking system, share and housing markets. Production, consumption and investment on the boundary of 2008-2009 are described. The conclusion about the basic change of conditions of national economy development is presented.

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